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The Week Ahead (4th May)
Sun 4th - 3.55 Newmarket - 5f Group 3 - Palace House Stakes
- 2.25 Salisbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Mon 5th - 2.30 Kempton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
- 5.00 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Fillies Handicap
Tues 6th - Blackheath - 8.05 Catterick - 5f Class 5 Handicap
Wed 7th - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.15 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 8th - 4.35 Chester - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.00 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 9th - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.35 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
- 7.00 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 10th - Pinpoint - 2.10 Lingfield - 10f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 3.55 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 4.00 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.55 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.55 Nottingham - 6f Fillies Listed
- 3.25 Nottingham - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 11th - Blank
Wednesday 7th May - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap
How I love Chester and that beautiful draw advantage. The going will be Good or thereabouts. 7.5 on the Going Stick yesterday and drying out.
Over 5f the draw advantage is huge. In a 3YO+ handicap where they are all, more or less, evenly matched and fighting for the same patch of grass I use a scale of roughly 1.3lb per stall. Which means those drawn 12+ are at a stone or more disadvantage. Of course a quick start + easy lead, luck in getting a position near the rail or a dream run into the straight can overturn a moderate draw. Soft ground and false rails can also upset the natural order. However it is best to look for the winner drawn low.
Having done the analysis without looking at all at the draw, I then do the normal draw table with ratings adjustments. Over 5f at Chester this usually leaves just a handful of horses to consider. The method is then, starting with stall 1, to look for the lowest drawn horse that has a good chance.
Stall 1 - King of Swords - Ex-Irish, where lately he ran in good handicaps from a mark that looked too high. Ran with some promise behind Geojimali at Doncaster 4 days ago. There he was ridden by Tom Eaves. Now he has the burden of Kim Tinkler who has to be one of the worst jockeys riding regularly. He is also 3lb out of the handicap. No.
Stall 2 - Green Park - Well handicapped but it seems clear that he needs very soft going to be at his best. Likely to be outpaced in the first half of the race and well behind. Will need a suicidal pace, the field coming back to him fast and a dream run. No.
Stall 3 - Invincible Force - Has plenty of pace and has gone well at Chester before, including two wins there. Seb Sanders takes no prisoners at Chester and will probably get to the rail early, possibly messing up the selection. Reasonably handicapped. Seasonal debut so fitness unknown. Chance.
Stall 4 - King Orchisios - Beat Oldjoesaid off 93 at Catterick and looks well enough handicapped off 95. Has a good record front running round sharp turning tracks. This faster going will probably help. Spencer not ideal. Good chance.
Stall 5 - Methaaly - 17lb out of the handicap. No.
Stall 6 - Caribbean Coral - 5lb out of the handicap but won this last year from the same effective mark, 86. 2nd at Musselburgh suggests a win is not far away. Needs them to go too fast up front and come back to him. Luke Morris claiming 3lb a positive.
Good Chance.
Stall 7 - Bertoliver - Very quick front runner on his day. 5lb above his highest winning mark and probably not able to win off of
88. We do not know whether he is in form. Could be an important player in the race but an unlikely winner. Outside Chance.
The others have very little chance imho.
Therefore the lowest drawn horse with a good chance is King Orchisios. Unfortunately the Racing Post did the price no favours by putting him in at 3/1 favourite, 6/1 bar. 7/2 is available in the early price market, first thing, and I sense that 4/1 may become available at some point. He is fairly steady on Betfair at around 4.9. There was a little money for Invincible Force at 9/1 and 8/1 last night.
Selection - King Orchisios @ 15/4 Sportingbet (or wait for 4/1 if you are lucky)
Post Mortem - Not a pleasant race. King Orchisios broke a leg and was put down. Bertoliver got a relatively easy lead and from the moment Strike Up The Band started to find challenging around the outside too tough, leaving Bertoliver clear, the race was not in doubt. Green Park did well in conditions which seemed too quick for him, but a low draw at Chester can be a powerful thing and he is probably flattered by this result. Don’t expect him to repeat it in fast conditions. Rebel Duke ran well from a poor draw, but the real eyecatcher was Buachaill Dona. He made up lots of ground on the outside in the straight from a bad draw. Buachaill Dona has seemed best with some ease in the ground which he had here.
Wednesday 7th May - 2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The second most draw dependant 5f in the country is Beverley.
Namir is a slow old boat for a 5f sprinter but he is fully effective over the Beverley 5f. Last May, on ground just on the fast side and from a mark of 71, drawn 11 of 11, carrying 8st 1lb with Fentiman (claiming 3lb) riding he got a dream run up the far rail and won. Today the going should be Good, he is off a mark of 69, is drawn 11 of 11 and carrying 8st 1lb has Fentiman (claiming 3lb). He is in form judged by his 2nd to Digital at Bath and now has a 3lb lower handicap rating. Today’s opportunity will not be lost on the trainer and jockey so let us hope for history to repeat. Almaty Express and Melalchrist should provide a strong pace.
Looking at last years race, with the 11 runners the horse drawn 11 is in a separate range of stalls so has plenty of room early on. It is like having an empty stall or two next to you. We have to hope that nothing drops out. Pawan getting a slow start would also be handy.
Selection - Namir @ 11/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)
Post Mortem - Not a straightforward win for Namir by any means. Melalchrist again came out of the stalls awkwardly. Instead of jinking left, this time he went right, bumping Pawan and Glasshoughton. Namir and Pawan got in each others way, Pawan losing out most in the fight for position. Almaty Express also suffered a bit. If by some fluke Pawan turned up somewhere with a proficient jockey he would probably be a good thing.
Friday 9th May - 3.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This race will be on fire from the stalls. We have two of the fastest front runners in the country (Merlin’s Dancer and Harry Up), two others Timeform describes as speedy front runners (Ocean Blaze and Silver Prelude) and two others who will front run given half a chance (Fromsong and Misaro). In a similar race at Great Leighs in which Merlin’s Dancer and Misaro took part, they went a frenetic pace and stopped to a crawl in the final furlong allowing Lord of the Reins, who was detached in the rear, to win. Something similar should happen in this race despite the Lingfield 5f usually favouring front runners.
Mondovi, a half-sister of Branston Abby, has been brought over from Germany to be trained by Nicky Vaughan. So from that stable it is no surprise to find that Mondovi is owned by two ex-Newcastle footballers. Bad boys Craig Bellamy and Kieron Dyer. Mondovi has been heavily backed this morning. It took over two hours for Betfred’s 14/1 to be taken, but since 10am it has been smashed in to 5/1. Do professional footballers get up late in the morning?
My approach to this race is to look for a horse who can stay reasonably in touch with the expected fierce pace, yet be staying on at the business end. Misaro should be able to do that. He has a 6lb lower mark on turf than on the AW, yet 7 of his 10 wins have been on turf. He won off his current mark at Hamilton last May, chasing a fast pace.
Selection - Misaro @ 5/1 (Sportingbet)
If the gamble on Mondovi keeps going a better price may be obtained just before the off.
Incidentally Ocean Blaze is a half-sister of speedsters Maktavish and Paradise Lane. The latter is the fastest starter I have ever seen on a British track. Ocean Blaze could progress at 4YO and the booking of Darryl Holland is a worry. My hope is that she will get involved in a speed duel and blow up.
Post Mortem - Prophetic words for once. The Lingfield 5f course record was set fourteen years ago by Eveningperformance, a top class filly that led the 1996 Nunthorpe Stakes for all but the last stride, where she was caught by Pivotal. Well here they broke the record in a Class 4 handicap on going that the previous day had been described as Good (Good/Soft in places). There was a furious pace. Zowington sat last and picked up the pieces. He was well backed so somebody had worked it out. Misaro was stuck out wide in the centre, whereas it was best to be near the stand rail. I do not know why I thought he would sit at the back of the pack. Merlin’s Dancer forced the pace and kept on surprisingly well in the circumstances. He looks to be coming good for a sharp 5f at somewhere like Epsom or Goodwood. Ocean Blaze is the one to be most interested in next time.
The footballers predictably lost lots of money on Mondovi. It is a shame that some of it did not end up over here.
Saturday 10th May - 3.55 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Six of the field are having their seasonal reappearance and apart from Border Music, who goes well fresh, there is no particular reason to believe they will hit the bullseye first time out. Esteem Machine is the only horse known to be in top form. Dazed and Amazed, SouthandWest, Woodcote,and Rainbow Mirage have all shown a little promise.
Esteem Machine seems less well treated now and has plenty on his plate to give weight to several of these. Border Music’s form is still better on the All Weather than the turf, perhaps because he needs a very strong early pace. He is unlikely to get that in this race.
Dazed And Amazed has won two Listed races. Whilst he may have been fortunate to do so he is becoming well treated in handicaps now, having dropped from 101 to 88, since winning the Achilles Stakes ahead of Intrepid Jack, Rowe Park and Border Music. He has gone well for his apprentice before and in a race where I expect the pace to be modest I see him being in close touch, kicking early and having every chance to hold on.
Selection - Dazed And Amazed @ 10/1 (Betfred)
Post Mortem - Dazed And Amazed did not come on for the last race and ran a bit flat. Even so he would have been hard pressed to get in the first three. He did edge in front briefly but there was very little there when challenged.
When he gets a faster pace to chase Border Music will be difficult to beat. Phantom Whisper also seems to have come back at least as good as ever and is one to have in mind next time. Jimmy Styles is a little more difficult to read, and I would not be confident as to how he will run next time.
Saturday 10th May - 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
A year or so ago you could have relied on Celtic Mill firing off in front and Reverence pressing the pace. Perhaps even Hoh Hoh Hoh would have led if nobody else wanted to. However the pace will not necessarily be that strong the way things are going this season. Celtic Mill looks to have deteriorated and maybe they are marking time until his handicap mark comes down sufficiently to make fast ground 5f races winnable again? Reverence is not the horse he was either and the 6f trip looks to necessitate more conservative tactics, if he doesn’t pull too hard. Sometimes Hoh Hoh Hoh goes from the front and sometimes he is held up. Which will it be this time?
With a strong pace Advanced would take a lot of beating. With a modest pace he is there for the taking. There will probably be no selection in this race.
Post Mortem - Not an easy race to rate accurately. Perhaps Reverence improved a bit more? He is still well down on his form of two years ago. Machinist is in excellent heart but will be edging up in the handicap, which will make it difficult to win. Supporters of Advanced will have been very disappointed but he has shown several times that he needs the fast pace and hurly burly of a large field handicap to bring out the best in him.
Saturday 10th May - 3.25 Nottingham - 6f Listed Fillies
Will Cartimandua be fit for her seasonal debut and how good was her win at Haydock really? Will Morinqua stay 6f? Crystany is likely to improve a lot, but is she quite up to winning in this class?
These and a number of other questions, which spring to mind, mean that there just too many unknowns for my liking.
No Selection
Post Mortem - I underestimated Cartimandua. She is very useful. She was the only one able to lie close to the pace set by Morinqua and readily burst to the front one and a half furlongs out, and was good for more than the winning distance because of the tough way she was asked to race. She seems a free running type who will be effective over 5f as well. Horses with her running style tend to win more than their fair share of races. Last year she had a knee injury. If she can be kept injury free she has a bright future. Day By Day did best of the stand side group, and showed some improvement. Unfortunately her handicap mark will probably get a hike.
The Week Ahead (11th May)
Sun 11th - Blank
Mon 12th - Blackheath - 2.50 Redcar - 5f Class 6 Seller
- 4.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 13th - 3.20 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 7.20 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Fillies Handicap
Wed 14th - 3.10 York - 6f Group 2 - Duke Of York Stakes
Thurs 15th - 1.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Fri 16th - 3.45 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.20 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.20 Newbury - 6f Listed 3YO only
- 3.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.50 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 17th - 3.55 Newbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.20 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.55 Thirsk - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.30 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.45 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 18th - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Tuesday 13th May - 3.20 Southwell - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
A low draw is good on the Southwell 5 furlongs. Other than that I have no opinion about this race.
No Selection
Wednesday 14th May - 3.10 York - 6f Group 2 - Duke Of York Stakes
Yesterday, anyone seeing that the going description was Good/Firm with two fine dry days to follow might reasonably think that the ground tomorrow will be Good/Firm. Wrong ! These days Clerks of the Course heavily water tracks before these big meetings and to hell with the fast ground horses. They do it to maximise the number of runners over the course of the meeting and to avoid the best ones withdrawing. It is a grossly unfair situation.
So we assume the going for this race will be Good, perhaps even a little Dead.
At the end of the season York will be putting in new drainage. No doubt this will remove the compaction and alter the pace bias which has made this my favourite track down the years. For now we can expect them to come down the centre, and probably form the normal V shape which makes it difficult to make ground down the stand rail. The best draw is in the centre, particularly if the best early pace is there. The most likely front runners are Beckermet (7), Beaver Patrol (5) and Galeota (15), with Sonny Red (16) and possibly Assertive (6) others who may press the pace.
US Ranger was impressive in his only attempt at sprint distances at The Curragh last September. However that race was in testing conditions and he is in for a sharper test at York. If I am right about the draw advantage he also has a bad draw to overcome. If he wins this he will be a contender for the top sprints.
Haatef did well to win the Diadem, but has to carry a 3lb penalty, and needs to improve on this his seasonal debut. Utmost Respect’s best form in the Ayr Silver Cup was on soft ground, and although he looked good in his Thirsk win I believe that form is weaker than it has been rated by some. Soldier’s Tale also needs give to be seen at his best and is lumbered with a 5lb penalty. War Artist is a horse to watch for later in the season, his Group One penalty will make things difficult for him until it expires in mid July. Garnica’s form in France was high class. If fully fit he would be a contender but he has the worst draw. Balthazaar’s Gift is good enough, has suitable conditions and could be set to burst into life. He showed nothing in the Abernant and in the last two seasons has needed two runs before reaching a peak at Royal Ascot. If the same pattern is followed he will run a good race without winning.
Which leaves me with Assertive. He was a little unlucky to be touched off in the Abernant, where he came from further back than normal after a slow start. Perhaps he was rusty for his seasonal debut. In the paddock it looked as if there was something left to work on. Assertive has shown steady improvement thus far and his Abernant run points to further progress. These are all arguments for supporting his chance, but the clincher for me is his lowish draw between likely front runners Beckermet and Beaver Patrol. On a track that favours prominent runners he may get the perfect tow down the centre of the track.
Selection - Assertive x 2 points @ 8/1 (Coral, Totesport, Paddy Power)
Post Mortem - Every now and again a race goes more or less exactly how you think it will. Lucky then that this was the race. Also lucky that the Clerk of the Course had watered cautiously.
Assertive should continue to run well in Group races, but will be up against it to win another. The horses to take out of the race are War Artist, US Ranger and Hoh Mike. On this showing War Artist will be a contender in the Golden Jubilee. US Ranger is also a top class horse who needs a stiff track, testing conditions or 7f. Hoh Mike was starting to haul the leaders back until he ran out of gas in the last 100 yds. He will be a force to be reckoned with over a stiff 5f, or easy 6f.
Thursday 15th May - 1.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The going on Wednesday turned out to be a bit quicker than expected. On the fast side, though only the Duke Of York Stakes was run under standard. As usual the advantage was with those who went down the centre.
There are two fast front runners in the field, Bertoliver and Strike Up The Band. Bertoliver had things his own way at Chester and was able to dominate without going overly fast. At York he has more of a problem, and I expect the lead to be contested.
The short list is - Fyodor, Strike Up The Band, Special Day, Bertoliver, Bond City and Aegean Dancer; with a slight preference for a chaser drawn in the centre of the field.
Update - On reflection there is a fair chance that they will go too fast up front in this race. Which, of course, would set it up for a chaser/hold-up horse. Royal Rock won a 6f race at Yarmouth recently where Fyodor came to battle it out with he and Orpenindeed only to run out of stamina in the final 1/2 furlong. That was good quality form in a fast time and perhaps, at long last, Fyodor has dropped to a mark he can win off. He needs fast going (or Polytrack), and a fast pace to be seen at his best, and perhaps he will get just that today. Murtagh rides which has to be a bonus. Fyodor is drawn next to Bo McGinty and one away from Bertoliver so should get a reasonable tow into the centre without losing ground.
Selection - Fyodor @ 11/1 (William Hill, Totesport)
Further Update - More non-runners now through - Rebel Duke + Bo McGinty, Fantasy Explorer, Bond City.
This does not change the conclusions above. A disadvantage that Fyodor is now one stall nearer the rail; an advantage that he is now next to Bertoliver. There will be a small Rule 4 deduction.
Post Mortem - There was just 2 1/4 lengths between 1st and 9th. The placings were decided by where on the track you raced (centre best), how close to the pace you raced (coming from the rear best) and luck in running. In the circumstances you can say that McEvoy’s tactics on Bertoliver were a success in getting 3rd place, though they did no favour to Fyodor who needed Bertoliver to go fast and towards the centre. The 1st, 2nd and 5th sat at the back and were still there approaching the final furlong. Fyodor was marginally outpaced 1 1/2 furlongs out, but was staying on strongly and would have finished a length behind the winner but for running out of room in the last 50 yds..
Friday 16th May - 4.20 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Despite 5mm of watering the going is still on the fast side of Good, and the centre is the place to be.
Having watched Bertoliver not go to the centre, and therefore not take Fyodor with him, I am not interested in anything drawn 9 to 16. You just cannot trust jockeys to go where it is fastest. Best therefore to back horses that almost have no choice but to race on the fastest strip, which is stalls 1-8. Of those drawn 9 -16 the only one who looks to be of interest in the conditions is Tombi in any case.
The best pace is also low. Malcheek (3), Kostar (7) and Hinton Admiral (9) are the most likely front runners.
In my opinion Machinist’s run against Reverence has been overrated by such as Timeform and the Racing Post. I think he has it all to do to win off a mark of 100 from stall 1. So the short list consists of Mutamared, Wyatt Earp, Buachaill Dona, and Damika.
Update 9am - Wyatt Earp stands out like a beacon in this field. His York 6f handicap form is exceptional when you consider how competitive these races are. 3 wins, a 3rd and a 4th from 7 runs. He won this race in 2007 from a 2lb higher mark. In a recent stable tour Fahey is quoted as saying he couldn’t be happier with his condition. However it is a competitive race with 16 runners, Wyatt Earp hasn’t won for a year and showed very little in his seasonal debut at Beverley. All in all I thought we might get a nice price of 7/1 say. So it was very annoying that the Racing Post put him in as clear favourite at 4/1, a price that immediately became the basis of the Betfair market last night, and the bookies price this morning.
The natural reaction to this is to consider all the alternatives again. Damika’s form is excellent but my feeling is that the handicapper is getting to grips with him and York today will be plenty quick enough. Then there is Machinist, and Buachaill Dona was a big eyecatcher, making up lots of ground down the outside, from a bad draw at Chester. Mutamared is below his last winning mark, and continues to give the impression that he can win a nice handicap when he gets fast going, a fast pace and a clear run. Of these Mutamared appeals to me most at his price 14/1.
However Wyatt Earp objectively does have everything going for him, with the exception of no public demonstration that he is in top form. He is drawn between Malcheek and Kostar and his section of the draw should get the all important tow down the centre. So despite the price looking too skinny I think it is actually value, all things considered. The price is unlikely to go away as it will put a lot off. I would just like to check that overnight watering has not moved the draw bias before making the selection.
Selection - Wyatt Earp @ 9/2 (Sportingbet)
Though not a selection Mutamared @ 14/1 (Betfred, Ladbrokes etc) or at longer odds on Betfair is a good bet imo.
Post Mortem - This race has often been an indicator of big race winners to come. In 2005 it was one of the strongest sprint handicaps I have ever seen. Soldier’s Tale (then 94 now 118) won from Fonthill Road (then 88 now 106) and Gift Horse (then 87 later 106). The RUK guest Dave Nevison started talking in glowing terms about this years race after Tombi won clear of Atlantic Story who was clear of the rest.
To me the result had more than a little to do with the pace and the effect of overnight watering on the draw. After two lots of overnight watering it is probable that the worn centre had become the place to avoid. I was expecting a strong pace but the early pace was modest with the normal front runners allowing Atlantic Story to make the running. From an early part of the race Atlantic Story led Tombi with Hinton Admiral in close touch. Those horses filled the first three places.
Certainly Tombi ran an excellent race and will be a contender in good handicaps, though his handicap rating has now gone up 10lb to 102. He will need to improve further and may do so. Two horses made ground down the disadvantaged centre, Machinist and Damika, deserving some extra credit. Several could not get into the race due to the pace gradually winding up. These included Wyatt Earp and Mutamared. Barney McGrew was badly hampered twice, nearly coming down on the second occasion, and would have been much closer with a clear run.
No Selections over the weekend due to a trip to North Yorks, away from the internet and access to prices etc. Normal service now resumed.
The Week Ahead (18th May)
Sun 18th - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Mon 19th - Blackheath - 3.10 Musselburgh - 5f Class 6 Claimer
- 8.40 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 20th - 4.30 Southwell - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 5.00 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 21st - 3.45 Ayr - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Thurs 22nd - 3.25 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 7.10 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 23rd - 7.50 Haydock - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 24th - 3.35 Haydock - 5f Group 2 - Temple Stakes
- 2.05 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.15 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.20 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only
- 3.50 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 2.55 Beverley - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes - Something declared to run
Sun 25th - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap 3YO only
Wednesday 21st May - 3.45 Ayr - 5f Class 3 Handicap
After a short break, when I wouldn’t have found any winners anyway, there is an interesting few days coming up. The Temple Stakes, now switched to Haydock, several Class 2 races and the Coral Sprint at Newmarket, a 3YO only Heritage Handicap which sees some of the most promising young sprint handicappers in opposition.
But tomorrow there is a little tasty hors d’oeuvre at Ayr. Well hopefully it will be tasty. Whether there is a bet will depend on the Racing Post tissue and the early Betfair market.
Update - Tabaret won, what was in hindsight, a weak Listed race as a 2YO. Like many such horses he went far too high in the handicap (103) and it has taken him two years to get down to a realistic level. He can win off his present mark (87) and the positive signs were there at York on Thursday when he pressed Bertoliver for the lead and looked to have every chance of a place until the last strides. That run was only his second of the season and he had the worst draw. I would be disappointed if he couldn’t improve a couple of lengths on that. The fast going at Ayr should be ideal. He is the only natural front runner in the field so could make all.
The Racing Post tipped River Thames and made Deserted Dane their tissue favourite, and their 4/1 Tabaret looked interesting. However the nibblers on Betfair have worried away at the price and left us with 10/3 as the best available. They could have had as much as they wanted at 4/1 this morning with a little patience. River Thames is a 6f bridle horse who often looks good but is likely to find nothing if outpaced in a 5f race. He was flattered by making up ground along the favoured rail at Thirsk recently when the race was all but over. Deserted Dane is a threat but he let his supporters down at Thirsk on Saturday, seeming to be going best from a good draw and then finding little as two came passed him.
Selection - Tabaret @ 10/3 (Betfred)
Further Update - The 10/3 has gone and it looks like the remaining 3/1 will not last. 3/1 is still a reasonable price.
Meeting Abandoned due to a false patch of ground. Grrrrrr.
Thursday 22nd May - 3.25 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
A good class race but only seven runners, and some of those completely out of form. So this is unlikely to throw up a worthwhile bet. The going is just on the fast side of Good in the straight.
Update - It goes against the grain to have a Class 2 race and not to try again to search for a value bet. So here goes.
The Goodwood five furlongs is sharp. But there is about a furlong uphill to the finish which catches anything out that has gone a stride too fast. The most likely front runner is Classic Encounter. He has ideal conditions and won over course and distance last May. In a race where the only other feasible front runner is Elhamri he has an opportunity to dominate and kick from the front putting the rest in trouble, just like last year. However he has been running much too freely in the last two races to get home in front. At Thirsk on Saturday he was restrained to some degree, disputed the lead for 3f and weakened to finish last. To back him you have to believe that his form will suddenly come good and he will run to his absolute best. With a horse like him jockeyship is important and Mullen has not ridden him before. Unlikely. Best price 9/1. Poor value.
The Jobber goes well fresh, winning two out of his last three seasonal debuts. But from much lower handicap marks. Conditions are suitable but he will have to be at his absolute best to have a chance of winning off of 98 first time out. He is a horse that travels sweetly held up at the back. Steve Drowne has not ridden him before, though that is probably not significant. His chance will come if Elhamri takes Classic Encounter on and the field goes too fast. Best price 5/1. Reasonable value.
Golden Dixie has won over course and distance, off a much lower mark. He will chase the pace from somewhere towards the rear and conditions will be on the sharp side for him. Ryan Moore is the jockey of choice with one win and one second in four rides. He probably would not be on today if a less than a good run was expected. Place chances but perhaps the track is too sharp and the handicap mark too high to expect to win unless two or three others run below par. Best price 7/1. Probably about right with Moore aboard.
Woodcote is proving to be a difficult ride. Slow out of the stalls and headstrong. There is plenty of talent there but you would have to be an optimist to expect everything to fall right today. A new jockey is tried and connections must be just hoping for something to turn up. A long shot. Best price 20/1. No thanks.
Elhamri won the Newbury Super Sprint, went massively high in the handicap (111) and has been coming down ever since without looking to be close to winning. Optimism would be based on the fact that his best form is on a sound surface whereas all his races over the last year have been on easy ground. He is now on a reasonable handicap mark if in good form. The evidence of his last run over course and distance on 3rd May is not encouraging. He was soon outpaced, hung and was beaten 6 lengths by Safari Mischief. Maybe that was an off-day on ground again too slow as he usually shows some speed in his races and could even dispute the lead if Classic Encounter is ridden more conservatively. Medium shot for the guessers. Best price 8/1. OK
Sweet Afton is in foal and that can improve the form of some mares, though by no means all. She came third at Bath behind Morinqua and Dark Missile in completely different conditions, soft ground and a stiff track. Reproducing that level of form would give her every chance. The bad news is that she has been inconsistent in the past and hard to predict. Also Timeform say she bled at Bath. Possible. Best price 11/2. Which reflects optimism following the Bath race rather than her form as a whole.
Safari Mischief is one of those steadily improving types from a small yard, that rarely get much of a write-up but which win more than their share and would be lucrative to follow if you could only identify them early enough. Conditions are fine and he has two wins from three runs on the track. He is by some way the most likely winner but his price 15/8 fully reflects that fact. On a risk/reward basis it is not a price which is of interest to me.
No Selection. As usual analysis of sprint handicaps can look pathetically wrong with the benefit of hindsight. One of the elements of making a profit is knowing when the odds are stacked against you, and given my methods this is one of those races.
Friday 23rd May - 7.50 Haydock - 5f Class 3 Handicap
There is likely to be a selection in this race.
Update - Bahamian Ballet ran a nice seasonal debut at Beverley in Namir’s race. Badly drawn low he showed bright speed on the outside, nosed ahead a furlong out, and only weakened out of it late. He seems to have come back at least as good as ever. The draw was more than enough to explain the distance beaten the way he was asked to run his race.
Jilly Why seemed to put up an excellent performance at Thirsk on Saturday, winning by 3 1/2 lengths and 2 1/4 lengths. It would make you think that she has a very good chance under a 6lb penalty. However they probably went off too fast and the final time was moderate, which suggests to me that they slowed dramatically in the final furlong exaggerating the winning distance. The going at Thirsk was on the easy side of Good and will be fast today. Royal Envoy won in similar circumstances at Thirsk and also has to contend with different conditions. On my numbers these two have a tougher task than suggested by Timeform and Racing Post ratings. We shall see.
Selection - Bahamanian Ballet @ 9/1 (Paddy Power)
Saturday 24th May - 3.35 Haydock - 5f Group 2 - Temple Stakes
On the basis of Thursday’s racing the going at Haydock is genuinely Good/Firm. Apart from maintaining Good/Firm in the back straight there is no indication of proposed watering, between now and Saturday. After the 2008 Haydock Sprint Cup fiasco the Clerk of the Course cannot afford to water that much. Some rain is possible tonight and there may be showers after racing tomorrow, but Saturday should be warm and dry.
On the Haydock straight it is better to be drawn high than low on fast going.
14 are declared and it is an interesting field. The four 3YOs include the very high class Fleeting Spirit and recent Ascot winner Sir Gerry. My reading of his form suggests that Sir Gerry needs give in the ground. It wouldn’t surprise me if they scratch him.
Dandy Man was switched to Godolphin after running in the Prix l’Abbaye. Godolphin do not have much of a record with sprinters. Had Dandy Man still been with Tracey Collins he might have been my selection. After a 230 day absence and now trained by Bin Suroor he is worth opposing. In any case as 2007 wore on he was looking more difficult to win with, pulling hard and racing prominently when his best performances were produced tracking or chasing the pace. At Royal Ascot his chase of Miss Andretti from a poor draw was outstanding.
As possible alternatives Borderlescott, Desert Lord, Tax Free, Enticing and Fleeting Spirit make up the short list.
Selection - Desert Lord @ 12/1 (Blue Square)
Update - the 12/1 has gone with 10/1 the best currently available. Ladbrokes go 6/1 Desert Lord which is intriguing. It is an extraordinary difference compared with the other prices available.
Saturday 24th May - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
A fiendish puzzle of a race. Irresistible.
What we have is fast ground and a flat track giving a relatively quick 5f. All three sprint handicaps on Friday evening were run under standard time. None of the nine runners is an habitual front runner. Only three, Invincible Force, Green Manalishi and Bond City have been prominent runners, and then not recently as far as I recall. So the pace is likely to be problematic. Any of the nine runners could lead, by design, or on sufferance.
Knot In Wood is a 6f horse best on easy ground. Intrepid Jack is a 6f hold-up horse, who is likely to find this a sharp test. Northern Fling’s best form, so far, is with give in the ground. Indian Trail showed a modicum of form in Dubai but nothing in the two runs since. He is reunited with Dettori who has won twice on him in three runs, but that was in a golden patch of form last September. Fyodor has a first time visor. On a 7YOs 42nd race this looks like a sign of desperation, rather than a plan expected to produce a positive result. Invincible Force has first time blinkers. A first time visor back in September did not seem to make much difference. He has been beaten 10 lengths and 11 lengths in the last two runs in conditions which should have been OK.
Some of the above deficiencies are relative. Not sufficient reason to leave the horse out of calculations entirely. However if we do that just leaves Ebraam, Green Manalishi and Bond City. Bond City ran well last time and has Spencer in the saddle now. However he has managed to come 2nd four times and 3rd five times since winning two years ago. There is a worry that his form is deteriorating just a little quicker than his handicap mark. His trainers stats of one win and one second from 26 runs does not inspire confidence either. Green Manalishi can go well fresh. He won on his seasonal debut last year. His highest winning mark is 99 and he runs off 104 tomorrow. Ebraam is improving and seems to be developing more speed, judged by his 3rd to Bertoliver at Chester. He is however usually patiently ridden I am not confident that he would have the speed to out kick some of these if there is a modest early pace.
So I can think of good reasons against the chance of all nine runners. But somebody’s got to win.
Assuming that the race is run like this - hesitant start, horses pulling, steady pick up of the pace, several in a line, 2 or 3 furlong sprint - which horse will be best suited?
The answer I come up with .........
Will be posted tomorrow.
Update - If, as I suspect, it will be a slowly run race in the first two furlongs the one I would want on my side in the last furlong would be Green Manalishi. At times in his younger days he was a fast front runner. In the last two years he has tended to track the pace, and produced some of his best form on sharp tracks - Lingfield (AW), Epsom, Chester - using his excellent tactical speed. Usually ratings play an important part in a decision, but this time I believe it is all about how the race will unfold, and which horse has the best raw speed. Green Manalishi is actually bottom of my ratings, not that there is a big difference between the eight runners (Ebraam is out).
This sort of race is hard to read and you are more likely to get it spectacularly wrong, but I think it is worth a punt.
Selection - Green Manalishi @ 5/1 (generally)
Saturday 24th May - 2.55 Beverley - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
The going is reported as Good/Firm. Even with only seven runners a high draw is a definite advantage.
Blue Maeve was a regular front runner, but he has been off the track for 18 months. Not My Choice made all over 6f at Chester and with the rail draw is likely to want to lead again. A strongish pace is likely.
On all known form Blue Maeve and Vhujon are not good enough. Not My Choice won well last time and the horses he beat, Fathsta and Good Gorsoon have won well since. Nevertheless an official rating of 83 leaves him with a mountain to climb. Aegean Dancer also has a tough task and a win for him assumes that the other three all fail to run to their form.
Utmost Respect has run his best races over 6f on soft going. In those conditions he travels well and has a good cruising speed, but I doubt that he produce that at 5f, or on fast going. Looking at his efforts on Good ground at Newmarket last July, and on Good/Firm at York last week I would expect him to be well below his best at Beverley. It is a stiff uphill 5f, which is forgiving to this type of horse, but even so I expect a performance 7lb, or more, down on his best, and he also carries a 7lb penalty.
Look Busy won going away at Chester, and the Beverley 5f seems ideal for her. With the fillies allowance she is receiving chunks of weight, and is second on my ratings and with Timeform. At Chester she switched to the rail and got a good run up it, which means she was flattered to some extent. In this race she may have to slot in towards the rear, and make headway up the outside. Nevertheless all things considered she has a good chance.
Something’s chance depends on whether he is fit enough to do himself justice, and whether he can perform at or near his best over a stiff 5f. With Terry Mills he went well fresh, notably when a close third to Assertive and Borderlescott at Windsor, after a year off. He probably will not be 100%, but maybe he will not need to be? The stiff 5f I see as less of a problem. He is a free running horse who gets into his stride quickly and has raced in front rank in races like the Wokingham and Steward’s Cup. I have seen horses with less natural speed than him win over the Beverley 5f in similar races, including Fonthill Road, Philharmonic and Chookie Heiton. If this was a sharp 5f against fast front runners I would be worried, but it isn’t. He should get a good lead up the rail from Not My Choice.
No Selection
I have a lot of faith in Something and think he is a good price at 9/2 (Paddy Power) relative to his chance, but it is difficult to be objective when you are involved with a horse. Look Busy probably has the best chance, but the price is 2/1 and we do not bet at those odds.
Sunday 25th May - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going is Firm according to the official description, though the times and Going Stick indicate Good/Firm (Good).
Rain is due to arrive at 5am and stay around all day. So the going is likely to change.
Update - After 9mm of rain overnight and some more during the day the times suggest that the going is no quicker than Good/Soft. The horses are kicking the top off the turf and it will suit the soft ground performers better than the fast ground horses.
It is a tight handicap, but relying on those who like the soft seems the correct way to go i.e. Cape, Baby Strange, Pusey Street Lady, Angus Newz, possibly Phantom Whisper as well.
Cape won at Doncaster on Good/Soft in a race which has proved to be strong form. Following her home were Baby Strange, Tajneed, Damika, Turnkey and Pusey Street Lady, all who have run well since. Cape is actually 4 lb better in with Baby Strange than in that race, yet they have been going in opposite directions in the betting. Cape is now available at 6 (5/1) on Betfair and may even go longer. Baby Strange has been well backed but still available at 11/2. Express Wish is a possible danger but has not proved yet he can handle this ground.
Selection - Cape @ 6.0 or better on Betfair.
The Week Ahead (25th May)
Sun 25th - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap 3YO only
Mon 26th - 4.55 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 27th - 4.10 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 28th - 3.35 Great Leighs - 10f All Weather Conditions Stakes - Pinpoint
- 2.30 Great Leighs - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 4.10 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 8.05 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
Thurs 29th - 3.00 Great Leighs - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
- 3.30 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
- 4.50 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.40 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 30th - 2.10 York - 7f Class 3 Conditions Stakes - Something
- 7.50 Musselburgh - 5f Selling Stakes - Blackheath
- 3.55 York - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.40 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 31st - 3.55 York - 5f Heritage Handicap
- 2.10 Haydock - 6f Listed 3YO only - Sandy Lane Stakes
- 2.45 Haydock - 6f Fillies Listed - Cecil Frail Stakes
- 2.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.40 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Classified Stakes 3YO only
Sun 1st - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.15 Chantilly - 5f Group 2 - Prix Du Gros-Chene
Tuesday 27th May - 4.10 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fast ground, some rain but not enough to make a big difference.
Ocean Blaze was a bit unlucky to be touched off by Zowington at Lingfield. There she was settled towards the rear in a race where there was enough front runners for three 5f sprints. Today is a different situation entirely and she could make all. Thanks to the Racing Post’s enthusiastic write up I was expecting her to be too short a price to be of interest. However 3/1 is now available with Sportingbet, and that is OK. The money has come for Hypnosis who is a danger if she can return to the form of a year ago.
Selection - Ocean Blaze @ 3/1 (Sportingbet)
Wednesday 28th May - 8.05 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
A clash between two of the best up and coming 3YO sprinters. Corrybrough and Inxile. Corrybrough will be a short price. Can he be beaten?
The going is currently Good/Firm with some rain on the way. Corrybrough has the best draw, and Inxile is also drawn high. Inxile is a front runner. Corrybrough a hold up horse who needs a stiff 5f or 6f. Beverley is a stiff 5f.
There is only one no-hoper in the field and it is a competitive race, on paper. So I imagine there will be plenty of competition for the rail tracking/chasing Inxile. At Leicester over 6f Inxile looked every inch a 5f specialist. In France again over 6f on very soft ground he again lost out only in the final furliong, so the 5f and faster ground should see an improved performance.
Wednesday 28th May - 2.30 Great Leighs - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
This race has the same feel to it as the one that Lord Of The Reins won from Misaro and Almaty Express on 24th April. That day they went a suicidal pace and Lord Of The Reins was detached last until the final furlong. All the way up the straight New York Oscar was stuck in a pocket on the rails behind tiring horses. It is anyone’s guess how he would have done without that misfortune but I think he would have gone reasonably close.
Today there is an 11lb turn around in the weights and New York Oscar is back below his last winning mark. Silver Prelude, Almaty Express, Diane’s Choice and Hammer Of The Gods are bound to serve up a strong pace which should suit Lord Of The Reins and New York Oscar.
Ice Planet has not raced over 5f for three years and Russian Symphony has never done so. It is unlikely that the shorter trip will suit either of them.
Friday 30th May - 2.10 York - 7f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
There is a first time for everything and I am going to make a selection in a 7f race. Because Something is in this race I had a good look at it and what impressed me was the presence of at least three front runners. There is a fair chance that they will go too fast and come back to the tracker/hold up horses. New Seeker seems to have to front run, and Celtic Sultan is a natural front runner whose best runs have been from the front. The same goes for Levera. Something does not have to race front rank. Arguably his best run, just beaten by Assertive and Borderlescott, was at Windsor this time last year where he chased the leaders in mid div. Adrian mentioned to me that Johnny Murtagh thought he might be best tucked in. Anyway with the situation as it is Adrian could be front rank or hold him up. Who knows. He may not be fit enough to do himself justice yet.
No, the one that stands out in this scenario is Advanced. He seems to be the Pinpoint, Baltic King, Mine type that need a strong early gallop and the field coming back to them. He came close to winning a 7f Listed race at York in August. Was rated 114 only a few runs ago. Showed something like his best form in the Abernant, first home of the disadvantaged group that raced on the far side.
Well I shall probably have egg on my face after this one but -
Selection - Advanced @ 16/1 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 31st May - 3.55 York - 5f Heritage Handicap
Good going. The visual impression and times suggested that it may be a little loose, but there was a headwind. It should dry up a fraction particularly where the ground is opened up. The centre still looks the best place to be.
The pace is split with front runners on either wing, Bertoliver (1) low and Tabaret (19) and Ishetoo (17) high. I expect them to veer towards the centre in which case there is going to be some crowding and hard luck stories in the middle. In this scenario anything in the middle that is held up or tardy in the stalls is going to be shuffled back. Stalls 2-13 are all chasers/hold-up horses who will be getting in each others way. So luck in running and a handy pitch will be at a premium in this race if I have read it correctly.
Ishetoo impressed me at Thirsk. He was very unlucky to run into Manzila there, and is one of the few in this race that look to have substantial improvement in them. Fantasy Explorer was also beaten into second place by a filly who it turned out was well ahead of the handicapper. In his case Mondovi, who this time was ignored by the punting footballers, drifted like the Kon-Tiki from an early 15/2 to 14/1, and won comfortably. Very amusing. Anyway Fantasy Explorer looked to be getting back towards the sort of form which promised so much two years ago. River Falcon goes well at York (3 wins) though he is 3lb above his highest winning mark. Machinist has been running like a horse ready to score, but 5f at York has to be a bit too quick for him. Then there are at least ten others who at their very best and if the luck goes their way could win.
However four have the edge on my ratings - Ishetoo, Fantasy Explorer, Green Park and Tabaret. Green Park requires more testing conditions. Tabaret has a bad draw, would probably prefer quicker ground and has Ishetoo between him and the centre. If Ishetoo gets to the centre in a prominent position he should have every chance. Fantasy Explorer is a tracker who should get a good tow off of Ishetoo. I am aware that it is the same plan that failed to deliver with Bertoliver and Fyodor two weeks ago but I am inclined to give it another chance. In an exceptionally competitive race the choice is Ishetoo and Fantasy Explorer.
Selections - Ishetoo @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes) and Fantasy Explorer @ 16/1 (Blue Square, Bet Direct and Stan James)
Update - The market is convinced that the winner will come from the low numbers. Normally my preference would be to be drawn centre/low. The reasons are that for many years there have been softer patches near the stand rail which should be avoided early in the race and with compaction down the centre from racing there over the years it is at least as fast there as anywhere else. What there is at York is a bias in favour of those racing close to the pace, and as the front runners invariably make for the centre the bias is in favour of the centre. It does not matter too much where you start from and how you get there, as long as you do so quickly. There is no low draw bias as such. Tournedos won from stall 1 of 11 (i.e. down the centre) on the 15th May because Silvestre De Sousa judged the pace better than the other jockeys. Stolt won yesterday from stall 1 of 15 (i.e. not against the far rail) because he got a flyer. The favourite in stall 2 who came second was the best horse in the race at the weights. The horses that followed them home were drawn 12,11,15 and 13. In a 20 runner field the place to avoid is close to the stands rail, the place to be is usually in the centre. However with the best pace likely to be on either wing, a draw in the centre could be a problem for some today.
Anyway all that waffle brings me to the point which is that Ishetoo is now 10/1 with several firms and could well go longer at some point. Fantasy Explorer is presently 25/1 with Sportingbet. I doubt if it will last long.
Saturday 31st May - 2.10 Haydock - 6f Listed Stakes 3YO only
Good going. The two most likely winners would seem to be Fat Boy and Look Busy. Look Busy has been running at 5f and it remains to be seen whether she is as effective at 6f. As a 2YO the conclusion would have been that she was equally effective and she did finish strongly at Beverley last Saturday.
Saturday 31st May - 2.45 Haydock - 6f Fillies Listed Stakes
Dark Missile is head and shoulders above these on ratings. The conditions are fine for her and there is enough pace in the race to give her a lead to halfway. Unfortunately she will not be at a price to be worth a bet.
Saturday 31st May - 2.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Soft going and a possibility of a little more rain. The pace will be moderate because of the conditions. The likely front runners are C’Mon You Irons and The Lord.
The horses most likely to be at home in the conditions are Viking Spirit and Pawan. Conquest and C’Mon You Irons have not raced on very soft ground. Ebraam has been best at 5f on AW or easy ground so far. Swift Princess may be well suited to conditions but the sixth furlong is a slight question mark. Hurricane Spirit has been best on the All Weather. The Lord will probably need the race.
If I was confident about Viking Spirit’s fitness or Swift Princess form at 6f I would be closer to reaching a conclusion. As it is there are enough unknowns to be off-putting, and thanks to the Racing Post Swift Princess is likely to be too short in the betting to be of interest anyway.
No Selection
Sunday 1st June - 3.15 Chantilly - 5f Group 2 - Prix Du Gros-Chene
The going has softened to Soft overnight. The Chantilly 5f is flat but quite sharp, this race typically being run in 56 or 57 seconds. There is probably no draw advantage. Desert Lord (10) and Captain Gerrard (4) are the obvious contenders for front running and the pace should be quick.
The choice would have been Benbaun on faster going, but with further showers a possibility conditions look to have turned against him. If the ground got very slow the chances of the 6f horses like Marchand D’Or and Sir Gerry would be improved.
Thanks to the weather it has become a very open race and therefore there is no selection.