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The Week Ahead (12th August) CURRENT RACE
Sun 12th - 3.40 Redcar - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.15 Curragh - 6f Group 3
Mon 13th - 7.15 Windsor - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.25 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 14th - 7.45 Nottingham - 5f Class 4 Conditions Stakes
Wed 15th - 3.10 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.00 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 16th - Blank
Fri 17th - Blackheath - 7.10 Catterick - 5f Class 6 Claimer
- 3.05 Doncaster - 5.6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.15 Newbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 18th - Ripon - 6f Heritage Handicap - Great St Wilfred Handicap
- Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap - Greys only
Sun 19th - Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed
Quite an interesting week ahead with the Great St Wilfred Handicap the highlight. That is not an early closing race so there is no Ante Post market yet. Two 5f races on “draw” tracks on Wednesday should also give betting opportunities, a nice 5.6f race at Doncaster and one of the “feel good” races of the year at Newmarket, the Greys only race.
Hopefully the unsuccessful run of late will end this week and we will start building up the profit again.
Monday 13th August - 7.15 Windsor - 6f Class3 Handicap
Fast going, as long as they do not overwater, something you cannot be sure of at Windsor. The far side course is in use and with a relatively small field the high draw advantage should be limited.
Beaver Patrol is likely to be favourite, and although he is in form and admirably consistent I cannot see why that gives him a particularly good chance in this race. After all, his form figures go 56055 in the last five runs and various form ratings (mine, Timeform, Racing Post) suggest that the handicapper has got hold of him. He is still 5lb above his highest winning mark. However because the last of those runs was in the Steward’s Cup and he has been running in Class 2 sprints the old “Class” issue gets brought up in his favour. In 20+ years I haven’t seen any evidence of “Class” playing a part in sprint handicaps. That horses higher up in the weights do somewhat better statistically than bottom weights could be down to all sorts of factors, including better quality jockeys riding the top weight. Emily Webber’s spotlight says Beaver Patrol “excelled himself in the Steward’s Cup...” yet the RP rating given is no higher than for his Newmarket win and he comes out joint bottom rated for this race in their list.
Well Beaver Patrol may win but if he is favourite it will be for the want of a solid alternative. The pace should come from either Lucayos or The Kiddykid. Beaver Patrol should lie handy. Adantino goes very well at Windsor but James Millman, his regular pilot, is not riding. Border Music has now been rehandicapped 8lb higher than at Goodwood. Golden Dixie has been a little off-form but now has Spencer riding. Lucayos only has an outside chance.
The Kiddykid is well handicapped on old form but shows no sign of a revival yet. One More Round has been off the track since May, in which month he was 2 1/4 length 7th to Beaver Patrol on 7lb worse terms, with The Kiddykid (now 15 lbs better) another length back. One day in the not too distant future The Kiddykid will reward his long suffering supporters with a big odds win, but there are no positive signs that it will be today. Perhaps he has deteriorated, or perhaps David Evans has just been biding his time. The Ayr Gold Cup closes on August 22nd. Someone looking to win the AGC with a very well handicapped horse might wait until the entries close then try to get in with a 5lb penalty. It will take a horse with a rating of about 94 or 95 to get in.
Obe Gold and Phantom Whisper seem marginally the most likely winners of a very open contest.
Update 7pm
With doubts about the effect of watering (normal at Windsor) and possible disadvantage of racing near the rail (definitely not normal) this is probably one to steer clear of. On reflection Beaver Patrol probably has as good a chance as Obe Gold, Phantom Whisper and a number of others. After ages spent thinking about this one, watching videos of the horses involved and trying to find an angle I am happy to watch it with no financial interest.
No Selection
Post Mortem
Phantom Whisper was ridden much more prominently than usual, indeed he made all down the stand rail, which possibly was advantageous. He continues to progress steadily though this win will probably make it tough for him in the short term.
Tueday 14th August - 7.45 Nottingham - 5f Class 4 Conditions Stakes
An interesting tactical contest. The going has eased a fraction and there should be plenty more rain at Nottingham. The pace should be OK, with Galeota, Turn On The Style and Tabaret involved, though the first couple of furlongs could be cat and mouse.
Galeota is a strong running 6f/7f horse with a very high cruising speed. Whether he would be quite as effective at 5f is a question mark. Whether he will return to his best of two years ago, or indeed improve on his recent Windsor return is anyones guess. Perhaps the market will reflect what the stable thinks. The majority of top horses returning after very long breaks do not recapture the heights previously attained. My guess, for what it is worth, is that he will settle down to a level higher than at Windsor, but not much. The market invariably reflects optimism. Many punters seem to want to believe that a top horse will return to its former best in one magnificent bound. It rarely happens. Of course Galeota does not need a lot more on ratings than he managed when coming second to Presto Shinko at Windsor, but he may have been flattered by staying ahead of a bunch of horses with weak form there.
Biniou, 4th in last years Prix L’Abbaye is the other classy horse in the race. Even though Biniou showed better form last time he does not yet appear to be at the level required to win this. The Jobber is in the form of his life and has to be the most likely to win, if Galeota does not. The other four with a chance are much of a muchness.
The decision comes down to do we want to take Galeota on with The Jobber. Of course the race is much more complicated than that but I would not want to back any of the others.
Update
Turn On The Style has been withdrawn, which is in Galeota’s favour.
However the rain is probably against him and no problem for The Jobber.
Selection - The Jobber @ 10/3 (Betdirect and Better - no Rule 4)
The Jobber was withdrawn, which was a shame as he had run two or three good races on Good/Soft before and the going in the straight was no worse than Good(Good/Soft). Still when trainers get these bees in their bonnets it is just as well that the horses do not run as running poorly because of the ground becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Post Mortem
Wednesday 15th August - 3.10 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Divine Spirit stands top of my ratings and Timeform ratings, has won his last two races, has won off 5lb and 7lb higher marks in his younger days, has Seb Sanders in the saddle, very suitable conditions and the plumb high draw at Beverley. There are a number of inform horses in the race, but I couldn’t fancy any of them to beat Divine Spirit in these circumstances.
Selection - Divine Spirit @ 3/1 (Sporting Odds)
Post Mortem
Wednesday 15th August - 6.00 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Two of the three front runners have been withdrawn leaving Blessed Place who could grab the far rail and make all. Of the others left after mass defections only Malapropism, Harrison’s Flyer, She’s Minnie and Canadian Danehill have been in good form. If the apprentice on Blessed Place can judge the pace right he maybe able to hang on. At the available prices it is worth the chance imho.
Selection - Blessed Place @ 9/1 (Stan James, Skybet)
Post Mortem
Friday 17th August - 3.40 Doncaster - 5.6f Class 3 Handicap
Doncaster reopens and for the sprinters an intriguing race over the intermediate distance of 5f 140yds. More 6f than 5f but most definitely a test of speed on fast ground. How fast we don’t know. This is a rehearsal for the Portland Handicap run over the same trip in three weeks time. Looking at the horses who have done well in that race emphasises the need for a horse fast enough to win at 5f, but predominently a 6f horse.
The draw is an unknown given that the track has not been used for two years. There has usually been a small but persistent high draw advantage over the years at Doncaster. Pace is often an important factor in deciding which is the best place on the track to be and in this race there are front runners and pressers spread across the track - fastest first - Peter Island (1), Loch Verdi (15), Mimi Mouse (8), Gallery Girl (17), Spanish Ace (5), Corridor Creeper (14) and Misaro (2). Danum Dancer is out. It is difficult to see an advantage there, unless it is on the far side, so there may be no draw bias.
Fast ground and the need for a 5f/6f horse in form and on a reasonable mark throws up the following list :-
Peter Island, Sunrise Safari, Caribbean Coral, Golden Dixie, Gallery Girl, Misaro, and possibly Dig Deep (who has three wins at 7f but has improved at the bare 5f). Woodcote and Loch Verdi do not seem to be in “winning” form. Of those I would draw a line through two are prominent in the betting - Gift Horse (best some ease, poor recent form although difficult conditions on occasions, experiment with headgear, but Spencer is a positive) and Geojimali (9/1? - this is a test of speed).
Sunrise Safari is not a high profile horse but has a progressive record, with two wins this season from five races. A pipeopener was followed by winning at Ayr over 5f, “going away”. Then he ran a good race over 6f behind Machinist at Hamilton, very free early (as usual), held up in rear, unable quite to make up the leeway when they quickened, but staying on well into 4th, nearest finish. It is best to forget his racing alone on the disadvantaged far side at Hamilton in the race won by Knot In Wood. Last time he came late and stayed on strongly to deny Elkhorn at Newcastle over 5f. So a good 5f/6f profile. A hold up horse that comes late, the type the handicapper has trouble getting to grips with. He goes well on Good/Soft but his best numbers on the computer are for the Redcar Two Year Old Trophy on Firm. He should get a nice tow down the stand rail from the likes of Gallery Girl, Loch Verdi and Corridor Creeper. Things usually open out late over 5.6f here as demonstrated in Halmahera’s three Portland wins. The spread pace should help. However there is a danger that it will get tight on the rail with Caribbean Coral, Dig Deep and Golden Dixie also looking for gaps.
Selection - Sunrise Safari @ 15/2 (William Hill, 7/1 generally)
Post Mortem
Sunrise Safari was withdrawn.
The race gives us information about a horses ability at the intermediate distance of 5.6f and so is of some value in understanding horses optimum conditions.
Great St Wilfred - Saturday 18th August
Sponsors William Hill have opened an Ante Post market which goes like this -
9 Indian Trail, 10 Prince Tamino, Tawassol, 11 Beaver Patrol, Orpsie Boy, 12 Fantasy Believer, Fayr Jag, Ice Planet, Joseph Henry, Judd Street, Machinist, 14 Bounty Quest, Dhaular Dhar, Fullandby, Mutamared, Partners In Jazz, Zomerlust, 16 Dianes Choice, Grantley Adams, Malcheek, Philharmonic, Roman Maze, Skhilling Spirit, Turnkey, 20 bar
With 23 runners normally splitting into two groups the Great St Wilfred is a “draw” race which often favours the far side particularly on easy ground. Ripon are expecting an inch of rain in the next two days and the going to ease to Good/Soft or Soft drying out a little at the weekend. With the draw and going important considerations I doubt whether many punters will be interested in Ante Post prices. There may be one or two phoney market moves in the meantime but I shall be waiting until the draw is known on Thursday.
Update Friday
Ripon missed most of the rain in midweek. The going description is currently Good, though it must have been drying up over the last two days and some Good/Firm may appear in the description. However there is a rain belt coming through on Saturday and it is impossible to estimate what effect this is going to have. The only thing I would be inclined to rule out at this stage is the winner being a soft ground horse drawn low. It looks like being a late decision on Saturday.
Update Saturday 12.05pm
Ripon seems to have missed most of the rain overnight and this morning so it is unlikely that the mudlarks and horses that need stiff/testing conditions at 6f will get into this? I expect some rain but not a big change in going. So backers of the favourite Zomerlust in particular could be unlucky. :-) The going stick reading was 8.7 which on most tracks is close to Good/Firm, so perhaps the Clerk of the Course has waited for the rain and not changed the going description because of it.
One of the important points about this race is the very limited number of front runners or pressers in it. As far as I can see Malcheek (drawn 21) is the only horse likely to want to front run, although Obe Brave (20) has done so on occasions. FayrJag (13) and Grantley Adams (2) have also been close to the pace on occasions. Grantley Adams may grudgingly accept front running duties on the stand rail. But for a 6f heritage handicap this is an unusual race and the lack of pace makers could have a major bearing on the result. I expect at least two thirds of the field to go to the far side. If the stand side do not get a move on from the stalls they could be at a major disadvantage, as happened to the high drawn runners in the Stewards Cup. Just one furlongs hesitation will be curtains.
In view of this I had quite a large each way bet on Malcheek at Coral’s 20/1 on Thursday to make all down the far rail, but have laid most of it off now as I believe he really needs fast going to be at his very best. Orpsie Boy is a horse I fear but his 11 draw is unhelpful unless he can both slot in quickly and get the good tow he needs. He is probably best on a sound surface. Several with otherwise good claims are drawn very low - Wyatt Earp, Ice Planet, Fullandby, Roman Maze, and Grantley Adams, Indian Trail is also drawn lowish and would not want much rain.
So if I am correct (??) the race has an excellent betting shape. My assumptions are a moderate far side draw bias, a far side pace bias, Good going (possibly Good/Soft in places). On this basis the selection virtually picks itself.
Concentrating on the six horses drawn highest -
Zomerlust - requires some combination of testing ground/stiff track/strong pace which he should not have here. Off a career high mark I would be surprised if he could win.
Kostar - his claim rests on the 5 length win at Pontefract which is head and shoulders above anything he did before or since. Adam K’s verdict was that Kostar is talented but has his problems (unspecified). Kostar went up a lot in the handicap for that, prefers a sound surface and so seems an unlikely winner.
Malcheek - will probably try to make all, and could bring my place money home, but will need more than for the C/D win and if it rains a lot his chance may slip away.
Obe Brave - 6 months off, has gone well fresh. His form flatters him a touch, but he may get a similar race today, ie up with the pace in a modest pace draw bias race. Jockey booking 1/1 this season, but probably not a positive. A chance if he is 100%?
The Tatling - It is not 5f, it is not fast ground, and there will probably not be a strong pace.
Fantasy Believer - still higher than highest winning mark but won Portland by 3 lengths off 93 and now 95. High on ratings (me and Timeform). Ripon record patchy though he has come 1st and 2nd there. Back with the jockey that gets the very best out of him. Apart from Ripon record everything positive.
Selection - Fantasy Believer 2 pts @ 11/1 (Betfred and Coral)
Post Mortem
Five of the first six were those drawn highest i.e nearest the far rail. The one exception was Indian Trail, drawn 9, who was switched quickly to the far side and barged his way onto the far rail mid div in typical Adrian Nicholls no-nonsense style. Unfortunately the high drawn horse discussed above that suffered from this was Fantasy Believer. He was barged out of a very nice position third rank on the rail, thereby “persuading” his jockey to switch off the rail. If that wasn’t bad enough Adrian then hampered Fantasy Believer coming back the other way when he switched off the rail to challenge. Fantasy Believer would have been a lot closer without the antics of Indian Trail but he probably wouldn’t have been better than placed. The high draw bias in the Great St Wilfred was as strong as ever and there was some talk after the race of taking measures to level the playing field. We’ll see.
Kostar just clung onto his lead under an excellent Philip Robinson front running ride and may be handicapped out of things for a while. He was well backed, probably on “the higher the draw the better” principle. Malcheek will have things easier up front in an average race and could win soon on fast ground. The Tatling ran much better than I thought he might, and is no back number over 6f. He is the best part of a stone inferior to The Tatling of a couple of years ago, and the clock is ticking, so he is probably not a betting proposition unless he turns up at a stiff 5f on fast ground. The public soon forgets about the high draw advantage some horses had in this and accepts the form as gospel, so the first five may well be overbet in their next races, especially Indian Trail.
The stand side seven had no chance. Fullandby finished first in quite a distinguished group that raced along the stand rail.
Sunday 19th August - 3.40 Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed
Some of these are trying to fluke some black type and others eg Ripples Maid, Folga, and Diamond Diva may get into the race, but do not look quite good enough to win. It is a strong race of its type.
This leaves Song Of Passion (already established amongst the top ten sprint fillies imo), Bee Eater (rapidly approaching top rank), Moone Cross, and Final Dynasty (perhaps ideally suited by 5f and ease but Chester race not a fair reflection and is a threat).
Moone Cross is very quick and shocked me when she took Mr Wolf on for the lead at Chester last August, and passed him readily around the outside midrace! It seemed to me that she was sure to do some damage over 5f, but has been kept to 6f and has not shown anything special ridden from the back in soft ground Irish races. 6f at Pontefract will not see the best of her, though if she front runs laying her in running might be profitable.
When will Bee Eater’s improvement stop? Last time at Newmarket she looked to have it all to do to catch Come Out Fighting but in the end got there almost comfortably. Fast going and a stiff track seem to play to her strengths and that is exactly what she has this afternoon, unless they get a lot of late rain.
Song Of Passion is very useful and has that valuable asset, tactical speed. She can be placed handily in any race, kick clear and her 7f stamina means she is not likely to stop in front. I was very impressed with her win at Epsom and she has won again at Chester. If she goes clear at Ponte even Bee Eater will find it difficult to catch her.
It is hard to predict what the pace will be like. They have looked reluctant to front run with Ripples Maid lately, which was part of Knot In Wood’s undoing in the Steward’s Cup. Moone Cross could lead or maybe Final Dynasty, but it is most likely to be a cagey race. If it is then Song Of Passion will be favoured rather than Bee Eater. Whatever, it could be an intriguing little Spencer v Sanders duel.
If the two were the same odds I would be, just, in the Bee Eater camp. But Bee Eater is 11/8 and Song Of Passion is 9/2.
Song Of Passion @ 9/2 (Sportingbet)
Post Mortem
With the ground softer than expected the confidence in Bee Eater ebbed away and Song Of Passion went off a well backed second favourite at 9/4. I was hoping for a very big run but straight from the stalls she did not travel at all as well as I expected, making heavy weather of staying front rank. By the turn Jamie Spencer was accepting that something was amiss and he eased down 2f out. Bitterly disappointing.
Bee Eater ran a long way below par on the easy ground. On fast going she should still be followed.
So with the two favourites out of it something had to win. Back, early in the season I sang the praises of Ripples Maid, her solid ratings (unlike many fillies running in Listed/Group company) and tactical speed. However carrying a 4lb Listed penalty I really did not see her winning this one. Of the horses with a chance Ripples Maid and Diamond Diva were the only ones who seemed to run anywhere near their best.
The Week Ahead (19th August)
Sun 19th - 3.40 Pontefract - 6f Fillies Listed
Mon 20th - Blackheath - 2.15 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 6 All Weather Handicap
- 6.30 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 21st - 5.00 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Wed 22nd - 3.25 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.00 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 23rd - 3.10 York - 5f Group 1 - Nunthorpe Stakes
Fri 24th - 5.30 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 25th - Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
- Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet Sprint
- Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 26th - Blank
Monday 20th August - 2.15 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 6 All Weather Handicap
I looked at this race because I thought Blackheath would stand a good chance in it. He does, back with a more sensible combination of trip, track, distance and jockey. As long as he has recovered from Friday’s race and the wide draw proves not to be a major disadantage. He should be placed at least. However Jilly Why is exceptionally well treated on current turf form and old All Weather form. For the first half of her career her AW mark was just as high as her Turf mark. Following some poor Winter campaigns her All Weather mark has fallen to 50, while she is currently running well with no luck off marks of 65-69 on turf. She could be thrown in off 50.
Selection - Jilly Why @ 4/1 generally
Post Mortem
Blackheath would have gone close if he had been dropped in rather than contesting the lead. Competition to get across from a wide draw in a handy position resulted in several getting in each others way and Jilly Why was perhaps the worst sufferer. She was widest round the bend, stayed on, never dagerous. A lesson to not meddle with Class 6 handicaps at Wolverhampton.
Late News
Jilly Why wins a 7f Handicap off a 18lb higher mark at, of all places, The Curragh on Saturday 25th August.
Truly odd !
Tuesday 21st August - 5.00 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The going should be Good. At the last meeting the far 60% of the track was churned up in heavy conditions and the Clerk Of The Course is reported to have confirmed that the fresh strip on the stand side is the best (quickest) ground. That makes sense because the far side was opened right up in wet conditions, so I will believe him. This once only.
The centre is invariably the place to race down the York sprint course, and I have never liked draws near the stand rail. There are often slower patches near the rail in the first couple of furlongs and anyway the pace is usually attracted to the centre. So tomorrow I think something like stalls 11-17 will be best. Away from the used ground and off the stand rail.
It so happens that the strongest pace should be close to the stand rail. Merlins Dancer is drawn 20 and Cape Royal (17). Three possible pressers, Tabaret (14), Corridor Creeper (16) and Gallery Girl (19) are also drawn very high. Other speedy horses in the race are Fire Up The Band (9), Judd Street (6) and Guto (5), but I expect there to be a big pace bias towards stalls 14-20. Ten days ago at Haydock Cape Royal and Merlins Dancer were the hares that set up a career best for Judd Street. This time the chasers racing directly behind the flying pair may have the best chances, though they will have to start their effort early if they are going to catch the speed horses.
After his last two undistinguished efforts it is a surprise to see Buachaill Dona overnight favourite. That can’t be right?
You could forgive his poor run at Haydock behind Sierra Vista due to the firm ground, but I did not hear a good reason for his poor run at Ascot. A market move could be significant though.
If Merlin’s Dancer was ridden to track Cape Royal he could win but my selection will probably be drawn in the 13 to 18 area.
Update 11 am Tuesday
There isn’t a race on the straight track until 4.25 so theories about the going and draw may remain theories until then. If the stand side is markedly better than the far side runners in the longer distance races could swing over to the stand side, which would be a clear indication from trainers and jockeys that have walked the course.
Even with draw and pace bias assumed, taking the majority of the runners out of the equation, this race is still a fiendish puzzle. Can the front runners stay in front? Which horses are best placed to get that all important tow? Which horses are fast enough to stay handy, to then have a chance to wear down the leaders?
Going through those drawn 13 to 18 -
Buachaill Dona has the top rating based on last years York run, and his 6f seasonal debut seemed to suggest that he would be at least as good back over 5f this season. After the last two runs it is an act of faith to believe that he will spring back to his best. He went very well at Goodwood last year but could he be best at York? He really hasn’t had enough runs to be confident of working him out. There are no signs yet of any market confidence.
Tabaret is a little down on my ratings but certainly ran well from a bad draw at Haydock. He has the speed to stay handy and pick the front runners off. Fortune riding is a bonus. One for the short list.
Efistorm seems to be both improving and showing more speed as the season progresses. The fact that he is stepping up in class has no significance for me because I do not believe in the concept so far as handicap sprints are concerned. However he has been running well on stiff tracks like Beverley and Sandown and the biggest question mark for me is will he be outpaced early? He kept close to Melalchrist last time so maybe he will be OK. Providing he is not forced to go too fast too early he will be finishing as well as anything.
Corridor Creeper seems to have gone off the boil but with Ryan Moore in the saddle a better showing would not surprise me. Not on my short list though.
Cape Royal does not have a good record at York. On his form last time and on a front runners track you would have to fancy him otherwise. At Haydock he saw off Merlins Dancer and would have been a 3 1/2 length winner without Judd Street’s career best. He also showed blistering speed at Sandown and Ascot. Making all off a mark of 92 is a tough ask.
Continent surprised me at Goodwood. I didn’t think that he still had the speed to win over a sharp 5f on good ground. However it seems unlikely that he will stay close enough to these.
The very short list is Tabaret and Efistorm.
Late Update
There is just a bit of ease in the ground and that would favour Efistorm more than Tabaret. The draw did not look crucial in the 6f Nursery but a 5f all age handicap is a different animal. At the prices I just favour Efistorm.
Selection - Efistorm @ 12/1 (generally)
Post Mortem
After all that speculation there was no discernable draw bias on the stand side half of the track on which they all raced. It seemed like half the field wanted to be front rank or handy. This set it up for the hold up horses, and the 1,2,3 were all in rear at halfway and by design or luck were having a breather midrace whilst most of the runners were fighting for position. Efistorm was always fighting for his place in the ruck, flat to the boards, a comment which applies to much of the field. River Falcon is often backed and I took little notice of the shortening in his early price. I am not convinced that this sudden leap back to very top form was just a happy coincidence. Hoh Hoh Hoh also ran better than previously this season.
Buachaill Dona looked like he was going to win. TV pictures at York can be misleading; when seen from the other side it often looks quite different. Anyway whilst he ran close to his best he still isn’t reaching the level many expected. Perhaps this is just as good as he is. Making ground up the rail, where Buachaill Dona raced, has looked no disadvantage this week (eg Greek Well and Northern Fling).
Wednesday 22nd August - 5.00 York - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
In yesterday’s sprint, apart from racing on the stand side half of the track, there appeared to be no draw bias. Buachaill Dona raced close to the stand rail and River Falcon challenged widest of all. In the event hold up horses were favoured. In particular the first three horses were at the back after 2f, they all got a breather at some point in the race and plenty of cover through it.
This race could be different. Who knows? There is more pace drawn low than high. Morinqua in stall 8 can be expected to try to make all as usual. Maker’s Mark beat older horses at Newbury the other day chasing down Peter Island and I quite fancy his chance from stall 17 now that his stable are in better form. However from my point of view there are too many unknowns to be financially involved.
No Selection
Post Mortem
Last year in this race three horses finished three lengths clear, Terentia, Buachaill Dona and Fantasy Explorer, and they were marked down by many observers as sure improvers and winners of good races in the future. In the last year they have won just one race between the three of them. Analysing Wednesday’s race brought on a bout of the deva vus. Northern Fling, Special Day and Peak District also finished three lengths clear. Behind them was rock solid recent form in the shape of Morinqua and Valery Borzov. So I am taking the three length gap at face value and accepting that the three of them showed improvement and in all likelihood are that far ahead of the handicapper until reassessed. It must have been a shock for the supporters of Irish horse Peak District, who weighed in to make him 10/3 favourite, only to find two horses finishing to even greater effect.
Thursday 23rd August - 3.10 York - 5f Group One - Nunthorpe Stakes
Judged on the first few races at York on Tuesday the going is just on the easy side Good in the straight. The weather is set fair for the next two days and tomorrow should be a fine breezy day with drying conditions. As expected the runners have headed for the stand side half of the track. The Nunthorpe draw puts most of the front runners in the lower numbers.
Wednesday Update
With the stand side so heavily used yesterday and a drying day today the used ground should dry out quicker. So I imagine that the trend for racing stand side will last through the meeting. It must be best to race towards the stand rail in the Nunthorpe. I expect the going to be on the fast side of good come 3.10 on Thursday.
This is a rather stronger race than the 2006 Nunthorpe. On my ratings there are seven horses over 120 (CRF scale) compared with only two last year. Reverence won that race impressively on soft ground but he will not have his ideal conditions this time. Others towards the top of my ratings and on the short list include Amadeus Wolf, Red Clubs, Desert Lord and Moorhouse Lad. Magnus has a good each way chance (at 10/1 with Bet365) if he can repeat the King’s Stand form where he was just a neck behind Dandy Man in 3rd place. He showed excellent speed taking over in the lead from Desert Lord and Moorhouse Lad when those trail blazers started to tire. If he can repeat that he may be hard to catch. The Aussies have patiently hung around for this race, and maybe he has dropped off the radar of many punters.
However I think that Dandy Man will have conditions sufficiently in his favour tomorrow to overcome the hoodoo which has seen him thwarted by soft ground or bad draws in top races for over a year. If the ground does not dry out he could be unlucky again, but with Sakhee’s Secret absent I think he will prove himself the best 5f sprinter in Europe at last.
Selection - Dandy Man 2 pts @ 7/2 (Coral) (3/1 maybe the best available now)
Friday 24th August - 5.30 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Soft going, Stand Side Track, Stalls far side.
The field has cut up already with Total Impact, Handsome Cross and Tony The Tap out.
Bond Boy is good enough to win this on two pieces of form this season. On most runs he has had an apprentice aboard but he really needs strong handling and it is probably significant that Jimmy Fortune rides today. A stiff 5f on soft going with strong handling is ideal these days. Efistorm is the danger and I expect him to run well.
Selection - Bond Boy @ 3/1 (Paddy Power)
Saturday 25th August - 3.00 Beverley - 5f Listed - Beverley Bullet Sprint
The going will be just on the fast side of good and a high draw as important as ever, no doubt. Borderlescott is top on ratings but all his form is at 6f, where his high cruising speed and stamina to last the trip well are his two biggest assets. Whether he will be as effective at 5f where they usually go a higher tempo earlier in the race we shall see tomorrow. It certainly is not a given.
Baltic King is next highest rated but has proved over and over again that he is not as good in Listed and Group sprints as he is in the big handicaps where they go off fast, and come back to him. He seems to need a clear run to build momentum which he is unlikely to get in a 14 runner Beverley sprint.
Borderlescott is drawn 8, which is not ideal, and Baltic King is drawn 1, which is awful. Others well up in the ratings who also have poor draws are Pivotal’s Princess, Tax Free and Hellvelyn.
Update 1.15pm
A listed sprint at Beverley is a bit of a minefield. Amongst all the uncertainties the main friend you have is the draw. Tawaassol has the best draw and on his close 3rd in the Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) and 4th at Sandown he stands a good chance. The jockey will need to be busy early to maintain his good pitch on the rail. After a long break he was a little outpaced racing along the stand rail in the race won by Moorhouse Lad at Goodwood, but stayed on pleasingly. Bearing in mind who trains him there is every reason to believe he will be 100% today and the right tactics will be employed.
It would be no surprise to see the Dandy Nicholls pair go off fast and try to get over to the rail, causing bunching and ruining the chance of some in mid div. The two favourites Borderlescott and Hellvelyn will be right in the middle of it. Good Luck !
Selection - Tawaassol @ 8/1 (generally)
Saturday 25th August - 3.25 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Hopeful Stakes
The times on Friday confirmed the Soft going description. Saturday’s racing is being switched to the fresh gound of the far side course.
The going and stiff finish should suit Balthazaar’s Gift, who is top on ratings. He has to carry a 7lb penalty but he is a horse of Group 1 ability and well up to doing so in this Listed company. Rising Shadow has to carry a 4lb penalty and really needs testing conditions to stand a chance at this level. Fonthill Road, Presto Shinko and Firenze should all go well in the conditions and chase Balthazaar’s Gift home. Shmookh is on an upward curve but has seemed best on a sound surface so far.
Unfortunately Balthazaar’s Gift will be much too short in the betting to be of interest.
Saturday 25th August - 5.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
This race may become of interest as the afternoon’s action progresses. The soft going may help to narrow the field down. There are a couple of runners who will be prominent in the betting but are difficult to catch right, namely Geojimali and Swinbrook, and an improving 3YO Racing Post favourite who has plenty to do.
Saturday 25th August - 3.45 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
There will be a selection for this race.
10 am update
Mujood goes well at Goodwood. He won there in May off a mark of 84. Then ran well in the Dingaan/Cape/Viking Spirit race where he was 4th, and again when 6th in the Stewards Cup consolation race, both times off 89. He is back down to 85 today, in a less competitive race. I think his chance is improved by being drawn in the middle where he will be up with the pace. His regular jockey is back on. He has every bit as good a chance as the favourite Golden Dixie and should be around 7/1 or 8/1. 16/1 was available overnight with Paddy Power, but 12/1 is the best now.
Selection - Mujood @ 12/1 (generally)
The Week Ahead (26th August)
Sun 26th - Blank
Mon 27th - 3.00 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.00 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
- 5.05 Newcastle - 6f Class 4 Handicap.
Tues 28th - Blank -
Wed 29th - Blackheath - 3.20 Catterick - 5f Class 6 Handicap
- 4.40 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 30th - 4.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 31st - 4.45 Hamilton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 1st - 2.20 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.45 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.15 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 3.50 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.25 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 2nd - 5.05 The Curragh - 5f Group 3 - The Flying Five
Monday 27th August - 4.00 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
Selection - Mutamared @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)
Saturday 1st September - 2.20 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This should be run at a rapid pace with lots of front runners - Peter Island, Windjammer, Raccoon, Handsome Cross, Bluebok, Kay Two and The History Man. Spanish Ace, Coconut Moon and Misaro may also be close to the pace. Out of this lot I would expect Peter Island to get the rail and try to make all, but he should be hard pressed. So second or third rank on the rail may be the best place to be.
Coconut Moon is in good form, second to Efistorm last time. She goes well at Chester, won this last year, has an excellent 3lb claimer aboard, and by no means least she has the plumb 1 draw.
At 7/2 she may not seem a generous price but from the 1 draw she will be hard to beat.
Selection - Coconut Moon @ 7/2 (Paddy Power, Stan James)
Saturday 1st September - 3.45 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap
In the two sprints run on Friday it looked better to be drawn high than low. But with the far rail set in 4 yds there is probably not a lot in it. The draw does not seem to favour the two 3YOs, but the older horses with the best recent form may be getting high enough in the handicap now? So it is an interesting puzzle.
Marozi is very well regarded. He was an entry in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Group 1) before his win at Goodwood where he was on a mark of just 80. He now holds an entry in the Diadem Stakes (Group 2). This would not necessarily be significant but he is trained by Michael Jarvis who usually takes a realistic view of his horses abilities. Marozi was also very well backed for the Goodwood race. The way he won suggested that there is more to come.
A feature of the season has been the exceptional success of the 3YOs against the older horses, so for once I am going to go along with potential rather than proven merit.
Selection - Marozi @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 1st September - 3.50 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
With 11 runners and Good/Firm going it is unlikely that any will go to the far rail. So a low draw is best. Inter Vision has a good record at Ripon, goes well on a fast surface, is poised to win, but has the worst possible draw. He is not having much luck. Malcheek has a good enough draw to get the rail and faster ground than he had in the Great St Wilfred will help him. He must run well. Highland Warrior, Ice Planet and Damika are drawn close to the rail and will be dangers. At the prevailing price I cannot select Malcheek, and I have no particular preference for one of the lower drawn horses.
Saturday 1st September - 7.25 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Fast ground and perhaps this time a low draw will prove to be advantageous. Mr Wolf would be favourite if this was at Pontefract but he is not as good away from his favourite track where it is easier for him to dominate. Here Harry Up will contest the lead and is a more likely winner. Others who have been racing prominently such as First Order and Sir Nod will find it difficult to get to the front in this race. Sunrise Safari finishes well but a stiffer track would be more in his favour. Blazing Heights is well handicapped but not easy to win with. Buachaill Dona may find conditions a little quick.
Of the highest rated horses Harry Up seems to have conditions most in his favour.
Selection - Harry Up @ 9/1 (Coral)
The Website was transferred to a new server by my ISP over the weekend, so website updating was delayed. The above selections were posted on Saturday morning resulting in one winner and two losers. Coconut Moon was an obvious one. There was a disappointing run from Marozi and a near miss from Harry Up, who was caught close home by the very annoying Buachaill Dona. This sprinting week does not really get going until Friday, though we will have a look at the Warwick Class 4. Sakhee’s Secret dominates the Spring Cup market at 2/1 and may well go much shorter in the betting. There may be opportunities elsewhere in the Betfair place market.
The Week Ahead (2nd September)
Sun 2nd - 5.05 The Curragh - 5f Group 3 - The Flying Five
Mon 3th - Blank
Tues 4th - 3.55 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 5th - Blank
Thurs 6th - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 7th - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Classified Stakes (0-90)
- 3.30 Newbury - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sat 8th - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.10 Haydock - 6f Group One - Betfred Sprint Cup
Sun 9th - 3.55 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Thursday 6th September - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fast ground and a sharp turning track with a short run-in. A low drawn front runner would be ideal, but there isn’t one.
Whitbarrow is the most likely leader with Spanish Ace, Who’s Winning and Bazroy handy. There are five 3YOs in the race all with some sort of chance. Whitbarrow ran into a tough nut in Malcheek at Ripon. The chances are that he will be harried for the lead again. He or Who’s Winning would carry my money if I was forced to have a bet, but the Racing Post tissue has them at unattractive odds.
No Selection
Friday 7th September - 3.30 Newbury - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fast going and the stalls on the stand rail, so high numbers a bit better than low. Despite the small field the pace should be fair with My Gacho, Greenslades and The Kiddykid likely to tow them along, and Beaver Patrol will press. There is very little between most of them on my ratings.
Greenslades would like some ease in the ground and Obe Gold the very strong pace of a big field handicap. Ceremonial Jade would like another furlong and Go On Be A Tiger a trip to call his own.
The Kiddykid is going to come up with a win soon, I can sense it. Barney McGrew may not quite be quick enough in the conditions?
So far My Gacho has not been fully fit since his return from a two month break. At Goodwood he was carrying loads of condition and he seemed to tire quickly at Haydock having led to the furlong marker. The fast ground cannot be expected to last a lot longer so it is getting close to now or never for him this season. The booking of Jamie Spencer is interesting. He has a 20% strike rate for David Barron from around a dozen rides a season.
The favourites will be Genki and Beaver Patrol. Genki has had a super 3YO season and I believe he will eventually go on to better things. He reminds me a bit of his stables improving 3YOs Move It and Alderney Race of a few years ago. He will need to have improved since Ascot with the hike in handicap mark. Beaver Patrol is another solid contender, but I think he may find one or two to beat him again.
Selection tomorrow after the 6f Nursery.
Update 2.45pm
Genki is a general 7/4, which is too short. My Gacho can be backed at 14/1 with Blue Square, Stan James and Sportingbet. He has a much better chance than his odds suggest, and win or lose I expect him to come back to form. He is a pound lower than the mark he won off at Thirsk only four runs ago. After the race it may be a case of better a short priced winner than a long priced loser. Who knows?
Selection - My Gacho @ 14/1
Friday 7th September - 3.45 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Classified Stakes (0-90)
At the last meeting there was a strong stand rail draw bias which helped Judd Street and High Curragh to victory. So I will delay a selection until after the 5f and 6f 2YO races to see whether the bias is still there and whether the jockeys are likely to use it?
Fast conditions and plenty of pace in the race with Angus Newz, Fire Up The Band and Malcheek.
My short list consists of Malcheek, High Curragh and Come Out Fighting. As these are the three overnight favourites finding value could be a problem. High Curragh may have been flattered by the draw advantage last time. The handicapper may just have Malcheek now, also the 2 draw may not be helpful. Come Out Fighting has bled and been inconsistent this season.
Update 3pm
They seem to have put plenty of water on the track, no doubt with tomorrow’s Group One in mind. Perhaps because of this they are racing down the centre with no discernable draw bias. The watering will not help Malcheek and the lack of a stand rail bias puts me off High Curragh. Come Out Fighting comes top of my ratings, apart from One More Rounds old form. A repeat of his placed form against Bee Eater and Zidane is good enough to win here.
Selection - Come Out Fighting @ 6/1 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 8th September - 2.05 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
I have fond memories of this race which Blackheath won in 2003.
Going on the fast side of Good and possibly no draw bias after watering. Coconut Moon, Invincible Force, Judd Street, Corridor Creeper and Tabaret should be handy. Normally though Cape Royal injects strong pace into any race and should lead down the centre.
My short list is Tabaret, Special Day and Dig Deep. I am hoping that the conditions will favour a pure 5f horse and the likes of Indian Trail and Golden Dixie will now be high enough in the handicap and find conditions a bit quick.
Update 9am
Tabaret needs fast ground so the Good/Soft at York and Ascot was against him and he faded out of it after being prominent both times. At Haydock in between he ran well, best of the low draws when the big stand rail bias assisted Judd Street. Last time he was out of his league behind Hellvelyn at Beverley but still ran to a rating that would give him every chance today. So this is the first race where he has had a chance since being short headed by Celtic Mill at Newmarket. IMHO he has as good a chance as anything today and should be 8/1 or thereabouts. In fact he is generally 16/1 and 20/1 with Victor Chandler. This is good value, something that is in short supply in the Racing Post Website/Betfair age.
Selection - Tabaret @ 20/1 (Victor Chandler)
Saturday 8th September - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Group One - Betfred Sprint Cup
Sakhee’s Secret has been heavily backed into 5/4. Although he is the most likely winner by some way this is much too short to interest me. Conditions will probably be ideal but the 3YOs will have 4lb less wfa allowance than in the July Cup, so have a bit more to do. Haydock has been a graveyard for short priced 3YO favourites with Oasis Dream, One Cool Cat and Proclamation all 6/4 or shorter in 2003, 2004 and 2005. Sakhee’s Secret is a different proposition being tried and tested in the prevailing conditions but the draw, pace and luck in running are important elements in most sprints.
Update Friday
Today the going was much more Good than Good/Firm judged on times. However it is bound to dry up a fair bit by 3.10 tomorrow.
Sierra Vista is the only natural front runner in the field and therefore may have a big influence on the way this race is run. Fayr Jag, Amadeus Wolf, Advanced and Mutawaajid may press Sierra Vista if she goes too slowly. From stall 11 she could drag the field over to the stand rail making it difficult for Sakhee’s Secret, or lead them up the centre. Whatever Sakhee’s Secret’s 2 draw could be a real problem, as he may have to give away a few lengths whilst getting covered up.
Conditions will be too quick for Marchand D’Or, Asset, Al Qasi, Somnus and Mutawaajid. Apart from Sakhee’s Secret I think Balthazaar’s Gift (if the pace is strong), Red Clubs and Hellvelyn have the best chances. Sierra Vista could sneak into a place if they give her too much rope. She goes well at Haydock and given a two length lead would be hard to catch.
Haydock Sprint Cup’s produce more than their fair share of shocks. You would think for a Group One that the season’s form would have settled down by September and only a few of the top rated had a chance. But before Reverence there were 14/1, 10/1, 12/1 and 25/1 winners. In particular I can remember that Invincible Spirit’s win made no form sense at all. In the circumstances I think that it is worth opposing Sakhee’s.
Update 9am
If Sakhee’s Secret was 3/1 I would be more than happy to back him for plenty. However at the price I would be much more inclined to lay him than back him. The differences in ratings between the top five or six are small. Finding a horse to bet against him is another matter. There are more negatives than positives. I have money riding on Balthazaar’s Gift at 14/1 but I am not convinced that he will get the strong pace he needs. Hellvelyn could produce a minor surprise, particularly if the stand rail turns out to be best. He made up plenty of ground on Borderlescott on the wide outside at Beverley, and can only come on again for the run. However he does need to improve a few pounds. Red Clubs could win a Group One on his day, but probably needs two or three to be unlucky. All things considered the race is best swerved.
No Selection
Sunday 9th September - 3.55 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
After Haydock who is going to believe the going is really Good/Firm? Stalls in the centre and the front runners, Lipocco and Celtic Sultan are drawn on either side. They will race down the centre for sure. With only 11 runners and the stalls in the centre the draw is likely to be of little importance.
A fair spread of ratings. I have Wyatt Earp and Ingleby Arch some way ahead of the average. Three useful 3YOs complicate matters. Partners In Jazz seems to need 7f to be at his very best. Burning Incense has done best on easy ground. Wyatt Earp has a very good record at York - 3 wins 1 place in 6 runs.
Update 11.30 am
Ingleby Arch is a 6f fast ground horse who has had a string of 7f races or 6f on easy ground. Consequently he has fallen to an attractive mark and at last has his conditions. He has been well backed off much higher marks.
Long odds were available on Betfair overnight but the general 20/1 with the bookmakers is beginning to disappear.
Selection - Ingleby Arch @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes, Betfred, Boylesports and Bet Direct)