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The Week Ahead (5th July)
Sun 5th - Blank
Mon 6th - 8.20 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO
- 3.45 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 7th - 4.30 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 8th - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Totesport.com Stakes
- 9.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 9th - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 2.55 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 9.00 Epsom - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 10th - Something - 2.35 Newmarket - 7f Heritage Handicap - Bunbury Cup
- 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Group One - July Cup
- 2.45 York - 6f Fillies Group Three - Summer Stakes
- 5.05 York - 5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
- 4.10 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.45 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.40 Chepstow - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Sat 11th - 3.30 Chester - 5f Listed - City Wall Stakes
- 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.10 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.30 York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.40 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 12th - Blank
Monday 6th July - 7.30 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Firm going. The far side half of the straight is being used.
A slight high draw advantage can be expected.
Not a race I would normally bet in but one horse is very well handicapped and suited by the conditions.
Nothing in Harry Up’s record says he is necessarily better on the AW than on the turf. Yet he is now rated 13lb lower on the turf. Circumstances and opportunities have produced a lopsided record in the last year as he has been increasingly used to farm small field handicaps and claimers on the AW. A return to a reasonably sharp turf 5f in fast conditions should suit him perfectly well. Add to that the plum draw on the stand rail and he must stand a good chance. The downsides are the presence of front running 6f horse Peter Island in the next stall and use of the far side course which does not have the compaction on the stand rail of the full width course. I am hoping that Harry Up can get his normal fast start and lead along the rail. If so he should be hard to catch.
The favourite Captain Carey has a round soft ground action and I expect him to be less effective if the conditions stay fast for tonight.
Selection - Harry Up @ 8/1 (Ladbokes)
Tuesday 7th July - 4.30 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good going (GS 8.0) and thundery showers expected to ease the going a bit.
A strong pace is almost guaranteed with Mr Wolf and Bel Cantor in the field. Red Cape should not be far off the lead.
More rain could change this race. The low draw is not so good on easy ground and there are some in this race who go particularly well with give.
Update later. Bel Cantor and Johannes are out.
Good/Soft now with the first race run in 4 secs slow. The likelihood is that they will race off the rail and come centre/stand side.
Eton Rifles is a big lightly raced Pivotal gelding from a top sprint family. His Haydock win in heavy ground was full of promise as he went lengths clear before tiring in the final furlong. So he has speed, stays 7f, goes on soft ground and is likely to be still improving fast. He is steadily shortening in the betting.
Selection - Eton Rifles @ 7/2 (Stan James, Totesport)
Wednesday 8th July - 2.00 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Totesport.com Stakes
Good going. Far side track. Draw bias is anyone’s guess.
A nightmare race full of horses I know something about, but not enough. So a typical midsummer 3YO race.
It should be very informative.
Thursday 9th July - 4.55 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good going. On the first day they mostly raced up the centre. If it remains dry that will be the quickest ground. The odd light shower is possible.
Tony The Tap, Blue Jack and Kay Two all out. For once horses which had a definite chance in the race, rather than ones unsuited by conditions.
Ebraam is regarded by many as an All Weather horse. The key to him on turf seems to be some juice in the ground. He has run well on Good ground but not firmer. His AW mark is 12lb higher than on turf. Considering that he came to win this race last year and was just run out of it up the hill off a mark of 94 he has to be regarded as well treated now on 85 following two below par runs on fast ground. If they were to get 2mm of rain at HQ by 4.55pm that would be very handy, but he should run very well anyway.
Selection - Ebraam @ 22/1 (Coral at 10.20am)
Friday 10th July - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Group One - July Cup
Good going. The draw advantage will probably not amount to much with watering now unlikely.
Paco Boy is the best horse on all the ratings. He came to longer distances via successes at 6f and is almost certainly better at 7f than 8f. So in some people’s eyes a classic July Cup contender. In very fast conditions or with a modest pace to halfway you would be looking for a pure sprinter, but conditions seem to have fallen in Paco Boy’s favour. Between them Takeover Target, Equiano and JJ The Jet Plane should set a strong pace.
The conditions are likely to be a little on the quick side for African Rose and Main Aim who both could do with Good/Soft or softer. Scenic Blast surprised a few, including me, by travelling throughout like a free wheeling 5f horse at Ascot rather than the 6f hold up animal we were led to expect. Reviewing his form it seems that he is best so far at 5f or an easy 6f, and although he has been placed at 8f that form produced a much lower rating. It is difficult to believe that a horse that ran as Scenic Blast did at Ascot will be equally effective at 6f up the stiff July Cup finish. So I think that Art Connisseur might be the biggest threat to Paco Boy, despite the fact that the loose ground and fierce midrace pace in the Golden Jubilee probably flattered what he achieved there. Fleeting Spirit’s best form has been at 5f, coming off the pace in very fast conditions.
The main worry with Paco Boy is that the trainer has never seemed keen on going the July Cup route. This may be wholely ground worries, although Paco Boy ran a top class race at Goodwood on quite quick ground.
Selection - Paco Boy @ 5/1 (Totesport)
Friday 10th July - 2.45 York - 6f Fillies Group Three - Summer Stakes
Good (Good/Firm)
GS 8.6
The stalls are on the stand side so low draws best.
Lesson In Humility will be difficult to beat if reproducing her recent form. On top of everything else she has a nice low draw and should be too quick for the other front runners. She would be a marvellous bet at 3/1, and briefly was 7/2 last night with Bet365. Unfortunately that particular joke bookmaker knocks me back to 1% or less.
There are a number of feasible contenders so the early market enthusiasm for Lesson In Humility could wear off in favour of one of the others.
Selection - Lesson In Humility @ 3/1 or bigger
Friday 10th July - 4.10 Ascot - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good
GS 9.9
Some quite progressive 4YOs in this - Fabreeze, Al Gillani, Cape Rock, Street Power and Lemon N Sugar.
Of these I was particularly taken with the last runs of Cape Rock and Lemon N Sugar. The last named has won three of her last four. She travelled very nicely at Goodwood and won going away without being hard ridden. Cape Rock pulls hard in the early stages of 7f races and may improve at 6f for his new stable. He is out of Ayr Gold Cup winner Wildwood Flower.
Selection - Lemon N Sugar @ 7/2 (generally)
Saturday 11th July - 3.30 Chester - 5f Listed - City Wall Stakes
Good/Firm. Watering. GS 8.3. Rain arriving but probably at the end of the afternoon.
False rail + the rail is out 7yds. Notwithstanding that the 5f handicap on Friday evening was won by the front runner in a time faster than standard.
Borderlescott should get a good lead from Rievaulx World and will be hard to beat even if he has only come on a bit from recent runs. Unfortunately he is not an interesting price.
No Selection
Saturday 11th July - 4.35 Ascot - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Good going. Possible light showers. GS 10.2
Probably minimal draw advantage though the stand rail is a good place to be.
The going is not soft enough for Sonny Red over 5f imo. This should suit Cheveton in a race that has cut up a bit and does not look very strong on paper.
Selection - Cheveton @ 5/1 (Stan James)
Saturday 11th July - 5.30 York - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good (Good/Firm)
Stalls on the stand side and low to middle draws best.
I am surprised that Pavershooz is not shorter, as everything appears to be in his favour and only 2lb higher than his Gosforth Park Cup winning mark.
Selection - Pavershooz 2pts @ 11/2 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 11th July - 5.10 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good going. Possible light showers. GS 10.2
Probably minimal draw advantage though the stand rail is a good place to be.
With a left rail to run against there should be no repeat of Sharpened Edge’s antics hanging left. She may have competition for the lead from Our Piccadilly, and there are at least two threats from Efistorm and Ivory Silk. However Sharpened Edge is a filly on the up and should be difficult to beat.
Selection - Sharpened Edge @ 4/1 (William Hill, Victor Chandler)
The Week Ahead (12th July)
Sun 12th - Blank
Mon 13th - 4.00 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 14th - 9.10 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 15th - 3.30 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 16th - 7.25 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 17th - 3.30 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.05 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.55 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Scottish Steward’s Cup
- 8.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Sat 18th - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes
- 3.35 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 5.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 19th - 4.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.25 Fairyhouse - 6f Listed - Belgrave Stakes
Wednesday 15th July - 3.30 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Interesting 3YO race with Good/Soft going drizzle and showers.
Excellent Show is out.
Two horses in this who may well be worth following, Sloop JohnB and Ingleby Lady. Sloop JohnB certainly has not seemed to be suited by 6f, but he has also looked a difficult horse to motivate. The talent is there but bringing it out does not look straightforward. Headgear beckons but he may make the market in this race?
Ingleby Lady is by Captain Rio, a full-sister to Mey Blossom, and she should be right at home on softish ground. She has only had four races and further improvement is almost guaranteed. Her price has briefly reached 4.0+ on Betfair and there is a chance that 3/1 will be available at some point.
Selection - Ingleby Lady @ 3/1 (Stan James etc)
Friday 17th July - 7.55 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Scottish Steward’s Cup
Good (Good/Firm) is the reported going, though it looked no faster than loose Good ground yesterday afternoon with 10mm of persistent rain forecast today.
I am assuming that the going will be Good/Soft or Soft.
Update
Belatedly the rain has arrived at Hamilton. Good/soft is probably about right.
Four horses tend to stand out in this - Knot In Wood, Roker Park, Tajneed and Baby Strange.
Knot In Wood goes well for claimers and may be able to defy a high mark, but I am not sure that I want to bet on it.
Selection - Roker Park @ 6/1 at 7.50pm (generally)
Friday 17th July - 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good going so far. 9mm of rain to breakfast time. GS 7.9
Further showers forecast.
Fresh ground along the far rail.
I am assuming that the going will be Good/Soft or softer.
The pace should be strong with Mr Wolf, Le Toreador and Kay Two involved. With fresh ground along the rail there must be a chance that they will stay far side even if the going is Good/Soft or slower.
Efistorm won this race last year from a 1lb lower mark. He is ideally suited by a stiff 5f with some give, so perfect conditions. The draw is a bit of a worry but he will be coming from quite a way off the pace and will need some luck anyway.
The betting is exceptionally open with 8/1 co-favourites. Personally I think it is possible to draw a line through 8 or 9 of the runners for one reason or another, and it is by no means as competitive as the betting would have you believe.
Selection - Efistorm @ 9/1 (Blue Square)
Update 2pm
The going is now Soft with lots more rain to come. There is a chance that the ground will be bottomless and a heavy ground horse will win. Efistorm has won on Italian Heavy and Newmarket Soft. There are a number of others who have done well on very soft going. Before this season you would have picked out Artsu as a 6f soft ground horse. His recent form at 5f on faster going has been good. Maybe he will improve significantly for the conditions today.
Friday 17th July - 8.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Going currently Good. 14mm of rain yesterday evening and some more showers to come.
Selection - Peace Offering at 3/1 Coral
Saturday 18th July - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes
Very soft going.
Several of the better fancied horses have yet to prove they act on going this soft.
Selection - Prime Defender @ 9/1 (Bet365, Betfair)
Saturday 18th July - 5.20 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Soft (Good/Soft) going. By 5.20pm with a blustery drying wind Newmarket will have dried out quite a bit.
With four non runners the field is down to six. Mattamia is a rapidly improving well bred 3YO sprinter. Presumably he will lead from Equuleus Pictor and hopefully will be difficult to peg back. Not something to take a short price about but at current odds a reasonable bet.
Selection - Mattamia @ 11/2 (VC, Sportingbet, Stan James)
The Week Ahead (19th July)
Sun 19th - 4.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap - Abandoned
- 3.25 Fairyhouse - 6f Listed - Belgrave Stakes
Mon 20th - 4.00 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.30 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap - Giles Insurance Stakes
- 7.50 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 21st - 4.30 Ffos Las - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 22nd - 3.20 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 23rd - 2.45 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 6.05 Epsom - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 6.35 Epsom - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.20 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 24th - 6.30 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.30 York - 5.4f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sat 25th - Something - 3.45 York - 6f Heritage Handicap - Sky Bet Dash
- 3.35 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.45 Newcastle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 26th - 3.25 Ascot - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.10 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint Stakes
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Monday 20th July - 4.30 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap - Giles Insurance Stakes
Good going supposedly, but the GS says 7.0, they have been watering (unbelievable) and showers are forecast. So assume on the easy side of Good and possibly Good/Soft.
They are using the stand side 18 metres with the stalls on the far side, ie trying to keep the runners off both of the usual rail positions.
Plenty of pace from Captain Dunne (3), Judge N Jury (7), Pavershooz (4) and possibly Peak District (9), Reverence (11) and Canadian Danehill (2). So all the pace is centre to far side.
Selection - Look Busy 2pts @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
Thursday 23rd July - 6.35 Epsom - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Going on the fast side of Good with a few showers expected. GS 8.8
The stand rail is favoured.
Lots of pace in this, as is normal at Epsom. Merlin’s Dancer, Peter Island, Wotashirtful, Bertoliver, and Handsome Cross are all front runners given the chance. Misaro would also be front rank if he was quick enough. Our Piccadilly can race front rank or track. The hold up horses should have the edge which means Drifting Gold, Rocker or Our Piccadilly. Our Piccadilly is probably not well handicapped now after her narrow victory under perfect circumstances at Lingfield. Drifting Gold has a poor draw in 2. Rocker and Ryan Moore is the one I like. 5/1 should become available at some stage.
Update - Whilst 5/1 was briefly available on Betfair 9/2 looks to be the best available generally, which is OK.
Selection - Rocker @ 9/2 (generally)
Saturday 25th July - 3.45 York - 6f Heritage Handicap - Sky Bet Dash
The heavy rain of a week ago is now history and the track had dried out to Good by the end of racing on Friday. With another dry sunny day on Saturday it should be a fast sound surface.
Four regular front runners - Striking Spirit, Valery Borzov, Tajneed and Pusey Street Lady of whom Striking Spirit will be most at home on the ground. The other three would have set a strong pace on Soft ground. There seemed to be a preference for the stand side on Friday, but based on very little evidence. I still would prefer a centre to low draw.
Plenty of these would have been entered hoping for softer going. So the race is probably not as competitive as it looks at first sight, or as the overnight market suggests.
Something was probably unlucky not to win at Epsom and at only 2lb higher is still very well handicapped. The mediocre runs with Adrian at Ascot (drawn wrong side, left with lots to do) and The Curragh (going too soft) are best forgotten. Reunited with Paul Quinn I am expecting a better performance and the likely strong pace should suit. He should get a good tow from Striking Spirit and Tajneed. If he travels in the race as he did at Epsom and at The Curragh he must go close.
Selection - Something 2 pts @ 14/1 (Blue Square, William Hill, etc)
Sunday 26th July - 5.10 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint Stakes
Good/Firm with the centre to far side giving faster Going Stick readings. A stand side draw is probably a significant disadvantage. Rain coming in from the west towards the end of the afternoon.
This can be a fiendishly difficult race in which to find the winner. Last year Tom’s Laughter won at 50/1 and the year before that it was Stoneacre Lad at 66/1. This year there really are no horses who stand out on form from the crowd apart from the inexperienced 3YO Crimea. Hamish McGonagall is the one I like best from a ratings/going/draw point of view. However he has not run at Ascot and I am not sure that he is quite as good on fast going.
There is little doubt that the straight track at Ascot suits some horses, but does not suit many others. So one way into the race is to look for horses that have gone particularly well there in the past. There are a few course winners in the line-up. Of those perhaps only Mandurah is best suited by fast going. His career best win the other day had plenty to do with Richard Hughes and his opportunism on the day. However Adrian is no Richard Hughes. Strike Up The Band was second in this race last year and won over C/D in his next race. However off a mark of 100 he does have a tough task. He will be the front runner on the favoured far side but can he hang on?
There is another horse who goes well at Ascot who is well under the punters radar. This is Van Bossed. He was second to Laddies Poker Two over 6f here off a 8lb higher mark. Despite the row of duck eggs this season he ran a fair race chasing Markab up the disadvantaged stand side for 5f in the Wokingham. Dandy has eight horses in the race and Van Bossed, who is nicely drawn near Strike Up The Band, could be the Dandy stealth bomber.
Selection - Van Bossed each way @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes)
The Week Ahead (26th July)
Sun 26th - 3.25 Ascot - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.10 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Sprint Stakes
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 27th - 4.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.45 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 28th - Blank
Wed 29th - Something - 5.45 Goodwood - 7f Class 2 Classified Stakes (0-95)
Thurs 30th - 2.45 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - King George Stakes (Audi Stakes)
- 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.15 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.35 Epsom - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 31st - 2.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Steward’s Sprint Stakes
- 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.50 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 1st - 3.40 Goodwood - 6f Heritage Handicap - Steward’s Cup
- 3.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 8.10 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Sun 2nd - 3.30 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
- 3.55 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thursday 30th July - 2.45 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - King George Stakes (Audi Stakes)
Good going supposedly but after a couple of recent sharp showers and 5mm overnight. It must be slower than yesterday when it was probably main stream (ie not Seamus Buckley’s opinion) Good at the close of play.
The draw is an unknown unless you trust the Clerk of the Courses Going Stick readings which he said were 8.2 on both sides of the track.
On ratings Borderlescott, Kingsgate Native, Equiano and Inxile look to have the best chance. A sharp 5f on easy ground is more likely to suit Borderlescott and Inxile than the other two. Neither Ialysos nor Moorhouse Lad will appreciate the rain and probably are not good enough anyway.
Borderlescott is drawn out in the middle. Inxile is drawn low with two other fast front runners Rievaulx World and Jargelle. The problem with being low is the rain on opened up ground, albeit that there have not been many races on the straight track.
Selection - Borderlescott @ 10/3 (Ladbrokes)
A saver on Inxile at 12/1 may be a good idea.
Thursday 30th July - 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Following the Audi Stakes it seems that the going is just on the easy side of Good, and the stand rail is at least as good as towards the middle. Though the evidence does not amount to much yet. The fastest front runners were drawn low and the winner,second and third had the advantage of tracking them up the rail. In this race the fastest front runners are probably Le Toreador and Mandurah, who are drawn in 6 and 1, so the stand rail may be best again. Over on the far side Feelin Foxy and Equuleus Pictor are likely to lead.
The two that I like best are last year’s winner Total Impact and Invincible Lad. Both are drawn lowish.
If you forgive Invincible Lad the bad run at Ayr then he is an improving horse from a very successful and late maturing sprint family who is only likely to get better. Richard Hughes won on him at Leicester and is back on board. Total Impact, with the help of Tylicki claiming 7lb, needed every yard to get up last year and will require everything to go right to do so again.
Selection - Invincible Lad @ 12/1 (William Hill)
Friday 31st July - 2.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Steward’s Sprint Stakes
Yesterday’s rain definitely eased the going to something like Good/Soft by the time of the last race. That was the five furlong handicap in which there appeared to be little draw bias, at least between the stand rail and the far rail. However the best pace and bigger group was on the stand side, and all other things being equal you would have expected the stand side to prevail comfortably. The Clerk describes the going as Good (GS 8.2). Who is he kidding? Obviously not the non-runners who are dropping out due to the slower ground.
A well handicapped horse, who goes well on easy/loose ground at Goodwood would fit the bill. Just such a horse is Phantom Whisper whose last two handicap wins were off a mark of 91, the last of those at Goodwood on Good/Soft. He now runs off 85. The downside is that he has yet to reach top form this season though his third at Warwick was not far off. The high draw is a plus, though pace could be a problem on the far side if Van Bossed does not make for the far rail. To balance the cons is the price.
Selection - Phantom Whisper @ 16/1 (generally)
Saturday 1st August - 3.40 Goodwood - 6f Heritage Handicap - Steward’s Cup
The meeting starts on Good ground (GS 8.4) if you believe the Clerk of the Course. The times will tell us.
Overwatering is always a worry at Goodwood these days, though this week plenty of rain is expected and the going could well go softer anyway.
A strip of fresh ground against the far rail is brought into play every year on the Thursday or Friday and this can be important in terms of draw advantage. Where the track is most worn, the weather and watering are other draw imponderables at this stage.
Looking at the emerging shape of the race the most notable thing is the number of front runners still entered. In order of most likely to force the pace there is Tamagin, Striking Spirit, Fol Hollow, Markab, Valery Borzov, Buachaill Dona, Kostar, Joseph Henry, Mac Gille Eoin and Fishforcompliments.
On my ratings some of the ones of particular interest are Markab, Sonny Red, Biniou, Genki and Something. However this is not a race to get involved in until the going and draw are known.
The pace is very strong middle to high. In fact there are more front runners in this race than I can remember and they are nearly all drawn 12 -28. The most likely to be forcing the pace are Tamagin (20 but likely to be aimed at the far rail), Striking Spirit (27), Fol Hollow (21) and Markab (13). I expect Markab stay in the centre or to make for the far side. If I was drawn
1-10 I would be very worried about the pace/draw.
The going yesterday was mainstream Good. Light rain is forecast to arrive at about midday. It remains to be seen how much falls but it should freshen the ground up and hopefully move it more towards Good/Soft. In which case Markab and Sonny Red make lots of appeal.
Selections - Sonny Red @ 22/1 (Coral)
and Markab @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes, Betfred etc)
Saturday 1st July - 3.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Going is reported as Good/Soft with some rain to come. Ground conditions could well be important in the outcome of this race so waiting until nearer the time is the best thing to do.
War Artist is the class horse in the race but he seems to need a sound surface to be at his best. Three non-runners so far - Icelandic, Fullandby and Able Master.
Update - The going is Soft at Doncaster which may well be against War Artist and probably against Ancien Regime, Peace Offering and Galeota to some extent. A good pace is expected from Peace Offering and War Artist. Which all improves the chance of Zidane. Though confidence is not high at the price he is worth a bet.
Selection - Zidane @ 6/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday 2nd August - 3.30 Chester - 6f Listed - Queensferry Stakes
Good (Good/Soft) (GS 7.2) starting to dry out. No false rail. So a moderate low draw advantage by Chester standards.
The front runners are Angus Newz (drawn widest), Beckermet (8) and possibly Hoh Hoh Hoh (5). Carcinetto can be expected to race prominently from 3 also. It has the makings of a sound, but not especially fast pace.
Icelandic’s connections swerved a perfect soft ground opportunity at Doncaster yesterday, only to get Good ground today. Whilst I think he will be a contender from stall 2 I am not sure he quite has the pace in quickish conditions. Doncaster Rover has the highest rating, the best draw and enough speed to at least stay in touch. He has a favourite’s chance though Hoh Hoh Hoh and Sohraab are threats if they get a good position early.
This race is a little too easy to analyse and the prices are likely to offer little value.
Sunday 2nd August - 3.55 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Soft (Good) (GS 6.7).
Little or no draw advantage. The most likely front runners Wotashirtfull and Bertoliver, and possibly Elhamri, which adds up to a good pace.
Several of these are probably best on a sound surface, though they have had limited chances on easy ground eg Ivory Silk, Even Bolder, Olynard and Bertoliver. One horse who should appreciate the easier going is Ebraam. He got no sort of run at Newmarket when Frankie on Canadian Danehill was allowed to dominate and brought the whole field over to the stand rail causing traffic problems for the hold up horses. See remarks on 9th July above.
Selection - Ebraam @ 10/1 (Betfred, Stan James)
Monday 3rd August - 3.45 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good going. GS 7.7 so there is some juice in the ground.
The most likely front runners are Bel Cantor, Red Cape, Mister Laurel and Malcheek. Tabaret will also be prominent and has the speed to lead. So it looks like plenty of pace down the stand rail.
In a similar race last August Bel Cantor went to the far rail and made all. There would probably be little difference between the going on each side and a repeat of those tactics could have very interesting results.
Mister Laurel was probably flattered by making all down the stand rail Golden Highway at Newcastle. Viking Spirit has been given a chance by the handicapper as he is now lower rated than at any time since 2YO days. That would make him interesting on the All Weather or Soft. He has not produced his best on Good or faster for a long time, though I would not rule it out. Tabaret is in good form but will find a fast run 6f run on Good ground tests his stamina a touch too much. Atlantic Story on the other hand is likely to find things happening a bit too quickly. Kerry’s Requiem gets behind, needs luck with the gaps and has something to find with Mister Laurel. Bond City won this last year off a similar mark and must have a chance. Dropping Capucci back in trip looks like a shot in the dark. Malcheek and Ajigolo are right out of form and would prefer it faster anyway.
Summing up there are plenty of horses in the race that do not appeal for one reason or another. Which leaves me with Red Cape and Bel Cantor. Red Cape because he is in excellent form and everything is favourable. Bel Cantor because sooner or later his attempts to dominate are going to pay off and the opportunity to go to the far side on his own or with a small group is there today. A year ago it proved successful off a mark of 84 on Good ground. Today he runs off 79. A close 3rd in June over course and distance on faster ground and an easy win at Kempton three runs ago suggest that he will come back to something like his best in favourable circumstances. If he doesn’t go to the far side you will know he is stuffed.
Selection - Bel Cantor @ 16/1 (Boylesports, Stan James, Bet365pence etc)