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The Week Ahead (30th September)
Sun 30th - 4.20 Ascot - 6f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
Mon 1st - Blank
Tues 2nd - 4.20 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Wed 3rd - 4.30 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 4th - 4.20 Newmarket - 5f Listed
- 4.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Fri 5th - Blank
Sat 6th - Pinpoint - 3.55 Newmarket - 9f Heritage Handicap - Cambridgeshire
- 3.10 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
Sun 7th - Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
Tuesday 2nd October - 4.20 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Matsunosuke is untried on Polytrack and Tamagin may not get to the front in a race in which there are some very fast 5f sprinters. I would not be too interested in the others but the favourites are short enough in the betting.
No Selection.
Wednesday 3rd October - 4.30 Salisbury - 6f Class 4 Handicap
A very open looking race with several 3YOs who could improve past the older horses. Plenty of pace - Bel Cantor, Mujood, Idle Power, China Cherub, Masai Moon, Who’s Winning and possibly Loyal Royal all tend to force or press the pace. Good/Soft going and an uncertain draw advantage particularly on this type of going. Before reaching any firm conclusion it would be advisable to watch the early races to see if there is any draw or pace advantage.
Update
The place to be is on the far rail and horses racing prominently are doing well. So the winner will probably come from the high drawn horses which certainly does not favour the favourite Transcend (drawn 1) or Mujood (2). The highest drawn are Idle Power, China Cherub, Rainbow Mirage, Masai Moon and Compton’s Eleven. It might pay to concentrate on one of these that goes well on easy ground.
Thursday 4th October - 4.20 Newmarket - 5f Listed - Rous Stakes
Good ground. They are using the far side half of the course with the stalls on the stand side of it. This minimises any draw advantage, though if one went across to the far rail they could find a faster strip. Loch Verdi will probably lead, and Bond City, Judd Street, Pivotal’s Princess and Tax Free can be expected to race prominently. The probability is that they will race in one group as Loch Verdi is drawn in the centre.
It looks to be a very open race. Both Judd Street and Tawaassol have first time visors. Judd Street used to be more of a front runner, whereas lately he has mostly chased the pace in touch. Perhaps the visor will make him run more freely again? Tawaasol certainly needs to show more speed to be effective over 5f. You have to respect Stoute’s decision to use the visor but I would not wish to rely on it producing the desired result. Sonny Red is coming down in trip again and whilst he has plenty of speed he does not looking as if he is crying out for a shorter trip.
Tax Free scrambled home at Longchamp last time in a weak Group 3 race. He will have to do better to win this. Rowe Park also carries a Group penalty and has a little to find on ratings with Tax Free and Judd Street. However I like the way that he races immediately tracking the pace, apparently able to stay in touch however fast they go.
Well that will be tested in this race because Loch Verdi has burned them off in her last two races. She has been well backed this morning and her followers will be hoping that she is improving along the lines of her distinguished mother, Lochsong. However my intrepretation of her two wins is that she had the run of the race at Folkestone and the best of the draw at Hamilton and she has a lot to find to beat this standard of field. We shall see. Rowe Park is in the next stall and should be able to get a good lead from her.
Sonny Red and Canadian Danehill are non runners.
Selection - Rowe Park @ 6/1 (Generally) ( no Rule 4)
Thursday 4th October - 4.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Fillies Handicap
A field consisting of 3YOs and 4YOs only. There should be a good pace with Angus Newz trying to dominate in the centre, Mango Music front running on the stand rail, and Diane’s Choice on the far side. Leopoldine and Medicea Sidera have also been known to front run. The lightly raced 3YO Plucky will probably be favourite. All four runs have been at 7f so far but her pedigree is full of speed. Of the others I like Riotous Applause, Special Day, Mango Music and Lady Lily best. Cape needs softer ground.
Update
In view of the likely fast pace I think this one might suit a 6f/7f type and I am prepared to gamble that Plucky will improve on what she achieved in her last race. She travelled well at Goodwood only beaten by a filly who showed a marginally better turn of foot. After only four runs she is entitled to improve further and the drop down in trip is also a good sign. Unfortunately Cape has been withdrawn so the 4/1 on offer is not a great price.
Selection - Plucky @ 4/1 (Betfred, VC, Ladbrokes, Coral)
Saturday 6th October - 3.10 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
There will be a selection around 10am on Saturday.
Update 9.30am
I usually avoid All Weather races, but this one is promising. Beaver Patrol either leads, or if there are front runners in the race, stays close to the pace. There looks to be an absence of natural front runners in this race. So from stall 11 of 12 it seems that Beaver Patrol could get an easy lead, or at worst a perfect position just behind anything keen to get to the front.
On ratings I have Orpsie Boy top, and in a fast pace straight track race on fast going he would be the one to follow. But with a possible modest pace and a moderate draw he is likely to find himself with plenty to do in the final two furlongs.
Border Music is perpetually cursed with ratings which are too high for what he actually achieved in comparatively weak Springtime Listed and Conditions races. His highest winning handicap mark is 95 and he is off 100 today. I have him with something to find here with the likes of Beaver Patrol and Orpsie Boy and if I am correct about the pace that should not be in his favour either. One More Round also needs to come from well back off a fast pace.
The 3YOs have been done no favours with the draw with three of them in stalls 1, 2 and 3. Majuro in 7 ran well here behind Edge Closer but the form does not look quite strong enough.
If I am correct about the pace everything points to Beaver Patrol. At Newbury granted an easy lead he ran them ragged beating Genki comfortably. He has gone on to finish 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup off his current mark. His limited runs on Polytrack suggest that he is fully effective on it.
Selection - Beaver Patrol 2pts @ 4/1 (Ladbrokes and VC)
Sunday 7th October - 1.15 Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
The going is currently described as Soft, but on past experience you cannot assume that it will be Soft on Sunday afternoon, or for that matter that it is now. Longchamp does dry out quite quickly. The weather is forecast to be moderately warm and sunny.
If the going is Good/Soft or slower then the leading fancies - Benbaun, Dandy Man, Desert Lord, possibly even Kingsgate Native - could be inconvenienced. If the going is soft and these horses stand their ground then the betting could get very interesting indeed.
If the going is Good then the disadvantage to the fast ground horses will be a matter of degree requiring some fine judgement/guesswork.
Rewards could be good for getting this one right. It is currently 11/1 bar without the front four in the betting.
Update 12.30pm
The going looks like being Good/Soft on the straight track which will be to the disadvantage of Benbaun, Dandy Man and Desert Lord. This could leave things open for the 2YO Kingsgate Native. However he has not raced on going softer than Good or travelled abroad so there are significant unknowns against his name. If there was proven recent top class form on easy ground amongst the rest of the field then there would be a good bet. The best of the rest is Moss Vale. With Keiron Fallon riding he will have a better chance than the odds suggest, but stall 17 of 17 puts me off. Low draws are almost certainly best.
Not an easy decision but Kingsgate Native has become available on Betfair at 4.3 and to my surprise I am ‘on’ at that price. I expect prices of 3/1+ to become available with the bookies also in a volatile market.
Selection - Kingsgate Native @ 3/1 or better (Betfair)
The Week Ahead (7th October)
Sun 7th - 1.15 Longchamp - 5f Group 1 - Prix L’Abbaye de Longchamp
Mon 8th - Blank
Tues 9th - 4.20 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 10th - Blank
Thurs 11th - Blank
Fri 12th - 3.25 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 4.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Sat 13th - 3.45 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap - PaddyPower Sprint Trophy
- 4.40 Ascot - 5f Class 4 Apprentice Handicap
Sun 14th - 3.45 Bath - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.15 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Tuesday 9th October - 4.20 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
This race is of interest because of the possibility of the draw having a major influence on the result. The old far side bias has reared its head once or twice lately at Folkestone. Before the 4.20 there are no less than five 6f or 7f races. This should sort out the best place to race, at least in theory. So watching those could be the way to a nice profit. Unfortunately that means having to watch ATR on and off for 2 1/2 hours, which is a sure way to lose the will to live without liberal use of the mute button.
Late selection likely.
Update
Rain is falling and the ground is Soft.
Two non runners Sacre Coeur and Millisecond, both were prominent in the betting.
Early indications are that they will probably race down the stand rail.
Makabul handles Soft very well, winning in very soft conditions at Windsor on 30th June.
Some may regard him as a Windsor specialist but he has gone well elsewhere.
The favourite For Life is probably best on fast ground so can be opposed.
Selection - Makabul @ 5/1 (no Rule 4) with VC
The meeting was abandoned just before the 4.20pm after prolonged heavy rain. Which was just as well as six fast ground horses had been withdrawn and as a reult Makabul’s price had collapsed from a good value 5/1 right down to a very poor value 6/4.
Friday 12th October - 3.25 Lingfield - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
I do not see this one going to Matsunosuke, the Racing Post and overnight Betfair favourite. He is in hot form but has shot up the weights from the win off 75 at Sandown to the equivalent of 91 in this race. The Sandown 5f played to his strengths, as did Leicester behind Kay Two and Cape Royal. His win at Wolverhampton was very smooth and visually impressive but Bertoliver set it up for him with an exceptionally fast pace. The prominent horses were stopping fast in the final furlong, making Matsunosuke look good. This race at Lingfield should be one for the front and in-touch runners as the Lingfield 5f is very sharp and there are no out and out 5f speedsters in the race. Ironically Bertoliver is in the 6f race which follows.
Texas Gold is the obvious alternative. He has a superb course and distance record, and the recent run at Folkestone behind Loch Verdi suggests he is in sufficiently good form to strike off this low handicap mark with everything in his favour. He leapt off the page and I was expecting a reasonable price too, but unfortunately the Racing Post have tipped him and put him in at 4/1 on their tissue. Boooo.
I have been waiting for Texas Gold to go to 4/1 as Matsunosuke is well backed, but it hasn’t happened yet. On Betfair Texas Gold has also come in for plenty of support. It is a two horse book with 75% of the money matched on one or the other. However it is not a two horse race and there may be more value to be had on the Betfair place market. Safari Mischief is one horse with a much better chance than his odds suggest.
No Selection
Post Mortem
They went too fast including Texas Gold who was pushed along from the stalls, whereas Matsunosuke was patiently ridden by McEvoy. An artist at work surrounded by a bunch of idiots. Texas Gold looked like the winner when he burst to the front and still with 150yds to go, but if you go too fast too early in a sprint you stop to nothing and that is what happened. Safari Mischief did not get the best of runs as several of the field spread out into the centre of the track.
Friday 12th October - 4.00 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
This race looks more difficult to weigh up than the 3.25. No progress so no selection.
Saturday 13th October - 3.45 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Paddypower Sprint Trophy
A much more interesting puzzle than the two at Lingfield today. There will be a selection.
Update
Going just on the easy side of Good in the straight. Racing down the centre looked to be best today, as usual.
Tawaassol, with the visor on again, could give a lead to the high drawn horses, but the best pace is in the low numbers. I would be worried if my horse was drawn high as the rest drawn 9-20 are hold up horses or chasers who usually hang around near the back. King Orchisios (drawn 1), Invincible Force (6), Tournados (5) and Commando Scott (2) are the most likely front runners, and they should give a good tow into the middle to the others drawn low.
Dabbers Ridge will be one of the favourites. With a lower draw and Holland riding he would be a big danger. However Michael Hills rides and the difficulty he has in getting sprinters smoothly out of the stalls, in touch and into a good cruising speed has been demonstrated on many horses, latterly on Prime Defender at Goodwood and The Curragh. Dabbers Ridge will probably get too far behind from stall 15.
Viking Spirit has the visor on. I hope this is just an experiment pending his handicap mark coming back down the few pounds needed to give him a chance again. He is not a 7f horse so could not be expected to perform any better than he did last time out.
The ones to be interested in are Fonthill Road and River Falcon. They have the draw, the recent form and the ease in the ground that they need. They have both been dropped 2lb since finishing a creditable 5th and 6th in the Ayr Gold Cup. Fonthill Road is now just 1lb above his winning AGC mark of 2006 and in similar form.
Update 10am Saturday
There will be some juice in the ground with conditions damp at York early this morning.
Pricewise has gone for Dabbers Ridge, which is therefore shortening in the betting. So, although he has been well supported in early exchanges, I am expecting Fonthill Road to go out to 7/1 at some point. Presently he is 13/2 with William Hill and Sportingbet.
Selection - Fonthill Road 2pts @ 7/1 or better (as of 11.45am 7/1 is available with William Hill)
(an extra point at 7/1 following the first race when being drawn low in the sprint looked an advantage)
The Draw and the Morning Line
The Morning Line gave stats that a high percentage (80% or 90%) of Sprint Trophies have been won from double figure stalls, and from that point assumed that high numbers must be best. That was very misleading. Last year Rising Shadow won from 6 with Knot In Wood from 15 just touched off. In 2005 it was Borderlescott from stall 10, Machinist stall 5 was 2nd. In 2004 Jonny Ebeneezer in stall 14 beat horses from stalls 1, 3 and 2. In 2003 Najeebon stall 19 beat a horse from stall 3. For what it is worth not much draw advantage in evidence there. The thing with the York straight is that they invariably race down the centre. The horses that get there quickest and easiest do best. The horses drawn on the stand rail usually get away from the rail quickly, as supposedly there is a slower patch on the rail 4f or 5f out? Pace is the important factor and getting a tow from the right horses can make all the difference.
Sunday 14th October - 3.45 Bath - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is on the fast side of Good.
Sprint handicaps are hard to win from the front at Bath. There is a relentless uphill climb to the post and the races often change completely as the hold up horses come late on the outside to mow the front runners down. In this race there is lots of pace. Kay Two and Cape Royal renew their rivalry from Leicester where only a short head separated them. Other front runners include Malapropism, Zahour Al Yasmeen and possibly Cav Okay. Unless there is a front runners conspiracy it should be set up for a hold up horse. But which one?
Milton Bradley’s stable seems to be in awful form. Otherwise The Tatling would have been the selection. Normally I would worry more about the form of the horse than the form of the stable, where sprints are concerned, but it is hard to ignore the recent form of the stable now that several weeks have past since The Tatling’s last good run.
Roman Maze is a horse I like a lot but 5 furlongs should be too sharp for him even at Bath. Ishi Adiva and Makers Mark are two 3YO hold up horses who should be well suited to this track. Ishi Adiva has been a bit disappointing since called the winner at Newmarket. Maker’s Mark can improve on the Leicester run behind Kay Two where he was slow out of the stalls, held up well in rear and only really got into his stride in the last half furlong. Qadar is also interesting if we get the very strong pace which looks likely on paper. He usually gets his sort of race on the AW but not on turf. Little Edward has won 2 from 3 at Bath and is another to consider.
Fergus Sweeney should have learnt some more about Maker’s Mark at Leicester and I am expecting him to beat Kay Two and Cape Royal at the revised weights. He is still lightly raced and, I hope, capable of better. The draw worries me a little. I much prefer them drawn high so that they are almost forced to challenge on the outside.
Selection - Maker’s Mark @ 6/1 (BetDirect and Better)
Sunday 14th October - 5.15 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is described as Soft (Good/Soft in places) but the Going Stick reading is 7.2 which is usually indicative of going in the Good (Good/Soft) zone. So I am suspicious about the accuracy of the description. You have to be the way Clerks of the Course behave these days.
If the going is genuinely Soft then the race takes on a completely different complexion. Though there are no sprints it may pay to watch the early racing (and what the Clerk has to say if interviewed) before reaching any conclusions.
Update 4pm
The going is most certainly Soft, with the early 2YO times over 1 second per furlong slow. They are coming over to the stand side in the straight though I doubt whether coming all the way over to the rail is such a good idea.
Gift Horse is a very well backed 7/2 favourite revisiting the scene of his greatest triumph. Personally I would not be in a hurry to back one of Dandy’s handicappers in October, whether at Goodwood or anywhere else. The stable all but closes down once the Ayr Gold Cup is done and dusted, with relatively few runners and few winners in October. With the Group and younger horses it maybe different, but the older handicappers do not do much in October. The booking of Richard Hughes is not a negative but I don’t think it is a signpost to a winner either. The one draw is a negative imho. Perhaps I will have egg on my face afterwards.
The conditions suggest to me that we should be looking for a mudlark. I have been stalking Cape for so long that it would be almost cherlish not to back her with conditions at last in her favour. Philip Robinson can usually be relied upon to find the best ground and she is a fairly straightforward hold up ride who travels like a dream on soft ground. Hopefully.
Selection - Cape @ 6/1 (generally)
The Week Ahead (14th October) - Final Betting Week 2007.
Sun 14th - 3.45 Bath - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.15 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 15th - 4.40 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Tues 16th - Blank
Wed 17th - 5.30 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 18th - Blank
Fri 19th - 4.20 Newmarket - 6f Fillies Listed - Boadicea Stakes
Sat 20th - 3.40 Catterick - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.40 Newmarket - 6f Group 3 - Bentinck Stakes
Sun 21st - 2.10 Wolverhampton - Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Friday 19th October - 4.20 Newmarket - 6f Fillies Listed
Soft going, perhaps drying out to Good/Soft by the time of the race. The far side course is in use with the stalls on the stand side of it. At the Cambridgeshire meeting most runners came down the middle, with limited wear on the rails. Now with the large amount of rain which fell on Tuesday it is possible that the less worn areas will be quickest. A close watch is required.
Likely favourite Paradise Isle ran a monster race in the Portland. The 5.7 furlongs was always likely to suit her but it was a surprise to see her run so well tracking the leaders, then pulled out still on the bridle 1 1/2 f out. In the end she was a little unlucky to find Fullandby just too strong in the finish. On that form she is 8 lb clear of any of the opposition tomorrow on Racing Post ratings, Timeform or my ratings. The Portland run wasn’t a fluke because she does come up with this sort of performance from time to time and ran a similar race over 6f on turf at Nad Al Sheba on 9th February. It is probably not a coincidence that she came off of a lengthy break for both runs, though the five weeks off since Doncaster should be plenty this time. In 2004 she was 3rd in this race behind Ruby Rocket and Ringmoor Down on Good/Soft going. In 2005 she was 4th to 50/1 winner Coconut Squeak on Soft. It may be too soft for her tomorrow.
The most obvious alternative on ratings is Ripples Maid. She handles soft going and came a neck 2nd to Firenze in this race last year. Ripples Maid is drawn in the centre next to likely pacemaker Angus Newz and close to another front runner Day By Day. So she should get a nice lead and you can visualise Frankie on Ripples Maid stalking Angus Newz in slipstreaming mode right to the furlong marker. However on her day Angus Newz is capable of making it difficult for the others to catch her. Paradise Isle could play catch me if you can down the stand rail from the 1 draw.
The field is packed with 3YOs looking for black type. Some of them would be hard pressed to win a Class 4 Handicap. Others are a danger, particularly Lady Grace (likes give and 6f may suit) and Vital Statistics (has the pedigree for winning a Listed sprint).
Update 2.30pm
Judged from the 2YO races the going is Good/Soft and this race is likely to be won in about 1.5 to 2.0 seconds above standard. They are racing down the centre with no obvious advantage revealed so far.
This is not going to be a slog so the money for Lady Grace may be misplaced.
Whilst Paradise Isle would be doubtful on Soft ground she has shown good form on Good/Soft. She has a major advantage on ratings. Richard Hughes rode her well at Doncaster and may be a better choice than Kevin Darley her normal rider. The 1 draw should not be a problem as you would expect the other runners to move away from her towards the centre and give her room. After a furlong you would expect her to be clear of them anyway.
Fillies Listed races are not a very predictable betting medium but if form means anything Paradise Isle is a value bet at 7/2. She may not win, but her chances of winning must be better than 1 in 4 1/2.
Selection - Paradise Isle @ 7/2 (generally)
Post Mortem
How wrong can you be? Hughes rode an uninspired race. Having got a fast break out of the stalls he should have tried to make all, a tactic which has been used very effectively with Paradise Isle over course and distance. Instead of which he waited and thereafter was always in danger of getting covered up on a filly who must have space. The ground was marginal for her though and a bit slower than seemed the case early in the afternoon.
Having got that wrong I was also wrong about Lady Grace who swooped late. Watching the video of the York race led me to believe that she really did not have the speed. Time may show that this was an easy Listed race to win with the best fillies well below form. Angus Newz, Cape and Plucky, all rated in the 80s, finished, 3rd, 4th and 6th all close up. Lady Grace will not have run within 5lb of her official 101 rating.
Saturday 20th October - 3.05 Catterick - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Good going and the normal low draw advantage likely to be in evidence.
Matsunosuke surely cannot win off 97. It is only two months ago that his run started with a win off 69. The jockey, track and going look to be less suitable this time.
Oldjoesaid is an obvious contender, and if he can improve on his Haydock run he will be hard to beat.
King Orchisios has plummeted down the weights from 105 just four runs ago to 93 in this race. He has seemed well suited by 5f, yet his last four runs have been at 6f. It is possible that he is best on the AW but some of his turf runs put him in with a chance tomorrow.
Update 10am
Ridden positively King Orchisios is very quick and a 5f specialist. Recent races at 6f seem to have used to get his handicap mark down. Occasional good efforts on the turf suggest that he can be just as good on turf as the AW. He has dropped quickly to a very good mark. The downhill swoop at Catterick should suit and if he gets a halfway lead he will be hard to pass. Oldjoesaid is the danger.
Selection - King Orchisios @ 13/2 (Skybet, Blue Square, Sportingbet and Bet365)
Saturday 20th October - 5.40 Newmarket - 6f Group 3 - Bentinck Stakes
Good/Soft going. The stand side course is in use so Friday’s racing is irrelevant as far as draw advantage is concerned. However whilst there is no evidence to the contrary I would prefer be drawn low and high.
Leaving aside Kapil, who is probably best at around a mile, the best two on ratings are Advanced and Borderlescott. Advanced has produced has best efforts of the last two seasons in the Ayr Gold Cup. His form in Listed and Group races has not been at the same level. So I have the suspicion that he is one of those horses that need a very strong pace and big field to bring out their best. If that is the case he can be opposed tomorrow. Zidane has also appeared to be suited by a fast pace and the front runners coming back to him. The 1 draw gives Spencer a problem if the field comes towards the stand rail.
Borderlescott’s stable has had a virus. He ran poorly in the AGC and his trainer is just hoping he is OK now. Which is no encouragement for selecting him.
The best pace is drawn high - Beckermet (14), Borderlescott (15), Galeota (17) and Hoh Hoh Hoh (13). Advanced will be in touch, but the most likely leaders towards the stand rail may be Assertive and Patavellian. I cannot see any of the others drawn low wanting to be front rank.
When you take all that into account the race appears very open. Zidane is overnight favourite at 11/2, with Advanced at 13/2. Neither strike me as value at those prices.
Update 10am
In the Diadem Assertive finished 3rd beaten only a neck. He was 66/1 but it was no fluke and he beat several of these. 1 1/4 lengths behind him was Zidane in 4th, and they meet on the same terms. If Advanced and Borderlescott are not at their best Assertive is the next best on my ratings. He has won three Listed races and been placed in several Group races. Perhaps today it is his chance to win a Group 3. Some may think that the going is against him, but Good/Soft should be fine. He ran a poor race on Heavy at the Curragh.
Of the others Zidane could do it but needs a fast pace and luck from stall 1. Opera Cape had excellent form as a 2YO and would be a danger if coming back to that level. He has to improve a good deal on his beating of Come Out Fighting at Hamilton.
Assertive is being matched on Betfair at 13/1 and 14/1, and has become available with a few bookmakers including Sportingbet at 12/1, even 13/1 is available in a place.
Selection - Assertive @ 13/1+ on Betfair (or with SportingChronicle.com.)
The Betting Blog has ended for 2007.
If you have followed the Blog throughout the season I hope you got some enjoyment and profit from it and were not too exasperated by my many failures and failings. There were times that I wished I had never put my head on the block. Especially during the 30 loser run which lasted from mid July to the start of September.
All the results are shown on the Cumulative Results page.
I will probably do a more complete analysis, but for the time being the results show this :-
134 bets made
2 void (withdrawn not under orders)
112 lost
20 won (15.1%)
112 points lost
130.75 points won
= 18.75 points profit
14.2% profit on investment
98 selections shortened in the betting
10 SPs were the same
24 selections went off at longer odds
In my experience this was a fairly typical season of punting on sprinters. A roller coaster ride. But not as successful as I had hoped because of two long losing runs. I thought there might be one, hence the warning at the very start of the Blog, but I was not expecting two. The judgement of draw advantage and ground conditions seems to be getting more difficult each year as Clerks of the Course overwater more often and actively try to eliminate, and more sinisterly move, traditional draw advantages. Apart from the watering and drainage schemes, there are more divided courses, false rails and switched stall positions. Which all makes finding a draw or pace advantage that much more difficult. Betting was also made more difficult in 2007 by a very dry Spring followed by a long spell of wet weather. So the normal period when the courses dry out and profit can be made from a good knowledge of going preferences never really happened in 2007. A combination of a good crop of 3YO sprinters with a trend for more of them to be well handicapped took me rather a long time to adjust to in the middle of the season. As if there are not enough challenges it seems that the handicappers are rating 2YO sprinters more realistically and more of them are starting their 3YO season with a chance of winning in all age company. No doubt there are positives to balance these punting negatives. I just can’t think of them at the moment.
If I have time over the winter I intend to add pages to the website of more general interest on subjects like Handicapping, Racehorses and Betting, with the emphasis on the sprinters of course. The first article will probably be on Computer Racing Form. I will also tackle the conundrum of why every year the media decry the quality of our sprinters, whilst at the same time they are the most numerous, arguably the most competitive and often the most successful division in raiding European Listed and Group races. Also I am feeling the urge to snipe at some of the numerous myths which infest Racing.