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The Week Ahead (15th July). CURRENT RACE
Sun 15th - 2.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.20 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 16th - 4.00 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap
- 3.30 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 17th - 8.45 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 18th - Blackheath - 3.00 Catterick
- 3.30 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 19th - 6.40 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 20th - 7.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Sat 21st - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes
- 3.35 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 5.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.40 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 22nd - 3.50 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Monday 16th July - 4.00 Ayr - 5f Heritage Handicap
A good field of 18 Northern sprinters, many of them in excellent form. The going is Good (Good/Soft) with some rain expected overnight. With the field stretched across most of the track a chance for any draw bias to show itself. There are three six furlong races before this one so we should have an accurate idea of the state of the going and any obvious draw bias well before the race. In the circumstances it may be best to hold bets until immediately after the 3.30. The strongest pace is in the centre - Harry Up, Celtic Mill and Turn On The Style. Front runner Tabaret is drawn close to the stand rail and Gallery Girl, who has been racing up with the pace, is drawn on the far side.
Update
The Website host server did a wobbly and it was not possible to update the blog before the race. In fact the intended selection Buachaill Dona was a non-runner anyway. Alternatives made little appeal at the prices. Which is just as well with Fullandby winning.
No Selection.
Post Mortem
Fullandby, at last, showed himself fully effective at 5f when the emphasis is on stamina and the going Good/Soft or softer. He will do even better at 6f, and perhaps will be a contender for the Ayr Gold Cup. Turn On The Style did well to finish 4th as the pace was significantly faster here than at Newmarket on the 12th July, and he was up in the firing line most after getting his usual moderate start. Until this winter he was better at 6f than 5f, and it would not surprise me to see him make all over a 6f if he gets the chance again.
Archive 4 has been fully updated with post race comments and pointers to the future.
Attached to the Scottish Steward’s Cup post mortem (13th July) were Ante Post Selections for the Steward’s Cup itself.
So that these bets are not lost in a mass of races I am repeating them here.
Ante Post Selections - Steward’s Cup, Goodwood 4th August
Knot In Wood @ 12/1 generally (now 10/1)
Out After Dark each way @ 40/1 (Ladbrokes, Skybet, Betdirect)
Friday 20th July - 7.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
The ground is quick at Newmarket (Good/Firm, Firm in places) and they are using the stand side track. There is a historical preference for a high draw on this track. The 6.15 7f race with 19 runners may throw some light on any draw advantage.
The field includes five apparent no-hopers and a fascinating mixture of sprinters of various ages and backgrounds. Bounty Quest has developed into a Group sprinter on Dirt out in Dubai. He has no comparable form on fast turf from three 2YO races in England. Despite this, a complete change in climate and a four month break he is likely to be one of the favourites according to the Racing Post tissue. Presto Shinko, despite a good effort in the Palace House, has always looked to be a 6f hold-up horse suited by cut. He is to be equipped with a first time visor in this race following two very below par efforts. How the Racing Post can suggest him as favourite I do not know? Classic Encounter and Masta Plasta do not look quite good enough. Vale Of Belvoir is a useful 3YO filly having her seasonal debut after a year off. She would have to be something special to win this first time out. For those who can remember back that far The Trader was always regarded as a fast ground horse in his early years. However his best form in recent years has been with cut and his trainer has repeated this as important to him on several occasions. These days his good runs are few and far between, the last being his 4th place in the 2006 Nunthorpe, which was a 20lb better performance than his 3rd place in this race last year. Michael Blanshard continues to go through an awful run of form so The Trader is another to draw a line through for now.
This leaves us with just Celtic Mill, Baron’s Pit and Tabaret.
Update 10am
The weather forecast is now showing a hefty belt of rain moving through East Anglia during the afternoon. The going description has also mysteriously changed to Good (Good/Firm places) on teletext? Whatever, there is a need to wait and see before deciding on a selection for this race. The more uncertainty the better the chance of finding value half an hour before the race.
Update 6.30pm
The choice is between Celtic Mill and Baron’s Pit. The going has soften to Good after 9mm of rain. That and the fact that the jockeys do not seem keen on coming up the stand rail leans me in the direction of Baron’s Pit. The fact that he has been front running and now has Daryll Holland aboard helps, and he is slightly longer odds.
Selection - Baron’s Pit @ 6/1 (generally)
Post Mortem
Baron’s Pit was around 10lb below form. Some of this was probably due to Holland taking things easy early on, and not having the pace to make up ground midrace. Perhaps a return to six furlongs is indicated? The first two went a good strong even gallop, the leader Classic Encounter a little too fast for his own good. Celtic Mill was giving 5lb plus to most of the runners and is probably the only one to be particularly positive about. Masta Plasta improved to be placed here, but his chances in Listed races will be minimal and now the handicapper will hoist his rating giving him little chance in handicaps. Tabaret was backed and returned to his best. There was barely a glimmer of promise further back in the field.
Friday 20th July - 7.35 Pontefract - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is Soft at Ponte and Mr Wolf is back there again, this time over 5f.
Draw a line through - Inter Vision (poor recent form, high handicap mark, best 6f sound surface), Indian Trail (best 6f sound surface), Geojimali (poor recent form), Bo McGinty (best sound surface), Colorus (best sound surface), and Pacific Pride (moderate recent form, test a bit sharp). Namir and Highland Warrior have got plenty to do at the weights.
This leaves Mr Wolf, Off The Record, Final Dynasty, Glasshoughton and Coconut Moon as the most likely winners.
Mr Wolf will surely try to dominate and has a useful draw in stall 2, to help him. Most of the field tend to be held up or just chase the pace so he may not be pressed hard. Off The Record does race prominently or lead. Whether he will track Mr Wolf from stall 4 or take him on will go a long way to deciding how this race is run. Coconut Moon also tends to race prominently, though whether she would take Mr Wolf on is doubtful? Glasshoughton is well suited by conditions and he and Final Dynasty are the ones most likely to come from off the pace to take a hand.
Off The Record’s dam went well on soft along with others in that family (eg Lago Di Varano) but whether Off The Record himself does is, for now, an unknown. His halfbrother Moorhouse Lad is clearly very much at home on fast going. Before his excellent Newmarket 2nd to Shmookh I mentioned the trainers earlier opinion that Off The Record would need soft ground on turf because of “fragile legs”. Like many things trainers say it was not borne out by subsequent events. So, if Off The Record is of interest it is necessary to factor in this doubt about how well he will go on the soft ground.
Update 10am
The going description changed overnight to Good/Soft (Good places) which changes things a smidgen, but with some rain coming along in the afternoon things will probably be back to how they were. It shouldn’t get very soft.
Update 7pm
The going looks to be Good/Soft (Soft) and getting softer. Off The Record will get a good lead from Mr Wolf. He was available very briefly on Betfair at 3/1, but has been well backed at the best price 11/4 with the bookies. It seems unlikely that he will be available at 3/1 but he is by some way the most likely winner imo.
Off The Record @ 3/1 or better (if it becomes available)
Post Mortem
Luckily Off The Record never got to 3/1 with the bookmakers, and went off a ridiculously short 6/4 fav. Apparently he returned a bit stiff and sore after the Newmarket run, but the trainer thought him fully recovered for this race. Whether it was that, or the soft ground, which led to his below par run here may be more easy to judge in the future. Anyway there has to be a question mark against him on soft ground now, and you would not want to see him come out again quickly after a run on fast ground, either.
Final Dynasty was top of my ratings for this race, but the computer had the Ayr race won by Mecca’s Mate 7lb lower than me. So confidence in the degree of her improvement was low. Rating this race she comes out with a similar rating to Ayr. She also proved that she goes equally well on very soft ground. The problem for her connections is that she now goes up 12lb for the narrow defeat in a Listed race. Proving for the zillionth time how out of step the handicapping is of Fillies Listed/Group races compared with handicaps.
Saturday 21st July - 2.20 Newbury - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes
Thursday evening - The BBC Weather website is showing horrendous weather in the Newbury area on Friday. It looks like this race may be run on soft ground despite the current going description of Good/Firm (Firm in places). Hopefully the rain will send the Racing Post, punters and the betting market into confusion and we can profit from the results.
Update 10am Friday
The going description has already changed to Good/Soft (Soft places) with an inspection at 10.30am, presumably to safeguard the ground for Saturday at the expense of Friday’s card? It is a shame the rain did not come later.
MEETING ABANDONED
Saturday 21st July - 3.35 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
You would think, with all this rain about, that the Fanshawe team would be able to find Cape a nice 6f handicap on soft ground. No. The going at Newmarket is Good, She will probably perform well enough but does not warrant backing at cramped odds. Bee Eater will also be towards the head of the market. How good is she?
Whilst a number of the others are in good form - She’s Minnie, China Cherub, Pusey Street Lady - there is very little evidence to suggest that they will beat the two market principals.
Update 11am
Still a possibility of a selection here. Bee Eater looks quite strong in the betting, and Cape could ease a little. If so and Newmarket was to have a heavy shower or two then Cape could be worth an interest.
Post Mortem
Bee Eater is progressing well and could probably have found some more if needed here. Cape’s standing in punter’s eyes should be nicely lowered by now, so when Fanshawe eventually finds some soft ground for her there could be a nice profit to be made. He did say that he thinks she needs soft ground in a post race interview. The first I had heard this from anyone up to that point. Hopefully noone else was listening.
Saturday 21st July - 5.15 Newmarket - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The 7.15 on Friday confirmed that there is little or no draw bias over 5f. The best pace in the race is drawn on the wings, low Merlin’s Dancer (Stall 4), and high Raccoon (Stall 13). Other speedy horses include Nigella (2), Kay Two (7) and Angus Newz (12). The July Course is not a bad front running track, despite the steep uphill finish, but I would be mildly surprised if any of these won. As this is the last race on the card there is plenty of time to watch how things unfold on Saturday afternoon and then make a decision.
Three have been withdrawn, Bo McGinty (who ran yesterday evening at Ponte), Kay Two and Impromptu.
Looking at the videos of Deserted Dane was interesting as he seems to be ridden wide and McKeown appears very reluctant to use the whip. He will find it difficult to race wide in this.
The showers have been brief and probably made no difference to the going, which is now on the fast side of Good. This should suit Holbeck Ghyll. Having looked at various alternatives I have come back full circle to the favourite. He stands a very good chance with the expected strong pace from Merlin’s Dancer, Raccoon etc.
Selection - Holbeck Ghyll @ 7/2 (Blue Square, Bet365)
Post Mortem
A race I will remember for a long time on account of the extraordinary decision by judge Dave Smith to announce Ishi Adiva the winner without consulting the photo-finish, just a few seconds after they had flashed by the winning post. I have looked at the photo issued to the media but the tips of the horses heads are obscured by the two lines, a couple of pixels apart, drawn by the judge, and I can’t tell which actually won. I wonder what those lines obscure?
Tony The Tap was well-in on a number of placed efforts from two years back, and you would think should be winning soon. The only worry is that in 31 runs he has won twice but come second nine times. He has never looked tricky but has the record of a horse whose run has to be timed to perfection.
In my rating of the race I have taken a bullish view of the form and have assumed that Ishi Adiva improved markedly for exaggerated hold up tactics. In fact she got stuck on the rail longer than her jockey wanted and so had to come very late. The handicapper may take a more downbeat view of the form only putting Ishi Adiva up 4lb, so she may be able to follow up, especially in 3YO company. Tony The Tap is one to look out for with someone like Spencer aboard.
Holbeck Ghyll ran an OK race, though I expected a few pounds better, given the fast pace set by Merlin’s Dancer and the ease with which he got cover. Perhaps the loose ground was not ideal, but it would be a mistake to make excuses for a horse who had near ideal conditions here. My interpretation is that the race was a little better than I thought it would be, and Holbeck Ghyll was a little down on what I expected. He was only beaten a length and three quarters.
The Week Ahead (22nd July)
Sun 22nd - 3.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 23rd - 3.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.45 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 7.50 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.00 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 24th - Blank
Wed 25th - 3.20 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 26th - 6.30 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.00 York - 5.4f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 27th - 1.35 Ascot - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes (rescheduled from Newbury)
- 7.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sat 28th - 3.50 York - 6f Heritage Handicap
- 5.25 Ascot - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.50 Newcastle - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.00 Newcastle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 29th - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint Stakes
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.10 Carlisle - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sunday 22nd July - 3.20 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap
River Thames won by four lengths, on the bridle, at Ayr on Monday. A 6lb penalty will not stop him if he is in that sort of form. Spencer is on board again and the conditions are similar. Whether he will produce the same level of form again is anyone’s guess. He was a useful 2YO eg 3rd in the Flying Childers and has spent the last two years tumbling down the handicap from 100 to 70. He will be a short priced favourite, but his record is not of a horse to place a lot of confidence in. If there was a strong alternative it might be worth opposing River Thames, but you would not place much faith in the likes of Prince Namid, Paris Bell and Don Pele. A race best watched imo.
No Selection.
Post Mortem
An interesting tactical race. It would be easy to come to completely the wrong conclusions about the result. Indeed I may be about to do so? The way I read this race is that a bunch of mainly hold up horses gifted two 7f horses (Tamagin and Chjimes) a start, which extended to 4 or 5 lengths by halfway. When they made a serious attempt to haul them back they were not able to do so as the 7f horses ploughed on one paced. Therefore the result has to be taken with a large pinch of salt imvho. Having said that Tamagin has to be given plenty of credit for showing good speed and staying on determinedly. It is just that in a better race with faster horses I do not think that he will get away with it.
River Thames was almost certainly disadvantaged, the way the race was run. Spencer rode him as if he had all the time in the world, last, switched a little extravagantly to the far side, and still last 2f out. He made a big effort to get up to the leaders but had left it too late and just faded out of 3rd place on the line. Having laid him on Betfair at around evens there was a point at which I was worried that he may get to the leaders. The Ayr win was probably a little flattering as to his ability, and this bare result does not do him justice. He is likely to be harshly handicapped though, for the time being.
Paris Bell did one of his slow start/ fair try runs, suffering from being one of the first to chase after losing three lengths on the leaders out of the stalls.
Monday 23rd July - 3.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The going is supposedly Good or slightly faster. The draw is not particularly significant.
Few of these have got good recent form. That does not necessarily make it much easier. It is unlikely that there will be a selection.
Post Mortem
Everygrainofsand made all despite not looking as if he was enjoying it very much. He has probably found his niche, front running over 6f. Don Pele could pick up a race soon for his new stable. He has past handicap wins off 84 and 86, yet is currently running off 75 on the turf.
Royal Rock was impressive at Windsor in the 7.50. He has the profile of a improving horse who will probably stay ahead of the handicapper for a while yet. He handles all sorts of ground, stays 7f, yet was well on top in this race fully 1 1/2 furlongs out. He is worth following as long as connections keep their feet on the ground.
Monday 23rd July - 8.00 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This is a low quality race for the grade, as only four of the ten are rated above 70. What makes it of potential betting interest is the very soft going and the potential draw advantage. There is a 5f 2YO race at 6.30 which may help confirm the normal high draw advantage?
Post Mortem
A race run on very testing ground. Bond Boy and Ryedale Ovation stayed on the far side and had no chance with the others who came towards the stand rail. Melalchrist made all as so many winners do on heavy ground. There was little to learn from the result.
Wednesday 25th July - 3.50 Catterick - 5f Class 4 Handicap
It has been a quiet past few days, with mainly poor quality sprints on dodgy ground with iffy draw advantages.
This one at Catterick is no better. Only three of the ten runners are rated over 70. Three of them are out of the handicap proper. Minimal reliance can be placed on the going actually being Good/Soft. Catterick dries quite quickly so it might be faster. If softer they could easily race down the stand rail, rather than the far rail.
No Selection.
Hopefully York will be given the go ahead on Thursday and things will pick up further at the end of the week. There are some nice races on Saturday and Sunday including the Skybet Dash and the Hong Kong Jockey Club Stakes, plus the rearranged Hackwood Stakes at Ascot on Friday.
Thursday 26th July - 7.00 York - 5.4f Class 4 Handicap
Heavy ground. Stalls in the centre. There is a chance that they will edge over to the stand rail.
The intermediate distance of 5.4f adds a bit of spice to the race. The unusual distance was introduced when York hosted the Portland handicap last year. 5.4f on heavy going should suit the favourite Prospect Court very nicely. The History Man and Tilly’s Dream, if she handles very soft going, look the only threats.
The History Man has a Timeform squiggle. Quirky and unreliable they say. He wears blinkers and has a high head carriage, which for some people is enough to condemn a horse. Jockeys are also instructed not to use the whip on him these days. Many Timeform squiggles can happily be ignored, especially if you know the reason for the behaviour that prompted it and you know that either the problem has been overcome or is unlikely to apply in the current circumstances. The fact that the horse has won two of its last three races suggests that they should be reviewing this squiggle. Last time he was hampered at the start, had to stay in the pack until a gap opened and stayed on steadily up the Beverley hill to just get up, doing nothing wrong. Timeform often pick on front runners for the squiggle treatment. Some front runners are ridden that way because they are intimidated by other horses and won’t go through gaps etc. Just a characteristic to be aware of, not a sign of a horse to be distrusted imho. Such horses can be very successful given the right races and tactics. Today he gets to be ridden by a sympathetic 7lb lady claimer, which is good, and could front run down the stand rail. Artie and Bo McGinty are other possible front runners.
Prospect Court would be the selection if there was a chance of him being 3/1 or better. His general price is 7/4. If he drifted right out to 3/1 you would be suspicious rather than anything else, so he is not a bet. Last time he was going exceptionally easily midrace but did not find as much as seemed likely when ridden. He only just held Paris Bell off. If he went very short, which is a possibility there may be value in opposing him, but I will not be rushing to do so.
No Selection
Update 6.10pm
In the 6.00 there appeared to be an advantage in racing along the far rail. If so that throws more doubt on the way the race will be run, and taking a short price on the favourite would be more questionable.
Update 6.45pm
Big advantage to leading on the far rail. The rail is soft the rest is heavy. The horse which gets to the rail in front will probably win.
Friday 27th July - 1.35 Ascot - 6f Group 3 - Hackwood Stakes
It remains to be seen how much affect today’s rain has on the going, but it is described as Good, and the way that Ascot’s straight drains I expect it to be on the faster side of Good by 1.35pm. The stalls are in the centre and you would expect a moderate sized field to stay together down the centre with no draw bias. The pace is on the wings with Reverence (drawn 1) and either Drayton or Assertive (drawn 11 and 10) on the far side. Sonny Red is often prominent over a mile, and Fayr Jag has tended to race freely close to the pace of late. I expect a moderate pace for the grade. There is no reason for Reverence to set a fast pace, Drayton probably did better at Ascot than when front running in the July Cup, and Assertive is not a fast horse by these standards.
Reverence has a big task with his 8lb Group 1 penalty. Especially as he does not have his ideal conditions, a stiff 5f and soft ground. He is a very fine sprinter but at 3/1 a poor favourite in this race imvho. The second favourite is Al Qasi at 9/2 best price. These prices come from the Racing Post tissue and the overnight Bookies odds. Al Qasi seems to be a little less effective on Good or faster ground, and his trainer may need to look further afield for soft going if Al Qasi is to fulfill the promise he showed last year. Personally I would have these two at around the 6/1 mark, so if I am right there should be an opportunity to find a winner at generous odds. However it looks an open race and you can pick a hole or two in the chance of all of the runners.
To complicate matters Ashdown Express, Drayton and Assertive are all wearing first time headgear. In Ashdown Express’s case there looks to be a hint of desperation in the application of a visor. At the age of 8YO he has been a little below par since returning from Dubai, where he did OK. Fayr Jag is another who seems to be losing his way at the age of 8YO. He won this race last year, but since a fair seasonal debut at Thirsk in April things have gone rapidly downhill, soft going only partly responsible?. Daryll Holland is an interesting booking for him, perhaps he will try to front run?
Appalachian Trail should find this a bit too sharp, and Fonthill Road would also need soft ground to stand a chance against these at the weights. Sonny Red looks a bit outgunned to me, even if 6f suits him. He did not improve for the drop back from a mile to 7f in the Jersey Stakes. As ever Baltic King would have a better chance in a fast run big field race. A fast pace for him seems unlikely?
This leaves us with three - Assertive, Balthazaar’s Gift and Drayton.
Update 11.30am
The going is now described as Good/Soft after 9mm of rain. Al Qasi comes back into consideration because of the easier ground but it has been a drying morning, so he still does not look to be particularly favoured by conditions.
Balthazaar’s Gift has two pieces of form at Ascot which if he could repeat them would be good enough to win this. However he seems to need cover and a very strong pace to bring out the best in him. His career has been affected by having four different trainers and his form is very inconsistent and hard to interpret. He is quite a tempting bet at 15/2 but he probably will not get a strong pace.
Assertive has being doing well, so the application of blinkers now is puzzling. He got a soft lead and made all at Windsor, quite a lucky winner. He could win but he needs a few others to run below par, unless the blinkers improve him.
Drayton ran a cracking race in the Golden Jubilee, particularly considering he lost two lengths at the start. In the July Cup he tried to make all but that was an impossible task for him and he faded into middiv, still a creditable effort. Front running was not the plan and I expect him to press or track the leaders in this race. The eyeshield is intended to help him settle.
In a race where most of the runners do not inspire confidence Drayton comes out quite well in the ratings on the Golden Jubilee run and can progress from that. He was ahead of several of these in that race.
Selection - Drayton @ 7/1 (Bet365, William Hill, Totesport, Stan James)
Post Mortem
Balthazaars Gift (available at 10/1 on Betfair) showed again his liking for Ascot. All of his three best runs have come there. After the race there was a minor plunge on him for the Steward’s Cup, but visually pleasing as the performance was it only confirmed earlier form and he has a tough task off a mark of 109.
Reverence is steadily getting back to his best. I thought that his performance was encouraging for the Nunthorpe. Predictably some commentators were writing him off. If Sakhee’s turned up and the ground was soft, my money would be on Reverence. However that is unlikely to happen.
Unfortunately Drayton was not pacified by pacifiers and ran too freely in the lead, running well below his July Cup form. Whatever, he would not have beaten Balthazaar’s Gift. He was backed into 5/1 second favourite.
Friday 27th July - 7.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is described as Good, though they must have had a fair amount of rain on Thursday. The stand side course is being used, with the stalls on the far side of it. Possibly they will race down the middle with no draw advantage, though I prefer the stand rail (high) when they use the stand side course. Misaro, Who’s Winning and King’s Gait are the most likely front runners. Misaro is drawn high and the other two low. Misaro put up an impressive performance at Kempton ten days ago, leading and kicking from the front. Front running at Newmarket is a different proposition. Tracking Misaro may be the best place to be?
Update 6.30pm
Swinbrook is well handicapped on a number of runs scattered through his form. He is not very consistent but appears to be creeping closer to a win. Fifth behind Ripples Maid, he then had a barging match with Cape at Folkestone, and briefly looked like getting a win when backed at odds on in running in the Ascot race won by Orpsie Boy. Tonight he will be able to chase Misaro up the stand rail and he seems to have a fair chance of catching him, if he gets some luck in running. Roman Maze ran very well again in coming second to Orpsie Boy, but has a less helpful draw and 2lb extra.
Selection - Swinbrook @ 7/1 (Betfred, Skybet, Coral)
Post Mortem
Swinbrook is as difficult to read as War and Peace. I am not the only one having trouble, as he was backed into 11/2 joint fav. Signor Peltro came back to his best with first time blinkers. I was quite impressed. He has always been a strong running horse at 7f who has often taken the eye. Roman Maze and Pearly Wey also finished strongly and Misaro kept on well considering the speed he showed. King’s Gait ran surprisingly well without the blinkers and on fast ground, much better than the last two occasions with supposedly ideal conditions. Where this leaves us in assessing his future chances I do not know. More questions than answers.
Saturday 28th July - 3.50 York - 6f Heritage Handicap - Sky Bet Dash
Heavy ground and I assume a narrowed straight. If the rails are where they were on Thursday then the far rail will almost certainly be the best place to race. There is a lack of front runners in the race. Plenty of these go well on very soft going, so it is not going to be straightforward to choose between them unless the far rail draw advantage is still in evidence.
Update 10am
Fullandby has similar form over 5f and 7f (Victoria Cup), but although he is clearly versatile he has to be even better at 6f, if his trainer and jockey can find the right tactics. Today he also has a good draw in 3, close to the far rail which seemed to be favoured on Thursday evening. The track is still set out the same way. So he has every chance and El Bosque helps us to get a reasonable price.
Fullandby @ 6/1 (Bet direct)
Bahamian Pirate has always gone really well on very soft going (eg 2004 Nunthorpe). He also has the plumb draw in 1 and is in good form. So why he is 16/1 generally and 18/1 with Bet365 I do not know. He should be half those odds and is worth a “saver”. Not a selection though as I do not want to confuse matters.
Post Mortem
Annoying. There turned out to be a golden highway down the stand rail. So limited significance should be given to the result. Skhilling Spirit was made 7/2 favourite, which was bizarre. In his first time headgear he refused to race. Why they don’t just run him at 7f and have done with it I cannot figure. He may even end up better at a mile. Fullandby has me puzzled. He got into an argument with El Bosque’s jockey which had something to do with him tailing off, though I have only watched the race a couple of times. That and the draw are reason enough to put a line through his running. We did learn that Green Park stays 6f well, that Zomerlust is just as good in a visor as without, and with unusual track configurations it is best to wait to the last moment before taking a view about draw bias..
Sunday 29th July - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint
One of the top 5f handicaps of the year. The going today was Good on the straight track, gradually drying until further rain will have started to fall around 9pm. There looked to be very little draw advantage in the 27 runner Totesport International, over 7f, though they avoided the stand rail.
A fast pace should come from Classic Encounter (drawn 12), Cape Royal (3) and King Orchisios (28). There are not too many faster front runners around than these three. Also Loch Verdi (7), Kay Two (8), Tabaret (18) and Misaro (25) should not be far off the pace. So there is good pace fairly evenly distributed across the track, and it should be a fast run heat favouring those tracking or chasing the pace.
There are plenty in with a chance and the normal process of elimination due to doubts about distance, track, going, draw, etc still leaves you with a very long short list. So I will approach the making of a selection from the other direction. The ones that come out well on ratings that I fancy most to win are Buachaill Dona, Dig Deep, Hoh Hoh Hoh, and Misaro. Tony The Tap and Fantasy Believer are also high on the list but TTT is an infrequent winner who needs a top class hold-up ride and Fantasy Believer is still 3lb higher than his highest winning mark, albeit that was the marvellous three length win in the Portland. Orpsie Boy should not be quite quick enough to win over 5f.
Buachaill Dona was to be my selection on two occasions over the past few weeks before he was withdrawn, supposedly due to unsuitable going both times. This is one of the races which Dandy Nicholls targets so it is surprising that he has only two of the 28 runners. In the last three runnings he has had 19 runners in all, including the winner last year, Machinist and the 2nd and 3rd in 2005. I would not be surprised if this race had been marked down as Buachaill Dona’s main target for some time. He has a centre draw next to Classic Encounter on one side, and Gallery Girl and Corridor Creeper on the other side, so his part of the draw should be getting on with it straight out of the stalls, and the risk of him pulling hard is lessened.
Misaro has a nice high draw, every chance to work his way to the front on his part of the track and the stamina to stay there. Luke Morris back in the saddle is a bonus. At 25/1 with Skybet (small stakes only) he is a value bet imo.
Selection - Buachaill Dona @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes and Bet365 overnight)
Post Mortem
A surprise result, though Stoneacre Lad was not the forlorn hope suggested by the betting based on his good third to Off The Record at Southwell. I had watched him with interest at Ayr where he would have been closer with a clear run. Here he seemed to benefit from chasing Tabaret, with no distractions or interference. Hogmaneigh went off a ridiculously short 9/2 fav bearing in mind that he would have had to produce a “Group” winning performance to win off 104. Whilst the race is not hard to rate very few of the 24 runners ran to their form. Stoneacre Lad and The Jobber produced career bests whilst only Hoh Hoh Hoh, Dig Deep and Fantasy Believer ran to the form they had been showing. This is a point of interest because there is a chance that many horses do not act well on Ascot’s free draining sandy surface? This is a theory which may turn out to be helpful, or screw you up in the future. However I have been taken by the number of horses who ran well below par in races such as the King’s Stand, Golden Jubilee, Wokingham, the Class 3 won by Zidane etc. In each race only a handful of runners ran to form, or better, and the runners were more strung out more than usual. Ascot now may be much more of a course specialists track.
Several of the runners in this were due to go up this week (eg Hoh Hoh Hoh +4lb) and so the race, which is invariably very strong form, may not be so helpful in supplying winners for the immediate future. Tony The Tap will go up 4lb for the “loss” to Ishi Adiva but with the right jockey he will surely win soon. Fantasy Believer is reaching top form but his handicap mark is not as helpful as in previous seasons. Woodcote could be of interest when he is allowed to race over his best distance of 6f.
Buachaill Dona is hard to figure, and is now running more bad races than good. Perhaps he is well named, though making judgements on runs at Ascot is something to be wary of
Contrary to many opinions beforehand the result suggests no significant draw bias.
The Week Ahead (29th July)
Sun 29th - 2.50 Ascot - 5f Heritage Handicap - Hong Kong Jockey Club Sprint Stakes
- 4.25 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.10 Carlisle - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 30th - 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Tues 31st - Blank
Wed 1st - Blank
Thurs 2nd - 2.50 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - King George Stakes
- 5.40 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 3rd - Pinpoint - 3.30 Goodwood - 8f Heritage Handicap - Totesport Mile
- 5.10 Goodwood - 6f “Class 2” Handicap - Steward’s Cup Consolation
- 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.25 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.45 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 4th - 3.55 Goodwood - 6f Heritage Handicap - Steward’s Cup
- 3.40 Windsor - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 8.15 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Sun 5th - 4.10 Chester - 6f Listed
- 4.25 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thursday 2nd August - 2.50 Goodwood - 5f Group 3 - King George Stakes
Enticing will not have the going as firm as she likes. According to the race times it still appears to be Good ground and a little rain is forecast for tomorrow.
Prime Defender showed an excellent cruising speed in the July Cup, lying second through the middle of the race, with much of the cream of British sprinting niggled along to keep in contention. He faded from 1 1/2f out, not knocked about when his chance had gone. Even on that form he would be in the mix here, but his second to Sakhee’s Secret at Salisbury, and trouncing of Hoh Mike at Haydock are better. After the Haydock run Charlie Hills said that they thought PD would be equally good at 5f. The stable won this race last year with La Cucaracha, and I believe that it is significant that they are choosing to go down in trip.
There will be masses of pace on. The leaders of the King’s Stand, Desert Lord and Moorhouse Lad, are in the field. Even the jockey and trainer of Miss Andretti were taken aback with the early pace those two set at Ascot. For good measure there is also Classic Encounter, Celtic Mill and Turn On The Style. Fast front runners are attracted to this race like bees to honey but it is often won by a finisher, as in three of the last four years with La Cucaracha, Ringmoor Down and The Tatling.
Selection - Prime Defender 2pts @ 8/1 (Stan James)
If the 8/1 goes, then 7/1 with Coral and Paddy Power is a generous price as well.
Update 9pm
The 8/1 has gone now, but 15/2 has popped up with Totesport.
Post Mortem
It seems ages since Moorhouse Lad was the selection in the Vodaphone Dash. He has come on leaps and bounds since then with Spencer and Moore riding him to perfection in his last two races. He would need others to be below par to win the Nunthorpe but his chance is better than most, on this evidence.
Unfortunately Michael Hills thought taking a pull was a good idea to try to settle Prime Defender out of the stalls. The couple of lengths he lost there would have been handy at the business end but Prime Defender could not summon the speed to make up the ground. For me he would be fully effective over a stiffer 5f ridden by a jockey with a better plan.
Enticing will do even better on very fast ground. At York they tend to water rather too much to think she will get her conditions there. The Jobber managed another career best but he is unlikely to be successful in Group company, and his connections are ensuring that he goes very high in the handicap, by running close to horses rated 110.
Thursday 2nd August - 5.40 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
By the time this race is run we will know much more about ground conditions and any draw effects. This is quite a tough race to analyse and I expect wildly different conclusions to be drawn. So an opportunity to find a cracking value bet or to be embarassingly wrong. The Racing Post spotlight is written by Emily Webber whose conclusions on sprint races can be very insightful, but more often are completely misguided. The tissue will reflect her opinions.
There is lots of pace in the race, and it is distributed to encourage a split. Mr Wolf is over near the far rail in the outside stall. Close to him are Peopleton Brook and Raccoon, also natural front runners, and Safari Mischief. They can be expected to press Mr Wolf hard and perhaps set it up for a closer. The false rail is taken down overnight so they can race on fresh ground. If it rains quite a bit that will probably be an advantage. If it stays dry then the opened up ground will dry out faster and will probably be quicker.
On the stand side there is Harry Up who is usually as quick as any of the 5f front runners. To push the pace stand side there is Magic Glade, Spanish Ace, Diane’s Choice and Misaro.
This is the race that Zuhair won four years running 1999-2002. Each time he came from way off the pace. In the last two years prominent runners have won, Sierra Vista then Holbeck Ghyll. Until, at least, we know the effects of the weather and how the fresh strip is riding I would want to keep an open mind. However if conditions remain largely unchanged a long odds selection is a possibility.
Update 5pm
The going seems to be just on the fast side of Good on the straight track. The fastest route, being taken by Ryan Moore, is the most worn ground close to where the far rail was for the first two days. If you could know who would race there in this sprint it might help find the winner. I would not really want to be drawn low. Perhaps Raccoon represents the best combination of good recent form, draw and liking for the conditions. Despite the large field I am not convinced that this will take a great deal of winning. Nearly all the best rated horses have something strongly against their chance.
Selection - Raccoon @ 20/1 (Betfred, Bet365, Ladbrokes)
Post Mortem
to come
Friday 3rd August - 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sohraab has been incredibly unlucky in building his sequence of six seconds in a row. On one occasion he was promoted to first place in the Steward’s room, only to have it taken away again on appeal. The sequence may put some punters off so there is a chance he will be longer odds than his chance justifies.
Selection - Sohraab @ 7/1 or better
Post Mortem
Sohraab probably did not reach 7/1 except briefly in one or two places on course, but unfortunately as I did get 7/1 the bet is included in the Cumulative Results. He never threatened to get involved in this test of pure speed and may have gone over the top for now. He did not impress in the paddock compared with the likes of Marozi, Gentle Guru, Obstructive, Valery Borzov and Southand west.
This was one for the Newmarket boys who knew that Marozi was considerably better than his track form, as suggested by his Haydock Sprint Cup entry. There will be plenty of other winners coming out of this race, but I need another viewing of the video.
Friday 3rd August - 7.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Bee Eater is likely to be odds on as befits a Mark Prescott handicapper on a roll. However this will be a sterner test than those weak 3YO and fillies races that she has been winning. Up to a mark of 90 she will have to be Fillies Listed Class plus to win this. Matuza comes out well in my ratings and I think has a much better chance than the odds suggest. He impressed me when he beat Chatshow at Bath and has been unlucky since. I intend to take on Bee Eater with Matuza.
Selection - Matuza @ 16/1 (Betdirect etc)
Post Mortem
Bee Eater improved markedly again. I made it +12 lbs. She is now a serious contender to win a fillies Listed or Group race. Come Out Fighting burst a blood vessel back in the Ripples Maid Newbury race so it was good to see him back to his best here. He provided a serious test for the filly, but she was more than equal to it, running on strongly with her tail going round like a windmill. Great stuff. In the circumstances Matuza would not have won even at his best.
Friday 3rd August - 5.10 Goodwood - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Steward’s Cup Consolation
Boder Music stands out on the form of his Ascot win. He actually gets in this on a pound lower mark than he won off. He is drawn on the far side close to plenty of pace - Fire Up The Band, Mujood, Woodcote etc. There is also Merlin’s Dancer down the centre and a group of front runners on the stand rail. The ground should suit, as should the strong pace I am expecting. There are plenty of other obvious contenders - Roman Maze, Tony The Tap, Pearly Wey, My Gacho, Woodcote, Don Pele, Dandy’s Selected, however for once I am going to place some faith in Border Music?
Selection - Border Music @ 7/1 (Betfred)
Post Mortem
Border Music seems to need a very fast pace and the leaders coming back to him. Despite the number of front runners he did not get that in the Steward’s Sprint Stakes. Impressed in the paddock. Rangy, well made, a class better than the opposition. Indian Trail, Roman Maze and Merlin’s Dancer were also well above average.
Both rails were avoided. Otherwise there appeared to be no draw advantage.
Obe Gold will be running off 4lbs lower for a week (83 OR). He was a seriously useful horse as a 3YO winning off 100, and then 100 and 104 in Dubai. Whether he will be able to repeat, or improve on this effort will interest a few punters. Another run of the video is needed to reach any further conclusions. Pearly Wey may be on a roll.
Sunday 5th August - 4.10 Chester - 6f Listed
Fast ground at Chester with the false rail in use. The low draw advantage is most potent on fast ground but the false rail reduces its importance. It is difficult to know whether there will be competition for the lead and therefore to what extent the front runner(s) will be stopping in front. I expect Judd Street to attempt to make all. Drayton could contest the lead. He front ran in the July Cup and ran freely in eyeshields to lead in the Hackwood Stakes at Ascot, though in the Golden Jubilee he missed the break and did well chasing the pace. The eyeshields are left off and he has the outside stall, so a hold up ride is more likely? Beckermet could press the lead. He ran yesterday, mid div but not beaten far in the Steward’s Cup. He has no previous history of quick reappearances so with all the warm weather travelling involved it seems like a bad idea. Baltic King is suited by a stiff straight track, strong end to end gallop and the pack coming back to him. He could still win in these adverse circumstances but probably only if there is competition for the lead and hence a strong pace. Final Dynasty has a poor draw in 8 and may find it difficult to slot in close enough to the pace to give her a reasonable chance. Green Manalishi has just about stayed 6f in favourable conditions but is better at 5f. He has a good draw from which to stalk the pace but I expect him to weaken late on. Dhaular Dhar is the other with a chance. He has the plumb draw but is likely to be shuffled back.
A crystal ball showing the position at halfway would help more than a form book on this one. Ratings are of little use when a false run race is on the cards. If Drayton, say, is rushed up into the lead, all the analysis can be thrown out of the window.
On the basis that Judd Street could get an easy lead -
Selection - Judd Street @ 8/1 William Hill
Post Mortem
Judd Street was surprisingly well backed -> 4/1 but regretfully the analysis was blown out of the water inside the first furlong. Invincible Force, Drayton and even Final Dynasty wanted to be front rank, and Judd Street had to sit second rank on the rail. He is a horse that gradually winds up the pace and is hard to pass, but does not do anything very quickly. In hindsight not the best choice for Chester. Green Manlishi is a horse with a turn of foot and he beat Judd Street to the rail gap and had enough left to cling on.
Chester form can be instructive as to a horses tactical strengths and weaknesses. The form is not applicable to the average sprint though. Invincible Force won twice at Chester as a 2YO, and also at Warwick. There is no doubt that he does well on a sharp turning track on fast ground. He was on a fair handicap mark, but that will be going up now.
The Week Ahead (5th August)
Sun 5th - 4.10 Chester - 6f Listed
- 4.25 Newbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 6th - 3.20 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Tues 7th - Blackheath - 5.30 Catterick - 5f Class 6 Handicap
Wed 8th - 4.30 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 9th - 5.00 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 10th - 4.40 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
- 8.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 11th - 1.45 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Fillies Handicap
- 2.20 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.00 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.45 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 12th - 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.15 Curragh - 6f Group 3
A slow betting week where even the Class 4s at Brighton and Newmarket become contenders for a selection. Whilst the Shergar Cup at Ascot on Saturday has its good points - opportunity to see foreign jockeys, something fresh and different for the wider promotion of the sport, good prize money - many people regard it as a betting minefield. The reasons being team tactics, hard to fathom individual tactics, jockeys who don’t know the track etc. My own experience is that the sprints are OK so I expect to be having an interest, at least in the distaff.
Monday 6th August - 3.20 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Front running down the stand rail is a very successful tactic at Ripon on Good or faster going. The problem with this race was that there was likely to be competition for the rail between Celtic Sultan and Whitbarrow. It was difficult to see which was likely to have the advantage or whether they would cut each others throats by going too fast. However Celtic Sultan has been withdrawn, along with Bahamian Pirate and Wanchai Lad, which makes things easier, in theory.
Steel Blue could contest the lead but has a wider draw, has been racing in touch in recent races rather than contesting the lead and also appreciates much more ease in the ground than he will get today. Desert Commander and Inter Vision have good records at the track. Inter Vision won this race in 2005 and was short headed in 2004. Neither should catch Whitbarrow if everything goes according to plan.
Whitbarrow is one of those front runners who does not like being crowded, so success depends on getting a lead, but hopefully this should not be a problem.
Whitbarrow @ 3/1 (Generally, following adjustment of prices for the three withdrawals)
Post Mortem
Malcheek spoilt the party by pressing Whitbarrow from the start and heading him by halfway. This was the first time he had been tried at 6f on his favoured fast ground and he showed enough speed throughout to prove fully effective at the shorter trip. Having “surprised” his trainer Malcheek is now to be aimed at the Great St Wilfred. He will be a tough competitor in that but will probably go up 5 lb for this win. Inter Vision ran well from his unhelpful draw lumping a pound overweight. He will go up 2 or 3lbs for this but can win under his ideal conditions soon. Caribbean Coral also did well racing wider than ideal at Ripon, and is possibly close to another win.
Thursday 9th August - 5.00 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Firm ground at Brighton would not suit that many horses, but most of these have won or run well over course and distance, on similar going. The pace is likely to be fierce. Peter Island and One Way Ticket are unlikely to hold back and are two of the fastest front runners around in this sort of grade. So I think the winner is likely to come from off the pace and late. Jayanjay won over course and distance two outings ago. He got the perfect lead and won nicely but that appears to be as good as he is now, and he is 7 lb higher. I like Chatshow but his last two runs have been mediocre and he seems to go best for strong handling. Buy On The Red goes really well on firm going but he isn’t the quickest and I wonder whether he will get into this race. The race he won at Windsor fell nicely for him but he carries a 6lb penalty here and I do not think that he is a very worthy favourite. Who’s Winning is a possibility back to the mark he won off at Goodwood. He showed a beautiful smooth fast ground action that day and meets Peter Island on similar terms here. However I prefer a finisher for this one. Summer Recluse has been steadily coming back to his best, and comes out well on the ratings. He had to wait for a run behind Jayanjay last time and I think he will turn the tables.
Selection - Summer Recluse @ 11/2 (Stan James)
Friday 10th August - 8.15 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
If you could be confident that Obe Gold was coming back to something like his best form he would be of interest in this race. However we do not know what has been ailing him this past year. It could be breathing, bleeding, back or any number of things but we probably won’t find out until he wins one. In the circumstances I would rather be laying him than backing. Tamagin on faster ground, and if his opponents are ready for the front running tactics, is less likely to get things his own way this time. So the front two in the market have major question marks against them.
Orpen Wide was fully effective at sprint distances as a 2YO and 3YO winning two at 5f and two at 6f. The way he runs 7f suggests that he may be just as good at 6f now. Whether that is good enough to win this is another matter. The others do not have anything special going for them either. Two of them are coming back from breaks. Prince Namid is better on easy ground.
No Selection
Saturday 11th August - 2.00 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Very fast ground, if the showers stay away, and very fast horses. Cape Royal, Merlin’s Dancer and Harry Up are amongst the fastest front runners operating in 5f handicaps. Whether this will result in a lightning pace is anyone’s guess. We have had several races packed with pace lately and it’s seemed that there has been a front runners conspiracy not to take each other on. On other occasions the opposite has happened. However, this time, with others to press, such as Aegean Dancer, Tabaret and Judd Street there should be a strong pace. In which case the hold up horses like Dig Deep, Ishi Adiva and Texas Gold should prevail.
Saturday 11th August - 3.45 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Two particularly interest me in this one. Six furlongs on fast going are the ideal conditions and I expect them to come back to their best tomorrow. The pace should be quite strong with My Gacho, Bo McGinty and Mujood involved. Today Ellens Academy won well up the stand rail but this did not look to be because of a clear draw advantage, with the second Rydal racing wide.
Saturday 11th August - 1.45 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Fillies Handicap
Possibly the favourites are too short in this one? I take the view that last years winner Dark Missile’s excellent Wokingham victory was partly down to the obvious high draw advantage, partly due to her running particularly well for Buick with his 5lb claim, and also the easy going seemed to suit her. Why else would she suddenly have improved that much? At Newmarket with Buick claiming she went up a notch, and then in the Wokingham apparently improved again. Physically she did not stand out as above average in the Wokingham field. If I am correct then things will be tougher for her now, without Buick’s claim and on quicker ground.
Our Faye is going for a four timer. I have only read positive things about her win last time at Salisbury. However a five runner race on soft going, with a very slow timefigure must leave room for doubt as to whether she is really progressing very rapidly or just found conditions particularly suiting her. Although it is thought that she will be as effective at 6f as 7f, 6f on fast going at Ascot is a very different proposition from 7f on soft going at Salisbury.
But is there an alternative worth backing?
Saturday 11th August - 2.20 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only