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5th November Today Pinpoint worked with Pagano again. Pinpoint (Jenny) led by a length most of the way until they ‘waited’ for Pagano to come almost upsides and then shaken up drew away again to win the gallop by a length, in 36.93 for the final 3. John Dekeyser (top work rider) rode Pagano and although the gallop did not look much from the sidelines he was clear that Pinny continues to improve. He tells me that Tucker has been gelded which may lead to some improvement in his form next season. He was beginning to run races his way, rather than as requested. Although Sky Quest’s was the most important sale this week ;-(, Fairmile was also sold at Tattersalls yesterday. He fetched 280,000 guineas (£294,000) to race in Dubai over the winter, and perhaps come back to England next summer for Listed and Group races? The horse that won the Cambridgeshire, Formal Decree, was also sold, this time privately to a member of Sheikh Mohammed’s family, also to race in Dubai. No doubt he will go for the top 10-12 furlong Group races, with an expectation of winning one. The selling price is reported to be around £800,000 !! I prefer to think that Pinny is not worth anything like those sums, as I only want to keep him to race for as long as he stays healthy and enthusiastic. Whilst selling good horses may make sense to some people in terms of covering costs or making way for the long dreamt of classic winner, it is not my idea of what the sport is about.
The Official Handicapper had Pinpoint too low, on his scale, and is struggling to catch up. The Racing Post and Timeform are also cautious in conceding Formal Decree and Blue Bajan the degree of improvement they almost certainly demonstrated at Newmarket, and therefore Pinpoint’s rating is held down. The Racing Post handicapper sees steady progression. Timeform are typically confused, they now even describe Pinpoint as acting on Good/Firm ground after Newbury. JW’s number cruncher reacts to the improved form with a 109 (107 timefigure), the ratings solely dependant on “best-fit”. I think Pinpoint demonstrated in the Victoria Cup, over an inadequate distance, hampered to the tune of 3-5 lbs, that he should be capable of 110 on my scale, over 8 or 9 furlongs. He is getting there. 3rd October He was due out second lot this morning but did not canter as he is still getting over his race in The Cambridgeshire. There was some minor damage to his troublesome off-fore, but he should soon get over that. He still had stiff hamstrings this morning, and may take another day or two to get over them. The handicapper did not raise him for his third in The Cambridgeshire, which is good. His next run will be off a mark of 100. 1st October - The Cambridgeshire, Newmarket Third in the most prestigious handicap of the British Turf season can’t be bad, can it? This time he was immediately tucked away near the back. The field initially split into two groups, but they quickly came back together down the middle of the track with only Spectait detached, racing along the far rail. The pace was fierce, partly because there was always a danger of Spectait getting clear. Smart Enough spearheaded the main pack and Pinny was in exactly the right place, 6-8 lengths back, directly behind the leaders. He was tucked away so well that it is impossible to see him on the videos until halfway. Ted pushed him along quite early in the race, but from halfway he made steady progress. By three furlongs out he could be seen in touch and gaining on the leaders, apparently going best of all. It was only when Ted started his effort to get passed Smart Enough that the winner Formal Decree could be seen suddenly making ground quickly, having chased Pinny through the race. FD soon went passed and into a clear lead. Pinny, by then in daylight and tiring, just stayed on at the one pace. Blue Bajan came passed up the final climb, and Take A Bow (beaten a neck in 2004) made up ground to almost take third place off us on the line. Smart Enough was five lengths back in fifth. Fairmile half way down the field was beaten 20 lengths. Ted said that he thought he was going to win until FD loomed alongside. The ground was very sticky, and although he acted well enough on it, it was not ideal. It particularly suited the 10-12 furlong mudlarks, which Pinpoint is not. There was an owners huddle with Walter in the unsaddling enclosure afterwards. Walter felt that the ground had not helped Pinpoint. He was optimistic about further progression. The inevitable question “is this the end for the season?” was soon asked. To my surprise Walter was keen to come back to Newmarket at the end of October, assuming the horse comes out of the race well. There may also be an intermediate outing, again at Newmarket, at the Champions meeting. More joy to my ears Walter is planning to keep him to handicaps for now. Many good racehorse careers are blighted by going into Listed/Group company too early and not quite making the grade, but in the process ruining the handicap mark. My guess is that the handicapper will assume Pinpoint ran to his future rating of 100, in which case Take A Bow will go up 2 lbs, Blue Bajan 4 lbs and Formal Decree 10 lbs or so (12 lbs above his Newbury/Cambridgeshire rating). He could take a harsher view, because the fifth was five lengths further back, but he may be reluctant to put Formal Decree up more than that. Last year Blue Monday went up 9 lbs for winning by 2 1/2 lengths. Looking back there has to be optimism gained from the way Pinny travelled in the race. He was one of few horses who made significant ground midrace against a very strong pace. Walter seems certain that the sticky ground was a hinderance. He would handle sloppy ground better. Ground just on the easy side of Good is best because he can quicken well off that ground. Personally I think that Ted made his effort too soon in the Cambridgeshire. He could have waited at the back another furlong at least. This is what Jamie Spencer did behind him on FD. Perhaps Ted was worried that the front runners would get too big a lead. It is easy in hindsight to know that the danger was behind him, rather than in front. Channel 4 showed a charming seven minute feature on Pinpoint and Fairmile in the run up to the race. It included Pinpoint being led around the yard by Walter with his five year old daughter Claudia on Pinny’s back. Walter explained Pinny’s background, nature and lifestyle to Simon Holt with views of him cantering up the gallops, in the field and in the Newbury race. Some photographs from Cambridgeshire Day. One lap of the paddock only. He had less time to get wound up on this occasion and was comparatively calm. Coming back to unsaddle. Ted thinking about what might have been? The start of the post mortem. Blue Bajan in the background. 29th September This morning he did the normal pre-race four furlong breeze from the barn, moving on passed his lead horse in the final furlong. He is in fine shape. I think the best he has been. The ground has gone to Soft which is not a problem, but it might be a problem for some of the opposition. Already Boule D’Or, Cesare and Dark islander have dropped out and Seulement, one of the reserves is in. Good/Soft would probably be ideal over 9 furlongs. Tomorrow is expected to be a dry day at Newmarket. Danny the Farrier is pleased with his feet. He has used a special substance to help secure the shoes to the hooves, and another one to protect the hooves. No expense spared. Channel 4 came to film on Thursday. Along with the usual stuff they filmed Pinpoint and Sky Quest in their field mud rolling etc. I am not sure whether it will be shown on the Morning Line or early in the afternoon tomorrow. 28th September The 48 hour declarations are out and Pinpoint is safely amongst them. He is drawn in the middle, 16th of the 35 runners. It is impossible at this stage to say whether there will be any draw bias. In a field this big they may split into two or three groups. I have little idea how many front runners or “pressers” there are in the race but it seems that Smart Enough will try to make all from stall 8. Dunelight (stall 19) is, I know. another front runner and Kamanda Laugh (stall 5), My Paris (stall 15) and Rocamadour (stall 2) usually run prominently. So the best pace may be centre to stand side. Which is fine. If the quickest ground turns out to be on the far rail Ted should be able to get him over there as well. As it is expected to rain tonight and both rails will get wear today and tomorrow, they may all come down the centre on Saturday. That would be ideal. Pinpoint is best priced 12/1 with the sponsors Totesport, 11/1 with Bet365 and 10/1 generally. Whether these prices are value I really don’t know. The race is generally regarded as a cracker in racing circles, with quite a few improving horses, all closely handicapped, and expected to go on into pattern races next year. But it could all look so different come 4pm on Saturday. There are plenty of outsiders with a chance. The race was won by 100/1 Spanish Don in 2004 (current Racing UK competition answer). Anyway I would not swap his chance for any other horse in the race at this point. 26th September He is in very good shape with a stick-on shoe back on the off-fore. This morning he came up the gallops in a typically sedate canter not asked to catch a lead horse. He worked well with Cool Hunter on Saturday. Now it is just about keeping him ticking over and happy. His minder Sky Quest runs at Lingfield tomorrow. There are three other horses from the stable running there. In order to minimise the time Pinpoint is left without his minder there is talk that Sky Quest will go separately so that he is away for the absolute minimum time !! Fairmile seems to be coming in for support on Betfair. He handles some give in the ground well enough as he showed on the day of the Sandown deluge. While I was on my sodden way home Fairmile was a hampered short head second in the 10 furlong handicap. Walter appealed against the Stewards decision that South O’The Border keep the race, and their decision was reversed. Later Fairmile completely failed to handle heavy ground at Doncaster, and was tailed off. Channel 4 are coming to the Stables on Thursday to do a piece about Pinpoint and Fairmile. I was encouraged to come along. A few owners hanging around might lead to an interview. I think I had better stay away. :-)) 25th September Pinpoint is out first lot tomorrow so whatever was amiss did not last long. The weather has been awful in East Anglia today with the Great Yarmouth area flooded after 2 to 3 inches of rain. Newmarket had half an inch and the going is now described as Good/Soft. That is fine for Pinny and it shouldn’t change much by Saturday. So no more weather forecasts. :-) The five-day declarations came out today with Pinpoint around 22nd in the list, after penalty and weight-for-age adjustments. So he has comfortably got into the race. The best ante-post prices obtainable are - 6/1 Smart Enough, 9/1 Pinpoint and Fairmile, 11/1 Spectait and Formal Decree, 12/1 Charlie Cool, 14/1 Cesare, 20/1 bar. 24th September There was a minor scare on Friday when he pulled out slightly lame on the near fore. Jenny knowing him so well felt the difference. Another rider may not have noticed. He had three new shoes fitted on Thursday including replacement of the stick-on with a normal shoe. This seemed to be the problem although there was the usual debate about stones in his hoof etc. Jenny, Jimmy, the farrier Danny Smith and Walter went through the usual staring and quiet discussion as he walked round and round and round. The atmosphere grew reasonably relaxed about it, except with a certain blogger :-o Anyway later in the day I noticed that he had been laid a little on Betfair going out from 12 to 15 or so. Only for very small money. If you go to The Cambridgeshire on Betfair and click on Pinpoint you will see the little wiggle on the graph. I thought it was interesting that someone thought it was worth laying him at that moment. Fairmile shortened at the same time. It was only a temporary glitch though. When this is all over I think I will look for a book on curing paranoia. I think that he will have done his last piece of fast work yesterday or more likely this morning. Meanwhile the weather seems to be in our favour. The forecasts keep showing rain missing Newmarket, but they got plenty of rain on Friday, changing the ground to Good They also had more rain today with more forecast on Monday and Wednesday, and a generally unsettled outlook. 20th September Sir Gerard is being reported a non runner in The Cambridgeshire due to a foot problem. Pinpoint is now second favourite at 10/1, with Smart Enough favourite. Formal Decree has been backed, probably as a consequence of todays Tom Segal Weekender column. I have read many opinions about Saturdays race. Both Charlie Cool and Formal Degree have supporters expecting them to beat Pinpoint with a 4 lb advantage next time. Personally I cannot see either of them having the pace to trouble Pinny, if he gets his optimum conditions. There are plenty of other dangers though. Charlie Cool only went up 3 lbs, Formal Decree 2 lbs and Dansili Dancer 1 lb for future handicaps. The handicapper seems to have assumed a Pinpoint length and a half advantage, rather than taking the 3/4 length winning distance at face value. Which seems rather unfair. 19th September He has come out of the race really well. No signs of stiffness, soreness, cuts or bruises. This morning he looked quietly pleased with himself, nudging Sky Quest to walk a bit faster whenever the pace did not suit his lordship. Usually he is so languid at home that even this would be regarded as too much effort. Up the gallops he did a sedate 45.64 for the final three, and made it look even slower, again following Sky Quest. Apparently Sky will have a more serious piece of work tomorrow with Fairmile, then he is booked for Lingfield on Wednesday 27th. Jim would not be drawn on who he thinks would win out of Fairmile and Pinpoint in the Cambridgeshire. You know the stock trainer type reply - they have never worked together and they are two different sorts of horses..... How often have you heard that one? However he did genuinely look as if he was thinking about it and could not split them while he was saying it. ;-) For the record Fairmile would work better at home, most of the time. You would usually not be impressed with Pinpoint’s work on the home gallops. To me Fairmile seems to be a 10-11 furlong staying type. Pinpoint has shown more speed at the track and 9 furlongs will be ideal. The Official Handicapper has put Pinpoint up six pounds to a mark of 100. First thought is that this seems like too big a hike. Seven horses finished within three lengths and on the basis of 2 lbs per length he would have to raise six of them. I thought Pinpoint would go up four pounds. Personally I rate the performance roughly on a par with the Salisbury win and the Victoria Cup. The Racing Post has it 1 lb above the Victoria Cup, where of course he was badly hampered. Timeform have it 4 lb better than the Victoria Cup but only 1 lb better than Salisbury. Perhaps the most accurate way of putting this is that the handicapper is catching up with the rest of us. Maybe he has concluded that these horses have been rated to low, as a group, and he has now put that right. Which is fair enough if Charlie Cool has gone up 4 lb and the others commensurately. Whatever, Pinpoint carries just a 4 lb penalty in The Cambridgeshire. 16th September - John Smith Stakes, Newbury Of course he won the race, didn’t he? It is all a bit of a daze now. Maybe I should watch the video yet again. Here are a few photos. Jenny and Tony trying to manoeuvre Pinpoint into the paddock, and travelling head lad Alan looking for dangers. When asked how things went Jenny resorts to just one phrase “he is a complete nightmare”. As usual he made no appearance in the pre-parade ring and just one lap of the paddock. No time for a nice photo. Pinpoint winning from Charlie Cool (yellow) and Formal Decree (green and blue). Pearly King (sixth) is on the right. (Below) Ted Durcan trying to talk to Channel 4 TV whilst returning to the winner’s enclosure. Tony looking quietly pleased. Pinpoint advertising the sponsor’s beer, the second Pendley horse to do so this season after Fairmile’s huge York win. The race itself was not without its problems. After a moderate start he had a bit of bother getting tucked in from his wide draw. At one point I would have been very worried if I could have picked him out on the big screen. Briefly in daylight he started to race too keenly, but fortunately he was soon able to slot in on the outside. For the first half of the race he was contesting the same strip of turf as Pearly King. There was plenty of niggle between them, as Ted tried to keep Pinpoint in and Pearly King and those inside tried to push him out. Eventually Pinny got shuffled back again, So coming into the straight he was near the back, which was far from ideal. Picking up three furlongs from home he made steady headway. Two furlongs out under driving he really put his head down and went for home, barging one or two out of the way in the process. As he came to the furlong pole he changed lead leg, just as he had done at Doncaster, finding some more to go a length up. The only danger then was Charlie Cool but he comfortably held him and Ted was able to ease off a fraction before the line. Looking back at the video the thing that stands out is his willingness, head down and ears back, to give everything. He was born to run in the big handicaps and seems to thrive on the rough and tumble. So now onto the Cambridgeshire, on Saturday week. One of the great handicaps of the British Turf. He will carry a four pound penalty for this win, putting him on a rating of 98. Amazing!! Immediately after the race his odds were cut from 20/1 to 12/1. The best you will do now is 11/1 with Stan James, 10/1 generally. He is third favourite behind Sir Gerard and Smart Enough (both 9/1), Charlie Cool and Cesare are 12/1, Fairmile and Spectait 14/1. It is good company he is keeping. :-) There is no guarantee that the going will be suitable at Newmarket. Currently it is Good/Firm. Showers are forecast on several days but no persistent rain is forecast for East Anglia during the next week. Newmarket drains quickly so rain towards the end of next week is what is required. I would not like to see him going flat out into the Rowley Mile dip on Good/Firm. With the skinny price, doubts about the going and 4 lb penalty I would not advise an antepost bet now. However I do think that he has yet to show his full ability. He is one of those horses who seem to produce more, the more you ask. The Victoria Cup showed that he was well ahead of his handicap mark, even over an inadequate distance. The Cambridgeshire is a notoriously difficult race to win. It takes a Group horse to win it off 98. |
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