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The Week Ahead (24th June). CURRENT RACE
Sun 24th - 3.00 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 25th - 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 26th - 3.15 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap - MEETING ABANDONED
Wed 27th - 5.00 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 28th - 8.00 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 29th - 7.15 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
- 8.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Conditions Stakes
- 9.10 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 30th - Pinpoint - 3.05 Windsor - The Midsummer Stakes - 8f Listed (Not Declared)
- 2.10 Newcastle - 6f Group 3 - Chipchase Stakes
- 2.45 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.40 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap
- 4.00 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.00 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Sun 1st - 2.05 The Curragh - 5f Listed
- 3.25 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap - MEETING ABANDONED
Unfortunately Beverley was abandoned through waterlogging. However coming up is the Northumberland Plate weekend. Always an excellent time for sprints. At Newcastle there is a Group 3 and two high class handicaps. With a 6f Heritage handicap at Windsor and a 5f Chester dash on Saturday there is something for all tastes. The prevailing soft ground and draw affected races should make winner finding at value prices a little easier too.
Bring it on !
Friday 29th June - 7.15 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
9am Thursday - The going is reported as Soft (Good/Soft places) with further rain due. We have the luxury of seeing for ourselves what the going is like at Newcastle today. The first race is a 2YO Maiden over 6f with 16 runners which should tell us something about any draw bias as well. There is also another 2YO race and a 7f handicap with 11 runners. Even if they don’t race both sides in that, it should give some information. The horse I am most interested in is drawn low, on the far side which is traditionally the best place to be on soft ground. In particular getting to the far rail was seen as very important. In the last two or three years the track has seemed much more fair, or even biased towards the stand side, at least on a sound surface.
Whilst the Gosforth Park Cup is a very competitive and significant race in the sprint handicap calendar I do not expect to see early prices until tomorrow. You can anticipate a very open market, though Buachaill Dona will have plenty of supporters back with his favoured conditions, 5f and easy ground. The best early pace in the race is far side - Turn On The Style (5), Celtic Mill (6), and Tabaret (4) and centre - Fire Up The Band (10). Bond City is the only occasional front runner on the stand side, though he has been ridden more conservatively, albeit in very fast races, lately. Last year Peace Offering (drawn 2) ridden by a 7lb lady claimer bizarrely came down the middle to win. I spent most of the race shouting advice and cursing her, well you would at 14/1 wouldn’t you?
10.20am Update
Selection - Turn On The Style (11/1 Ladbrokes with Buachaill Dona, Fonthill Road, Celtic Mill and Tabaret withdrawn)
Expect the price to go. Explanation later.
1.00pm
A crazy hour or two this morning as five horses were withdrawn, Fire Up The Band in addition to the four above. This changes quite a bit about the race. Firstly the reduction to 12 runners makes it less likely that some will go to the far rail. If any do then it will probably only be Turn On The Style and one or two others. With the 8mm of overnight rain changing the going to Soft (Heavy places) there must be a chance that several will try the centre looking for fresh ground. The Gosforth Park Cup was won down the centre in 2004 and 2006. Unusual for Newcastle and hard to predict then.
The second thing that the withdrawals change is the likely pace. Turn On The Style is the most likely pacemaker but Celtic Mill, Tabaret and Fire Up The Band would probably have pressed him. Now all three of those horses have been withdrawn. Bond City often races prominently but things should be much easier for Turn On The Style in front now.
Thirdly Buachaill Dona, the likely favourite has been withdrawn. He was a definite threat to my selection. The new favourite is Caribbean Coral. He won the race in 2004. If you read the form book it gives the official going description that day as Soft (Heavy places). You might believe that todays race is ideal for him. It isn’t. Back in 2004 the going was Good (Good/Soft) overnight and after rain the going description was changed. That was an overreaction, at least as far as the straight 5f was concerned. The race was won in 0.61secs above standard and the going was no worse than Good/Soft, possibly a bit quicker. Caribbean Coral has shown a preference for a sound surface, Good/Soft at worst, throughout his career. Yesterday the going was genuinely Soft and will be bordering Heavy today. It will not suit the favourite imo.
Of the others Green Park, Mecca’s Mate, and to a lesser extent Orientor and Prince Namid, will be suited by the conditions. Orientor would need a searching pace over 5f, and Prince Namid a stiffer 5f or 6f ideally? One or other of the latter pair would be the selection on ratings alone. Also Bond City and River Falcon will handle the conditions well enough
Why Turn On The Style? Firstly he will be able to dictate from the front. We often see how difficult it is for horses to pick up on very soft ground and the front runner just ploughs on to win. Hopefully ! Secondly he has shown his liking for very soft ground at Haydock in May 2005 when he beat soft ground horses including Zomerlust, over 6f, a trip which tested his stamina to the limit. The going was verging on Heavy that day, and it is the only time he has had soft ground. Thirdly he is an improving Pivotal. He showed good progress and excellent speed over the winter on the All Weather and put up a very creditable effort at Chester last time, when from a bad draw he pressed the leader, who himself was going too fast, around the outside for 4f.
So there are reasons, just on past form, for believing he might make all and that these may be his ideal conditions leading to some improvement. On top of that he may be improving anyway.
Post Mortem
The going was Heavy and there was an advantage in coming from the back down the stand rail, which turned out to be quicker. The first three all ran close to the stand rail through the second half of the race.
Turn On The Style didn’t. He got a slow start and although he got to the front he did not get to the rail and used too much energy getting in front. It was galling to see Green Park come late up the stand rail to win after selecting him for the abandoned York meeting. Caribbean Coral dispelled any remaining doubts about his effectiveness on Soft ground. He may be one to follow on faster ground and when there is a very strong pace, having run well here where conditions were not ideal. Prince Namid was a disappointment again.
Saturday 30th June - 2.10 Newcastle - 6f Group3 Chipchase Stakes
Rising Shadow has his ideal very testing conditions and is top on my ratings. Sierra Vista will almost certainly lead; where on the track will have some baring on how the race unfolds, In any case Rising Shadow will be somewhere at the back of the field and should be staying on more strongly than anything else. Hoh Mike will have to be better than he has shown so far to withstand the test of speed and stamina he will meet here. Fonthill Road I rate the biggest danger, but Sierra Vista, Appalachian Trail and Excusez Moi all have chances.
Selection - Rising Shadow at 7/2 generally
Post Mortem
All of the field raced along the far rail. Conditions were not quite as testing as the day before and there was a light tailwind. Rising Shadow seemed a completely OK selection but he did not get the strong pace he needed. I expected Sierra Vista to bowl along at her normal speed, but here she was able to dominate at a modest pace for the first two furlongs. So Rising Shadow was caught a little flat footed and did not get a clear run through. Appalachian Trail made a bold bid, which was ironic after he let us down back in the Cammidge Trophy over the same course, distance, going and similar opposition. I would never have picked the winner 3YO Confuchias if you had given me six selections. Apart from learning about Confuchias this race is best forgotten. Other than Sierra Vista dropping back the order remained largely unchanged throughout.
Saturday 30th June - 2.45 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Not a lot to think about here. Last night the going was just about as Heavy as it gets in Summer. Several of these go on very soft ground but just three relish it. These are Fullandby, Turnkey and King’s Gait. The others who are suited by the conditions are Zomerlust, Ice Planet, Sunderland Echo and Dickie Le Davoir. Mecca’s Mate goes on the ground, as her good 2nd yesterday shows, but will probably find 6f in the ground too testing.
The other main consideration is the draw. After they came down the stand side in the Gosforth Park Cup it looked as if the stand rail was the place to be. However in the last two races a group, then just two horses, went to the far rail and did best there. It looked like the old bias coming to the fore again on very soft ground. It is assumed that they will want the far rail today and most horses will go there. So far there are five non-runners - Indian Trail, Inter Vision, Masta Plasta, High Curragh and Joseph Henry.
Fullandby is drawn 14, Turnkey (11) and King’s Gait (3). Why it has taken this long for Fullandby’s trainer to run him on his ideal conditions I do not know. The races have been there waiting but the trainer seems to be trying to prove some point, that escapes me. He is rightly favourite, but a short price in the circumstances. Turnkey has Adrian aboard rather than the inexperienced 7 lb claimer who did a good job at Redcar. The claimer would have been a better choice, taking off the weight in this ground. He looks an uncompllcated ride. I have nothing between these two on ratings, though it would not surprise me if Turnkey improved a bit for these perfect conditions.
King’s Gait is steadily getting back to the form he was in at the end of 2005 / early 2006. He has a little to find with the other two on 2007 form, but not much. The draw could make the difference. Mr Wolf is the only habitual front runner left and he is drawn against the stand rail. King’s Gait and Turnkey are happy enough leading if necessary, and Damika races prominently. The pace/draw angle of the race is unclear but the far rail is definitely where I would want to be.
Selection - King’s Gait at 7/1 (no Rule 4 - Stan James, W Hill, Betfred)
Post Mortem
This race was notable for the complete eclipse of the horses most expected to appreciate the heavy going. Zomerlust got in the frame but King’s Gait, Turnkey and Fullandby ran way below expectations. Mr Wolf raced alone on the stand rail. The rest all made immediately for the far rail. The early pace, made by Gift Horse and King’s Gait, was probably a bit too fast for the conditions. The first three all stayed on more towards the centre of the course in the final furlong, and the fourth Ice Planet also ended up there.
Protector, was another winner I couldn’t have found even with tomorrows newspaper for help. He had run well enough in the Wokingham but improved more than a stone here. He had won in Dubai over the winter but his trainer was surprised as everyone else by this effort. As he won by five lengths we learnt very little about anything behind him.
Saturday 30th June - 3.40 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap
On soft ground at Windsor they go to the far side. Usually the rail is best but they have had some racing over there and recent rain may have got into the ground more than in the centre? The wide open spaces, movement of the rails, splitting of the track, and wandering draw advantage all make it more difficult than usual to work out how the race is going to be run. There is plenty of pace in the race. Angus Newz really has to dominate. Then there is Aahayson, Lethal, Kay Two, Idle Power and Lucayos. Also Barney McGrew and Beaver Patrol are pressers so there is going to be no hanging about. The Kiddykid is out.
A low drawn, 6f/7f horse who goes well on easy ground would be ideal. Burning Incense is the obvious one after his promising Wokingham run. He is not particularly well drawn and the price is too short for me. Barney McGrew is a horse I know very little about but you have to like his recent form and running style. He seems to fulfill the criteria? Last time at Newmarket he looked to improve for 6f and easy ground, and we know that he does not like fast ground. His comfortable win over Binanti at Goodwood reads even better now, but of course he has gone up a lot in the handicap. I think he will appreciate the faster pace today and with the draw and 7f stamina he stands a good chance. If the 7.5 Going Stick reading is reliable the going is more Good/Soft than Soft anyway. There are very few mud lovers in the field and maybe he will be one of those most suited by conditions.
Selection - Barney McGrew at 7/1 (William Hill and Sporting Odds)
Post Mortem
Barney McGrew ran a complete stinker. He wore a Monty Roberts blanket, was difficult to get into the stalls and restless once in. Whether this led to the bad run I do not know. It could also have been due to the ground, which was softer than for previous runs.
A pattern of above average 3YO results this year is beginning to form but Aahayson’s win off a rating of 102 against a good field of older handicappers in a Heritage Handicap is a surprise. He ran about 7 lbs better than I was expecting here. His form is now starting to show a preference for good or softer ground. This would explain his poor run at Haydock against Prime Defender and Hoh Mike on fast going. On this form he would have had every chance against them.
Phantom Whisper should find a winning opportunity soon, though he is creeping up the weights. The good runs of Tony James and Lucayos should be regarded with suspicion because they were the only ones to race down the stand rail, and apparently both ran better than expected. Burning Incense went ridiculously short in the market and ran more or less as well as he had done in the Wokingham. Maybe next time will be the time to catch him whilst all of his many supporters remember having their fingers burned. He came from the back with a long promising run but just flattened out inside the final furlong. Perhaps the race came a little too soon after the Wokingham? Anyway if the blinkers are back on next time that will be a positive sign.
Saturday 30th June - 4.30 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
There will almost certainly be a selection in this race but it is raining there and it would be best to wait to see how that affects the going.
The going is now soft at Chester but hugging the rails still sems the best tactics.
Selection - Blazing Heights at 11/2 (Stan James)
Post Mortem
As if the other results today were not demoralising enough ! Our Little Secret pinged from the worst stall (10 of 10) and made all. For much of the race Blazing Heights looked the most likely to catch her if anything did. Nothing behind showed anything worthy of note. Our Little Secret is in foal, clearly improving.and worth looking out for. I cannot remember any other all age handicap at Chester where the winner has come from the outside stall.
Sunday 1st July - 2.05 Curragh - 5f Listed
The Betfair market would have you believe that this is a match between Tax Free and Peace Offering (with Keiron Fallon aboard). However this race may not be as clear cut as that.
Update noon
On mine, Racing Post and Timeform ratings Green Manalishi comes out with a good chance. The soft ground form of Tax Free, Peace Offering and Green Manalishi is not rock solid. Tax Free goes on Good/Soft but has been withdrawn by Dandy when the gound has gone softer. I assume his weakness in the betting is partly the going doubts. Peace Offering’s form on Soft is patchy. Anyone relying on his excellent run at Tipperary on 1st October 2006 as evidence of handling very soft ground should look at the time, 1.20 fast, though the going was described as Heavy?
Green Manalishi’s soft ground form is also patchy. He has two or three runs on it which were as good as could be expected. He has a very high cruising speed and he is fine on soft when on the bridle. One can envisage him tucked up behind Peace Offering and Tax Free going best, and having a fair chance of getting by them in the final furlong. Neil Callan rides and he must be full of confidence after three winners at Newcastle yesterday. The Dandy Nicholls pair have plenty on conceding him 5lbs. Tax Free’s win against Dandy Man and Desert Lord has been overrated, though on Good ground he would be difficult to oppose on ratings.
For reasons which are not clear to me Dandy’s pair are around 2/1 and Green Manalishi is 8/1 with VCbet, William Hill and SportingOdds (9/1 earlier). If I was doing a tissue I would have the three of them roughly joint favourites at around 7/2 and the best of the Irish rather shorter than they are. Anyway Green Manalishi is a good value bet at the odds available.
Selection - Green Manalishi 2pts at 8/1 (VCbet, William Hill and SportingOdds)
Post Mortem
The awful results of the day before must have got to me. I have always thought of Green Manalishi as being best on a sound surface. However I persuaded myself that he would be the least inconvenienced of the three British runners and that this was a sensible basis for a bet. In the event all three ran well below form and Green Manalishi was the worst of them. Snaefell, a very ordinary Irish mudlover, picked up the pieces. If all this wasn’t bad enough I had 2pts on. I sense an example of chasing losses, which has to stop.
1st July
Saturday was one of those days when the pin was mightier than the Form Book. I am not sure that I can remember when four winners would have been harder to find. I shall do a good Post Mortem of all the races because there must be lessons to be learned amongst the mayhem. My results are not good at the moment but as I said before this is a long term project. Results over a month or two can be poor. What matters is the bottom line at the end of the season.
The Week Ahead (1st July).
Sun 1st - 2.05 Curragh - 5f Listed
Mon 2nd - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 3rd - 5.00 Brighton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.45 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 4th - Blank
Thurs 5th - 7.35 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap (Abandoned)
Fri 6th - 2.05 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.40 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 7th - Pinpoint - 2.35 Sandown - 8f Totescoop6 Heritage Handicap (Not Declared)
- Sandown - 5f Group 3
- Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes (Abandoned)
- Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only (Abandoned)
Sun 8th - Ayr - 5f Fillies Listed
Mon 2nd July - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
The meeting goes ahead but this is a poor Class 3 and not a race I have any great interest in. At least with the favourite, Misphire you know she goes in the ground and is in good form. But as we have seen this weekend in very soft ground surprises are more likely. Horses who previously have not appeared to go in the ground or have not been tried on it before suddenly prove their liking for Soft. No Selection.
Tuesday 3rd July - 8.45 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This race is by some way the most interesting of the days Class 4 Sprint Handicaps. Whether there will be a selection will depend on what we learn from the early races about the draw and going. Sometimes on soft going the stand rail loses it’s traditional advantage, and the far side can be quickest. The pace in this race is not particularly strong, so preference would be for a prominent runner.
8.30 pm
Hows She Cuttin has a good record on soft ground but her recent improvement has been on a sound surface. She may have made this improvement regardless of ground but that is not a given yet her price is very short. After 5 withdrawals this is down to an 8 runner race with one front runner. That is Mimi Mouse who has a good record at Thirsk and won last time. She is worth a bet at 6/1.
Selection - Mimi Mouse 6/1.
Post Mortem
All the withdrawals from this race reduced the chances of anyone going to the far rail. This race was lost for Mimi Mouse at the start. She got a moderate break and veered left from her outside stall. So the relatively easy lead I expected her to get never materialised. The others just got on with it, particularly the favourite who pressed the leader and kept up an even gallop along the favoured stand rail, which proved enough. Hows She Cuttin showed that she is at least as good on soft ground. Bond Boy can win again given a strong jockey.
Thursday 5th July - 7.35 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
We do not see many classy sprint handicaps at Warwick, which is a shame. The sharp track and low draw advantage would make for some good betting opportunities. Even on heavy going today I expect prominent runners to do better than holdup horses. There are three front runners here, Mujood who has not raced on going this soft before, Angus Newz who really needs to dominate and is unlikely to be able to do so despite having Holland booked, and, Charles Darwin who has been a little below par this season but goes on Soft.
Pacific Pride is the favourite. He is very inconsistent but has Spencer aboard for the first time since he ran a prodigious race in first time blinkers at York last August. Blinkers seemed to be an advantage last season but have been left off by his new stable so far this season. Despite Spencer’s services he has to be a poor favourite.
River Bravo is currently second favourite on Betfair and despite being a 4YO sprinter falls into the Dark Horse category. On his form, specifically a 3 runner 7f heavy ground win in early 2006 he is badly handicapped. However in a stable tour feature Chapple Hyam said this about him in late April “I took a chance running him at Newcastle and it wasn’t soft enough. We’ll have to wait, but he’s more than useful. We’ll aim him at a good handicap over 6f or 7f and then hopefully a Listed or Group race aboard.” He has been off three months and a sharp 6f with a 7lb claimer aboard may not be the best test of Chapple Hyam’s theory?
The Racing Post tip is Pawan. He is highly unreliable and has only won one turf race in the last three years. His form is up and down like a yo-yo. Typically he runs quite well against good horses producing good figures, only to run poorly in lesser company. However memorably, for me, he did catch my selection Steel Blue on the line at Beverley last August. It still hurts.
The pair of 3YOs do not look good enough at the weights, even in a year when the 3YOs have done much better than average against their elders.
All races have at least one winner so it must be in there somewhere?
Post Mortem
Pawan managed to snatch defeat out of the jaws of victory. He was thwarted by the 3YO Nobilissima, who previously had run her best race on easy ground and now improved further for very soft ground. She showed good speed to contest the lead with Angus Newz, yet stayed on best of all. This bodes well for further success on soft ground. It was 6 lengths back to the third. The result though is difficult to rate and the timefigure may be more help than ratings for future betting purposes. Don’t assume that Pawan will show this level of form next time, or the time after, for that matter.
Further evidence that the 3YO / Older horse balance has moved a notch towards the 3YO sprinters. Aahayson, Deserted Dane, and Gower and Rocker going close at Brighton are some of the other recent examples that come to mind. My theory built up over 20 years was that the 3YO sprinters as a population are always badly handicapped, a consequence of excessively high official rating of 2YO Maiden races and sprinters running close to good horses in 2YO Group/Listed races. Only those particularly leniently treated or lightly raced improving types were ever likely to beat their elders in sprint handicaps. It was a phenomena which gave rise to old racing sayings like “don’t back a 3YO sprinter against its elders until Royal Ascot” and “sprinters often miss out as 3YOs only to come back as 4YOs”.
Anyway this may no longer be true. Perhaps an increasing use of computers to monitor results and hence a more realistic handicapping of 2YOs is beginning to have an effect?
Friday 6th July - 2.05 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is Soft and the far rail has been moved in 4 yds, so the draw advantage may be minimal. The runners who have shown that they are suited by a stiff 5f on soft ground can be reduced down to - Out After Dark, Cape Royal, Phantom Whisper, Cashel Mead and probably Zowington who goes well on Good/Soft. Talbot Avenue is best over a sharp 5f because he pulls hard at anything less than a flat out gallop. Come Out Fighting is probably at his best over 6f. The others are rather better on, or need, a faster surface.
If the old high draw bias is still in effect with the rail brought in, then Zowington, Cape Royal and Cashel Mead have a good draw and Phantom Whisper and Out After Dark have a bad draw. Cape Royal is the most likely front runner unless he misses the break. Out After Dark, Little Edward and Zowington (first time blinkers) have quite often raced prominently. So there should be a reasonable pace for the conditions. There is a chance, a small one, that Zowington will race freely in the blinkers, go too fast, and set it up for a closer?
A selection will be made if a value price can be obtained.
Update 11.00 Friday
There are not any generous prices out there, but as my comments above suggest there are probably not many in this with a chance? The two I like best are Out After Dark and Phantom Whisper. Out After Dark has been generously dropped 5 lb this season despite him running a very good race in 3rd behind Ripples Maid and Intrepid Jack at Newbury.
Conditions are just fine for him and I am fairly convinced that the 5 stall is no disadvantage. As a normally prominent runner I see him racing in touch, challenging approaching the final furlong, and staying on strongly.
The biggest danger is possibly Phantom Whisper. He went up 4 lb for just failing to catch Bertoliver over course and distance, and is due to go up another 2 lb for running second to Aahayson at Windsor on Soft. He is a closer coming out of stall 2. Connections may think it is now or never with him due to go up again?
Zowington is the joker in the pack with the first time blinkers and plumb draw if the rail is best. It would not be a shock to see him make all up the rail. He is a bit in and out and hard to read. You could not be confident about his optimum conditions or whether he would go on the soft ground. His form this season is nothing special but still gives him a chance. At his very best he would be hard to beat. He is not my idea of a good bet at 5/1.
Selection - Out After Dark @ 4/1 with William Hill,Ladbrokes etc.
Post Mortem
Another example of how Dettori can be less effective on sprinters than your average Northern jockey. He just let the race happen. Deciding not to risk being kept wide he tracked across to the far rail to sit last. Fair enough, but then he made no effort to close on the pack leaving his effort much too late. Out After Dark finished best, but would not have got up, even with a clear run. Phantom Whisper can also be rated a bit better than the result. Zowington raced freely with blinkers but was soon beaten. Cape Royal ran his typical race over a stiff 5f on soft ground, deserving more credit as he led into a headwind. Cashel Mead ran well, had ideal conditions and things went her way. Run the race again and she would not be in the first three.
The Racing Post calls Talbot Avenue impossible to win with. He certainly is a challenge, as he hasn’t won for four years. His stats tell the story - 4 wins, 13 seconds, 7 thirds - in 79 runs. Not good for a horse talented enough to be placed 2nd off a mark of 100 in the Coral Sprint Trophy (2004). He is a bridle horse whose best chance will come on a sharp track. He has masses of speed, pulls hard and needs to be able to track the leaders at a fast pace covered up, without being disappointed. When he gets the right opportunity, a top class hold-up jockey, and Blanshard’s stable is back in form, that will be the time.
Saturday 7th July - 2.05 Sandown - 5f Group 3
Reverence is the most likely winner but his price is going to be around 7/4, at best. His able trainer Eric Alston would not be running him here unless he was at or very close to 100%. At the price I would rather back him than oppose him. He has his ideal conditions. Reverence is still lightly raced, a terrific physical specimen and I expect him to be even better this year than last. He is the best 5f sprinter in this country on easy ground.
Dettori replaces Hanaghan on Sierra Vista which is not a positive. A jockey who knows her well and can be relied upon to get her out ahead of the field and onto the rail is what is required. With a penalty to carry herself she has a much harder task than in the Temple Stakes imo. Even receiving nearly a stone the 3YOs Hoh Mike and Wi Dud should not be good enough to seriously trouble Reverence. Most trouble could come from Bond City who will handle the conditions well, gets 8 lbs from Reverence, has the plumb draw against the far rail, and was a good 3rd in both the Palace House Stakes and the Scottish Sprint Cup.
No Selection
Post Mortem
Yet another one for the 3YOs. In fairness they usually do well enough in Listed and Group 3 races, it is in handicaps that they are normally at a disadvantage. Here Sierra Vista (Dettori),with Reverence pressing, went off too fast, setting it up for a closer. Frankie, brilliant instinctive jockey that he is, is not really tuned in to sprint pace and tactics. Reverence got to the front but patently is not 100% yet and he soon weakened. Wi Dud ran a cracker to track the leaders, go to the front and nearly hang on, but at the finish Hoh Mike was going two to his one. Spencer made it look easy but it wasn’t. Sandown seems to suit Hoh Mike. To me he has the look of a five furlong horse and I would not be in a hurry to back him at 6f despite his strong finishing up the stiff Sandown five. This was a significantly better run than his last Sandown win or the Haydock 2nd to Prime Defender. Put in context though I have him 9 or 10 lbs below Sakhee’s Secret who stands head and shoulders above a useful batch of 3YOs, including Enticing. It would not surprise me if Sakhee’s Secret is the best 3YO at any distance, Authorised, Cockney Rebel and all. It is early days with many twists of the story to come, but that is how the computer has it at present.
Saturday 7th July - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going at Beverley is Heavy. Nevertheless the 5f handicap yesterday (Friday) evening showed that the high draw advantage was alive and well. Few of this field have shown good form on genuinely heavy ground, although many of them are fully effective on soft and some are acknowledged as requiring easy ground. The ones who are proven on ground this bad are Artie, Steel Blue, Pawan and Bond Boy. I would expect Prince Namid, Namir and Wanchai Lad to also be OK on it. There are no less than 10 Course & Distance winners in the field.
It is a very long time since Artie has shown good form so for now we have to draw a line through him. The one with ticks in all the boxes - top rating, good recent form, goes on heavy, suited by stiff 5f and has a high draw - is Bond Boy, which explains why he is a relatively warm favourite. His apprentice claims 2 lbs less than he did four days ago when Bond Boy was 2nd to Hows She Cuttin at Thirsk. I’d be keener on his chance if he had a strong and experienced jockey aboard. It is going to get tough in mid div on that far rail.
Steel Blue has a bad draw and as a front runner may expend rather too much energy getting across. He is likely to be contesting the lead with some combination of Artie, Kay Two, Bo McGinty, Pawan or Danum Dancer. Prince Namid has been disappointing since Epsom so has a first time visor. Very soft ground at a very stiff track like Beverley is close to perfect for him. His draw is not very good. Pawan I wouldn’t trust to build on the Warwick run. Namir has a bad draw and is only moderately handicapped now. Wanchai Lad has an average draw and a reasonable chance on ratings. If you assume that they will go in the ground you could not discount either Efistorm (bad draw) or Kay Two (good draw and possible front runner on the far rail).
Update - Pawan, Kay Two and Danum Dancer are out. This changes things so far as the likely pace is concerned and the draw for a number of the low drawn horses is not looking quite so bad. The going was so heavy last night that it would be no surprise to see another horse or two withdrawn.
So Bond Boy is an even shorter priced favourite, than appeared likely last night, at around 3/1.
Post Mortem
Handling heavy going and racing along the far rail seemed the essential requirements. So Desert Opal did extremely well from the lowest draw, racing on the outside but making good headway into 3rd place. Whether this was as good as it looked, only time will tell. Bo McGinty raced in touch until he got a bad bump halfway.
The Week Ahead (8th July).
Sun 8th - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Fillies Listed
Mon 9th - 4.30 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.25 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 10th - 4.15 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 11th - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only
- 7.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 12th - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 2.55 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.10 Nottingham - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Fri 13th - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Group 1 - July Cup
- 2.45 York - 6f Group 3 Fillies only - Summer stakes
- 5.05 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.35 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.20 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Scottish Stewards Cup
- 8.30 Chepstow - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 7.40 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.20 Hamilton - Blackheath
Sat 14th - 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.40 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.35 Chester - 5f Listed
- 2.40York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 15th - 2.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The week ahead is one of the highlights of the Sprint season. Not only is there the July Cup on Friday, but eight other high class sprints over Friday and Saturday.
Sunday 8th July - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Listed Fillies
A race which sees four of the best 5f fillies in the country in opposition. The market is dominated by Enticing. If you think that she is as effective on Good going as she is on Firm than it is hard to see passed her. However despite the goodish run behind Miss Andretti on Good/Firm at Royal Ascot, the suspicion remains with me that she needs very fast ground to produce her best. She will not get that today. However a run similar to that at Ascot would give her a fair chance.
The three older fillies Pivotal’s Princess, Mecca’s Mate and Terentia set a good standard and I have them within a pound or two of each other on ratings. You could not rule out Morinqua either though she has something to find on ratings. However the 3YOs have been so successful this season that I would not want to discount her entirely. It does seem to me though that with Our Little Secret in the field Morinqua will not get it her own way up front. Terentia and Pivotals Princess are usually prominent too.
My first reation was to like the chance of Pivotal’s Princess. She has won her last two races, conditions will suit her nicely, and she is quite flexible as to front running or staying in touch with the fast pace I expect here. Mecca’s Mate won this race in 2005 and will be held up today. Coming from the back may be the best tactics. She ran an excellent race in the Gosforth Park Cup and if there is plenty of juice in the ground she is going to run a big race. The going is described as Good (Good/Soft). Terentia has just as good a chance on ratings but she is rather in and out and by some way her two best runs have come at York. She has been off the track for 52 days. It would not surprise me to see her win but my confidence in her is well below that for MM and PP.
With my opinion of Enticing, brilliant though she is, I have to go for either Pivotal’s Princess or Mecca’s Mate. But which?
Update 2.30 pm
The first race was run in 5.39 secs slow. It was a modest 2YO race but it looked to be run at a sound pace. The implication is that the straight is probably riding Good/Soft. Enticing is a very short favourite and worth taking on, either by laying her, or going for either Mecca’s Mate or Pivotals Princess. As their chances are very similar I will go for MM.
Selection - Mecca’s Mate @ 9/1 (Betdirect and Betfred)
Post Mortem
This race was run at a good gallop into a headwind. Horses coming from off the pace were favoured. In the circumstances Morinqua and Our Little Secret did very well. Mecca’s Mate was ideally suited by conditions. Final Dynasty was a surprise. Her able trainer knows how to train sprint fillies but with a 12lb hike in the weights it won’t be easy to convert this new found ability into a win. Enticing was nowhere near as effective on this dead ground. Hopefully we have read this characteristic correctly and can profit from the knowledge in future. Pivotal’s Princess is usually very reliable but here was well below par.
It has been a bad run over the last five weeks. 22 consecutive losers. It is a relief that it is over.
In the introduction to the Blog (Archive 1) I warned that on the type of races bet on and the prices sought losing runs of 20 plus are not unknown. Well, of course, I was hoping that such a losing run would never happen, and if it did that it would be well into the year when the credentials of the blog had become established. When I look back over my betting diaries I find that 1993 was the only year when I did not have at least one losing run of 20 plus. Nevertheless I made a profit in all but one year (2000). In my early years of betting I can remember having a losing run that felt so bad at the time that I backed a 1/3 chance just to break the run. It won, but it was brief relief, because the next horse lost and so the bottom line was worse than ever. That taught me to just press on with my normal methods irrespective of results and let the bottom line take care of itself.
Looking back at the 22 losers, for the most part they were horses with a good chance which shortened in the betting, several of them markedly so. In fact only two bets (both Prince Namid) went off longer than the price taken. Some poor bets stand out - Whinhill House (wishful thinking on tactics/pace relative to Raccoon and draw advantage), Willhewiz (insufficient regard to rail relocation removing the draw bias) , Green Manalishi (poor logic). The Royal Challenge bet was based entirely on having a strong pace which did not materialise (wishful thinking). I knew that Adrian Nicholls was riding but still backed Moss Vale at 11/4, breaking the normal 3/1 limit. That one makes me wince. I should have researched Takeover Target’s plans more thoroughly on the Australian websites.
Not many winners got away over the period. Possibly Aegean Dancer at Musselburgh and Green Park in the Gosforth Park Cup.
The coming week will be full of opportunities with every chance of getting back into profit soon.
Monday 9th July - 4.30 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This is a poor standard race with only three of the eleven runners rated 70+. Bond Boy may be worth opposing on this sharper track and quicker ground, and with the same apprentice aboard?
No analysis and no selection.
Monday 9th July - 8.25 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
The stalls unusually are to be situated on the far side and you would expect high numbers to be favoured. Some of these seem best on a sounder surface - Danum Dancer, Top Bid, and perhaps Deserted Dane. We only know for sure that Tudor Prince, College Scholar and Dickie Le Davoir go well on soft ground. This is a race for watching closely but not betting on. Too many unknowns. The Racing Post tipsters selections say it all - seven of the eight horses have been tipped by someone.
No Selection
Tues 10th July - 4.15 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Braddock is a horse to be interested in but will probably not be 3/1 or better at any stage, slightly better prices having been taken on Betfair this morning. Unbeaten in three races, yet he is still running off a moderate 78 rating. He is a nice type by Pivotal who could go on to much better things. Last time, in May, over 7f he pulled like a train early, leading King Harson down the centre at Newcastle. Always up with the pace he stayed on the stronger to win by two lengths off a mark of 71 from a field of 17 handicappers. Nothing special but he had been off the track for a year. A stiff 6f on easy ground should be very suitable. I invariably go for solid proven form rather than the guessers option, but in this case Braddock will not have to improve much to have a very good chance, and I think that he may improve quite a lot.
The obvious alternative is Mr Wolf who is ideally suited to front running at Pontefract. As he ran a cracker on soft ground in last years Great St Wilfred (off a 4 lb higher mark) the conditions should hold no fears for him. Perhaps a sound surface would have been ideal. Anyway back at Ponte he should give a very good run for your money at around 7/1. Paris Bell looked good at Warwick winning ears pricked, but then threw in a stinker at Newcastle. He is in and out but at his best a threat today at longish odds. Stonecrabstomorrow hasn’t done anything on sound surfaces this season but could spring a surprise on soft ground. Silvestre is on Continent and is sure to go well.
Selection - Braddock (if reaching 3/1 at any stage)
Update 12.45
Braddock has been withdrawn. He does have entries at the weekend at Ascot, Chepstow, York and Haydock so watch out for him. Perhaps Pontefract was drying up too much? Also out are Hiccups and Goodbye Cash.
Mr Wolf is likely to get an easy lead. I do not see where the pressure will come from. With the ground drying out they will probably stay on the inside which is essential for him. Although there are some dangers and unknowns I think that he is a good bet at the current 11/2. Mr Wolf has a fantastic record at Ponte - 5 wins and 1 second in just seven runs.
Selection - Mr Wolf @11/2 (Betdirect, Sporting Odds)
Post Mortem
Mr Wolf went a little too quickly for the conditions. He remains one to follow on fast ground at Pontefract. Whilst not taken on for the lead he was pressed by Campo Bueno and Angaric, a tactic which often makes the jockey on a front runner ask for a little extra speed too early in the race. The winner came from a detached last and the placed horses were not involved in the early pace.
Wed 11th July - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only
This handicap is usually won by a horse of at least Listed standard. Last year Wokingham heroine Dark Missile won it, and the year before it was Tax Free. There are at least two horses in the race that are extremely well handicapped. The two favourites Express Wish and Utmost Respect. In his last race Express Wish just beat Mac Gille Eoin and El Bosque off a mark of 84 on his handicap debut. Mac Gille Eoin has since won two races and has gone up 18 lb in the handicap, and El Bosque won by 7 lengths at Ripon yesterday off a 3lb higher mark. Express Wish carries just 5lb more than at Haydock. At 2YO he was highly regarded with Group entries.
Last September Utmost Respect gave Aahayson a beating getting 2lb, with four lengths back to the third. Utmost Respect looked the better horse and Aahayson had the advantage of front running down the favoured stand rail. Since then Aahayson has gone up 22lb in the handicap to 105. At Goodwood on 9th June I expected Utmost Respect to be one of the favourites, but he drifted badly in the early market. In the race he was extremely gently handled, and never given a chance to get into the race. Viking Spirit and Cape drew all the attention but Utmost Respect also could have beaten the winner imo.
I assume that both of these horses were aimed at the abandoned William Hill Sprint Trophy, along with Off The Record. He comes to the race off a four time winning sequence over 5f on the All Weather at Southwell. As such one can only guess how he may perform over 6f on relatively fast turf. On the occasion of his last win his trainer warned that he is fragile and would only run on turf when there is give in the ground.
Sandrey is another on a lenient handicap mark judged by his win at Lingfield. He too needs plenty of ease in the ground and disappointed those who didn’t heed the warnings at Newmarket where he finished lame.
There are several other horses in the race which have excellent credentials including Lipocco, Longquan, Celtic Sultan and Vitznau. It is a very hot handicap.
Update 9.30am Wednesday
Perhaps it is a mistake to get involved in such a competitive 3YO race. However both CRF and Timeform ratings point to Utmost Respect having an excellent chance. I was very taken with his Ayr and Goodwood runs. He may need some ease in the ground and after only three runs there is much about him that we do not know. He seemed to react fine to the hurly burly of a biggish field at Goodwood, only held back by his jockey’s minimal effort and steering into trouble.
I have always liked a low draw when the far side track is used at Newmarket, but the lack of use for nearly a year and nil watering mean that there is as level a playing field for this race as you are ever likely to get on the July Course. There seems to be enough pace spread across the track to make a pace influenced result, with one side dominating, just a normal random factor.
Selection - Utmost Respect @ 6/1 (Blue Square)
Post Mortem
To repeat the above remarks this race invariably produces high class winners, and several of these are probably ahead of the handicapper.
The advantage appeared to lie in racing middle to stand side. eight horses raced on the far side and the best of them was Mastership, in 7th place, who probably ran to his very best. Shmookh showed excellent speed, being chased home by two progressive horses who have figured in this Blog, Off The Record and Utmost Respect. Off The Record showed himself fully effective on fast turf. Utmost Respect seemed to find conditions fast enough, only making significant headway when he met the rising ground in the final furlong and a half. He finished like a train, which bodes well for a stiff 6f on easy ground, or 7f. It will be a shame to lose him to 7f races, if that is what happens.
Shmookh has been put up 8lb, Off The Record 6lb and Utmost Respect 3lb. This will not stop them being contenders in any suitable races. Express Wish ran poorly for no apparent reason.
Thurs 12th July - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going will be on the fast side of Good. Today (Wednesday) there seemed to be a significant advantage in racing on the stand side. Even in the Cherry Hinton Stakes when a stand side group of four took time to get organised, and trailed the bigger far side group for most of the race, they still ended up doing best. So we should be looking for the winner of this in the high half of the draw, unless Thursday’s earlier races show something different.
The race is packed with front runners. Harry Up, Loch Verdi and Judd Street in the low numbers. Moorhouse Lad, Turn On The Style, Bertoliver and Handsome Cross in the higher numbers. The obvious implication is to expect a fast pace spread across the track and to look for a hold up horse or chaser drawn high. Unfortunately this theory does not throw up very convincing contenders. Perhaps the most likely is Curtail (Drawn 17) who went close at Ayr behind the dead-heaters Gallery Girl and Garstang, then from a bad draw at Chester behind Our Little Secret just kept on never dangerous. Woodcote is in the next stall. He is really a 6f horse imo but won over 5f at Ascot when nobody seemed to want to lead and so he led racing away from the others, and with his 6f stamina coming into play, could not be hauled back. He is unlikely to be able to do that tomorrow although the stand rail will be vacant early in the race. Woodcote has not yet hit form in three starts and wears first time eyeshields. Next to him is Distinctly Game who followed an awful 2006 with quite a successful AW campaign. He hasn’t run since March and without information as to his current well being you could not back him. On the other side of the posse of front runners Dig Deep and Lethal are of only limited interest in the context of this race.
If last years winner, Matsunosuke, had been drawn high he would definitely have been the selection. A strong running hold up horse, he would have been ideal, especially with Ryan Moore riding. But he is drawn 5 and unless the draw bias disappears it is best to leave this race alone.
Update 9am
Further consideration has not thrown up many new ideas. Moorhouse Lad was impressive helping to set a very fast pace in the King’s Stand Stakes and keeping on surprisingly well in the circumstances. Ridden a little more conservatively he could have them all gasping, and keep sufficient in hand to hang on. The problem with that theory is Dettori is riding, and he’s not the best judge of pace in handicap sprints. Turn On The Style is entered in the Nunthorpe, which probably has no significance at all, but could be a hint of better things to come? Watching yesterdays races again it was possible to do well by racing down the middle, having moved across from a low draw. Ashes Regained from stall 4 in the 17 runner one mile handicap being the most obvious example. However 5f handicaps are a different kettle of fish with much less time available to steer where you would like to go, without losing ground and position.
There will probably be no bet in this race unless new draw evidence in the July Stakes or 3.45 changes things.
Update 4.30pm
It is impossible to predict what jockeys are going to do. All afternoon they have been coming down the centre and seem determined to avoid the stand rail ! In which case there is really no reason why Matsunosuke should be disadvantaged by stall 5.
Selection - Matsunosuke @ 11/2 (Betfred, Sporting Odds)
Post Mortem
Sometimes you just have to laugh at the cards dealt to you. Firstly Moorhouse Lad was ridden by Jamie Spencer in place of an injured Dettori. Then in a race blessed by masses of pace ideal for Matsunosuke’s “must be covered up hold-up style” he got a good break, the front runners went off to the left and to the right and he raced prominently in daylight all the way. Harry Up in particular should have moved across him towards the centre, but went to the slowest part of the track on the far rail. Unbelievable !! Also it was one of those races in which there was a front running conspiracy. With so many in the race they went off conservatively and so the front runners did best, picking up nicely 2f out and keeping on. To add insult to injury Moorhouse Lad won from Turn On The Style.
Hopefully more on this, in a day or two, when the pain has subsided.
Having analysed the race there is not much more to add other than that two horses would have been closer with unhindered runs. These are Dig Deep, who may have been 4th or 5th with a clear run, and Magic Glade who would have been alongside him if his jockey had not dropped the reins and then his whip, getting in a right muddle.
Friday 13th July - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Group 1 - July Cup.
Going just on the fast side of Good. Draw bias - none apart from disadvantage very low (far rail). Pace bias - unclear but Borderlescott, Prime Defender and Amadeus Wolf should ensure a fair pace on the stand side. Dandy Man may be forced to front run in the middle for want of a lead going fast enough?
Forget Bentley Biscuit on account of the ground. Soldier’s Tale will probably also be at a disadvantage, if he runs. There is a suspicion that Dutch Art may need some ease to be at his very best?
There is an often repeated belief attached to this race. It is that “classic” horses dropping back from Guineas campaigns over a mile have a tremendous record in the July Cup. In fact there has been only one winner which could meet that description in the last 10 years. Mozart was second in the Irish 2000 Guineas, although always a fast front running horse likely to be more successful over shorter. Stravinsky was campaigned with the intention of trying to get a mile but after a number of goes at 7f they gave up even with that distance.
Which brings me to Dutch Art. No doubt he is a fine horse with good speed, but watching his races in the 2000 Guineas and St James Palace Stakes I do not see how one can conclude that he will be more effective at 6f than at a mile. He was not going to win either of those races at any stage. The CRF ratings for his 2YO form are way down on the last two runs, so it looks like he has improved at a mile. Chapple Hyam has entered him in the July Cup because there is a six week gap in his schedule and he has apparently always had an ambition to run a ”Guineas” horse in the July Cup. He also has an ambition to run him in the Champion Stakes over 10f. After the Greenham Chapple Hyam said “They’ve turned it into a complete sprint, which didn’t suit my horse”.
Of the alternatives Asset’s main claim is based on the belief that he will do even better on fast ground than he did in the Golden Jubilee. This involves a leap of faith. It is at least as likely that his connections have been wrong to date in believing that he needs fast ground. Whatever, he has a perfectly reasonable chance, but an unhelpful draw?
Amadeus Wolf has been hyped up for months by his trainer repeating the notion that he is a stronger much better horse than last year. However the Duke of York Stakes win was just on the same sort of level as several of last years runs taking into account normal 3YO to 4YO improvement. At 3YO he was just three or four pounds below the very top sprinters and most likely will be again. Bygone Days and Red Clubs are others with an outside chance given a little improvement.
Sakhee’s Secret’s claim is based on the Salisbury win. First analysis suggests that it is an easy race to rate and Sakhee’s Secret comes out with the rating of a potential champion 3YO sprinter. However the rating relies to a large part on Prime Defender having run to form. I half expected other ratings to be well below mine but the CRF computer has it slightly higher than me and Timeform has it higher still. So Sakhee’s Secret is generally top rated for the race. He is also a rapidly improving sprinter who may leave even the Salisbury form well behind. At Salisbury when he was pulled out to challenge the acceleration was not instant, however Steve Drowne only had to give him one crack of the whip and he took off. If he had made his effort sooner the chances are he would have won by further. He is not very experienced and has never run in a Group race. For some people these are important considerations. Perhaps the faster pace will get him off the bridle, perhaps the quality and quantity of opposition will undo him. Why? Sprinting is basically about going faster than the others between A and B. The Salisbury race was as strong as many Group races. These reservations deserve some consideration and he may well not be as good as he seems but as far as I am concerned he is the most likely winner of the July Cup.
Ante Post Selection (18th June) - Sakhee’s Secret 2pts @ 8/1.
If the price on the day was to reach 5/1 or better it would be well worth taking imo.
Post Mortem
There is more to come from Sakhee’s Secret. He was locked away in a pocket until 2f out and showed his trademark burst of speed getting to the front very quickly, but Steve Drowne did not go for everything. His form on fast ground is well ahead of anything he has achieved on easy ground (eg Newbury). There is a possibility of making money out of his failure in the Sprint Cup at Haydock if it is run on easy ground?
Dutch Art was just tapped for pace midrace, which is why he lost his place. In the circumstances he ran an excellent race, staying on strongly to the line. Whether it is a good idea that he races in sprints I do not know. There is a chance that he will always be a little outpaced if they quicken at halfway, which is often the way that Group sprints are run. In the Middle Park Chapple-Hyam had him ridden up with the pace for fear that he would be caught flat footed by a pure sprinter. The problem has not gone away.
Dandy Man will be hard to beat if the ground comes up fast for the Nunthorpe.
Asset showed again why he is a 7f horse. Perhaps he saw too much daylight, but he was quite badly outpaced midrace only to stay on strongly inside the final furlong. After the Golden Jubilee I was prepared to accept that he is fully effective at 6f but now it seems that the way the Ascot race was run just played to his strengths. There he was staying on dourly to the line getting closer and closer to Soldiers Tale and Takeover Target. The idea that he needs fast going has little credibility now. He will be quite difficult to beat over 7f on anything from Good/Firm to Good/Soft.
Fri 13th July - 3.35 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Selection - Orpsie Boy @ 6/1 (SportingOdds)
The price may not last long. Orpsie Boy has plenty of potential and impressed me at Salisbury for his second consecutive win. Indian Trail and Swinbrook are less reliable alternatives.
Post Mortem
Quite strong form. Orpsie Boy made it a three timer and probably hasn’t finished winning yet. He is a big scopey horse. Roman Maze is in a good vein of form, and Indian Trail and Swinbrook have been threatening to take advantage of falling handicap marks for some time. Lady Livius came back to form with first time blinkers.
Fri 13th July - 8.30 Chepstow - 6f Class 2 Handicap
An interesting one with the unbeaten Braddock and Osiris Way both going for a four-timer. Viking Spirit, unlucky at Goodwood, will not be far away, and Greenslades could be a hard horse to pass in the conditions. Chepstow is on the edge of the rain belt coming through and may get an appreciable amount or very little. Viking Spirit is fine with some give in the ground but I am not sure that he will appreciate more rain. There is limited evidence of Matuza on easy ground. More rain will suit Greenslades and Braddock. The Kiddykid has a first time visor.
There is not a lot between several of these on ratings and they have chosen a hot race out of the alternatives available this weekend. Braddock is a Pivotal colt on a steep upward curve with a top jockey aboard and I fancy him a little more than the others. If the stable were in better form I would be having a saver on Greenslades, who is back to the mark from which he won a Class 2 at Newmarket last year. He is a tough admirable front runner who takes some passing when on song and a gruelling climb up the Chepstow hill on soft ground is right up his street.
Selection - Braddock @ 3/1 (Sporting Odds)
Post Mortem
Braddock did not give his running at all and one can only assume that something was wrong. He led appearing to be going well, only to suddenly drop out after 4f.
Viking Spirit won well showing that he handles Heavy going just as well as faster ground. Bearing in mind what I said about Tony James after the Windsor race and the failure of any of the others to run to form here, there has to be a question mark against ratings produced for this race. My rating sees Viking Spirit back to his very best, but not improving. Others eg Timeform and the Racing Post have him improving 4lb on anything he has ever done which is a questionable conclusion on the basis of a seven runner heavy ground race imo. He picks up a 3lb penalty for the Steward’s Cup and you would have to include him on your short list.
Friday 13th July - 8.20 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Handicap (Scottish Stewards Cup)
Protector clearly goes extremely well over 6f on very testing ground. On Racing Post ratings he improved by 13 lbs on anything he had done before. All of the timefigures I have seen back up the ratings. Coincidentally his next best Racing Post rating was achieved on very soft ground at Deauville. However the going at Hamilton is Good. So a performance similar to the Wokingham one rather than the Newcastle one is more likely imo. He may have improved for his new yard but I prefer the going/stamina explanation. As Protector is favourite that should give some opportunity to find a value bet elsewhere.
As I thought that Knot In Wood might win the Wokingham, and put his poor run down to the first time blinkers, you would expect me to fancy his chances in this with the headgear left off. The apprentice who gave him a gentle ride over 5f at York is back on. The price at 5/1 now is not great. 11/2 was available earlier. But I think it more likely that his price will shorten, rather than lengthen.
Selection - Knot In Wood @ 5/1 (generally)
Post Mortem
More later but suffice it to say that this performance by Knot In Wood could make him Ante-Post favourite for the Steward’s Cup. The 12/1 is going and should be taken if Ante Post betting is of any interest. Of course there are masses of unknowns at this stage but I can see him shortening to 6/1 or 7/1.
Selection - Knot In Wood @ 12/1 Antepost Steward’s Cup
The immediate Steward’s Cup betting move for Knot In Wood stopped at 10/1. There has also been a modicum of interest in Viking Spirit and Utmost Respect. After the next forfeit stage we should see the market settle down and take stock of recent results. How Zidane is still favourite I do not know. He will need to show significant further improvement to stand a chance at Goodwood.
One outsider with a serious chance is Out After Dark who gets in 5lb below the 100 mark from which he won the Portand Handicap (2005) and was beaten just two lengths in the Ayr Gold Cup last year. He showed form almost up to that level behind Ripples Maid and Intrepid Jack off 98, and gave notice of a win soon when given too much to do by Dettori at Sandown over 5f. He is versatile as regards ground and a good mount for a claimer. Of course we do not know the draw and that can be crucial on Steward’s Cup day, if there is rainfall or watering during the meeting. Nevertheless at 40/1 he is worth an interest.
Out After Dark @ 40/1 each way Antepost Steward’s Cup
Every dog has its day. This was a day to remember for me with 3 winners out of 4 and 26 points won.
We ended up on a 5/4 chance backed at odds of 3/1, but the winner was Viking Spirit and I couldn’t be more pleased for Martin, John and the others in the syndicate. They have had a trying time for two years with Viking picking up serious injuries and then scoping dirty the week of the Victoria Cup. Ready to go again in the Wokingham he was balloted out despite a mark of 94, the highest I can ever remember failing to get in. As if this wasn’t enough at Goodwood he was all dressed up waiting to win his race and got stuck in a pocket for the final two furlongs, cantering. So his win today was nothing more than he deserved. Make no mistake this is a very useful horse who can win again.
Saturday 14th July - 3.35 Chester - 5f Listed
Very soft ground. Rail moved in to provide fresh ground. Bin the normal Chester formula of low draw imperative and front runners with an easy lead favoured. This is a different ball game.
Bounty Quest and Fayr Jag are non runners. Peace Offering is favourite at around 15/8 yet he confirmed in our ill fated Green Manalishi bet at The Curragh that he is not at his best on soft ground. Neither is Tournedos, and there must be a doubt about Steve’s Champ. Our Little Secret has a lot to find on ratings, and her role in the race may be to force a fast pace from the outside draw. So the winner should be either Bond City or Fathom Five.
Update 10am
Now Tournedos is out, and it is down to a 5 runner race. The way that the 3YOs have been going I fear Fathom Five, but he is only getting 5lb from Bond City who is a classy underrated animal. Bond City has plenty of very good form on Good/Soft, some of it marginal Soft, though he has not raced on going described as such. I think he will be suited by conditions.
Selection - Bond City @ 3/1 (no Rule 4 deduction)(Stan James, Betfred)
Alternatively opposing Peace Offering on Betfair is a reasonable option. Peace Offering’s booked jockey is Sam Hitchcott, an odd booking for Dandy (only 4 rides in 5 years) suggesting a lack of commitment. Silvestre was due to ride Tournedos. Maybe he will switch. Whether Sam or Silvestre ride they have a tough task deciding on tactics. If they try to take the front running option he will surely get involved in a battle with some combination of Our Little Secret and/or Fathom Five and Steve’s Champ? If they take a pull, the best chance, they fail to take advantage of Peace Offering’s most successful running style. A poisoned chalice?
Post Mortem
There will be a few punters kicking themselves for not following Our Little Secret’s “in foal” roll. What can you say? She is exceptionally effective at Chester. The draw was not a factor again as the jockey was determined to lead, got a good break and nothing wanted to take him on. Bond City was bumped and pushed right out of the stall, which got him further back than he wanted to be. Whether the going was also too soft I do not know? Peace Offering was disadvantaged by the ground and put in a run of similar merit to The Curragh. Hopefully people will be put off backing him when he pops up for us on better ground.
Saturday 14th July - 2.40 York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Heavy ground. Several of these go well on it - Prince Namid (again !), Kenmore, Pick A Nice Name, Paris Bell and Prospect Court. Prospect Court is a mudlark whose form has got better the deeper the mud has got. Kenmore won a Claimer last time but the level of form was well below what he was capable of last year. He was claimed, which was probably a shrewd move, bearing in mind Dandy’s modus operandi which sees a horses handicap mark drop, success in a Claimer, then a revival in handicaps. Prince Namid would be a major contender if somewhere near his best but recent runs in near ideal conditions have been very poor. Pick A Nice Name is harshly handicapped. Paris Bell very in and out, mainly out. Ingleby Princess has not run on very soft ground. The others are probably not suited by it.
Prospect Court is the obvious one. However he probably will not be 3/1 or better. 11/4 with Stan James has been taken. 5/2 is available in only a few places, and the Betfair market is not looking hopeful.
Selection - Prospect Court only at 3/1 or better.
Post Mortem
Prospect Court was available briefly for 3/1 plus on Betfair. Which was nice. However as he was not 3/1 with the bookmakers at any stage he does not qualify as a Blog bet. He travelled really strongly through the middle part of the race, but it is difficult to know just how much he had in hand? Paris Bell was regarded by the Racing Post and TV pundits as unlucky in that he had to come around the field to challenge off a modest pace. Prospect Court would probably have held him anyway imho. Paris Bell is a bit of an enigma, mixing up runs like this one and Warwick, with slow starts/never dangerous, and complete stinkers. If there is a pattern I have not spotted it yet. Bo McGinty ran really well on going that did not suit him. 6f on a sounder surface will see him winning.
Saturday 14th July - 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Relatively easy to dismiss most of these but something has to win. The ground will be fast. Judged by yesterdays races they will tend to edge towards the centre/far side. The front runners are Cape Royal, One Putra and Sweet Afton, with Corridor Creeper and Little Edward pressing. The Jobber, Hoh Hoh Hoh and probably Border Music will be held up. Texas Gold tracks and Golden Dixie and Out After Dark chase. The pace will probably be moderate.
So far One Putra, a front runner at 6f, seems to have suffered when dropping down in trip to 5f. There is a fine line between being able to maintain a high cruising speed at 6f and going a stride too fast at 5f. The Jobber usually goes well fresh, but his stable is in such poor form and his handicap mark now so high that it is difficult to be enthusiastic about him. Sweet Afton and Little Edward seem a touch too high in the handicap. Border Music travels strongly but all his form screams best at 6f/7f on the All Weather. Connections seem determined to pursue the idea that he is also a 5f horse and armies of punters have had their fingers burnt believing he is better than he is, and that he will win at 5f. Better left alone on the turf imo. Corridor Creeper does not seem quite as good this year. He can win on fast ground but he is thought to have his best chance with a little cut. Cape Royal ran an excellent front running race at Sandown, into a headwind, under conditions which seem to suit him ideally; a stiff track and soft ground. Back on fast ground I would not be so sure that he would stride out at a comfortable pace with such zest.
This leaves Out After Dark, Golden Dixie, Hoh Hoh Hoh and Texas Gold. Texas Gold has plummeted in the weights of late. Down from a 100 rating to 89 in four runs. He was beaten 4 lengths off a 7lb higher mark at Goodwood behind Dingaan in the Viking Spirit/Utmost Respect/Cape race. 5f on fast ground is ideal for him and I expect him to go much closer today. If it had been a sharp downhill track I would have been interested at the 16/1 price he is. Of course there is a strong possibility that he is regressing due to age and you could chase him down the weights, with physical decline just in advance of the handicap mark decline.
Out After Dark is favourite. This is not Sandown on soft ground though and he will find 5f at Ascot plenty fast enough. At 6f he often races prominently but 5f in fast conditions may have him off the bridle early. On ratings his chance looks excellent but on racing style and characteristics he just has a fair chance? He does have Ryan Moore on his side.
Golden Dixie is on a high handicap mark but has a solid chance. He and Cashel Mead were slightly flattered by the result at Sandown. However Luke Morris, who has ridden him a few times, is a nice plus, who may make the difference. Hoh Hoh Hoh has Jamie Spencer back. I still think that he is a horse with more talent than his form this year reveals. Tricky to get it out of him but that is why Jamie is there. It is a toss up between these two. As Golden Dixie is 9/2 and Hoh Hoh Hoh is 8/1 I will go for the latter.
Selection - Hoh Hoh Hoh @ 8/1 (Totesport, VC bet)
Post Mortem
Well I suppose it was inevitable that Border Music would finally come good at 5f on turf and that he would choose the day my selection was poised to win at generous odds. Fate tempted again. Cape Royal went off like a rocket, several lengths clear by halfway. Hoh Hoh Hoh looked the likely winner for a while as he and Border Music clawed Cape Royal back. But entering the final furlong Border Music’s stamina began to come into play and he edged ahead in the last 100 yds. Texas Gold sprawled coming out the stalls which ruined his chance. Golden Dixie, like several of the others, was off the bridle very early as they tried to chase the furious pace. The Jobber ran a good race without ever looking to have the speed to challenge. Not a typical 5f race and some analysis will be needed to reach any firm conclusions. First impressions were that the first two were some way superior at the weights. Border Music is a Listed winner on the AW and Hoh Hoh Hoh has potentially more in is locker.
Border Music was running from 4lbs out of the handicap and is due to go up 11lbs. Hoh Hoh Hoh is due to go up 4lbs which looks quite lenient.
Sunday 15th July - 1.55 Curragh - 5f Premier Handicap
There is a valuable 5f handicap at The Curragh this afternoon, where the going is Heavy. Green Park and Hogmaneigh are amongst the runners. Also in the field is Snaefell, winner of the Tax Free / Peace Offering / Green Manalishi race. Whilst not a betting opportunity, because of scant knowledge of the Irish runners, it could be informative. Irish handicap sprinting has improved in recent years. More ex-British horses turn up there and If Paradise and Rainbow Rising are in this race. British horses have to be at the top of their form and quite well handicapped to justify the trip. Machinist, with Silvestre riding, won a big prize there only a fortnight ago. Dandy, Kevin Ryan and Richard Fahey are frequent visitors.
Post Mortem
Green Park was badly hampered as he was trying to get through to challenge. This fact is played down in the Racing Post result, but he may have gone close with a clear run. Hogmaneigh also ran a good race from an unpromising position.
Sunday 15th July - 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Balakiref is a slow sprinter, but he does thrive in bottomless ground. The worse the better. As the going is Heavy, bordering on unraceable at Haydock he has his ideal conditions. Few horses go well on ground this bad. Balakiref will just trundle on at the finish, which may well be enough. Darryl Holland has won on him recently and he is probably worth a go at 11/2.
Selection - Balakiref @ 11/2 (Coral)
Post Mortem
Daryll Holland rode Balakiref with maximum confidence which almost made the old horse look good. Do not back him unless the going is very very soft. Stonecrabstomorrow also goes well on soft but is not so dependant on it. He was unlucky to run into a complete mudlark here and looks likely to win soon.
Ann Stokell makes a habit of running her horses from out of the handicap. Legal Set was no less than 19lbs out of the handicap proper here but was only beaten 1 3/4 lengths. It will probably be best for your bank account if you wipe this fact from your memory immediately.