 |
May 31st
Pinpoint is 7/2 with Blue Square and Victor Chandler. Which seems about right. Mashaahed is 5/2 favourite generally with Tam Lin at 4/1. If past patterns are anything to go by Pinny’s price will shorten up on course. 8 hours and fifteen minutes to go. Sigh.
May 30th
The Professor of Psychology at the University of Hertfordshire (Hatfield Poly to you and me) did a survey of 2,000 Premiership supporters and found that on average they thought about football 80 times a day. In the case of Sheffield United supporters it was 110 times a day. This Pinpoint supporter can sympathise, but 110 does not seem so many. The prof called it a full-time preoccupation.
Pinny is early favourite with the bookies - 9/4 Ladbrokes and 5/2 Paddy Power. Mashaahed is 11/4 and may well go favourite off-course. Take A Bow, who I think has a fair chance in soft conditions, is 10/1.
Today has been a fairly dry day by recent standards and I think that the ground remains the same as yesterday, Good/Soft and Soft on the bend, 7f to 5f out. There will be plenty of showers about in the area tomorrow and it will be potluck whether we get some hefty ones or not.
May 29th
Pinpoint has six opponents in the final declarations for the Brigadier Gerard Stakes. This is the field :-
1 (6) 10185-4 Papal Bull 25 4 9-5 Sir Michael Stoute J Murtagh 115
2 (2) 115112- Tam Lin 258 4 9-3 Saeed bin Suroor L Dettori 115
3 (7) 1/609- Fire And Rain (FR) 244 4 9-0 Miss E C Lavelle J H Bowman
4 (3) 15134-2 Mashaahed 34 4 9-0 B W Hills Martin Dwyer 110
5 (4) 113423 Mighty 25 4 9-0 Jane Chapple-Hyam J F Egan 112
6 (1) 6138-12 Pinpoint (IRE) 25 5 9-0 W R Swinburn A Kirby 111
7 (5) 4444-32 Take A Bow 17 6 9-0 P R Chamings Jim Crowley 108
All except Mighty are usually held up in their races. Mighty has front run and has been quite close to the pace sometimes. But it looks like a slowly run race is a probability. Manoeuvrings at the start of the race could be interesting if nobody wants to lead. Pinny is drawn on the outside.
Just a routine exercise canter today, following Nordwind up the gallop in a gentle 41.1 for the final 3f.
And some photos from this morning after exercise -
May 28th
The ground at Sandown is now reported to be Soft. This is fine imho, though Walter has gone on record expressing a doubt about Pinpoint on Soft. After the Spring Cup win he was quoted as saying this “He's no good on soft and really wants fast ground with no jar, just as Newbury have produced today.” (Racing Post Quotes).
Was this just a heat of the moment reaction to the win?
The ground for the Cambridgeshire was Good/Soft, following Soft ground the previous day. Pinpoint ran a tremendous race, certainly as good as any run up to the Supaseus defeat. Midrace in the Cambridgeshire he was making good headway going best of all and he was only beaten by two mud loving horses effective at 10f+, the winner a Group One horse in those conditions. My reading of the result is that Pinny was fully at home on the ground.
Will the race cut up due to the going change? Prince Of Light heads North today for the Zetland Gold Cup, on fast ground.
Mighty had one poor run on soft, and has been improving on Polytrack and fast ground. Papal Bull ran badly the only time he has encountered give. Road To Love has been best on a sound surface so far. Tam Lin encountered ground just on the easy side of good at the start of his career but has been running at a high level on faster. Luberon hung badly the only time he has tackled soft.
Take A Bow goes very well on soft (eg Cambridgeshire 4th) and Mashaahed seems to be fully effective on it. Fire And Rain ran OK in the Great Voltigeur on good/soft. Hattan is OK on good/soft and the only time on softer was in the St Leger, a trip too far?
On the basis of what we know Take A Bow, Mashaahed and Pinpoint may be the only horses fully effective on the ground? Most of the field have Royal Ascot engagements, but only Hattan, Luberon, Prince Of Light and Road To Love have alternative entries this week. Tomorrow we will find out which horses stand their ground.
May 25th
A beautiful morning on the gallops. Warm, cloudless and still. Pinpoint (Adam Kirby) worked with Golden Platitude. Going a good gallop from the bottom with Golden Platitude leading by a length the pace quickened about halfway. Pinny was pushed to come up to GP 2f out and then quickly passed to win the gallop by a couple of lengths. The time a very fast 34.63 for the final 3f (approx 34.5 Pinpoint). Don got the same time. This is by some way the fastest we have timed Pinpoint, and the fastest for any horse this year. Back in his field afterwards he was on very good terms with himself.
From the weather forecasts it looks like Sandown will have lashings of rain on Sunday and Monday. Excellent.
The entries came out for the Brigadier Gerard Stakes today. Here they are with Timeform ratings adjusted for Group win penalties and adjusted Racing Post ratings in brackets -
120 [116] Pinpoint
118 [114] Mighty
117 [115] Tam Lin (3 lb penalty)
116 [116] Mashaahed
113 [111] Papal Bull (5 lb penalty)
113 [112] Take A Bow
112 [112] Hattan
112 [110] Prince Of Light
110? [102] Luberon
107 [108] Fire And Rain
? [103] Road To Love (good 2nd to Illustrious Blue today)
May 22nd
Horse racing is full of highs and lows. Very sadly one of the worst things happened today at Pendley. Alpine Reel, a fine racehorse, broke his leg on the gallops and had to be put down. He had just finished an encouraging gallop going clear of Tucker when, on starting to pull up, his offside hind leg broke. Alpine Reel did not see the racecourse until he was four years old but soon made an impact, winning four of his eight races. He was rated 94 with scope for further progress.
Pinpoint and Golden Platitude were following Alpine Reel and Tucker up the gallops. They had to take avoiding action. Pinny is OK. He is on course for Sandown, but needs some rain. Worrying about the going seems a very minor thing at the moment.
May 17th
I was busy watching Rainbow Flame work in blinkers and by the time I focused on Pinpoint he was nearly finished a gallop with Golden Platitude. They were upsides with Pinny being pushed along, but I have no idea what happened before that. He still looks in top shape. 13 days to go. More showers needed.
May 14th
More gentle exercise for Pinpoint this morning. Starting a couple of lengths down on Nordwind he didn’t hurry himself, getting in the way of the horse following him. Pinny finished six lengths down in a modest 41 secs for the final 3f. He looks in great shape and the next two and a half weeks are going to pass rather slowly waiting for May 31st to come around. Tucker continues to progress, working with Count Ceprano this morning, finishing the gallop in under 36 secs for the final 3f.
Take A Bow, who nearly dead heated for third with Pinpoint in the Cambridgeshire, ran well at Windsor last night. He was beaten just a neck in a Listed race, this time by high class Godolphin horse Army of Angels.
May 12th
Things can change quickly in racing. Only a week ago it had barely rained for six weeks in this part of the world. Pinpoint had given us another warning about running him on fast ground. Hot dry runless months seemed to stretch out before us through the summer. Since then it has rained every day. The going down South has gone from Firm to Soft and Pinny is still in very good fettle. So there has been a rethink. He is being entered in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes to be run at Sandown on Thursday 31st May. This is a 10 furlong Group 3 race with a prize fund of £50,000. It is not a race that usually attracts a large field. Last year Notnowcato beat five rivals, on his way to Group 1 glory in the Juddmonte International. At the time that he won the Brigadier Gerard his handicap rating was 112.
Pinpoint will need an untroubled preparation and for Sandown not to dry out too much, if he is to run. Anyway it is a very exciting prospect. In truth there were limited options during the next 3 weeks, a quiet period for Heritage Handicaps, Listed races and Group 3s over 8-10 furlongs. Options at Goodwood and later Epsom are not so attractive in terms of the suitability of the tracks?
The horse beaten a short head by Notnowcato, in last years Juddmonte International, was Maraahel, another one of the middle distance elite. On Thursday Blue Bajan gave Maraahel a good race in the Group 3 Huxley Stakes at Chester, albeit Maraahel had a little extra up his sleeve. Yet another compliment to the 2006 Cambridgeshire form. Yesterday the Newbury Spring Cup third, Heaven Sent, won a Fillies Heritage Handicap at Ascot very comfortably, the third and fourth five lengths back.
May 11th
Pinpoint followed Celebration Song and Tucker up the gallops today 2nd Lot. Starting 3 or 4 lengths down he was more like 12 lengths down at the end. So a moderate exercise canter, in his own time. Tucker went past Celebration Song unextended.
Apparently the handicapper has given Pinpoint a new handicap mark of 111. This is not harsh and perhaps Pinny can still be competitive off this mark, or will it be a Listed race next?
May 10th
Forgot to mention, Pinpoint came out of the race fine. No soreness. Jenny’s attitude is that he is a strong sound five year old who can handle the sort of conditions that he came up against at Newmarket. Perhaps there’s a debate going on about plans?
May 9th
We will probably not know what the handicapper has done to Pinpoint’s handicap mark until next week. I think the handicap marks are adjusted each week after racing on a Saturday? Here are some other assessments, which as I suspected show a range, due to the difficulty of judging the performances of Night Crescendo, Instructor, Ace of Hearts, Langford and Prince of Light.
The CRF computer’s rating is low. It does not know that Supaseus is a well regarded horse who is inconsistent and best fresh, or that the performances of the horses further back are probably better than their recent form. The rating is based solely on best fit with past results. So the CRF rating is 115 and timefigure 108. The Racing Post rating is 116, and they also raise the Cambridgeshire rating to 109.
Timeform take a very positive view and have rated Pinpoint at 120. If this rating is a reliable measure of Pinpoint’s ability he would be in the top twenty 8-9f horses in the country and at a level good enough to win the majority of Group 3 races. However Pinny could be a similar type to Baltic King (also Timeform rated 120), a sprinter I know well, who is capable of epic weight carrying performances in fast run big field handicaps, but has not won a Group race in 13 tries so far.
A couple of photos from Sunday -
May 7th The Stan James Suffolk Stakes, Newmarket 6th May - “The Spring Cambridgeshire”
Pinny was magnificent in defeat yesterday. A whisker away from producing one of the handicap performances of 2007.
There was a group of us standing a few yards before the line and most thought Pinpoint had won. The angle fooled us. If he had kept straight, if Adam had not been suspended at Newbury, if it had rained........lots of ifs. But John Egan deserves lots of credit for a tactically astute performance and Supaseus won with the bit dangling out of his mouth. A race fought out between two horses with next to no steering.
Adam’s first remark in the unsaddling enclosure was that Pinpoint was feeling the ground, ie the fast ground was hurting him. The brisk wind and tendency of the Rowley Mile to dry out quickly had done their worst. So it is possible that you will not see Pinpoint on the racecourse again until the Autumn. Well that was Walter’s immediate reaction in the unsaddling enclosure. Considerations include (a) The improvement he is showing and the level he has reached, and not jeopardising that through injury, (b) Not risking him mentally on fast ground again, i.e. blunting his enthusiasm for racing, (c) Preparation for the big races takes around a month each time and uses up his resources so it is best to avoid entering him in midsummer races only to have to withdraw due to the ground each time. Whilst there is no guarantee of easy ground in September or October, and in our climate some good opportunities may be missed, I am fully in support of putting him away now and not entering races during the midsummer months, if that is what Walter thinks is best for the horse..
Heritage Handicaps are still on the agenda because unlike former days there is no upper rating limit for them. Generally speaking horses rated over 110 just carry the extra, above 9st 10lb, that their rating warrants. In theory George Washington could run in them. The old quotes from trainers about “twilight horses” and the difficulties in finding a race for them are no longer valid. If they ever were. Whether a handicap mark which is too high to win from dictates the future programme is another matter. Listed and Group races often have smaller fields and are run at a slower or stop/start tempo which may not suit Pinpoint as much as the big field handicaps?
For the Official Handicapper, rating yesterdays race looks straightforward. The 3rd, 4th, 5th ,6th and 7th all finished in a bunch, barely 1/2 length between them. Supaseus and Pinny put 3 lengths between themselves and this group. As with a similar result in the Newbury Spring Cup all the Handicapper will have to do is decide if there is a valid reason why he should not put Supaseus and Pinny up the full value for that 3 lengths. If you had the hard heart of a handicapper what would you do? So he is likely to put Supaseus up 7lb or 8lb, depending on what his scale tells him (it looks like 2 1/2 lbs per length) and Pinny up either the same or 1 lb less. I expect Pinny to be put up to 112.
Actually rating the race is not as easy as that for the rest of us. A judgement has to be made about how close Night Crescendo, Instructor, Ace of Hearts, Langford and Prince of Light ran to their ratings. Several factors come into the equation, and you could even assume that every horse apart from Supaseus and Pinpoint ran well below their best, or take a middling view. The time is no help. I ended up with Pinpoint on 119, though if you assume that the 3rd and 4th ran to the ratings, that puts Pinpoint on 121 (Computer Racing Form scale). It will be interesting to see what the Racing Post and Timeform think, and what John Whitley’s computer calculates.
May 5th
Pinpoint is tipped by the Racing Post and the early betting has him around 9/2 joint favourite with Royal Oath.
There was further watering yesterday (7mm) and the race times today suggest ground on the Good side of Good/Firm which is what the Clerk of the Course always said he was aiming for. Only the 2,000 Guineas was run under standard time. So that’s good.
If there is a draw advantage it is only a marginal one. If we had a front runner I would want it to race right against the stand rail, something like Vital Equine and Hoh Hoh Hoh did. But Cockney Rebel raced wide in the stand side group. Dutch Art, Beaver Patrol and Mutamared did well racing near to the far rail. Everybody avoided the centre. The stalls for Pinny’s race are stand side and with 18 runners you would expect them to race in one group down the rail. Prince of Light is drawn next to Pinny in 12 and should give a good early tow. Royal Oath arguably has the worst of the draw in stall 18.
It is probably too much to hope that there are no handicap bandits lurking in the field waiting to rediscover their form. Then there are the improving 4YOs. In any case Pinpoint has a massive task. Only a handful of handicaps in a year are won by horses rated as high as 106. I could only find Areyoutalkintome on the All Weather, Crosspeace at Goodwood and Baltic King in the Wokingham, who managed it during the last year.
May 4th
A solo workout at ordinary pace today. He is in great shape for Sundays race. New racing plates were put on yesterday which went OK. The 18 acceptors include Charlie Cool, Dansili Dancer and Royal Oath. Two horses which are particularly well handicapped on old form are Langford and Ace Of Hearts. Pinny is drawn next to a Mark Johnston front runner Prince of Light in stall 13. Other pacemakers could include Rocamadour (4) and Dansili Dancer (3). Royal Oath is in the outside stall 18.The track was watered on Wednesday (10mm) with another 6mm scheduled for today. The warm and breezy drying conditions at the start of the week have given way to cool cloudy conditions over the last two days.
I expect Pinpoint to be favourite, perhaps at around 5/1?
May 1st
Pinpoint worked with Nordwind today. Starting a length down he gradually came more or less alongside, the final 3f in 36.29 secs, with a fresh breeze against. He looks to have come on in fitness since Newbury.
There are 27 entries for the Suffolk Stakes. They include the two Newbury seconds Royal Oath and Charlie Cool. Royal Oath gets a further 3 lb. Charlie Cool now has the same rating as Pinpoint whereas he was on 99 and Pinny on 94 back in September. Dansili Dancer 4th in September has a mark just 1 lb higher, an 11 lb turnaround in weights must give them hope. There are some interesting new opponents lining up to take on Pinny.
April 27th
Just a moderate exercise canter today. Pinpoint followed Nordwind up from the bottom a few lengths behind, the final 3f in 41 secs. The string are beginning to look a little fitter now though nearly all of the runners are needing the run. Nordwind would have needed the run in the Great Metropolitan and anyway that was a bit too sharp for him. He needs a real test of stamina and is entered in the Chester Cup next.
Pinny is showing signs of knowing he is top dog. Picking grass after exercise he was pulling Jenny around. Then Walter picked up a few handfuls of grass for another horse. Pinny spotted this and decided that he fancied that grass. So off he went pursuing Walter at a brisk walk until Walter had no choice but to turn around and give Pinny the grass. Walter said “you can see whose boss around here” :-)
April 26th
Perhaps time to take stock? With the rise in Pinpoint’s handicap mark and the ratings I could not help but dream about where all this is going? With George Washington back in training Pinny has a bit of ground to make up on the best. :-) But average Group company is not so very far ahead of him now. Not that I am suggesting that he should switch from handicap races while there is a chance of winning again. There are plenty of horses whose handicap marks and careers were messed up by going after glory in Listed and Group races and just falling short. It is quite possible to be raised 10 lb or more in the handicap for just finishing a bit too close to top horses. For an extreme example take a look at Manorbier’s career on the Racing Post website. He was a rapidly improving sprinter who looked to have a great chance of winning a race like the Wokingham or Stewards Cup. Connections got carried away, went for a Group 3 at the Curragh, and he was put up from 82 to 107 in the handicap for finishing 4th to Namid, winning just £1020 in prize money. It took two years for him to come down the handicap and in 22 further races Manorbier never won again. So it makes sense to stick to Heritage Handicaps for as long as possible, unless Pinny improves further and gets an even higher handicap mark.
Here are Pinpoint’s ratings for the last few races. The Computer Racing Form ones are continually adjusting to take account of the latest form, and are therefore the most likely to be an accurate reflection of a performance.
|
At Sandown on Saturday is the Betfred Mile, a Group 2 race. This is Saturdays field, plus a non-entered interloper, with their adjusted current Racing Post Ratings :-
Jeremy 129
Road To Love 129
Final Verse 127
Pinpoint 127
Bahia Breeze 125
Jedburgh 123
Take A Bow 123
Babodana 122
Royal Power 121
Areyoutalkingtome 116
Someone wake me up !
April 24th
Pinpoint had a 4f canter from the barn this morning and is in good shape. I asked Adam Kirby about the way Pinny edged left, right and left in the final 1 1/2 furlongs. Adam did not think it had anything to do with the ground. He said that it was caused by Pinny looking around, including at the crowd? Whatever, it got Adam a three day careless riding suspension. As he switched whip hand back and forth fairly quickly the ban seems harsh. However the stewards expect a rider to stop riding, if necessary, to try to stop interference taking place. It must have been touch and go as to whether a Stewards Enquiry was called.
Pinpoint has been put up to an official handicap mark of 106. The Computer Racing Form rating is 113, currently the same as for the Cambridgeshire. The Racing Post also have him on 113. After a years divergent opinion about the value of his form there is remarkable agreement about the Spring Cup run.
The plan is now to run in the Stan James Suffolk Stakes at Newmarket on Sunday 6th May. It is a 9 furlong Heritage Handicap over the Cambridgeshire course. The prize fund has £50,000 added, so it is a bit more valuable than the Newbury Spring Cup. On the same card are the 1,000 Guineas, the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) and the Palace House Stakes, the first Group class sprint of the season.
April 23rd
As expected Timeform have gone from badly underestimating Pinny to, if anything, overestimating the Newbury performance? They have put his rating up from 106 to 114. I am not fully conversant with Timeforms arcane terminology but 114 could well put Pinpoint in the realms of “smart”. Timeform have rated the race on the 4th/5th horses running to their ratings and seem to be using 3 lb per length.
Apart from Pinpoint, Royal Oath was the horse who impressed me. Not only was he the only horse to give Pinpoint a race (eased a fraction late), but he was getting less weight from our fellow than the others who ran well. Timeform have raised his rating from 101+ to 104 and he is one to keep an eye on.
Apparently Pinny has come out of the race well and is due to canter 1st lot tomorrow.
April 22nd The Bloor Homes Spring Cup, Newbury 21st April
Wow What a performance !! To beat all those progressive 4YOs off a rating of 100 was quite something.
On top of everything else Pinpoint is becoming a “public” horse. The Channel 4 interviews with Walter, the Cambridgeshire feature on him and Fairmile and the runs in high profile handicaps on Saturdays seem to be producing quite a following. I have no other explanation for the betting plunge on him yesterday. 20/1 was available for anyone who wanted it through Friday evening and all of Saturday morning. So an early each-way bet looked quite attractive despite the going worries.There were no tips for him in the press. Every snippet I read in the papers told me that he was better at 10f, or on easier ground etc etc. There were no early moves. Punters seemed uninterested in the 20/1. So it was a surprise to come out of the paddock just before the race to find him at 10/1 and shortening fast into 8/1, having opened at 16s.
The ground was borderline in my opinion. Under pressure Pinny edged left, right and left again, needing Adam to switch his whip each time. He has edged left before, at Doncaster and Newbury, but it was more noticeable yesterday, particularly when he hampered Direct Debit. I would not want to see him running on Good/Firm next time. First time out on Good/Firm was just OK.
From what was said in the winners enclosure the Suffolk Stakes at Newmarket on 1,000 Guineas day is the most likely next target. This is a £50,000 added Heritage Handicap over the 9f Cambridgeshire course.
He will go up by whatever the Handicapper thinks 2 1/2 lengths is worth over a mile. Pinpoint and Royal Oath were clear of a group of six horses that were separated by less than 1 length, so the temptation to rate the race around the third/fourth/fifth is strong. By my analysis of the race Pinny ran to the same rating as now showing for the Cambridgeshire performance on Computer Racing Form, i.e 113. It would be a mistake to think that he had shown much improvement or had run better on the ground yesterday, compared with the sticky ground at Newmarket. I have no doubt that Timeform and some others will come to the opposite conclusion, but they will be playing catch up with his rating and trying to explain that. Whether he will improve further we shall have to see. I think he will, certainly on easy ground and when there is a stronger pace than there was yesterday. He ran well despite the modest early gallop and ground faster than ideal, so the prospects for improvement are good. Even at 5 or 6 lbs higher in the handicap he will not be easy to beat.
Walter and the team at Pendley have done a fantastic job with him and deserve every credit. They have turned a seriously stressed box walker who started his 3YO career slow and laboured on the gallops, into one of the best 8-10 furlong handicappers in Britain.
Here are some pictures of the day.
