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The Week Ahead (31st August)
Sun 31st - 4.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.15 Curragh - 5f Group Three - The Flying Five Stakes
- 2.45 Deauville - 6f Group Three - Prix de Meautry
Mon 1st - Blank
Tues 2nd - 4.30 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 3rd - Blank
Thurs 4th - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 5th - 3.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 4.00 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 6th - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Group One - Sprint Cup
- 2.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Sun 7th - Blank
Thursday 4th September - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Soft going and a low draw advantage. The pace should come from Nobilissima, Lucayos and Corridor Creeper, all drawn low.
Tudor Prince’s 2008 form does not look anything special. His handicap mark has fallen to it’s lowest point at 71. Last time he ran a mediocre race at Newmarket in conditions which were too quick. Before that at Haydock he would have disappointed some by finishing last on heavy going behind Balakiref. However that run came only two days after a tough race over 7f at Chepstow where he ran well enough just fading late in 3rd place. His ideal conditions are 6f on give. He is a free running horse who usually ridden in close touch with the leaders. His running style should suit Warwick and he should get a nice lead from Nobilissima or Lucayos.
Selection - Tudor Prince @ 16/1 (Skybet) and 14/1 is available at Ladbrokes.
Update 9.45am - There has been some money for Tudor Prince early with Ladbrokes cutting him to 10/1 and Skybet 9/1. Paddy Power went up first at 14/1 and have successively cut him to 11/1, 10/1 and are now 8/1.
Friday 5th September - 3.50 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Diriculous does not do anything very quickly and you would not think that Lingfield is going to be his best track. His last four wins have come at Southwell and Great Leighs. At Lingfield he may get rather far back and not have time to recover. With a lack of front runners, apart from Methaaly who will only lead modest pace races, he looks a bit vulnerable to me. Who to oppose him with is the question?
Film Maker was a disappointment at Goodwood, then won nicely at Great Leighs. I think that he has a bit to find but is a lightly raced 3YO and may do so. Orpenindeed is going to win off his current mark sooner or later, but not today as he is a non-runner. Methaaly looks too high in the ratings now, unless he can swindle one with an easy lead.
No Selection
Saturday 6th September - 2.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Be Friendly Handicap
This race is similar to the 5f handicap at the big York meeting that was abandoned, with several of the same horses and the possibility of heavy going. The course has been covered for nearly a week and there is precious little to go on regarding the state of the ground and draw advantage. We have been told that the grass has been growing fast in the warmth under the covers and will be long and lush. The track will also have been draining steadily, and should be nowhere near as soft as the rest of the track. Sticky and slow yes, very soft probably not?
Let’s see if the meeting is abandoned first before trying to work out this puzzle.
MEETING ABANDONED
Saturday 6th September - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Group One - Betfred Sprint Cup
The going on Tuesday was described as Soft and further rain is forecast including a hefty belt of rain due to arrive on Friday. No doubt anticipated conditions were the reason for the plunge on Utmost Respect which has seen his price contract from 10/1 to 4/1 favourite over the last week. Whereas Heavy going would greatly improve his chance the current prices look all wrong. His early backers have just received a nasty shock with Haydock announcing that they have splashed out £30,000 on covers for the last 5 furlongs to ensure that the meeting goes ahead. So with the covers now in place the going should be Soft at worst.
Anyway I have Utmost Respect with 5 or 6lb to find with other horses who go very well on Soft ground. The form of the Prix Maurice De Gheest, where he finished ahead of US Ranger, Astronomer Royal and Balthazaar’s Gift, is probably not to be taken too literately. Even so, Utmost Respect has a lot to find with African Rose who has been supplemented for the Sprint Cup at a cost of £17,500. Utmost Respect was stuck behind horses as African Rose burst to the front, but he did not make up much ground on the filly late on. The 1/2 furlong shorter trip should suit African Rose best, and the speed she showed on Soft ground bodes well. I really liked the way she went to the front, and she was only worn down by Marchand D’Or late on. Criquette Head is a top trainer and has had plenty of success bringing horses, especially 3YO fillies, over to England for Group One races, so the supplementing of African Rose is a significant move.
Thanks to the covers we have a false favourite and there must be some Ante-Post value to be had with African Rose.
Selection - African Rose 2 pts @ 7/1 (VC Bet, SportingBet)
MEETING ABANDONED
The Week Ahead (7th September)
An already bumper Saturday for sprints on the 13th has been made rather special by inclusion of the abandoned Sprint Cup at Doncaster. With the dodgy weather and soft ground there should be potential for making profits.
Sun 7th - Blank
Mon 8th - 3.50 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 9th - 4.20 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Wed 10th - 2.35 Doncaster - 5f Listed - Scarborough Stakes
- 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.55 Warwick - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 11th - 4.50 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 2.55 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 12th - 2.50 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 13th - 2.35 Doncaster - 6f Group One - Sprint Cup (moved from Haydock)
- 2.05 Doncaster - 5.6f Heritage Handicap - Portland Handicap
- 3.30 Chester - 6f Fillies Listed - Henry Gee Stakes
- 4.40 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.25 Goodwood - 6f Listed - Starlit Stakes
- 3.15 Great Leighs - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 4.10 Curragh - 6f Group Three - Renaissance Stakes
Sun 14th - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.25 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Monday 8th September - 3.50 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going is described as Heavy, Soft in places. In this ground there will probably be no draw advantage. The most likely front runners are Cape Royal, Equuleus Pictor and Woodcote. Fast front runners all. So although they may be wary of going too fast in the ground a strongish pace is almost assured.
Not many sprinters handle heavy ground well. In this race only Irish Pearl and Cape Royal have proved their effectiveness on it. Equuleus Pictor will probably handle very soft ground, though he has yet to prove it. Regal Royale has not raced on soft going at all. The Tatling is definitely inconvenienced by it. I would have doubts about The Jobber, Zowington and Woodcote, who have all run well enough with some give but have all shown signs that soft going is unlikely to be ideal.
In the circumstances only Irish Pearl and Cape Royal would interest me, though Equuleus Pictor is a major danger.
Irish Pearl travels very well in her races on soft ground and has been giving signs that 5f on very soft will be her optimum. Fergus Sweeney rode her for her Windsor win and at Leicester where she went nicely just behind Inxile until Quiet Elegance wore them both down. So Sweeney riding is a positive. She did not have a lot of room in her last race at Beverley and seemed to travel well again most of the way. I am expecting her to run her best race yet, but the question is, will that be good enough?
Cape Royal will be avoided by most people because of the awful form of Milton Bradley’s stable, the signs of deteriorating form, and the impression that comes across of a front runner who invariably does not get home. He has been second 15 times and first only 7 times, in a 95 race career. The thing that gives hope is the fact that he appears to relish very soft going and some of his best races have been run on it, including a race on heavy at Haydock where he showed extraordinary early speed. He won a weak race from a good draw at Nottingham on 31st July off a 2lb lower mark.
On balance I shall go for the 3YO, with a saver on Cape Royal at Ladbroke’s generous odds of 20/1.
Selection - Irish Pearl @ 13/2 (William Hill, Coral, Skybet, Betfred etc)
Update 3pm - Unfortunately the going on the straight track seems to be less soft than anticipated judged on the times of the first two races. More Good/Soft than Heavy. This could let the others back into it. The chances are that they will all race near the stand rail, though there is an outside chance that Cape Royal could try to race alone and go to the far rail?
Tuesday 9th September - 4.20 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
It must be touch and go whether this meeting goes ahead. In any case heavy ground looks a certainty.
With only four runners it’s unlikely that there will be much value going, but there is a chance. There is a doubt about Mango Music on the ground. She handles Good/Soft but has not done as well on Soft so far.
Update 2pm - There was just a chance that Biniou would drift out to 5/2 or something worth taking, due to his poor British form. Unfortunately that is now unlikely to happen. His form suggests to me that he needs easy ground and is most effective on very soft. A stiff 5f is ideal so at long last he has perfect conditions today. The fact that it has taken nearly two full seasons to find him a 5f race on soft ground does not say much for his connections. At least they should have discussed the dangers of allowing Angus Newz an easy lead, and have a plan to stop that happening, but I wouldn’t bet on it. Well not at current prices anyway.
No Selection
Wednesday 10th September - 2.35 Doncaster - 5f Listed - Scarborough Stakes
In the straight the going is Good/Soft with several Soft stretches, according to a 4pm Turftrax report. It looks like they had a further sharp shower or two after that. The track drains quickly but the going should be Good/Soft or softer tomorrow.
On paper this does not appear to be a very competitve Listed race. Some are not good enough on all known form - Hypnosis, Turn On The Style and Biniou (ran very poorly at Leicester today). The going will be too soft for Desert Lord and Loch Verdi, and will probably take the edge off Moorhouse Lad and Benbaun also. Quick and admirable as Princess Ellis is, her current limitations were exposed by Ishetoo at Musselburgh, and she looks to have a few pounds to find.
This leaves Galeota, and (a somewhat below his best) Benbaun, as the most likely winners.
Selection - Galeota @ 7/2 (Bet365, Betfred, William Hill)
Wednesday 10th September - 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Probably Good/Soft going and no draw advantage. There seems to be pace across the track, though no very quick front runners.
This is a very open competitive race. However a selection is likely. The short list overnight is - Lord Of The Reins, Judge N Jury, Haajes, Malapropism, Blazing Heights, Fantasy Explorer and Invincible Lad. Haajes and Fantasy Explorer could probably do without further rain.
Update - Some more rain yesterday evening and the straight is predominantly Soft according to Turftrax. 6.0 on the Going Stick.
Not that many in the field are both well handicapped and fully effective on soft going. Those that probably go best on soft include Judge N Jury, Captain Dunne, Northern Bolt and Grudge, but there are a few others who act on it.
Blazing Heights takes the eye. He is well handicapped. Running off 71 today, he won off 79 back in November. Whilst his form this season has been at a lower level there have been signs lately of a revival. The booking of Kelly Harrison looks perfect for him. He seems to benefit from a quiet patient ride. He goes well on soft ground.
Selection - Blazing Heights @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Sportingbet)
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Thursday 11th September - 4.50 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
On Wednesday the going was Soft but Doncaster drains quickly so Good/Soft might be expected late afternoon Thursday if no rain falls. There was probably no draw bias early, but the jockeys showed an inclination to come close to the stand rail. The opened up ground will dry quickest, until there is more rain and then eventually it will be the slowest ground. A medium belt of rain is forecast to hit the track at around 7am-10am.
With 22 runners the chances are quite high that they will split into two or more groups. The best pace looks to be drawn low. The most likely front runners are Earlsmedic (1), Atlantic Story (10) and Swift Princess (7). Other possibilities are Joseph Henry (2), Northern Dare (21), El Dececy (8), Not My Choice (4), Mr Hardy (13) and Great Charm (15). If they split into two groups - stand rail and middle/far side my money would be on the far side group.
Update 10am - According to the Turftrax website the 6f straight is now half Soft / half Good/Soft. They are supposed to be getting just 2mm of drizzle, which should keep the ground as it is.
Preference is for a proven soft ground horse drawn somewhere near Earlsmedic (1) or Atlantic Story (10) who I believe are the most likely front runners. The favourite Main Aim has only had three races, all over 7f on Good/Firm ground. Coming from the Stoute stable the assumption is that he will probably handle the conditions, but a lot of people lose a lot of money assuming things like that. His draw in 16 is also unlikely to be a help unless Northern Dare goes off fast. Earlsmedic is another one who has not proved his effectiveness on soft going yet.
So with the two favourites both unproven on the ground this is a race to be interested in, from a betting point of view.
The short list includes Northern Dare, Joseph Henry, Great Charm, Swift Princess, Gift Horse and Mister Hardy. Also Stevie Gee would have a fair chance but he has blinkers on for the first time. From the 22 stall he could conceivably make all down the stand rail if the blinkers work. Who knows?
Of that short list I like Swift Princess best. She has been knocking on the door and goes very well on soft going. She went to the front looking the likely winner at York before tiring inside the final furlong in very soft ground in the race won by Zomerlust. Last time she finished well clear of the stand side group at Ripon, in the race won far side by Bel Cantor. Now conditions seem perfect for her and she has a draw near the probable front runners too.
Selection - Swift Princess @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Betfred, Bet365, Betinternet.com etc)
Friday 12th September - 2.50 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
In the two sprints on Thursday’s card they tended to avoid the far rail and came more towards the centre. The going was bordering on Heavy at roughly 1sec per furlong slow. So it will be a testing 5f tomorrow with probably no clear draw advantage. However the best pace is drawn low - Blessed Place (3), Cape Royal (4) and Corridor Creeper (5) and horses drawn high near the far rail could find themselves rather out of it.
Depending on the early prices there could be a selection.
Update - Glasshoughton has his ideal conditions, an uphill 5f on soft ground, and is 1lb below his last winning mark. He has been trying 6f and as anticipated has proved not to be as good over the longer trip. Even so the last two runs have been below par so there is a chance he will not be at his best today. Which is the reason for not taking a short price. The RP forecast 13/2 was never likely to be available, but the early 4/1 was too short thanks to the Betfair nibblers. There are signs of a drift to a more acceptable price. There is not enough interest in backing the opposition to push the price out very far, but 5/1 would be OK if it appears.
Selection - Glasshoughton @ 5/1 or better
Saturday 13th September - 2.35 Doncaster - 6f Group One - Sprint Cup (moved from Haydock)
The going will be Good/Soft if the weather forecast is reasonably accurate. The draw not particularly significant assuming a small amount of rain only. On Thursday they came down the centre with the centre/stand side looking slightly better than further towards the far side. The pace should be average, the most likely front runners being Equiano (if not held up to get the trip), Assertive (visor), Ancien Regime and Reverence. It would not surprise me to see US Ranger pressing the pace, rowed along from the stalls by Murtagh, as he was in the July Cup.
The betting market has more or less matured over the past two weeks. I expect to see Utmost Respect drift if as expected the going dries out to Good/Soft. US Ranger seems to have plenty of long suffering but faithful supporters and his current odds of 8/1 will probably shorten. African Rose still looks the most likely winner to me. Her odds of 9/2 (William Hill) are a lot less attractive than the 7/1 of two weeks ago. Nevertheless I think they represent better value than the others at the top of the market, and I expect those odds to shorten.
The race does not look particularly strong for a 6f Group One. On his best form Balthazaar’s Gift would be right in the shake up. Last year he was third to Red Clubs and Marchand d’Or having stumbled and lost more ground at the start than he was beaten by. On my ratings he comes out top, just. All of his five wins have come on Good/Soft. I believe that Cumani has had this as the main target all year, so it is significant that a visor is fitted now, for the first time, after cheekpieces last time out. If a strong pace could be guaranteed Balthazaar’s Gift would be an excellent each-way bet at the current 16/1. Going and pace are the keys with him.
Selections - African Rose @ 9/2 (William Hill, 4/1 generally)
Balthazaar’s Gift @ 16/1 (Betdirect, Stan James, Totesport)
Saturday 13th September - 3.30 Chester - 6f Fillies Listed - Henry Gee Stakes
The going is Good/Soft (Soft places) and the false rail is in place. In the circumstances the low draw advantage is not quite so important. There should be enough pace here to ensure a good test at the distance. Coconut Moon (blinkers 1st time) is a front runner who goes very well at Chester and Angus Newz will want to lead from stall 1, so will be bustled up early to secure her position.
Look Busy is a thoroughly admirable racehorse and by some way the best of these. She is perfectly drawn in 2 to track Angus Newz. She handles soft ground well. She has won at Chester. All facts which lead her to be a warm favourite at around Evens.
However her best form has all been at 5f so far. She was poorly drawn on her last try at 6f at Chester. Although she kept on well enough she did not get into the race at any stage. More interesting was her run at York over 6f on Heavy. There she clearly did not stay having been prominent for 5f.
Finishing alongside her that day was Manzila, who was giving 6lb. Today there is a 9lb turnaround in the weights. Manzila has been almost the opposite of Look Busy this year. Her Thirsk handicap win in May looked to be superb form at the time, but she has been thoroughly disappointing since and it is quite difficult to work out how good she is. You really need to look back over her French form to get a handle on her ability. Based on this I think that she has about 5lb to find on Look Busy’s best form at today’s weights. The thing that stands out with Manzila is that she requires give in the ground to show her form. She stays 6f well if it is not too testing. So today’s conditions should be near ideal. Silvestre gets the best out of her and she is well drawn in 3.
At 5f Look Busy could not be opposed. At 6f there is every chance that Manzila will be slugging it out with Look Busy at the end.
On paper Angus Newz, given an easy lead, or Gentle Guru look to be the main threats.
Selection - Manzila @ 13/2 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 13th September - 3.25 Goodwood - 6f Listed - Starlit Stakes
Soft going.
Asset is a short price despite a year layoff and conditions not being ideal. He is a magnificent looking horse, and his Golden Jubilee run behind Soldier’s Tale and Takeover Target was superb, but he showed last year that an ordinary paced 6f is on the sharp side, and that a sound surface is best. On ratings he should win but he looks Bismark material to me.
Lesson In Humility has shown her best form on a sound surface so far. Crimson Fern has shown her form at 5f, though she has seen out the 5f well on stiff tracks, giving some hope that she may be as good at 6f.
Sonny Red is the other one with a form chance. He prefers give in the ground (all three wins on Soft) and if on his best form would be near enough favourite here. However, as with most soft ground horses, his form has dropped off as the Summer has worn on. He did win over an inadequate 5f at Nottingham in the Spring, ran a close up 4th in the Abernant on Good going with some cut, but was stuck in a pocket at Windsor on the only other occasion he had give in the ground. Now is his chance with conditions ideal.
Selection - Sonny Red @ 4/1 (Betfred) and 7/2 generally.
Saturday 13th September - 2.05 Doncaster - 5.6f Heritage Handicap - Portland Handicap
Selection - Fullandby @ 12/1 (VC Bet, Bet365)
The Portland is run over 5f 140yds. Not 5f. Not 6f. Not 5 and a half furlongs.
You would think those 140 yards wouldn’t make much difference, but the records suggest that they do.
Looking at winners in the last ten years you find that their career records (minus the Portland) show 31 wins at 5f, 34 wins at 6f and 3 wins at 7f.
Only one (Compton Banker) won the Portland without winning a 6f race first. Only one winner was a front runner (Smokin Beau).
Halmahera won three times, and earlier back in the 90s Hello Mister won twice.
So it is a race for a particular type of horse. A horse that stays 6f well, but is very effective at 5f. Most chase the pace in mid div or are held up. 5f front runners don’t stay. 6f front runners have to expend a lot of energy against the 5f horses getting to the front and staying there, and usually fade.
IF this turns out to be correct again this year then several of the horses at the top of the market are unlikely winners i.e. Cheveton (5f horse?), Tamagin (front runner, not won at 5f), Strike Up The Band (front runner), Oldjoesaid (5f horse?),
Chief Editor (5f horse?), Lipocco (front runner).
These are just the sort of horses I used to back in the Portland. After nearly twenty years and only a Lochsong win to show for it I like to think that Halmahera finally taught me something about the Portland, but it took three goes to sink in.
Fullandby is equally at home over 5f and 6f, is a chaser and has those special ingredients which make a Portland winner. He may be a little high in the handicap but should be in the mix on his Ayr form.
Sunday 14th September - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going is Soft. In this size of field there is probably no draw advantage. Lesson In Humility won from the front down the rail yesterday.
Osiris Way is a solid favourite, but it is not a race to be taking 7/2. He has yet to prove fully effective on Soft, although Good/Soft is clearly no problem at all and his breeding suggests Soft will be fine. There are some useful 3YOs in the race, particularly Baldemar and Perfect Flight, who are suited by conditions. Masai Moon will probably find things happening a bit too quickly. Sundae is becoming a bit of a puzzle after a very successful 3YO campaign.
It has taken two years for King’s Caprice to come down the handicap to a point where he has good chances of a win. His high handicap mark was based on career best runs at the back end of the season with the benefit of a 5lb claim. Circumstances which often result in horses going much too high in the handicap. At last there are signs that he is getting competitive and his mark is now down to 85 from a high of 104. He was third at Newmarket off a mark of 88, a bit one paced on fast going over 6f. He then led a 7f race by five lengths with 3f to go at Newbury. Whilst he paid for going too fast it was more like the old King’s Caprice. Now back with a jockey who knows him well he should be able to go a sensible pace in front and could be hard to catch on this ground. There are a number of assumptions built in there, but at 8/1 price he is good value.
Selection - King’s Caprice @ 8/1 (William Hill, Stan James, Betdirect - all best odds guaranteed)
The Week Ahead (14th September)
Sun 14th - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.25 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Mon 15th - 4.00 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 16th - 3.30 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Classified Stakes (0-90) - Something
- 4.00 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.10 Yarmouth - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 4.40 Yarmouth - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 17th - Blank
Thurs 18th - 4.00 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Fri 19th - 2.55 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.40 Ayr - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Ayr Silver Cup
Sat 20th - 3.30 Ayr - 6f Heritage Handicap - Ayr Gold Cup
- 3.45 Newbury - 5f Group Three - Dubai Duty Free World Trophy
- 2.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 21st - 4.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Tuesday 16th September - 4.40 Yarmouth - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The course has been drying out and the going is now described as Good. They usually come down the centre these days though in days gone by the stand rail was usually the place to be.
Most of these are in good form and it seems to be a competitive race. Two look a little ahead of the others on my ratings. Firstly Bahamian Ballet who has been a little in and out and too high in the handicap. He is now down to 77 which is the mark he was on when an unlucky 2nd at Salisbury. He seems to benefit from a break so the 6 weeks off is probably a bonus following a below par run.
However the one I like best is Even Bolder. Some take the view that his 3 length+ Sandown win was a muddling rather weak race, but the computer rates it well both in terms of form and time. It certainly looked good with Even Bolder clearly the best horse in the race travelling well. I liked his keen attitude. Sprinters showing that sort of “aggression” are ones to follow. It was no surprise following excellent runs in competitive races at Goodwood and Newmarket. He has gone up 7lb in the weights but I take the view that he was value for more. The bookies also have a difference of opinion about it with most going 11/2 or 6/1 Even Bolder but Ladbrokes have him 4/1 co-favourite.
Selection - Even Bolder @ 13/2 (Sportingbet)
Tuesday 16th September - 4.10 Yarmouth - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
A truly nasty little race from my point of view. If I was forced to have a bet it would be on the assumption that the horses at the top of the market would fail and Mango Music @ 11/1 (Skybet) would pick up the pieces.
No Selection
Friday 19th September - 4.40 Ayr - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Ayr Silver Cup
The straight track appears to be much quicker than the round track. Soft at worst whereas the round track is very Heavy. The stand rail also looked the quickest part of the course, though that can change if more rain falls on the opened up ground, and there should be plenty of rain falling now (10pm).
In any case the distribution of early pace could confuse any draw bias in the Silver Cup. Only Bel Cantor (3) and Methaaly (2) are regular front runners. There are a number of others who from time to time front run or race prominently. These include Mister Hardy (5), Northern Dare (9) who led last year’s race, Thebes (12), Luscivious (13), He’s A Humbug (22) and Joseph Henry (25).
I considered backing Joseph Henry, to control the favoured stand rail and outstay them. But looking again at the Doncaster race won by Main Aim, wherever Joseph Henry finishes Gift Horse should finish ahead of him. The jockey booking, Lance Betts, is an odd one for Dandy. Adrian is on Northern Dare and Silvestre is on Joseph Henry. Neil Brown rode Gift Horse at Doncaster using kidglove tactics to good effect. Betts has a record of 0-4 for Dandy in the last five seasons, so no encouragement there. Whether the booking is the idea of the owners, who include Henry Rix and Rob Wright, I would not know.
Mullein is the improving 3YO. Every good sprint should have one. She has a nice draw near the stand rail, but nobody knows whether she will be effective on very soft going, and the going at 6f may be too testing for her. She clearly handles Good/Soft well and as a lightly raced late foal you would expect her to still be improving. She is a half-sister to Illustrous Blue and Romany Nights by Oasis Dream which gives no real encouragement for thinking that very soft will suit. The experience of a big field sprint will be new to her, and most of the field will be heading her way out of the stalls. If she can win in these circumstances then she is surely one to follow for next year.
Others on the short list are - Kaldoun Kingdom, Bel Cantor, Northern Dare, Burning Incense, Harrison George, and Cha Cha Cha.
However Gift Horse only has to repeat his last run to be very hard to beat, and he has always gone best on easy ground. Add to this Dandy’s record in the Silver Cup and he is difficult to ignore. I remember Blackheath on the stand rail losing out by a neck to Native Title on the far side, a Dandy one-two. He aims his horses at this meeting and they are usually 100%.
Selection - Gift Horse @ 10/1 (Coral and Ladbrokes)
Update - 4mm of rain overnight followed by drizzle.
Friday 19th September - 2.55 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Soft going and a likely high draw advantage.
A few that are not likely to be suited by 5f or soft conditions. Ice Planet, John Keats and High Curragh are 6f horses.
It remains to be seen whether Dandy can get Prince Namid back to former levels of performance. He usually gets to grips with horses from other yards gradually and Prince Namid will be an exception if he scores early in the process. There seems to be optimism that a five length third at Beverley showed he will soon be back on the winning trail and he is early favourite. Too short a price imo.
Highland Warrior is on a roll. I liked the way he went clear a furlong out at Beverley, albeit he had a nice position against the far rail and a gap opened when he needed it. 5f on soft ground is perfect. He has three wins at Ayr. Draw 13 is ideal though he will need luck to get a run.
Therein lies the problem with the race. There are no natural 5f front runners and the pace could be muddling. With them all expected to be crowding onto the stand rail, positioning and luck in running will be everything. In the circumstances backing Highland Warrior at 6/1 does not look so attractive.
Looking at the prices available I do not understand why The Nifty Fox is 33/1 (Ladbrokes). He won off this mark over course and distance last year. He is in good form going down by only a head at Hamilton on August 29th. He ran a perfectly good race on heavy going at Chester. Whilst not top of my ratings I have him only 2lb behind Highland Warrior and his handy run style may be just what is needed here. However it looks like he is a non-runner, so that cunning plan is out.
No Selection
Saturday 20th September - 3.45 Newbury - 5f Group Three - Dubai Duty Free World Trophy
The course is steadily drying out and it should be on the fast side of Good by tomorrow afternoon. There is no draw advantage to speak of. The front runners are Day By Day (1) and Loch Verdi (10), with a number of others who often race front rank including Reverence, Judd Street, Turn On The Style, Misaro and Moorhouse Lad. There should be a strongish pace.
From a ratings point of view there is not much between several of these but my short list is Look Busy, Rowe Park and Moorhouse Lad. Galeota and Fullandby are better with a stiffer test. Enticing is suited by very fast/sharp conditions. Green Manalishi goes very well at Newbury but has a few pounds to find. Tom’s Laughter also has a bit to find and his apprentice cannot claim. Reverence needs give. Wi Dud still is not in his best form.
Moorhouse Lad will probably win soon. He certainly would have gone close at Doncaster with better fortune and that was on ground softer than ideal. Look Busy is tough and consistent. Her apprentice cannot claim but she should go close again. However my preference is for last year’s winner Rowe Park. Stuck with a Group penalty for much of the season was always going to be difficult. So it is no surprise that he has taken several runs to get back to something like his best. At Sandown behind Ancien Regime he was short of room at a critical point of the race but finished quite well for a promising effort. At Goodwood the blindfold was taken off late and he stumbled losing a length out of the stall. He was then tracking the stand side runners as the race unfolded towards the far side. When he got out he finished strongly suggesting that he is as good as ever. The last run behind Peace Offering at Nottingham confirmed, as expected, that he is not as good on soft going. Now back on a faster surface he should be back to his form of a year ago. If so he should have every chance, and at the price available is an excellent value bet.
Selection - Rowe Park 2 pts @ 18/1 (Skybet, 16/1 generally)
Saturday 20th September - 3.30 Ayr - 6f Heritage Handicap - Ayr Gold Cup
In 2006 Advanced was beaten one length into third place behind Fonthill Road off a handicap mark of 104. In 2007 he achieved an awesome performance, winning from a handicap mark of 109. On Saturday he is due to race off 104 again for his first handicap since last year’s AGC. His best performances have been on Good/Soft or Soft going and the going on Saturday will be Soft or Heavy. He stays 7f well if as expected the conditions are testing putting the emphasis on stamina.
Advanced seems to be at his best in big field handicaps and on AGC day especially, and there is no reason to think he will not be again. He looks to be in at least as good form as this time last year chasing home Look Busy over an inadequate 5f at Beverley in his last race. He is still only a 5YO.
Two of the main Ante-Post unknowns, draw and going, are not likely to be a problem this time. The Ayr straight will be so chewed up that the horses will be looking for fresh ground and hypothetical preferences for a high or low draw will probably become irrelevant. To me he seems to be the most likely winner again and I expect his price to contract further, hence the decision not to wait until the draw to have a bet.
Ante-Post Selection - Advanced @ 11/1 (Corals)
The Week Ahead (21st September)
Sun 21st - 4.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Mon 22nd - 3.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 5.10 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.20 Leicester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.30 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Tues 23rd - 2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Wed 24th - 4.20 Goodwood - 10f Listed - Foundation Stakes - Pinpoint
- 3.10 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 25th - Blank
Fri 26th - 2.45 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 27th - 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.00 Chester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.20 Great Leighs - 6f Class 2 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Sun 28th - 3.15 Ascot - 6f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
- 1.55 Curragh - 6f Listed
Monday 22nd September - 3.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Soft ground.
Swift Princess and Linda Green are well suited by conditions and have been running well in competitive handicaps. So back in a Fillies Handicap on soft going you would think they would have a fair chance. Artistic Licence is probably no threat as she has been best on a sound surface or Polytrack, and needs a strong pace, which she is not likely to get. However Prescription is a real Mark Prescott special. Apart from the performance, she looked two classes bigger and stronger than the others in the Lingfield race, and being a late foal by Pivotal on only her fourth run there is going to be masses of improvement. The only ways I can see her getting beaten is if Swift Princess gets loose on an easy lead, or something goes seriously wrong. Prescription will be odds on.
No Selection
Monday 22nd September - 3.20 Leicester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Going apparently on the fast side of Good. The draw is not very significant.
This race has plenty of pace. Ocean Blaze (11), Equuleus Pictor (2) and Cape Royal (1) are the most likely front runners and there are some pressers also with Woodcote (10), Best One (7), Blue Eyed Miss (5) and Rasaman (4). Drawn on the outside Ocean Blaze probably has no alternative but to go from the stalls. Likewise Cape Royal who is drawn on the stand rail and could get cut off if they stay stand side and he gets a slow start.
So lots of pace and the chasers/hold-up horses should come to the fore in the final furlong. The Jobber, Tony The Tap and Gallery Girl meet that description. Tony The Tap often looks well handicapped but is a difficult horse to win with, as his one win from the last 41 accurately reflects. A strong pace, uphill track and Hayley Turner may be what he needs, but a place is much more likely than a win. Similar comments apply to Gallery Girl.
The Jobber looked to have little in hand when winning at Yarmouth. He is 4lb higher at 87 today and that may put a lot of people off. However the modest early pace will not have helped him. Unless he has regressed quite a lot since last year, when he reached a high of 100, he is still well handicapped. He won this race off 95 in 2006. The race should be run to suit, so he is worth a chance
Selection - The Jobber @ 6/1 plus (Course)
Tuesday 23rd September - 2.30 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Good/Soft (Soft places). High draw best, even with this amount of give.
Plenty of early pace here with Strike Up The Band, Day By Day and Tabaret. Even Fire Up The Band may be in it for a while.
It will be interesting to see if Day By Day takes part. She was a non-runner at Newbury, supposedly because the ground was too soft, even though it was no slower than Good. Daft. I needed her to give Rowe Park a good lead in that race. If she drops out then Strike Up The Band could get clear for a while, but it won’t be an easy lead.
Fullandby seems to have gone right off his game. It will probably be a bit soft for Hoh Mike. Manzila really did not make much of a fight of it at Chester. Her Thirsk win is beginning to look just a fluke, with nothing to back it up.
So it looks like this one may fall into the lap of Oldjoesaid, who ran a good Portland and should be well suited by the Beverley hill. Some of his best efforts have been on ground like this. With the pace likely to stretch them out early, stall 3 should be no great problem. Unfortunately he is likely to stay too short in the betting at around 5/2.
Update - Oops Hoh Mike is out so the odds will be even shorter.
No Selection
Friday 26th September - 2.45 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Not a race for me to be interested in. The favourite has only raced twice, both times over 7f. The second favourite’s market position is based on hard to assess Condition’s Stakes form. Eleven of the eighteen have not run in the last month, and good recent form is thin on the ground. Far too many questions and not a lot of answers.
No Selection.
Saturday 27th September - 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Going on the fast side of Good. On Friday they were avoiding the centre of the track where there was ground under repair. In most of the races they split into two groups. There looked to be a small advantage to running down the far rail, i.e. for those drawn low.
If they split into two groups in this race there is pace both sides with Lipocco (5), Bel Cantor (12) and Misaro (14) the most likely front runners. Mac Gille Eoin (6), Everymanforhimself (10), and Joseph Henry (13) will probably be prominent also.
Musaalem is a horse to be interested in. He has won three of his four races, and hopefully is still on an upward curve. He has a nice draw on the far side next to Lipocco, who all being well should take the field along. The price is not great but probably value.
Selection - Musaalem @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes, William Hill, Skybet etc)
Saturday 27th September - 3.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The 3.00 should give a good clue as to whether the suspected draw advantage is there.
Perhaps the front running duties are not as clear cut in this race as in most sprints. Invincible Force (10) usually front runs but Spencer rides and he has an inconvenient centre draw too. Secret Asset (4) tried to make all at Great Leighs last time out. Fol Hollow (16) usually goes from the gates. Northern Empire (15), Judd Street (1) and Tom’s Laughter (6) are others likely to be front rank or handy.
This is a race where several runners have strong claims. Cheveton back to 5f can continue his relentless progress. Fantasy Explorer finally produced what everyone knew he had at Newmarket, but over 6f, and was impressive. He now has a 7lb claimer aboard. Judd Street seems to be slowly coming back to his best after falling 11lb in the handicap since the start of the season. Royalist is the lightly raced 3YO, every race should have one, who is dropping back from 7f to 5f in one go. He is well regarded and has been pulling hard at the longer distance. It is anyone’s guess as to whether 5f is what he really needs.
But the one I like is Tom’s Laughter. Still progressing with his close Group 3 third at Newbury last Saturday. His apprentice can now claim again so effectively that is a 3lb bonus. He is ideally suited by fast ground. He finishes his races strongly. Lastly he should get a good lead on the, hopefully, favoured far side from Secret Asset and Judd Street.
Selection - Tom’s Laughter @ 7/1 (William Hill, Skybet)
Saturday 27th September - 5.00 Chester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The reported going is Good/Firm, Good in places. Important to get close to the rail so a low draw can be a big advantage particularly as there is no false rail.
On first and second look a difficult race to get to grips with. The best pace is drawn wide, Earls Medic (12) and My Gacho (13). It is possible that Methaaly will get in front and be able to dominate because of his (1) draw. However I think a messy fight for the lead is more likely with Not My Choice (4), Pacific Pride (3), and one or two others getting involved.
The favourites do not do much for me. Wyatt Earp does not strike me as a Chester horse. His running style seems to rely on a long smooth run from off the pace. He’ll be lucky, and at 9/2 he is poor value despite the good draw. Methaaly looks badly handicapped now. He is best front running but to my eyes he does not have the speed to hold his position in a Chester sprint. Not My Choice has made all at Chester and has a two from four record there. Francis Norton is aboard so the plan will be to get to the front and stay there, but Not My Choice is an unreliable starter, who is quite likely to mess it up. He is also not well handicapped still 6lb above his last winning mark. Of the other low draws Pacific Pride is a difficult horse to figure. He is back on his last winning mark and can show good speed in his races, but he does not run two races the same. The one clear trend in his form is that he is best fresh. He has had a break of seven weeks since his last run but perhaps it would be better to look out for him next May. Makshoof could go well but seems to save his best for Haydock.
River Thames is regarded by some as a bit of a monkey. He is a bridle horse who just stays on one pace. He needs a fast pace race and the front runners stopping in front of him. Given that situation he is a consistent horse and currently well handicapped. Last year at this meeting he just arrived too late beaten a neck in a 5f race, from a 4lb higher mark. 6f suits him better. He should be able to drop onto the rail here, somewhere towards the rear. If the pace is strong, and the chances are that it will be, he can burrow his way up the rail from 2f out and arrive to pick up the pieces. Well that is the theory anyway.
Selection - River Thames @ 14/1 (Stan James, Betdirect)
Saturday 27th September - 8.20 Great Leighs - 6f Class 2 All Weather Conditions Stakes
A low draw is very helpful at Great Leighs.
The race does not have a lot of pace in it. Whilst Galeota and Tabaret can front run they are unlikely to set a strong pace, and I do not see anything that is likely to press them too hard. So if this turns out to be true the winner will probably come from on or close to the pace.
I expect Asset to run a better race. He was never as good on soft going as a sounder surface so his last run can be forgotten. However he would not be suited by a modest paced 6f on a comparatively sharp track. Damika is a grinder who needs a stiff test also. Ceremonial Jade and Bonus are good All Weather horses. Of the two Ceremonial Jade has the better draw, the better “kick”, and at 5YO is still improving, whereas Bonus is an 8YO and not.
Selection - Celemonial Jade @ 9/2 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday 28th September - 3.15 Ascot - 6f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
Overwatering caused the top surface to be loose on Saturday. That will probably dry out tomorrow, though not ideal for the fast ground horses. There appears to have been a minor high draw advantage over the first two days.
An open Diadem with the favourite probably too short. Selection probable.
Update - This seems to be an open race. If I had a short list it would be a long one. Even the likes of Balthazaar’s Gift and Dark Missile who both have a good record at Ascot cannot be dismissed. Then there is Lesson In Humility who would be dangerous if she got a soft lead from her high draw. Diabolical, Assertive, Intrepid Jack, King’s Apostle (visor 1st) and Prime Defender all have a chance on ratings. Sir Gerry has a good chance if he is the same form as Golden Jubilee day, or has improved since.
The early pace will probably not be that strong. Lesson In Humility is the only habitual front runner. Edge Closer and Dark Missile tend to lie handy and usually will try to go to the front around 2f out. Advanced, Diabolical and Assertive will also be in touch possibly tracking the leaders. Perhaps not a day to be held up at the back in the style of Zidane, Sir Gerry or Balthazaar’s Gift?
For this reason my choice is Edge Closer. He has tactical speed, as he showed to good effect when beating Ceremonial Jade at Kempton and Borderlescott at Salisbury. His last win, with the aid of the tongue strap, was perhaps the best. His sire Bold Edge was an admirable front running sprinter who raced in the same colours and improved through his 4YO career to win this race in 1999.
Selection - Edge Closer @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes, Betfred)