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The Week Ahead (3rd May)
Sun 3rd - 3.50 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap - Stan James Handicap
- 2.15 Salisbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Mon 4th - 2.30 Kempton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
- 5.00 Kempton - 6f Class 4 Fillies All Weather Handicap
Tues 5th - Blank
Wed 6th - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Thurs 7th - 3.00 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.35 Chester - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 8th - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 6.45 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
- 3.45 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.55 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 9th - Something - 2.15 Ascot - 7f Heritage Handicap - Victoria Cup
- 2.55 Nottingham - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.30 Nottingham - 6f Listed Fillies only
- 4.00 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.15 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 4.50 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 10th - 3.35 Longchamp - 5f Group 3 - Prix de Saint-Georges
Mon 11th - Pinpoint - 6.50 Windsor - 8f Listed - Royal Windsor Stakes
- 4.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The Post Mortem Ones To Watch List
This list will form and develop over the first few months of the season.
We will start with some long range predictions (in dark type) just for fun, for ten-to-follow lists and the like. Then others will be added as performances make horses worthy of inclusion. (Greyed out horses will be those included then removed from list following later performances)
(Wealth Warning - Once the season is underway inclusion on this list will not necessarily be a recommendation to back these horses. That depends on what race they are in and many other factors)
A List
Overdose, Utmost Respect, Noble Storm, Palace Moon, Sloop JohnB
B List
Dark Mischief, Fleeting Star, Laddies Poker Two, Lochstar, Master Lightfoot, Olympic Dream, Shifting Star, Something, Sonny Red, Master of Disguise, Amour Propre
Horses To Avoid
Matsunosuke (too high in the handicap for now. Needs a frantic gallop and fast ground)
Wednesday 6th May - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Good going (Good/Firm places). GS 7.7
A low draw, as ever, is very important. With no false rail, or soft going, or suicide pace coming to their rescue the high drawn runners need a lightning start or a miracle today. Osterhase and Little Edward are withdrawn.
Probably less fast front runners than usual at Chester. Angus Newz is not usually quick enough to be front rank over a sharp 5f. Invincible Force has his moments but is as likely to miss the break. Elhamri will be close to the pace but unlikely to be making it. An Tadh made all in his last run at Dundalk but getting to the front from stall 11 would require a big effort for which he would pay later in the race, so Murtagh is more likely to try to get a mid div position. An Tadh’s trainer is a man to note at Chester.
So unless Strike Up The Band or Adrian Nicholls mess up they should have a fairly comfortable lead to the straight. Sohraab looks to be the biggest danger though he is inconsistent, runs more poor races than good and has a new jockey today.
Fyodor is usually held up at the back, which should be a big disadvantage today. Good Gorsoon went well at Chester last year but his last good run is nearly a year ago.
Selection - Strike Up The Band @ 4/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power)
Update - Fyodor is out, which is a shame because it improves everybody else’s draw and makes it easier for them to get a reasonable position. Hopefully that is the last of the non runners.
Friday 8th May - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Some overnight watering is a possibility.
The running rail will go out another 3 metres. When that happens the draw becomes a little less important with less compaction along the rail and more fanning out in the straight.
Doctor Parkes in stall 1 has switched stables and hasn’t run for eight months. In stall 2 is City Dancer, who impressed in a conditions stakes at Musselburgh but has plenty to do off 95. Saif Al Fahad (3) is another having his seasonal debut and I have him down as harshly handicapped.
In stall 4 is the first one on my short list, Parisian Pyramid. At Ripon he had the worst draw, an uncomfortable position on the outside but did very well in the circumstances. The way he raced suggested that there is a more speed there. His race at Chester on Thursday was a waste of time from a wide draw, dropped in at the back, never asked a question and free wheeling home. Nevertheless this gentle experience is a plus.
Noble Storm is on my Horses To Watch list after his super performance in defeat at Sandown. There he ran very freely up with the pace giving the impression that he has masses of speed. He would have gone faster with any encouragement. Nevertheless he kept on very well to draw clear of a good field. That performance took the eye to the extent that I believe he can confound the draw from stall 7. Look Busy won this race last year from the same stall.
Selection - Noble Storm @ 5/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Totesport)
Friday 8th May - 3.45 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Handicap
Fast ground.
This race was run at a blinding pace last year, and with Merlin’s Dancer and Bertoliver in the field it’s going to be the same again. Bertoliver was a bit disappointing at Epsom and maybe he has lost a touch of his speed for his new stable, as he was not as quick as Merlin’s and Wotashirtfull and soon got covered up with predictable consequences. Lochstar is on my Horses To Watch list, but has the worst draw and this sharp 5f may be a bit much for him first time out.
Ocean Blaze was a slightly unlucky 2nd last year to Zowington (in course record time) off 76, and runs off 74 here. She tracked the pace last year and should get a good tow from Merlin’s in the next stall.
Selection - Ocean Blaze @ 9/1 (Stan James)
Fri 8th - 6.55 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Firm (GS 9.0). Only a spot of rain overnight.
Low draws best when the field all race stand side.
There should be plenty of pace down the stand rail with Steel Blue (1), High Curragh (4) and Malcheek (6) all front runners when they get the chance. The way that the pace is set up it could be very advantageous to be tracking along the rail. Sunrise Safari (2) is in pole position to take advantage and go one better than at Newcastle behind Tamagin. Tylicki takes 5lb off, which is a bonus. Favourite Solar Spirit (9) has a poor draw.
What more could you ask for?
Selection - Sunrise Safari @ 4/1 (Stan James, Paddy Power)
Saturday 9th May - 4.00 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going. Probably no draw advantage.
It is by no means clear where the pace is coming from in this race. Seamus Shindig made all at Newmarket in August but usually does not have the speed to get front rank. Mujood used to be a 6f front runner, but that was two seasons ago, and even then he did not have the speed to do it on a consistent basis.
Watching Obe Gold at Pontefract it looked to me that he was reluctant to go through gaps. If Adrian had switched him to the outside he would have picked up. Here he is drawn in the middle but it would take no great skill to get him to either wing if the jockey wants to. A lack of early pace often has the field spread waiting for a lead and he would be able to take a prominent position where he wants. I regard Obe Gold as the best handicapped horse in the race. Maybe I should know better by now but I will give Obe Gold another chance.
Selection - Obe Gold @ 8/1 (Skybet, Bet365)
Saturday 9th May - 3.30 Nottingham - 6f Listed Fillies only
A race riddled with uncertainty.
Although giving weight I have Lesson In Humility and Look Busy 10lbs and more clear. Lesson In Humility is having her seasonal debut and probably has bigger fish to fry later in the season. If she is 100% she should win. Look Busy runs 5f as if 6f would be OK. However her record says that she runs out of stamina after 5f, and is unlikely to run within 7lb of her 5f best today.
If any of the others had significant improvement or something else specifically in their favour it might be worth taking a chance on them. But they haven’t. To add to the uncertainty the going is Firm and some of these will probably not act on it. One who is very likely to run her race is Carcinetto who could be a reasonable place bet at 22/1.
No Selection
Saturday 9th May - 4.15 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Another difficult race. Tamagin now in first time blinkers following his win at Newcastle is a surprise. He should get an uncontested lead, but won’t have the golden rail highway he had at Newcastle and has some classy opposition. Royal Rock is fragile but possibly best caught fresh. He is lightly raced with more improvement likely to come and my idea of the most likely winner with juice in the ground following some welcome rain. Zidane is best in the big field races with a flat out gallop. His form in the Abernant and choice of jockey here give no cause for thinking he will get back to his best in this race. Redford has yet to prove he will be as good at 6f, and he is not as good as Royal Rock anyway on my ratings.
Selection - Royal Rock @ 5/1 (generally)
Sunday 10th May - 3.35 Longchamp - 5f Group 3 - Prix de Saint-Georges
Good going, but they are expecting some rain.
Only seven runners and probably no draw advantage. Inxile seems to be the only likely front runner.
I remain to be convinced that Marchand d’Or is as effective at 5f as he is at 6f. 6f on soft going is his optimum. However in the Prix Du Gros-Chene and Prix L’Abbaye he showed that he can be very effective at 5f with plenty of ease in the ground. If the ground turns soft today it will be strongly in his favour. If not then Inxile could beat him. Marchand d’Or conceeds 8lb which I believe is roughly the difference between them over 5f.
Benbaun is not as good as he was. Contest would be a contender at 6f, but his 5f form is not as good.
Update - The time of the French 2,000 Guineas (1.36ish) suggests that conditions are reasonably quick. In which case Inxile definitely has a chance against Marchand d’Or.
Selection - Inxile @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes). Which is a good price but for the greedy it may pay to wait for Parisians to lump on their favourite.
The Week Ahead (10th May)
Mon 11th - Pinpoint - 6.50 Windsor - 8f Listed - Royal Windsor Stakes
- 4.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 12th - 7.20 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 Fillies All Weather Handicap
Wed 13th - 3.10 York - 6f Group 2 - Duke Of York Stakes
Thurs 14th - 1.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.45 York - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
Fri 15th - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Listed 3YO only - Carnarvon Stakes
- 3.45 York - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.20 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.55 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 16th - 3.45 Newbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.15 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.50 Thirsk - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.25 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 17th - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Monday 11th May - 4.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Firm going (GS 8.4), but Yarmouth is often overwatered so some caution required. However there will be a strong drying wind.
Dvinsky is a busy front running All Weather horse who rarely runs on the turf. He did run well enough at Pontefract on 7th April though. As usual he tried to make all but unfortunately for him he gave a perfect tow to Pickering and was picked off up the hill in the final furlong. Before that, to find when he ran on turf, you have to go back 26 races to this very race last year. Then he flopped when joint favourite coming 4th of 5. On the All Weather he is capable of winning or going close off marks in the mid 80s. On turf he is rated a stone lower and runs off 70 today. I am sure that given a reasonable chance on the turf he could prove just as effective on it. Two years ago when he was running more often on turf he was rated higher on turf than on the AW. A flat track should suit.
One dark cloud on the horizon is For Life. He has run freely in front rank the past few times and could make Dvinsky go too fast too early. Nevertheless Dvinsky is a value bet at current odds.
Selection - Dvinsky @ 9/1 (Corals)
Wednesday 13th May - 3.10 York - 6f Group 2 - Duke Of York Stakes
Good/Firm. GS 8.9. Forecast - mainly dry. Stalls - Far Side
It is unusual for the stalls to be placed on the far side, so I suspect there is some reason connected with the new drainage why the Clerk of the Course has taken this decision. Traditionally sprints were decided down the centre of the course with an arrowhead formation developing and a need to be either close to the pace, or getting a good tow in the centre. Apart from the probability that all compaction has been eliminated it remains to be seen what bias, if any, is left.
Pace was always key at York. In this Duke Of York Stakes there are three obvious pacemakers - Tax Free (6), Equiano (1) and Captain Gerrard (10). It is possible that Equiano will stay on the far rail, but I expect to see the other two, at least, going down the centre. In the Abernant Stakes Tax Free and Equiano slugged it out in the lead but although they finished first and second it is clear that they are both better at 5f than 6f. The proximity of Orpsie Boy and Exclamation drags the Abernant form several pounds below what will be needed at York. Captain Gerrard is also a 5f horse.
Tracking the front runners down the centre could be ideal and the most likely to benefit may be Hitchens (5), Strike The Deal (7) and Edge Closer (9). Utmost Respect needs give. Sir Gerry is best on easy ground also. King’s Apostle is suited by some ease but anyway has to give 3lb to the rest. So along with the front runners I would dismiss these three.
The short list comes down to - Edge Closer, Intrepid Jack, and Strike The Deal.
Of these only Strike The Deal has shown form so far this season. His fourth to Amour Propre was a good effort as I expected him to be unsuited by a fast 5f, and quite possibly taken off his feet. In the event he kept within about five lengths of some very fast horses and was staying on strongly at the end.
Selection - Strike The Deal @ 10/1 (Corals)
Thursday 14th May - 1.40 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The going on the first day was not as fast as seemed likely. There was some rain in the afternoon and more is forecast.
So either Good going or Good/Soft seem the most likely.
There was no draw advantage in the Duke of York Stakes.
Three front runners here - Strike Up The Band, Hamish McGonagall and Stolt - which suggests a good rather than breakneck pace.
The short list is Hamish McGonagall and Northern Fling. There is probably more improvement in Hamish Mc and he is well suited by easy ground. Northern Fling is now on 93, 3lb below his last winning mark, goes well on easy going and pops up in the winners enclosure when you least expect it. His starting prices for the last three wins - 18/1, 25/1 and 20/1. Basically he seems under-rated by his stable but he ran well in last years Wokingham off 102 despite not getting a clear run. No doubt the plan is to try again. For that he will need a higher rating. The booking of Philip Makin looks unpromising, for what appears the stable fourth string, but I remember Blackheath winning the Scottish Steward’s Cup with Makin riding. Conditions look right for Northern Fling.
Of the favourites Tournedos looked ready to win in his recent Chester run from a bad draw, but his win in this race last year off a 2lb lower mark owed everything to a suicidal pace and a typically cool and patient ride by Silvestre. Everymanforhimself
though well handicapped may find things happening a bit too quickly. Cheveton has a solid chance but there are some that are better handicapped. As for Sonny Red, I think that he needs really soft ground to be effective at 5f.
Selection - Northern Fling @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill etc)
Thursday 14th May - 3.45 York - 5f Conditions Stakes 3YO Only
An interesting 3YO sprint featuring several who will be contesting good handicaps and pattern races as the season unfolds.
Waffle’s narrow Cornwallis defeat by Amour Propre reads well now. Rievaulx World showed exceptional speed to lead the same horse in the Palace House Stakes. These two will surely be slugging it out in 5f Listed and Group races to come. Aldermoor is dropping back to 5f after running freely over 6f at Newmarket. He may do a little better allowed to stride on. City Dancer did her status no harm at Chester running on strongly having missed the break. She could be a strong contender but Hanaghan rides instead of her 5lb claimer. The Doctor Parkes/Noble Storm/City Dancer form is particularly strong and the colts may have trouble conceding her 5lb.
Selection - City Dancer @ 11/2 (William Hill)
Friday 15th May - 4.20 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Good going on Thursday and lots of rain due from breakfast time. I am assuming that the going will be Good/Soft or slower.
There seemed to be a definite far rail advantage on Thursday, but that ground will be the worn and will be most affected by the expected rain. So the rail could be the worst place to be on Friday.
Not a lot of pace in the race so I expect those who lie handy to have the edge.
Update - The going is Good/Soft. A moderate pace would not be what some of the horses being backed require.
Harrison George has been heavily backed, understandably because he is a horse with a future. However to date he has needed a strong pace and/or very soft ground to show his best. This may not quite be a sufficient enough test for him. Rising Shadow has also been well backed but he does need a good pace and testing conditions. Excusez Moi and Harrison George are the ones I am worried about, but Valery Borzov will lead or stay handy which will be an advantage if the race pans out how I am expecting. He has his ground and is 1lb below the rating he ran off when beaten a head in the Great St Wilfred.
Selection - Valery Borzov @ 9/1 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 16th May - 3.45 Newbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going description has been changed to Soft, following 22mm of rain in 24 hours.
Not many of these have proved themselves in soft conditions. Indeed only Main Aim, Perfect Flight and Phantom Whisper have shown their best on ground this soft. Sundae, who is a fragile horse, has also shown his best on easy ground. Esteem Machine has one bad run to his name on soft but his trainer is saying he prefers it. Of the others Aye Aye Digby is the most likely not to be inconvenienced. As usual with soft ground one horse may suddenly show form on it for the first time to general surprise.
Main Aim is 2/1 favourite for three reasons - impressive win at Doncaster (3rd five lengths back), Michael Stoute, Group One entries. However the Donnie win was followed by two poor runs, Stoute’s record with sprinters is nothing special, and Main Aim is 40/1 plus for the Group Ones and only £10 has been matched at those sort of prices. I recall the same sort of scenario with Tawaassol in 2006 and he never really justified his Group entries or won another race. I fear Main Aim but 2/1 is a stupid price (see Harrison George yesterday).
From a betting point of view it is best to sidestep the favourite and concentrate on those horses known to be favoured by the conditions or with good evidence to suggest they will be. With Mac Gille Eoin out, Spanish Bounty is the only usual front runner. Aye Aye Digby may also be ridden prominently and Esteem Machine did used to front run a while ago. The best guess is an average pace for the conditions.
Perfect Flight would have been declared expecting faster conditions and perhaps this is just intended as a pipeopener prior to going to one of the downhill tracks (Goodwood) on which she has excelled.
Phantom Whisper is now 1lb above the mark he won from twice last year. He is reunited with Alan Munro who has three wins on him. He goes very well on soft ground as last years win at Chepstow demonstrated. The only doubt is whether he will be 100% quite yet. His run behind Chief Editor was promising, the run at Ascot less so. It is worth a chance at the price available.
Selection - Phantom Whisper @ 20/1 (Blue Square, Stan James, Skybet etc)
Saturday 16th May - 4.15 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Handicap
According to the Thirsk Racecourse website the going is Good, Good/Soft (GS 10.0) following 11mm of rain overnight.
On another track GS 10.0 would be Good/Firm or Firm so it is difficult to feel confident about the description. Anyway some more rain is due. Best to wait for the early races to see what the times tell us.
Update - The times of the first two races suggest Good going. There has also been some rain.
The 2YO race was fought up the stand rail by high drawn horses, so the usual Thirsk high draw advantage is likely in place.
Cape Vale has his optimum conditions. The Musselburgh run was creditable in the circumstances. If Adele rides rather than Adrian switching from Indian Trail the claim and a patient ride should be a plus. Stablemate Legal Eagle is one threat but he has a worse draw. Osteopathic Remedy could be a problem if he has the speed and is allowed to lead.
Selection - Cape Vale @ 5/1 (Sportingbet, Betfair)
Sunday 17th May - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Good/Soft going and some showers due to come.
Ponty Rossa appeared on her way back to her 2007 form when doing best of the far group over course and distance on 16th April. Now that her stable are back in some form she can take the next step in this race. The 8 draw would usually lead me to pass on the bet but if anything it has looked worse to be against the stand rail in meetings this year. Angus Newz and Carcinetto should ensure a good pace, which is what Ponty Rossa needs. The easy ground will help as well.
Selection - Ponty Rossa @ 6/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (17th May)
Sun 17th - 3.40 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Mon 18th - 8.40 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 19th - 6.40 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Wed 20th - Blank
Thurs 21st - 4.35 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 7.05 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 22nd - 7.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 23rd - 3.10 Haydock - 5f Group 2 - Temple Stakes
- 2.35 Haydock - 6f Fillies Listed - Cecil Frail Stakes
- 5.25 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Coral Sprint
- 4.10 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.10 Curragh - 6f Group 3 - Greenlands Stakes
Sun 24th - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap 3YO only
Mon 25th - Pinpoint - 3.10 Goodwood - 10f Listed - Festival Stakes
- 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.15 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Thursday 21st May - 4.35 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Good going on the straight track (GS 8.4), drying out a bit. No clear sign of a draw advantage.
Pace from Judge N Jury, Cake and Osiris Way should be reasonable.
Several of these have form against each other over course and distance, and there are six course winners. Four runners are having their seasonal debut. Three of them can be overlooked but Osiris Way won first time out last year.
Whilst Rowe Park won recently at Lingfield he still does not seem to be back to his peak and is possibly a little high in the handicap. Judge N Jury will probably come back to his best soon but he may need juice in the ground to do so. Little Edward looks to be too high in the ratings, and Osiris Way is possibly too high on 95, following a soft win at Bath. So the short list comes down to Cake, Crimson Fern and Little Pete.
On a stiff track such as Sandown or Bath the favourite Crimson Fern would have been the choice. She has front run at Sandown with a good result but is usually held up. Following Bath Richard Hughes should know how to get the maximum from her. However the downhill swoop at Goodwood suits some more than others and we know that Cake and Little Pete are very effective on the track. Cake had everything go for her last time and is now 2lb worse with Little Pete. The first time cheekpieces will probably make no difference at all. Little Pete seems to go through gaps OK and is not obviously distracted or intimidated. Hopefully they will just use the usual tactics with which he would stand every chance. The 6/1 available is a good price.
Selection - Little Pete @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
Friday 22nd May - 7.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going was Very Soft, bordering on Heavy at Haydock on Thursday. With a little more rain forecast on Friday it can only be very testing. Which is good because the winner will probably come from those who have shown their best form on very soft going.
There is a lot of pace in the race. Foxy Music, Bertoliver and Wotashirtfull are fast front runners and Le Toreador and Equuleus Pictor also go from the front.
The short list is - Divine Spirit, Foxy Music, Luscivious, Wotashirtfull and Rothesay Dancer.
Update - The most likely winner is possibly Divine Spirit who is clearly in excellent form and goes in quite testing conditions without being an out and out mudlark. Foxy Music has won over course and distance on heavy ground. Indeed it is his only win and he is down to the same mark again. He has a better chance than his 16/1 odds (Skybet) suggest. But for me the most suited to these conditions is Luscivious. He ran an OK 3rd at Wolverhampton but really needs a slog to be seen at his best. Although the impression he gives is of a rather sulky inconsistent horse he has won 4 of his 38 starts, which is par for the course for handicap sprinters. He won twice last Spring at Beverley on soft and at Southwell, is now off his lowest mark since 2YO days and a competent apprentice takes off 7lb. He has a much better chance than his price suggests.
Selection - Luscivious @ 25/1 (bet365) and 20/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power, Betfred, Stan James) with Mandurah and Le Toreador withdrawn.
Saturday 23rd May - 3.10 Haydock - 5f Group 2 - Temple Stakes
Soft ground, possibly very soft. No draw advantage likely.
This race is packed with pace. Rievaulx World usually leads any race he is in. Masta Plasta and Captain Gerrard are other fast front runners. Tax Free often leads and Amour Propre, Reverence and Borderlescott normally press the pace.
Conditions look to be very slow which leads me to think that a horse capable of staying a very stiff 5f or 6f and proven on soft ground is what is required.
Selection - Borderlescott @ 9/2 Antepost (William Hill)
Saturday 23rd May - 2.35 Haydock - 6f Fillies Listed - Cecil Frail Stakes
Heavy ground, which only a minority of horses can handle. This will be a slog. Lesson In Humility and Angus Newz are front runners, and Pusey Street Lady and Carcinetto often race prominently. So there will be no hanging around.
Lesson In Humility has won on soft but is a speed horse, perhaps not suited by very testing conditions. Pusey Street Lady goes well on soft, but is by no means consistent, and has only three pieces of form which give her a fair chance. Possibly she needs to race wide of other horses and she tends to hang left. There is a big question mark against Adorn on heavy ground, though she is by Kyllachy. Mullein handles some give but whether she is suited by heavy going after a poor run when favourite in the Ayr Silver Cup is anyone’s guess.
Aine was 2nd in this race last year, goes well on heavy ground but wears blinkers for the first time. However her trainer probably has had this race in mind for quite some time so presumably the blinkers are part of the plan. Aine can track Angus Newz and last out the slog better than the other main contenders.
Selection - Aine @ 6/1 (Skybet, William Hill)
Update - Lesson In Humility and Carcinetto are out which improves Pusey Street Lady’s chance. She will be able to run her own race without the threat of being tightened up or intimidated. At 10/1 with those two out she is a value alternative to Aine.
Saturday 23rd May - 3.10 Curragh - 6f Group 3 - Greenlands Stakes
Very heavy going. Almost unraceable with more rain due just before racing.
In these conditions two horses stand out for me, Utmost Respect and Jumbajukiba. Snaefell should also give a good account but is not as good as the other two.
Jumbajukiba is the only front runner in the field and if he gets an easy lead he will be quite difficult to pass, as he was at Navan. The conditions are absolutely ideal for him. He has won four Group 3 races at The Curragh and gets 2lb from Utmost Respect. Perhaps Utmost Respect will come with that long withering run of his and justify favouritism, but he has a tough task on. If they were both 3/1 it would not be an easy choice, but Utmost Respect is 11/8 and Jumbajukiba 7/1. It is a no brainer.
Selection - Jumbajukiba 2 pts @ 7/1 (Sportingbet) and 13/2 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
Saturday 23rd May - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Good (Good/Soft). Probably best to check the draw bias in the first races before reaching a conclusion.
Saturday 23rd May - 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Coral Sprint
Good/Firm. Though the times yesterday, the watering and the GS at 8.1 all suggest that it will be close to Good.
They will probably race down the middle.
At Ripon Proclaim did not look like a July Cup entry to me. But I cast doubt about Main Aim’s Group One entries and that did not do me any good. By sprint standards Proclaim is a relentless galloper who should go well. However I prefer Dark Lane who seems to have more speed. He would probably have won further at Haydock but for the easy going and the fact that he pulled like a train for two furlongs. That he still found enough is in his favour imo. Others may describe it as a well backed favourite who travelled like the best horse in the race but only scrambled home. I think he will do better tracking a faster
pace.
Selection - Dark Lane @ 6/1 (Coral, Stan James, William Hill)
Sunday 24th May - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Good/Firm going. GS 8.7
No draw advantage in yesterday’s races.
One year ago Abraham Lincoln was just being touched off by stablemate Astronomer Royal in the Group 3 Greenlands Stakes on firm going. He went on to run a fair race in the King’s Stand, for a 6f horse. Though he never justified the 107 rating he had then he is now down to 96 with Dandy, which is a mark he can win off. After a respectful 2nd to Royal Rock at Haydock he ran a good race to chase Valery Borzov at York finishing 3rd just behind Harrison George. The soft ground would not have helped and the fact that it is much the best he has run on easy ground gives cause for optimism back on his optimum fast ground today. His price may be helped by Adrian ‘choosing’ Striking Spirit though Dandy watchers will know that his stables horses do not often win back to back handicaps. Both are in the Wokingham and probably need a penalty to get in.
Thebes, Striking Spirit and Mac Gille Eoin should set a good pace. Whilst Abraham Lincoln is drawn away from that trio, a good early pace should soon see the field racing in a group down the centre.
Selection - Abraham Lincoln @ 5/1 (Stan James, William Hill, Skybet etc)
The Week Ahead (24th May)
Sun 24th - 4.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap 3YO only
Mon 25th - Pinpoint - 3.10 Goodwood - 10f Listed - Festival Stakes
- 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.15 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 26th - 3.40 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 27th - 4.10 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 Condition Stakes (AW)
- 7.50 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
Thurs 28th - 3.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 3.30 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 4.50 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.40 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 29th - 3.55 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.10 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 30th - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Listed - Achilles Stakes
- 4.10 Haydock - 6f Listed 3YO only - Sandy Lane Stakes
- 2.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Classified Stakes (0-95) 3YO only
- 3.45 York - 5f Heritage Handicap - Knavesmire Sprint Cup
Sun 31st - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.40 Chantilly - 5f Group 2 - Prix du Gros-Chene
Tuesday 26th May - 3.40 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Firm. Probably no draw advantage. Pace from Le Toreador, Stolt and Discanti.
Selection - Le Toreador @ 6.00 on Betfair at 3.35pm
Wednesday 27th May - 7.50 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
The going is currently described as Good/Firm (Good) after some light rain, with a little more to come.
It remains to be seen if the usual high draw advantage will be in place. Anyway with only seven horses of widely different abilities and lots of pace I think they will soon be strung out and the draw will be of limited importance.
Noble Storm impressed me in the races at Sandown and Chester. He has masses of speed but clearly stays a stiff 5f well and may even end up best at 6f. At Chester he gave an ideal lead to Doctor Parkes who picked him off. Doctor Parkes may be pretty special over a sharp 5f. There are two other confirmed front runners in the race, Sir Geoffrey and Glamorous Spirit. Depending on how fast those two go Noble Storm could take a lead to halfway. The favourite is Waffle whose reputation as a high class sprinter rests solely on his close second to Amour Propre at Ascot where the two of them raced on their own down the stand rail. That is a fragile basis for regarding Waffle as superior to Noble Storm.
Selection - Noble Storm @ 4.7 and 4.8 (7/2) on Betfair. Also available at 3/1 Stan James and Betfred
Wednesday 27th May - 4.10 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 Condition Stakes (AW)
A good standard Conditions race. Strike The Deal and Valery Borzov are not that far behind the best, and Mutheeb has potential to be a Group horse.
Two fast front runners, Tamagin and Valery Borzov. Nota Bene has also done plenty of front running in his time. What these three decide to do will decide the shape of the race, and quite possibly the result too. Adrian’s inclination is to try to dominate if he can, so will Tamagin get a good break, and take him on? Will Adrian accept a position tracking Tamagin? The chances are that the the two horses have come down from Yorkshire in the same van!
Strike The Deal is the obvious one. His limitations were exposed at York, but a repeat of that would probably be good enough. The worry I have about STD is that he is a galloper who does not seem to have much tactical pace. Having looked likely to get past Tax Free in the Duke of York Stakes he could find only one pace, and eventually the pair were mown down by Utmost Respect anyway. Tactical pace to get into a good position then take the gap, when it comes, is very handy at Lingfield.
Mutheeb is for the guessers. How strong was his win over Mia’s Boy at Yarmouth really? How much improvement is there in him? Will he be suited by 6f? On the videos he looks like a very nice horse, with a high cruising speed, but how good is that?
Valery Borzov has been at his best on soft ground front running, but ran a good race having tracked the pace in the Great St Wilfred. The chances of him getting things all his own way today are probably not that good. There is just an outside chance that Tamagin could win with a repeat of his Newcastle front running
The others do not look good enough even in the event of the two extremes, a suicidal pace or a tactical front runners truce.
Thursday 28th May - 8.40 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm (Good places). Narrowing of the course puts any stand rail draw bias in doubt.
This race lacks for a natural front runner. Several have front run reasonably successfully in the distant past but it is anyone’s guess what shape this race will take. Whatever it will probably not suit the favourite Osteopathic Remedy who ran a good race at Thirsk held up at the back of a strong pace. It is seems unlikely that he will prove to be as effective at 6f as he is at 8f unless he gets in a stiffer test. Quest for Success is another who ideally would want further. Whilst well handicapped Baby Strange has yet to show his best form this season and in any case is best suited by easy ground. I would also prefer to see a stronger jockey.
Solar Spirit and Pavershooz are knocking on the door. Solar Spirit will be quite popular but I am slightly more interested in Pavershooz. He needs fast going and when he got that at Ripon he ran an excellent race just touched off by High Curragh. The jockey seemed to think that Pavershooz was holding High Curragh, and must have got a shock when the photo was called. The form of that race reads even better now because no less than seven of the horses who followed Pavershooz home - Vhujon, Earlsmedic, Ponty Rossa, Castles In The Air, Methaaly, Pacific Pride and Calmdownmate - have won since.
Pavershooz may have a little more tactical speed than Solar Spirit. I have their ratings the same. From a punting point of view Pavershooz’s run down the field behind Valery Borzov on soft going means that he is double Solar Spirit’s price, and so good value in a race where it is difficult to be at all confident because of the pace and draw uncertainties.
Selection - Pavershooz @ 9/1 (Skybet, VC)
Saturday 30th May - 3.45 York - 5f Heritage Handicap - Knavesmire Sprint Cup
Good/Firm (Good places)(GS 8.3). Draw advantage on the new well drained Knavesmire has probably not changed much and they are likely to race down the centre. The pace should be a good average, the most likely front runners being Siren’s Gift (13), Hamish McGonagall (12),and Bahamian Babe (10). Buachaill Dona may lead the low draws for a while.
The short list is Hamish McGonagall, Cheveton, Ishetoo, and Siren’s Gift. Ishetoo is down to just 1lb above the mark from which he annoyingly beat Princess Ellis at Musselburgh last August. With Jamie Kyne claiming 7lb he is a threat, though stall 15 is not a help. Hamish McGonagall and Cheveton have been slugging it out on a regular basis. They were first and second at Musselburgh in October and third and fourth a fortnight ago at York. There should be very little between them again. But the one like best of all is Siren’s Gift. She is back on the mark off which she looked all over the winner of the 2008 Portland until she just tired inside the last half furlong. Siren’s Gift has since gone very close in two listed races 2nd to Peace Offering at Newmarket, then just caught by Look Busy and Crimson Fern at Bath. The bare 5f on fastish ground will be ideal.
Selection - Siren’s Gift 2pts @ 6/1 (William Hill, Victor Chandler)
Saturday 30th May - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Listed - Achilles Stakes
On Friday evening the straight was Good/Soft (Good in places) despite a low GS reading (6.5). With drying conditions I am expecting the going tomorrow to be no slower than Good. Most were coming straight down the middle and with the ground opened up there, and drying out, it should be the fastest part of the track.
The pace should be fast with four speedy front runners - Peace Offering, Captain Gerrard, Foxy Music and Percolator. At his best Dandy Man would be a strong contender, but he needs faster going and is now lumbered with blinkers. Frankly they are the last thing he needs. Surrounded as he is with masses of pace what he needs is a strong patient rider who will settle him from the stalls and track the fast horses either side of him giving him as little daylight as possible.
Peace Offering has a penalty, whereas the 3YO fillies have quite a generous weight allowance of 13lbs.
The favourite is Royal Rock who was very impressive winning at Haydock over 6f on Good/Soft three weeks ago. I do not see him winning flat track 5f races, as his running style is to settled out of the stalls, allowed to find his stride and brought with a long steady run. He is obviously capable of travelling well at 6f pace, but these will be going much quicker, and I expect them to get him off the bridle within 2f. Anyway he has been a fragile horse and the time to catch him might have been first time out on the easy ground. At around 7/4, 7/1 bar, he certainly makes an attractive market. The difficulty is knowing which one might take advantage.
Update Saturday 9am
Hoh Hoh Hoh was very well regarded as a young horse but took an age to get his act together. Now at 6YO and 7YO he is beginning to show the form he was always considered capable of. Last time he split Amour Propre and Borderlescott in the Palace House Stakes having comfortably tracked Amour Propre most of the race. He is a lengthy powerful horse who could well improve a bit further, even at 7YO. I like him, but more to the point I think he can take care of this field in his optimum conditions with Ryan Moore a bonus.
Selection - Hoh Hoh Hoh @ 8/1 (Coral)
Saturday 30th May - 2.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Good going (GS 8.5)
The way the pace is distributed I would marginally prefer a high draw. Peter Island (10) is a fast front runner, but Osiris Way (8), Earls Medic (2) and Major Eazy (11) all enjoy forcing the pace, and Elhamri (3) will not be far behind.
High Standing is around 15/8 early. He is the type of horse who it is difficult for the handicapper to get fully to grips with. He travels smoothly at the back, moves through with a steady run and just does enough. Four wins and two seconds from the last six runs tell the story.
Shifting Star is the other one with obvious potential. His mid season hatrick was achieved in a very pleasing manner, but it was his staying on 3rd in a very tough race at Doncaster that really impressed me. Which is why he is on the horses to follow list. Rash Judgement also deserves respect.
High Standing is too short to back, but I do not really want to be taking him on.
No Selection
Saturday 30th May - 4.10 Haydock - 6f Listed 3YO only - Sandy Lane Stakes
To my surprise Sayif has been available at 3/1. He clearly has the best form in the race, and although his win at Leicester was a little laboured and two months ago he is now being trained for a sprinting campaign and I expect him to step up on
that. The biggest threats on my ratings are Spin Cycle and City Dancer but both of them have shown their best form over 5f on fast going. Also O’Hara cannot claim on City Dancer.
Selection - Sayif @ 3/1 (Sportingbet)