 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
The Week Ahead (2nd August)
Sun 2nd - 3.30 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
- 3.55 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 3rd - 3.45 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Tues 4th - Blank
Wed 5th - Blank
Thurs 6th - 6.15 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 7th - 4.00 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.35 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.20 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 8th - 1.10 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Shergar Cup Dash
- 4.05 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only - Shergar Cup Sprint
- 5.00 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 6.40 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.50 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 9th - 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.35 Tipperary - 5f Listed - Abergwaun Stakes
Monday 3rd August - 3.45 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good going. GS 7.7 so there is some juice in the ground.
The most likely front runners are Bel Cantor, Red Cape, Mister Laurel and Malcheek. Tabaret will also be prominent and has the speed to lead. So it looks like plenty of pace down the stand rail.
In a similar race last August Bel Cantor went to the far rail and made all. There would probably be little difference between the going on each side and a repeat of those tactics could have very interesting results.
Mister Laurel was probably flattered by making all down the stand rail Golden Highway at Newcastle. Viking Spirit has been given a chance by the handicapper as he is now lower rated than at any time since 2YO days. That would make him interesting on the All Weather or Soft. He has not produced his best on Good or faster for a long time, though I would not rule it out. Tabaret is in good form but will find a fast run 6f run on Good ground tests his stamina a touch too much. Atlantic Story on the other hand is likely to find things happening a bit too quickly. Kerry’s Requiem gets behind, needs luck with the gaps and has something to find with Mister Laurel. Bond City won this last year off a similar mark and must have a chance. Dropping Capucci back in trip looks like a shot in the dark. Malcheek and Ajigolo are right out of form and would prefer it faster anyway.
Summing up there are plenty of horses in the race that do not appeal for one reason or another. Which leaves me with Red Cape and Bel Cantor. Red Cape because he is in excellent form and everything is favourable. Bel Cantor because sooner or later his attempts to dominate are going to pay off and the opportunity to go to the far side on his own or with a small group is there today. A year ago it proved successful off a mark of 84 on Good ground. Today he runs off 79. A close 3rd in June over course and distance on faster ground and an easy win at Kempton three runs ago suggest that he will come back to something like his best in favourable circumstances. If he doesn’t go to the far side you will know he is stuffed.
Selection - Bel Cantor @ 16/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Bet365pence etc)
Saturday 8th August - 1.10 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Shergar Cup Dash
Good going as the track dries out. GS 9.4
Punters are always suspicious of the Shergar Cup. Foreign jockeys who misjudge the stiff track at Ascot. Jockeys who know next to nothing about the horses they are riding. Team riding. These factors have to be taken into account but a top class jockey who knows the track well can be a big positive.
Lots of pace from Captain Dunne, Mandurah, Fol Hollow and Judge N’Jury. You would think that they will go too fast which will set it up for a closer. The most likely closers are Cheveton, Group Therapy and Buachaill Dona if he tracks the pace in this one. Orpsie Boy is better at 6f on fast ground.
The worry about Cheveton is his very slow start last time following an iffy break the time before. Also he would have stood a bit better chance on yesterdays Good/Soft. However Gerard Mosse is a class act on sprinters and he may well be able get the best out of Cheveton. You would need a better price than the current 5/1 though.
Saturday 8th August - 4.05 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only - Shergar Cup Sprint
There will be more information about how the track is riding, jockey performance and any draw bias by the time of this race.
A wide open 3YO handicap on my ratings. A combination of the stiff track, Mosse and 8/1 lead me towards Kerrys Requiem who has been arriving too late in competitive handicaps on sharper tracks. Kerry’s Requiem is often keen early and held up out of the stalls which often results in a poor start and her getting well behind. Overcome this and she is better than her handicap mark.
Selection - Kerry’s Requiem @ 8/1 (Coral -best price guaranteed)
Saturday 8th August - 6.40 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Based on a very limited Betfair market Blue Square have opened 5/1 Kingswinford whereas in my opinion he deserves to be about 5/2 joint favourite with Fyelehk.
You do not get many ricks in sprint handicaps, so this one is worth a dabble. Everybody else is going 3/1 ish.
Kingswinford only just lost out to The Tatling at Newbury and today’s extra furlong and easier going are both in his favour. Someone is keen to oppose him on Betfair but Richard Hughes is a positive jockey booking and connections would be fools to turn down an opportunity to win this off 73. They may never get another chance.
Selection - Kingswinford @ 5/1 (Blue Square)
Saturday 8th August - 5.00 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm. Another very open handicap on my ratings.
Novellen Lad is an improver who is well suited by fast going. Whilst he does not come out especially well on the ratings I expect him to do better still.
Selection - Novellen Lad @ 6/1 (Betfair)
Sunday 9th August - 3.30 Deauville - 6.5f Group One - Prix Maurice De Gheest
Good/Soft going with some light rain hanging around this morning.
African Rose showed what she can do over 6/7f on easy going by finishing a good second to Marchand d’Or, clear of the rest, in this race last year, then going on to win the rearranged Haydock Sprint Cup. She showed her well being in finishing well despite conditions completely against her in the July Cup. The pace should be good with Lesson In Humility and Naaqoos in the field. A major danger is Naaqoos if he comes back to his Grand Criterium winning form.
Selection - African Rose @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (9th August)
Sun 9th - 3.30 Deauville - 6.5f Group One - Prix Maurice De Gheest
- 3.35 Tipperary - 5f Listed - Abergwaun Stakes
- 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Mon 10th - 4.15 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 7.20 Windsor - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.30 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 11th - 4.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.55 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Wed 12th - 4.20 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.00 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 13th - Blank
Fri 14th - 2.35 Nottingham - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 4.05 Newbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 15th - 3.20 Ripon - 6f Heritage Handicap - Great St Wilfred
- 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - National Stud Stakes
- 2.50 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap - Greys only
Sun 16th - 3.40 Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed - Flying Fillies Stakes
- 4.15 Curragh - 6f Group Three - Phoenix Sprint Stakes
Tuesday 11th August - 7.55 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Soft(Good/Soft) going. GS 7.2 when last we heard. A smattering of rain yesterday.
If the going really is soft the chances of Masta Plasta and Dandy Man are much reduced.
Wednesday 12th August - 4.20 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good going. High draw important.
Efistorm came back to his best at the very moment that I did not analyse the race.
He is still well treated, especially with McHugh doing so well, and has a useful high draw. Last year’s winner Divine Spirit in the next door stall is a worry off a low mark.
Selection - Efistorm @ 13/2 Betfair
Saturday 15th August - 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - National Stud Stakes
Good going. GS 8.0 Drying out a little towards Good/Firm.
Bounty Box the favourite is known to prefer a little ease in the ground so the drying conditions may be against her.
Another lightly raced improving filly may have a better chance. This is Sea Of Leaves. She was last seen at Ayr staying on strongly, over an inadequate 5f, getting involved in a blanket finish for the placings behind Pavershooz. Six furlongs on faster going is what she seems to want, and if she improves for it she should have every chance.
Selection - Sea Of Leaves @ 11/1 (Victor Chandler)
Saturday 15th August - 3.55 Ripon - 6f Heritage Handicap - Great St Wilfred
Good/Firm (GS 8.9). An odd shower possible on Friday night and Saturday but fast ground looks probable now.
The best pace is down the stand rail with Striking Spirit (1) and Tamagin (2). Markab and Judge N’Jury are in the centre and could go anywhere. Joseph Henry could well lead the far group. Kostar (5) is another possible front runner.
Finding the best horse likely to race on the far side has been the way to go for many years. This is less dependable on fast ground and especially so where the strongest early pace is likely to be down the stand rail, like tomorrow. However the theory was that there would be a big far side advantage in the Steward’s Cup for the same reasons and that unravelled in the final two furlongs. We will know where the best draw was after the race when it will be too late.
I could not find a tracker or closer drawn near the stand rail and suited by the conditions. Valery Borzov seems to need it soft. Fullandby was second in this race in 2006, but he prefers some ease in the ground and has offputting first time blinkers on. Skhilling Spirit should find things happening too quickly. Jimmy Styles seems the best bet of the hold up horses in this group.
Where Markab races could shape this race. He has a natural tendency to edge right. If he was drawn against the far rail he would be my choice. As it is the one on the far side which has most appeal for me is Hitchens. He is suited by being held up over 6f on fast ground. In his conditions he impressed when beating Knot In Wood at Thirsk. Since then he has been overtried in a Group Two, run well twice staying on well over an inadequate 5f, got left behind on easy ground in the Gosforth Park Cup and was unsuited by Good/Soft at Goodwood. Having dropped from 105 to 99 he is now well handicapped again. His record over 6f on Good/Firm or firmer is 111.
Selection - Hitchens @ 14/1 (Coral, William Hill)
The Week Ahead (16th August)
Sun 16th - 3.40 Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed - Flying Fillies Stakes
- 4.15 Curragh - 6f Group Three - Phoenix Sprint Stakes
Mon 17th - 3.15 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 6.35 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 18th - 1.45 York - 5.4f Heritage Handicap - Symphony Group Stakes
- 7.30 Nottingham - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Wed 19th - 3.50 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.25 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 8.10 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 20th - 4.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Lingfield - 6f Class 2 All Weather Conditions Stakes
- 5.00 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.40 Chepstow - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 21st - 3.25 York - 5f Group One - Nunthorpe Stakes
Sat 22nd - 4.35 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.50 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.25 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.25 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.15 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 23rd - 4.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Tuesday 18th August - 1.45 - 5.4f Heritage Handicap -
Good/Firm going. The Sea The Stars factor ensures that it is fast going. Shameful the way Clerks Of The Course are allowed to manipulate the going these days with apparently no useful input from the BHA.
Centre draw is best.
The front runners in order of most likely to force the pace are - Captain Dunne (16), Strike Up The Band (12), Cake (7), Fol Hollow (9), Peak District (19), Buachaill Dona (14) and Hamish McGonagal (13). Tabaret and Northern Dare should also be prominent. So lots of pace and a need to stay that extra 89 yards well.
This looks to be a wide open race with nothing especially well handicapped or suited by the conditions of the race. Some can be swerved on account of the fastish going - Sonny Red, Northern Dare, Kaldoun Kingdom, maybe Buachaill Dona. Some will probably find 5.4f at York on the quick side - Intrepid Jack, Barney McGrew, Brave Prospector. Some may find the extra 89 yds stretching their stamina - Captain Dunne, Peak District, Cake, maybe Piscean. It is difficult to make these fine judgements, particularly because intermediate distances are rarely run.
The better handicapped horses are Green Manalishi (if able still to run to his form of a year ago), Sonny Red (over 6f on easy ground), Hamish McGonagall, Buachaill Dona, Northern Dare, Kaldoun Kingdom (6f, give), Intrepid Jack (6f, strong pace), Captain Dunne (sharp 5f, easy going).
I see the pace as being strong 5f pace. The winner I see as lying 2 or 3 lengths off the pace in the centre, just staying on past the leaders as they fold. The one with the best form, draw and run style to do that is probably Hamish McGonagall.
Selection - Hamish McGonagall @ 7/1 (Betfred, Stan James)
Thursday 20th August - 4.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Good/Firm. GS 8.6 after 5mm watering overnight.
Masses of pace in the race. The front runners in order of most likely to lead are Titus Andronicus (4), Jargelle (6), Impressible (3), Noble Storm (13) and Mattamia (8). Bajan Tryst can also front run at 6f. This suggests a marginal advantage to the low draws, though it depends where Noble Storm heads.
Whilst York is a pace favouring track the shape of the race would seem to favour a horse coming from just off the pace.
I would have gone for Impressible on a soft surface as she seemed to improve on give last time. None of the chasers appeal a lot. Green Beret has the first time visor but for the life of me I could see nothing wrong with his race or effort at Goodwood. He is full brother to Inxile and half brother to Tax Free, and if he is to get to their levels he will be winning a good handicap soon. I liked the finishing effort of Mattamia at Goodwood and feel that the going, draw and track are all in his favour.So he is the one, at the prices.
Selection - Mattamia @ 11/1 (William Hill)
Friday 21st August - 3.25 York - 5f Group One - Nunthorpe Stakes
Good/Firm. GS 8.5. No watering on the straight yesterday/overnight so it should ride fast.
Probably no draw advantage though the stand side (Barney McGrew, Noble Storm etc) is at least as good as the centre. It looks like the drainage work has undermined the centre pace bias after all these years. Which is a shame as the races now lack ‘shape’.
After a 2YO wins the Nunthorpe it takes several years for people to realise that the 2YOs do not have a unfair weight for age advantage and that they need to be both very precocious and top class to win. So second favourite Radiohead, good as he must be, has a major task on here. To my mind there is no sense in looking further than Kingsgate Native. He is clearly the best horse in the race unless Radiohead is true Champion Sprinter material and has the right trainer/jockey combination and a nice middle draw. Conditions are as they were when he won the race in 2007. If he fails for whatever reason then Tax Free and Amour Propre are the most likely. If Borderlescott springs back to last year’s form, which is looking increasingly unlikely, he would probably still find conditions on the sharp side. Tax Free at 5/1 was an excellent price for a place on Betfair, but he isn’t that now.
Selection - Kingsgate Native @ 10/3 (Sportingbet) and 3/1 (Paddy Power, Coral etc)
The Week Ahead (23rd August)
Sun 23rd - 4.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 24th - Blank
Tues 25th - Blank
Wed 26th - Blank
Thurs 27th - 4.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 28th - 5.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 29th - 2.05 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
- 4.35 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.35 Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes
Sun 30th - 5.15 The Curragh - 5f Group Three - The Flying Five
- 2.10 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Saturday 29th August - 3.35 Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet Sprint Stakes
Good/firm though they have been watering. GS supposedly 9.3.
The most likely front runners are Masta Plasta (14), Peak District (6), Noble Storm (16), Hoh Hoh Hoh (1) and Hamish McGonagall (4). So a fairly strong pace for the track is likely. I expect that Masta Plasta will get the rail tracked by Noble Storm and the other prominent runners will do well from low draws to get and stay in touch. Assuming the normal high draw advantage is fully in place then the winner should come out of those drawn 11-16. This suggests that Noble Storm, Masta Plasta and Spin Cycle are the most likely winners by some margin. On ratings Masta Plasta is the best of those and will be quite difficult to beat IF Adrian Nicholls judges the pace correctly and if nothing sacrifices themselves to fight for the lead.
Selection - Masta Plasta @ 6/1 (Coral)
Saturday 29th August - 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
Going on the fast side of Good.
Lots of pace from Tamagin and Beckermet, and possibly Fat Boy who used to show his best form front running at 6f.
This is a wide open race but with the likely strong pace the winner will have to stay every yard.
Palace Moon has yet to build on the promise shown in March but it is only a matter of time, and conditions here should suit.
Selection - Palace Moon @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday 30th August - 5.15 The Curragh - 5f Group Three - The Flying Five
Heavy going. Pace from Reverence and/or Judge N’Jury.
Look Busy is equal top on my ratings and won this race last year in similar conditions. This year she won the Temple Stakes on Heavy going and her record at 5f on Soft/Heavy over the last two years goes 111. She should be favourite imo.
Selection - Look Busy @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 5th September - 3.30 Haydock - Betfred Sprint Cup - Antepost
Heavy rain is due at Haydock on Wednesday evening with some further rain likely. It is hard to see the going being other than on the easy side of Good. In which case one of the main players, Fleeting Spirit may not run, and at least her and JJ The Jet Plane would be inconvenienced.
The market looks a little odd with High Standing favourite, Fleeting Spirit’s price not yet reflecting the likely going and Finjaan still with plenty to prove making up the first three in the betting. Whilst he has been a little inconsistent all the evidence points to Main Aim being up to winning a Group One at 6f on easy going. In my opinion he should be favourite at around 4/1 at this point, so his 7/1 odds look good value.
Selection - Main Aim @ 7/1 (Betfred, Sportingbet)
Saturday 5th September - 1.55 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Supposedly Good (Good/Soft in places). GS 8.7
Plenty of doubts over the exact state of the ground and any draw advantage. The Going Stick reading has been heading in the direction of fast ground, despite showery conditions. I do not trust the reported ground and as small differences in going can make all the difference this race is one to avoid for me.
Blue Jack could well improve again and be difficult to beat, but the price movements on Betfair are odd. Arganil is one to be interested in. Cheveton is getting well handicapped but appears to be out of form.
Lots of pace from Captain Dunne, Strike Up The Band, Bertoliver, Equuleus Pictor etc should suit one coming from off the pace.
No Selection