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The Week Ahead (29th June)
Sun 29th - 2.40 The Curragh - 5f Group 3 - Sapphire Stakes
- 2.55 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap 6YO+
Mon 30th - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Tues 1st - 8.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 8.50 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 2nd - 4.30 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 3rd - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.35 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 4th - 2.20 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.20 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 5th - Pinpoint - 2.35 Sandown - The Totescoop6 Stakes - 8f Heritage Handicap
- 4.10 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 4.45 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.10 Sandown - 5f Group Three - Champagne Lanson Sprint
- 3.30 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.45 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 6th - Blank
Monday 30th June - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Fillies handicaps are not a favourite of mine, and this one reads more like a poor Class 4, rather than anything better.
There is unlikely to be a selection.
Tuesday 1st July - 8.50 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This race looked very competitive last night but after four withdrawals it looks much less so. There should be a very strong pace from Almaty Express, Cape Royal, Classic Encounter, Windjammer and Brut.
The stand rail is usually the place to be drawn
Baybshambles, on my ratings, has the best chance and also has the best draw. He is a reasonable price following the withdrawal of two dangerous rivals and early morning favourites, Playful and Wibbadune.
Selection - Baybshambles @ 4/1 (William Hill, VC Bet)
Thursday 3rd July - 7.35 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going and showers forecast.
There is no natural front runner in the field. Perhaps Little Edward is the most likely to go on, as he tends to pull. There could be a three furlong sprint off a muddling pace.
A selection is likely.
Update midday -
Johannes was one of those horses who finish close up in a Listed or Group race at two years old, are put into the handicap on a much higher level than the form deserves and take an age to come down to a winnable mark. He has got there eventually and signalled his turn is due when finishing third to Everymanforhimself at Beverley last time. From a poor draw he got bumped and squeezed out at the stalls, went comfortably through the race, made up plenty of ground on the unfavoured outside and finished best of all. Two runs before he had given vain chase to Valery Borzov at Thirsk, also finishing third. 6f on fast ground is fine, and the possible lack of pace in the race should not be to his disadvantage as he is equally effective over 5f.
The Racing Post put him in their betting forecast at 10/1, but there was never a hope of getting that price thanks, in part, to the Betfair nibblers. He is now best priced 6/1, but I think he will probably go shorter through the afternoon. Sportingbet were the most likely to go bigger but have opened at 11/2. On Betfair he is favourite at around 5/1-11/2, and soon I think that those hoping for a better price will just take what is on offer.
Selection - Johannes @ 6/1 (William Hill, Ladbrokes, Totesport)
Friday 4th July - 2.20 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going. A false rail 4 yds in will make a big difference to the normal high draw advantage.
The Sandown 5f is one of the stiffest five furlongs in the country, but it is not as severe a test as Beverley. The best form in today’s race could be Sohraab’s win at York, or Osiris Way/Playful/Crimson Fern at Salisbury, or Strike Up The Band’s near miss at
Beverley. My ratings suggest it is the latter and Strike Up The Band would surely have won if ridden a little more patiently.
For me Sundae needs easy ground and 6f. Chartist is crying out for a sharp track and to be covered up, but has bags of ability. Tabaret’s handicap mark is probably high enough for now.
The false rail should make all the difference to worries about the draw. The normal Sandown high draw advantage is all about compaction/drainage producing a faster strip close to the rail. With the false rail in place the faster strip is taken out of the
equation. Apart from Strike Up The Band there is not a great deal of natural pace in the race. Tabaret will be prominent, Osiris Way, Crimson Fern and Chartist may be handy but I cannot see any of these taking on SUTB for the lead unless the jockeys leave their brains in the weighing room or are in “spoiling mode”. So within a furlong SUTB should be in the lead on the rail and cruising along. If so he should last home.
Selection - Strike Up The Band @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Update 10am - Golden Dixie and Chartist are out.
Saturday 5th July - 2.10 Sandown - 5f Group Three - Champagne Lanson Sprint
Good/Firm going. Today it looked to be best to be drawn near the far rail even though it has been brought in 4 yards.
Hoh Mike is the most likely winner but is trading under 2/1 overnight.
No Selection
Saturday 5th July - 4.10 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
A complicated race with some jokers in the pack. The jokers are Les Arcs (dual Group One winner in 2006. Is he in anything close to that form?), Advanced ( Handicap form more than good enough to win this, but he needs the very strong gallop and hustle and bustle of the big field sprint handicaps to bring out his best) and New Freedom (ex Brazilian via Dubai who showed promise in the Wokingham. Now with first time blinkers).
I think it’s best to forget the jokers.
Today the going was on the fast side of Good. Showers are on the way, but will probably not have a major effect on the going.
The two likeliest front runners are Reverence and Bentong, with Nota Bene handy. My guess is an average pace with a chance that a front runner could stay out front, particularly if little rain falls.
Let’s see how the weather goes.
Update - The going is likely to remain Good, perhaps just on the fast side. Several of these would have been favoured by the soft going expected a couple of days ago. Amongst these are Rising Shadow, Damika, Patavellian, Reverence and Knot In Wood.
Knot In Wood seems not to be quite at the level that he was this time last year, and would have a better chance with easier ground.
You can’t avoid the feeling that he is marking time waiting for another shot at a big handicap. Tombi would be a danger if progressing a little from his York win. Bentong is the other one which I think may have the best credentials for this particular race.
It is not a race to take a short price about anything. However it is worth a shot with the market leaders all having more doubts about them than the selection.
Selection - Bentong @ 10/1 (Skybet, Paddy Power)
Saturday 5th July - 3.30 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
High draw important. Going on the fast side of Good. Selection likely.
Update - Mambo Spirit is threatening to win with luck going against him in the last two races. Today he has the important high draw at Beverley and the stiff 5f on fast going are just fine. On ratings I have him well ahead of the winners last time out, The Nifty Fox and Bo McGinty.
Selection - Mambo Spirit @ 4/1 (VC Bet, Paddy Power, Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (6th July)
Sun 6th - Blank
Mon 7th - 3.45 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.20 Ripon - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 8th - 4.00 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 9th - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Toteswinger Stakes
- 7.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 10th - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 2.55 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.55 Nottingham - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Fri 11th - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Group One - July Cup
- 2.45 York - 6f Fillies Group Three - Summer Stakes
- 5.05 York - 5f Class 3 Apprentice Handicap
- 4.10 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.40 Chepstow - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 7.45 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 12th - 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Something
- 5.45 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.35 Chester - 5f Listed - City Wall Stakes
- 2.40 York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.15 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 13th - 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.50 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tuesday 8th July - 4.00 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
At present the going is described as Good. Going stick 7.0.
Norman Gundill, the Clerk of the Course at Pontefract, makes a habit of describing the going as what he would like it to be rather than what it is.
There is a low draw advantage which reduces as the going gets softer.
Update - Following the first race it seems that the going is on the easy side of Good. Not quite Good/Soft. The inside rail is sufficiently chewed up to be slower, and that there is a tailwind in the straight which should assist frontrunners. On the basis of these assumptions High Curragh would seem a better bet than Mr Wolf or John Keats at the prices.
Selection - High Curragh @ 9/1 (Stan James, Betdirect, Bet365)
Wednesday 9th July - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Heritage Handicap
Information on the 3YO handicappers accumulates all of the time but there is still much we do not know about them. A race to watch and learn from.
No Selection.
Friday 11th July - 3.10 Newmarket - July Cup
Tuesday - Lots of rain on its way Wednesday night. The Ante-Post market is already anticipating some rain but it is likely that the going description will include the word soft. If so Marchand D’Or, Sir Gerry, US Ranger and Utmost Respect will continue to shorten. With more info about anticipated rain amounts and just before the market closes could be the best time for a bet. Alternatively immediately after the 2.00 tomorrow.
Update 9.30 Wednesday - Newmarket are expecting up to a half inch of rain today turning the going to Good/Soft or Soft.
The balance of advantage is likely to turn away from Kingsgate Native towards the 6f/7f horses that appreciate give. As far as I am concerned Marchand d’Or is top of that list and a very reasonable price at 4/1.
Selection - Marchand d ‘Or 2 pts @ 4/1 Ante-Post (Coral, William Hill etc)
Thursday 10th July - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Soft going.
The pace should come from Bertoliver, drawn in 8 and likely to come down the middle unless an advantage elsewhere reveals itself during the early races. Kay Two is the only other one I can think of likely to lead a 5f race, though Northern Dare is usually front rank in 6f races.
Three are out - Elhamri, Fantasy Explorer and Northern Empire.
Yesterday’s rain turned the spotlight on known soft ground horses and the market zeroed in on Northern Dare and Sundae. Neither are interesting prices but I would not be keen to oppose them. Digital is favoured by soft going and a stiff finish and might stay on for a place at 20/1 with Sportingbet in a race where not many are likely to go well in the conditions. Despite what the Racing Post says I think that Special Day may appreciate some give and has now fallen to a decent mark, but she has not hit form so far this season.
Update - Bertoliver and Special Day are also out. No Bertoliver favours the prominent runners as the pace should be only moderate. Northern Dare looks even better now.
No Selection
Friday 11th July - 4.10 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Easy ground across the country but in some parts plenty more rain is likely. York and Chepstow in particular could have very soft ground. The straight track at Ascot drains so well that I find it hard to believe that this race will be run on anything slower than Good ground, though the official description is Good/Soft (Soft places). So a case of watching the weather and checking the time taken in the 2.25 race, before making a decision.
Selection - Dressed To Dance @ 13/2 (Stan James)
Friday 11th July - 2.45 York - 6f Fillies Group 3
Very soft going possible, though the current description is Good/Soft. Prolonged and heavy showers are expected.
The Going Stick reading of 5.6 suggests that it is Soft at best, already.
The betting market could look different by 2.45pm.
Update - Lady Grace is one of the few you can be sure will relish very soft ground. She did not do well at Newcastle, but had a big task there and was not hard ridden when it clear that she could not get into contention. Hopefully she will be back to her best.
Cartimandua and Manzila are well clear on ratings. Cartimandua is not at all sure to act on very soft ground. Manzila’s standout run at Thirsk is starting to look flukey.
Selection - Lady Grace @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)
Friday 11th July - 8.40 Chepstow - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going description has been changed from Soft (Heavy places) to Good/Soft (Soft places) with a Going Stick reading of 6.1.
With heavy showers likely it will probably be softer than that. Not many of the field have solid form on Soft ground.
Selection - Phantom Whisper @ 6/1 on Betfair
Friday 11th July - 5.05 York - 5f Class 3 Apprentice Handicap
Only six runners left in with Blue Tomato and Luscivious non-runners.
Heavy ground.
As four of the six are only 4YOs there is insufficient evidence to sure if some of these will go in the conditions. Generally speaking it is best to assume that horses won’t be suited by Heavy. However there are one or two by stallions with a reputation for progeny handling soft eg Total Impact is by Pivotal. Ideally what you need in this situation is evidence of ability to go in the very soft + evidence of ability to stay at least a very stiff 5f, and preferrably 6f. A preference for front running is another advantage, as few horses pick up on very soft ground. Stolt is a possible but I prefer Invincible Force as he ticks all those boxes and is a generous price imho. He is also ridden by an apprentice who is riding a steady stream of winners. The stable’s form is the main worry.
Selection - Invincible Force @ 9/1 on Betfair
Saturday 12th July - 2.40 York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The heavy going makes this the most interesting sprint of the day, from a betting point of view.
Zomerlust is favourite despite showing very little so far this season. There was a glimpse of form last time when he led home the stand side group in a 7f handicap at Newcastle two weeks ago. He is certainly well handicapped at 9lb below his last winning mark achieved over the same course/distance/going. This is not my sort of bet but 4/1 is probably value in view of Zomerlust’s record in very testing conditions and bearing in mind that some past wins have also appeared out of nothing.
The best pace seems to be high with Everymanforhimself and Bel Cantor. But Pusey Street Lady, Hurricane Spirit and Ishetoo are others who may be front rank, and the pace will probably not be that significant in a race which is all about how the horses handle very testing ground.
Those with a record of going particularly well in such conditions are Pusey Street Lady, Zomerlust, Bel Cantor, Baby Strange, Swift Princess and Kaldoun Kingdom. Others may have snippets of form on very soft ground but do not convince as suited by it. So this is the short list.
Zomerlust aside the one I like best is Pusey Street Lady. Whilst I am not that keen on the draw Pusey Street Lady seems to be exceptionally well suited by very soft going. It was extremely slow at Doncaster when she won by 5 lengths. The Gosforth Park Cup third looks like a step up in form in conditions which did not particularly suit her. So I will go for her in what I believe are ideal conditions.
Selection - Pusey Street Lady @ 9/1 on Betfair (17/2 Sportingbet)
Saturday 12th July - 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
I am hoping that Something will run a good Hong Kong Sprint/Steward’s Cup trial. However the market is probably a fair reflection of his chance over 5f on going which will probably be easier than ideal.
My idea of the winner is stablemate Strike Up The Band. Last time the low draw, fast ground and stiff track were not in his favour. After breaking quickly and heading over to the rail he was harried for the lead by Osiris Way and faded into 4th. Crimson Fern had the plumb draw in 14 and everything went her way. Today SUTB has an 8lb pull in weights, Dettori riding and more suitable conditions. Siren’s Gift could be a bigger threat.
Selection - Strike Up The Band @ 4/1 (Coral)
Saturday 12th July - 3.35 Chester - 5f Listed - City Wall Stakes
A fascinating Chester 5f sprint with the two best horses drawn in the two worst stalls. Rarely can a stalls draw have been such a tease. Of the other eight runners , seven are front runners. The fastest of these in the early stages, and therefore the most likely to get the coveted rail first, second and third rank is a puzzle in itself. For what it is worth I do not think that Angus Newz, Hoh Hoh Hoh or Willhewiz have the fast break and lightning early speed to get to the rail in front. Take your pick from the other four.
The early pace from the three immediately inside him should be such that at least Borderlescott should get near the rail somewhere towards the back. Oldjoesaid has a very difficult task to get a good position.
Another worry is that there could be a front runners truce. This sometimes happens at Chester when a race is so loaded with front runners that most decide to not contest the lead. This results in the field stacking up leaving the ones at the back with no chance.
My conclusion is that Borderlescott is the most likely winner if the pace is suicidal. Hoh Hoh Hoh is the most likely winner if he can get on the rail second rank and the two best horses get bad positions/baulked. If there is a front runners truce then it is anyone’s guess between about six horses.
Good entertainment but not a betting proposition imo.
Sunday 13th July - 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Balakiref is a standing dish on heavy ground. He won this race in similar conditions last year off a mark of 74 and today runs off 69.
There is a chance that he will not be quite as good this year as last, but ability to handle this ground is all important.
Selection - Balakiref @ 9/2 (Bet365, Stan James, Betdirect)
The Week Ahead (13th July)
Sun 13th - 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.50 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Mon 14th - 3.40 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 15th - 7.10 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Wed 16th - 3.30 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 17th - 6.40 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.25 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 18th - 7.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.00 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Heritage Handicap - Scottish Steward’s Cup - Something
Sat 19th - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group Three - Hackwood Stakes
- 3.35 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 20th - 4.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tuesday 15th July - 7.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
A low draw is an advantage. Expect an average pace with Kylayne, Came Back and possibly Nota Bene up with the pace.
If you take his Diadem Stakes form literally then Greek Renaissance is the best horse in this field by a clear margin. However he has yet to back up that run with another in the same class. As he is drawn on the outside in stall 9 this could be a day for opposing him.
Starlit Sands has been off the track for ten months but still looks the most likely of the 3YOs, and should be helped by stall 1.
Apart from Nacho Libre and Aeroplane (needs 7f?) I would not want to dismiss the chances of any of the others.
No Selection
Friday 18th July - 8.00 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Scottish Steward’s Cup
A race with fond memories as Blackheath won it in 2004.
The going is currently Good, but some rain is forecast for tomorrow morning. Over the last couple of years the best place to be has been on the stand side.
The best pace is probably on the stand side with Valery Borzov drawn 3 and Everymanforhimself drawn 6. Forcing tactics got a good run out of Capricorn Run in the Wokingham so those tactics may be repeated.
Update - The times say that the going is Good/Soft (Good). Everything seems in Knot In Wood’s favour. Unfortunately the best price available now is around 10/3.
Selection - Knot In Wood @ SP
Friday 18th July - 7.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Going on the fast side of Good. Not many in with a chance on ratings.
They are trying a first time visor on Hoh Mike, apparently frustrated by the ground he has to make up at the business end. To me that says more about his training and their choice of jockey, Jamie Spencer, than it says about the horse. If you train and ride a horse to fall out of the stalls and sit detached at the back, you can’t be surprised when it races as it did at Sandown. As it’s success has been built on these hold up tactics, and it is clearly best at the weights, with perhaps it’s best ever run as recent as the King’s Stand the visor is a definite negative. It introduces a doubt into a race where he should have an excellent chance. He looked in great shape at Sandown.
Peace Offering is just a point and go ride. Assuming the far rail is as fast as any other part of the track, you would think that Ted Durcan will just zing up the rail from stall 1 and defy the others to catch him. Unless Ted gets the pace wrong the only ones who seem capable of catching him are Hoh Mike and Cute Ass. The latter is having her seasonal reappearance after good runs behind the likes of Fleeting Spirit and Captain Gerrard at 2YO.
Update - With the doubts about Hoh Mike (visor) and Cute Ass (late seasonal reappearance) the obvious bet is Peace Offering. He should be able to lead up the far rail without being harried too much. Ted Durcan rode him at Chantilly where he and Moss Vale stupidly took each other on and set it up for Beauty Is Truth. Ted should have learnt from that. If Hoh Mike either fails to react to the visor or overreacts, or even if he runs as he did at Sandown he is vulnerable.
Selection - Peace Offering @ 3/1 (PaddyPower)
Friday 18th July - 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good going, with the odd shower possible during the day.
Mr Wolf can be expected to lead and quickly get across to the rail from a less than helpful draw in 12. He does not seem as good as he was and despite his excellent record at Ponte the chances are that one or two will catch him. This assumes that one or other of The History Man, Elhamri, Avertuoso, or Mambo Spirit will press sufficiently to deny him a soft lead.
Update - Efistorm is back to his last winning mark, and he goes best on a stiff track with some juice in the ground. So he has his conditions. His run at Ascot was good as it was but he was held up waiting for a gap at a vital moment, but for which he would have gone close to winning. Add a nice low draw and he should go very well.
Selection - Efistorm @ 15/2 (Blue Square)
Saturday 19th July - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group Three - Hackwood Stakes
Good going. The draw is probably not an issue in itself, but the pace is likely to come from Beckermet (drawn 1). He may chose to race wide, gain a length or two in the first furlong and try to hang on. A draw near to him could be an advantage.
Hoh Hoh Hoh (6) and Edge Closer (12) are others who may race front rank.
Corrybrough will be a warm favourite and is not one to oppose, especially over 6f.
Saturday 19th July - 3.35 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
No Selection. Too many of these have been racing over further or in soft fillies handicaps which I haven’t analysed.
Saturday 19th July - 5.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Going on the fast side of Good. The likely front runners are possibly Ocean Blaze (drawn 1) and Osiris Way (6). Canadian Danehill and Northern Empire will be handy. Judged on Peace Offering’s win yesterday the far rail is a good place to be, but I do not expect Ocean Blaze on any of the others to get an easy lead down the rail. Probably no draw or pace advantage.
Misaro has been on an outstanding run of form with four wins from five races with the last a 5 length win over 5.7f at Bath two days ago. He will find 5f on fastish going at Newmarket plenty quick enough and may go off too short a price relative to his chance. So a selection is likely.
Update - Ladbrokes went short on Misaro and long on Osiris Way. I prefer Osiris Way over 5f. He got into a duel with Strike Up The Band at Sandown but could have his own way at the front today. On ratings he stands every chance.
Selection - Osiris Way @ 6/1 with Ladbrokes ( now 11/2 best available with Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (20th July)
Sun 20th - 4.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 21st - 4.00 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.30 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap
- 7.50 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 22nd - Blank
Wed 23rd - 3.20 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 24th - 2.45 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.15 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 25th - 7.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 6.30 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.30 York - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 26th - 3.45 York - 6f Heritage Handicap - Sky Bet Dash
- 5.30 Ascot - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.50 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.25 Newcastle - 7f Class 3 Handicap - Something
- 3.55 Newcastle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 27th - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Monday 21st July - 4.30 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap - Giles Insurance Stakes
A funny day to have a Heritage Handicap and as a result precious little betting interest in the race overnight.
Good going or just on the easy side. Chief Editor is out.
The draw is probably of limited significance because the stalls are on the far side.
The pace favours the high numbers with the most likely front runners Princess Ellis (8), Hamish McGonagall (12), Kay Two (16), and Inxile (9). With this amount of pace in the race I have a feeling that a tracker or chaser will win it. There are a number of contenders How’s She Cuttin, Fantasy Explorer, Swift Princess and River Falcon appeal most in the conditions.
How’s She Cuttin ran well behind Masta Plasta in Ireland. David Barron is always looking for an edge in good handicaps and puts up a 5lb claimer. That, her running style and the draw next to Hamish M make her my choice.
Selection - How’s She Cuttin’ @ 8/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Paddy Power)
Saturday 26th July - 3.45 York - 6f Heritage Handicap - Sky Bet Dash
Two bookmakers have an ante-post market up on this race, but nothing stands out sufficiently at the prices to make a selection at this stage. Possible selection when the final decs and draw are known.
Update - The going is Good (Going Stick 7.9) and drying out a bit.
The most likely front runners are Tamagin (9), My Gacho (20), Malcheek (16), Express Wish (11) and Lesson In Humility (3).
So plenty of pace in the race. As usual they are likely to race down the middle in arrowhead formation with Tamagin most likely to be the one at the front. If so the best drawn are those in the centre, near Tamagin.
On my ratings the ones who stand out just a little from the crowd are Efistorm, River Falcon, Harrison George and Zomerlust. I would also add Express Wish to the short list. Others to consider include Phantom Whisper, Tamagin, Knot In Wood and Tombi.
Zomerlust needs testing conditions and is an unlikely winner.
Harrison George is an improving 3YO, and the 3YOs have an excellent record this season. Looking at the videos of his last two wins the impression given is that he will need to go up in trip. He was basically flat to the boards throughout (from a bad
draw) over course and distance on 14th June, and took his time to get his head in front over 7f on heavy ground. Although that is two wins at York it is not a running style really suited to sprints on this track. Mind you, the four previous winners of this race - Mutawaqed, La Cucaracha, Wyatt Earp and Zomerlust - were all hold up horses.
River Falcon is back to his highest winning mark of August last year. All but one of his wins have been at 5f. He usually finishes 5f as if 6f would be even better and vice versa. Last time was no different as he was held up in his run and finished strongly behind Look Busy over 5f. He has run 16 times at York, winning three, 2nd once and 4th three times. He has a potentially plumb draw next to Tamagin.
Express Wish is a horse that many sprint enthusiasts will have their eye on. He was made favourite in four of his five races at 3YO, winning two of them. His second behind Ajigolo at Newmarket in May gave encouragement for believing that he had progressed over the winter. He raced freely close to the pace and looked the likely winner for a while. He has a nice central draw, but I do not know why he has been off for two months. The 7/1 best price shows that the bookmakers are still wary of him.
Efistorm has spent most of his career racing at 5f. There have been only three tries at 6f in the last three years. At Lingfield in October he was denied a clear run, and two weeks later at Doncaster he was denied a run more than once but stayed on well once clear. On that evidence he looks likely to be as good at 6f. His best runs at 5f have all been on stiff tracks or with testing conditions. His win record is excellent for a sprint handicapper, 10 wins in 46 races. The draw in 5 is OK.
It is a difficult choice but Efistorm comes top of my ratings and his price reflects doubts over the trip that many will have.
Selection - Efistorm @ 14/1 (William Hill, Stan James, BetDirect and Bet365)
Update Saturday am - Two days ago it seemed unlikely that the ground would dry up as much as it has. The fast ground has resulted in four non runners so far - Knot In Wood, Harrison George, Kaldoun Kingdom and Rising Shadow.
I would have been happier with some juice in the ground for Efistorm, though there is no evidence to suggest that he will not show his form on fast ground. It is just that most of his running has been done on easy ground or the All Weather.
One consequence of the non runners is that the high numbers will not be against the stand rail with the stalls positioned on the far side. So a few horses you could have drawn a line through on account of the draw come back into the equation.
The faster ground and non runners improve the chances of Tamagin, Express Wish, My Gacho, and Malcheek.
Update 2pm - Conditions have come very much in the fast ground front runners favour. It is not usually a good idea to bet on two horses in the same race. Apart from anything else you are betting against yourself and effectively taking a point under the price on each. However in the circustances, and bearing in mind the big advantage for front runners Methaaly and Jackonet yesterday, this is an exception.
Selection - Tamagin @ 15/2 (Betfred)
Sunday 27th July - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint
There is no ante-post market, which is a disappointment as this is the most valuable 5f handicap of the season.
Saturday Update
Fast going. No draw advantage. The best pace is drawn 14 (Bertoliver), 27 (Strike Up The Band) and 15 (Invincible Force). Other prominent runners include Tabaret (5), Bo McGinty (7), Elhamri (9), and Cake (22).
Holbeck Ghyll has won three of his four races this year. The only defeat was over 6f at Newbury where he front ran and was worn down late by Baby Strange to lose by a neck, the pair clear. HG showed his 5f speed to win the Dash at Epsom, and has had a break since. Always a talented horse, through a winless 2007 his performances suffered from headstrong tendencies. Now he seems to be proving more amenable to restraint. The very promising David Probert rides. He works for Andrew Balding so will know the horse well and takes off 5lb.
My short list includes Strike Up The Band, Little Pete, The Tatling, Sohraab, Total Impact, Tabaret and Safari Mischief. However I would not seriously consider any of these ahead of Holbeck Ghyll. Strike Up The Band should go well but Adrian Nicholls replaces Dettori, which is a negative, and I see him being collared inside the final furlong.
Selection - Holbeck Ghyll @ 8/1 (Stan James, BetDirect)
Sunday 27th July - 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fast going. A fair pace is likely to come from Bel Cantor and H Harrison.
Eventually Wyatt Earp came back to form, and his win at Redcar was very smooth. He has gone well at Pontefract in the past and see no reason why he shouldn’t go well today. Even with a penalty he is several lbs below his better winning marks. He is not a great price but value imo. Two of the outsiders are non runners.
Selection - Wyatt Earp @ 7/2 (Sportingbet)
The Week Ahead (27th July)
Sun 27th - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 28th - 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 29th - Pinpoint - 2.15 Goodwood - 10f Heritage Handicap
Wed 30th - Blank
Thurs 31st - 2.50 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - King George Stakes
- 5.50 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 1st - 2.50 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Steward’s Sprint Stakes
- 5.50 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.50 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 2nd - 3.50 Goodwood - 6f Heritage Handicap - Steward’s Cup - Something
- 3.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 8.05 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Sun 3rd - 3.25 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
- 3.50 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thursday 31st July - 2.50 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - Audi Stakes (King George)
It remains to be seen how much damage the Clerk of the Course has done to the going with his watering can. Yesterday he said he was putting on 8mm down the whole straight after racing. Rain is due but perhaps only the odd shower by 2.50pm.
This race always attracts the fast front runners and this year is no exception. You cannot get much faster than Desert Lord, Masta Plasta and Morinqua. But if they hang about there is always Moorhouse Lad, Fat Boy, Befortyfour and Starlit Sands, front runners all.
So it seems logical to try to find a horse that is high in the ratings and goes well tracking a very fast pace on a sound surface(?). Dandy Man is that horse. He has been serially unlucky either due to being drawn on the wrong side, as he was yet again in the King’s Stand, or because of lack of pace leading to him racing too freely, or because the ground went against him.
Unless the C of the C has ruined his chance today by overwatering he should have everything in his favour.
Unfortunately his price is currently on the wrong side of 3/1.
Thursday 31st July - 5.50 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Two of the fastest front runners around not in the 2.50 are in this race, namely Merlin’s Dancer and Ocean Blaze. As they are both drawn high there is a possibility that all the action could take place in the centre of the course or towards the far rail, where the false rail has been removed. However the stands rail did not seem to be at all disadvantaged in the first two days so perhaps there will be no draw advantage.
This race was known for a while as the Zuhair Stakes, which gives a clue as to the type of horse who usually wins it. Last year Continent came late to cut down the front runners, and Holbeck Ghyll and Double M are others to have come from off the pace, suited by a rapid gallop, horses spread all over the track and the uphill final furlong.
Ideally I would be interested in a chaser, that stays well, and is drawn near Merlin’s Dancer e.g. Mambo Spirit. However there is one horse that stands out a little from the crowd. This is Total Impact. He has the required run style and did well to come third in the Hong Kong Sprint behind Tom’s Laughter and Strike Up The Band. He now races off a 1lb lower mark but the major plus is that Kinsella is replaced by Frederik Tylicki claiming 7lb. That is hopefully a two to three length bonus. He is drawn a little away from the best pace in 9, but close to the other market leaders Tom’s Laughter and Mandurah.
Selection - Total Impact @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Friday 1st August - 2.50 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Steward’s Sprint Stakes
After 8mm of watering Wednesday evening and some light rain during Thursday afternoon the going was still on the fast side of Good. The Audi Stakes was won down the centre by Enticing from placed horses who raced towards the far side. The 5.50 was won by Total Impact racing in the stand side group from a horse that raced against the stand rail. So no discernible draw advantage.
Express Wish is favourite yet again. It is anyone’s guess whether the first time visor will be a positive or negative.
Northern Dare has two particularly interesting pieces of form. Firstly a second to Utmost Respect in the Ayr Silver Cup last September and the other a second in a valuable handicap at The Curragh just a month ago. That performance was off of today’s handicap mark. In his last race over 5f at Newmarket he would probably have won with a clear run. But 6f suits him very well, and his record suggests that he acts well on fast ground as well as soft. He is drawn in 5 which looks as good as anywhere on yesterday’s evidence. Northern Dare will probably lead the stand side group, unless something else is keen to lead.
The other most likely front runners are Valery Borzov (12), Osiris Way (20) and Idle Power (9). Express Wish with the visor may well race freely at the front as well. There is probably no pace advantage in any particular part of the track.
You can make a good argument for several of the others including last years 1-2 Pearly Wey and Joseph Henry; Baby Strange, Valery Borzov, Osiris Way, Harrison George and two or three more. However I like Northern Dare best at the prices.
Selection - Northern Dare @ 10/1 (Blue Square, Bet365 and Betfred)
Saturday 2nd August - 3.50 Goodwood - 6f Heritage Handicap - Steward’s Cup
This is proving to be a difficult Steward’s Cup on which to make up my mind. I did back Knot In Wood at 16/1 Ante-Post but his penalty, albeit only 3lb, took the gloss off of that bet and I have now laid it all off at 12/1. Prime Defender seems to have made eyecatching progress in his last two runs, and stands at the head of the ratings on most interpretations of the July Cup form. However I am not sufficiently convinced by the form to get too enthusiastic, having watched him closely with limited encouragement for over a year. Something is a handicap bandit waiting to happen, but whilst the Newcastle run gave hope of better things to
come, it takes a leap of faith to believe that he will transform into a Steward’s Cup winner this year. It often takes Dandy a year or two to get a horse back to their very best. Masta Plasta is a current example. Which is not to say that the 40/1 Something went untouched.
After the consolation race will be the time to make a selection, armed with the latest information on draw, ground conditions and weather. At this point in time the short list is Knot In Wood, Prime Defender, Off The Record and Borderlescott. Others worth considering are Northern Fling, Orpsie Boy, Siren’s Gift and Machinist
The best pace is almost certainly drawn high. The fastest front runners being Off The Record (28), Hoh Hoh Hoh (22),
Something (15), Bentong (24), Hinton Admiral (21) and Borderlescott (1). Conquest and Beaver Patrol are other front rank possibles.
Update - It seems fairly certain that the going will be on the fast side of Good, even if the Clerk of the Course puts on the 10mm threatened. With windy drying conditions continuing even a few showers should not cause too much harm.
Although there is probably no draw advantage, or disadvantage, on the straight the stand rail is being avoided and on the round track they are staying near the far rail. Of course the far rail in the first two furlongs of the 6f course has still not been used at all.
This is where I hope the winner will race as I have decided to go with Off The Record drawn 28. He goes best on fast ground and is an uncomplicated front runner who stays the trip well. Richard Hughes has one ride and one win on him, and has been in good form at Goodwood. Off The Record has been highly tried in recent Group races, is related to good sprinters and has scope for improvement. If he can get a lead down the far rail it will be quite tough for the others to keep in contact. Front running in the Steward’s Cup is not easy but Borderlescott and Patavellian have managed it in recent years.
Selection - Off The Record @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday 3rd August - 3.25 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
The going is just on the easy side of Good (Going Stick 8.0) and drying out a tad.
False rail in place. So the draw advantage should not be quite as powerful as with the false rail down. Nevertheless a big low draw advantage.
There is plenty of pace in the race including some who will want to get near the front from out wide.
The most likely wanting to front run are Invincible Force (4), Aahayson (10), and Angus Newz (8). Other front runners or prominent racers are Carcinetto (3), Methaaly (5) and Reverence (13). Two or three others would not turn down the chance to be handy.
So the most likely scenario is a strong pace all the way and runners trying to come through in the final 1 1/2 furlongs.
Damika must be high on the short list. He is a strong finisher and would have been my selection if the going had stayed Good/Soft or softer. He is favourite, and relative to his price I would be worried that, in a field of 14, he may get too far back in the field and arrive too late. The draw in 6 is OK for his run style.
Aahayson, Burnwynd Boy, Look Busy and Reverence all have poor draws which will probably scupper their chances either because they use too much energy getting a position or get stuck at the back of the field. I expect Invincible Force to run another good race from stall 4. He will probably try to make all, like last year when he was third, and could cling on for a place at long odds.
The other two which stand out because of their form and draw are Green Manalishi and Brave Prospector. Green Manalishi won the race last year, has already won at Chester this season beating the badly drawn Borderlescott, and they will be hoping to stalk the pace second or third rank, and pick up the pieces. He is a bit better at 5f than 6f and ideally prefers a sound surface, so the conditions are not ideal.
Brave Prospector looks to have a better chance now that the ground has dried out a bit. His very best form is on a sound surface and he would have not been suited by the slow going at Newcastle. He is drawn 1, is one of those improving 3YOs and seems to have enough pace to stay handy. On ratings he is one of several with a similar chance but he has the plumb draw.
Selection - Brave Prospector @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, BetDirect, Stan James)
Methaaly is out.