This betting blog will follow my fortunes through the 2007 season as I try to make some money betting on sprinters.

Putting my analysis into the public domain is a way of making sure that I put the effort into analysising races and results which is necessary to make a profit. It is a high risk strategy :-(

These days I bet mainly on Grades 1 to 3, occasionally Grade 4 if I know all the horses well. Most of the races will be handicaps. My records show that I do not make a profit on bets under 3/1, so there are unlikely to be any. The majority of bets are likely to be in the range of 5/1 to 12/1. At those odds if you can get one winner every six bets, on average, you are in profit. But of course the large majority of bets are losers and losing runs of 20 plus are not unknown. Such betting is not for the faint hearted. You need self confidence, arrogance if you like, to continue with your methods regardless, knowing that your approach will come good in the end. There are no fun bets. No bets just because there happens to be a good sprint on. Bets at the start of the season are all on the older horses, Knowledge of the three-year-olds (3YO) accumulates over the season, and in any case 3YOs win few all-age sprint handicaps until late summer. Occasionally a 3YO will run so well in an all age race that their chance in a 3YO only handicap looks outstanding. But generally the older sprinters rule.
                                                      CURRENT RACE

30th March 4.45 pm  Cammidge Trophy

The turf flat season begins tomorrow at Newcastle. Forget Dubai there is only one British horse in the Group 1 6 furlong dirt race. and although many of the names are familiar we know far too little about them.

On the contrary we know plenty about the runners in the 3.15 at Newcastle, the Cammidge Trophy. Although this is only an early season Listed race it is sometimes an important guide to the top Group Class sprints later in the year. In 2006 the winners of the July Cup, Haydock Sprint Cup, Golden Jubilee, Nunthorpe (all Group One) Duke of York and Temple Stakes (both Group Two) were in the Cammidge Trophy. In 2005 it was won by the Nunthorpe winner La Cucaracha. The reason why this race attracts such a good entry is down to the lack of alternatives. The only alternative before May is the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket. So the Cammidge is definitely a race to study carefully and ideally to be there to see the horses at close quarters.
This year the race looks competitive and open. The only ones I would draw a line through are Skhilling Spirit (needs a very testing 6f and would be better off in 7f handicaps), Danum Dancer (not good enough on what we know) and Angus Newz (unlikely, unless she goes on her own to the far rail and finds a fast strip). Steenberg is probably aimed at the Duke of York again and having a prep race here.
The race has an interesting shape in that there are five regular front runners in opposition - Sierra Vista, Danum Dancer, Hinton Admiral, The Kiddykid and Angus Newz. So the early pace should be too strong, thus favouring the holdup horses. Secondly the stand rail is supposed to be slightly faster, if you believe the Clerk of the Course?? The Spring Mile at 2.40pm will test this theory. If it appears faster then the stand rail will get very crowded and the best place to be will be on the rail tracking the leaders, but not towards the back.
Pivotal Flame has probably been prepared for this and has a fair chance on ratings. He hasn’t won since 2004, but will manage it one day. He has a poor draw in 4. Rising Shadow finished the 2006 Season very strongly and could have progressed further. If he is primed for this he may go close, but he will be coming from the back through traffic. On her day and at these terms Sierra Vista is capable of making all down the rail and holding on. She has a good record at Newcastle (2 wins, 1 place, 3 unplcd) but first race of the season over 6f, rather than 5f, in a field with several front runners suggests she will not manage it tomorrow. Mecca’s Mate, Bahamian Pirate and The Kiddykid have nothing special going for them and are not well drawn. Hinton Admiral’s future is likely to be over further and he is probably not good enough anyway.

This leaves us with Applachian Trail, who has plenty to do with his Listed win penalty to carry. On the numbers he has just an average chance. His handicap win in Dubai on the 8th February probably flatters him, but his fitness is proven and he is in very good form. The other thing I particularly like about his chance is the perfect lead down the stand rail he is likely to get from Sierra Vista and/or Danum Dancer. If he gets a fair break and does not get shuffled back, this could set him up.

So the selection is Applachian Trail but I won’t be betting. March is too early in the season. Too many unknown factors. I have no idea how the market will shape up but I imagine that Applachian Trail will be 5/1 or better.

There is also a Grade 3 6f Conditions Stakes at 4.05 at Kempton. The race looks to be between Mutamared and Eisteddfod, but the fitness and well being of those two has to be taken on trust. This is invariably a race which warrants close attention for later in the season. This year perhaps less so. Not the sort of race I bet on. Maybe a long priced one will spring a surprise?

March 31st 8.10am Update

Hinton Admiral is presently making the market for those who fancy more likely winners such as Applachian Trail, Pivotal Flame and Rising Shadow. Which is nice. If you are betting, early prices looks like the direction to go. 13/2 Applachian Trail is available with Stan James. Perhaps it won’t last long? He is the Racing Post tip, which is a shame for the price.

Post Mortem  11 pm

The ground at Newcastle was Very Soft. Only the Lincoln and Cammidge were run in faster than +1.00 sec/furlong over standard, so nearly Heavy ground times (the wind effect needs to be checked). The first four home were the horses who raced closest to the stand rail. The field finished well strung out, 10 lengths back to the 5th.

Sierra Vista set a good pace, and the factors mentioned above played into the hands of Rising Shadow and Skhilling Spirit who were the only ones staying on strongly at the finish. Rising Shadow did well to catch Sierra Vista and has clearly progressed. On my ratings he had a big task to concede 8 lbs to SV if she was near her best. Do not expect him to repeat form as good as this on fast Summer ground or when the pace is modest. Later in the season you may question his consistency. Don’t. He needs these conditions to be at his best.

For Applachian Trail the race went exactly as I hoped, chasing SV and then moving through to 2nd place looking the danger. Then, instead of wearing her down, he faded. RS came passed and then SS close home. As conditions were very similar to those for his Listed win at Newmarket, and he has plenty of stamina, the reasons for the poor run are, for the present, unclear. He was quite well backed 13/2 early > 11/2 > 9/2.

RS and SV deserve lots of credit. Those drawn 1 - 6 stood little chance and their current form and well being should not be judged from this run. No doubt one or two of them will pop up at a better price as a consequence. Skhilling Spirit could win a soft ground 7f handicap off 97 OR. He fell out of the stalls losing 3 or 4 lengths, but as the race was run that did not make a lot of difference. Today he ran through beaten horses to be 3rd.

Results - 1.00
 

April 1st (Ha-ha) 00.15 am

There is a Grade 2 handicap at Lingfield tomorrow. Unfortunately the race has cut up badly with only four runners. It is still interesting, featuring as it does, three horses in excellent All Weather form. The betting public seem to be mesmerized by Border Music and sent him off a ridiculous 2/1 favourite for a hot 5f Listed race at Lingfield that was obviously too sharp a test for him. He finished last. 6f will be more to his liking but he has a big task to give 8 lbs to Ajigolo, who on my ratings is within 2 lbs of him, ie 6 lbs well in. As I write this BM is favourite on Betfair at 2.48 (6/4) with Ajigolo at 3.55 (5/2). Unbelievable! Maltese F is at 3.15 and RM at 5.3
Maltese Falcon is a front runner, and a strong contender too. Unluckily for him he is unlikely to get an easy lead at a modest pace because Ripples Maid usually races prominently, and can front run also. Strictly at the weights she would be the pick, but we do not know whether she is at her best yet.
So it is a nice puzzle. I would suggest Ajigolo at the current prices on Betfair. But this is a race I will avoid because of the short price and the uncertainty over whether MF will get an easy lead. I can understand someone with a different betting approach believing that this is a good opportunity, not to be missed. There are several possibilities if my analysis is close to the mark.

Post Mortem

The die was cast in this race when Richard Thomas decided after 1f to drop Ripples Maid in behind Maltese Falcon rather than press him for the lead. By the time that Ajigolo was pushed up to challenge 3f out the race was down to a 3f sprint. Predictably MF was able to maintain his advantage. As expected Border Music made little impression. The Racing Post says this - “Border Music proved a disappointing favourite. He really wants a bigger field, a good pace and plenty of cover, none of which were in evidence here. Six furlongs is arguably on the short side to boot.”

I suggest that you disregard this advice, or you could find yourself backing him in a bigger field with exactly the same result. On a mark of 105 the handicapper has got him on the All Weather. Remember he could not win off handicap marks around 80 on the turf last season. As far as I am concerned he ran to the rating I have. Higher ratings which Timeform and the Racing Post use are down to two races, neither of which, in hindsight as strong as seemed the case at the time. The fact that no timefigures support the high ratings is another clue. Border Music is a very good horse, just not as good as has been portrayed.

Ajigolo will be a contender next time. He “suffered” from winning a very weak Group 2 in Germany at 2YO and is now running in a realistic grade off a mark (97 OR) from which he can just about win again.

Ripples Maid is slowly coming back to her best and will surely win off 92. I rate her quite a bit higher than either the Racing Post or Timeform. She was only just caught on the post by Firenze in a Listed contest at Newmarket in her final race of 2006. Before that she had won a Chester Listed race and finished 4th in as strong a 3YO sprint handicap as there was in 2006, behind Al Qasi, Burning Incense and Charles Darwin. A quick filly like her, worthy of a mark in the 90s, will find the black-type-chasers easy meat in the weaker fillies Listed races. Even in good fillies races, her speed will still make her a contender for a place unless the pace is hot.

April 3rd  3.30 pm

There is a Grade 4 5f Conditions Stakes at Nottingham tomorrow, at 3.10 pm. Although of humble grade, with poor prize money, it usually attracts useful horses. Last year Reverence won it, and in 2004 the Nunthorpe winner of that year, Bahamian Pirate won.

There are some very interesting sprinters entered. Firstly the 2003 Prix L’Abbaye winner Patavellian, whose exploits that year are etched on my betting memory, both the highs and the low, particularly the low. He has had joint problems in the last two years and only ran in the Palace House Stakes in 2006. There is no better trainer of sprinters than Roger Charlton, and the fact that this 9YO returns after nearly a year off, tells us that there is plenty of life left in the old fella.

Turnkey is another sprinter who I have some personal knowledge of, as I was asked my opinion of him before he was sold in July last year. The videos showed a bonny horse with a chronically short action. He had been sent by Mick Channon to all parts of Europe looking for Listed and Group races in the very softest ground. Buying such a horse did not strike me as a good idea but anyway he was bought for 40,000 guineas for a Middleham Park syndicate, when the price for first choice Advanced went sky high (115,000 gns). The plan was then to run him in the Ayr Gold Cup. That plan was blown out of the water when the stable forgot to enter any horses in the race. With his one target missed he was sent away in October for a joint operation which is said to have gone well. No doubt under Dandy’s care he will start 2007 a stronger horse. It seems unlikely, though, that he will be fully fit, suited by the ground or suited by 5f tomorrow.

The race has some very speedy horses though. Bond City and Cape Royal disputed the lead in a 5f handicap at Epsom in August. BC managed to give 9 lbs and a 1/2 length beating to his rival, who he meets on level terms tomorrow. But Bond City is no longer with Bryan Smarts stable. Milton Bradleys horses always need a run or two to get fully fit, so Cape Royal would be one to avoid on this occasion. The pace should be very strong if either, or both, of these are involved in setting it.

Fire Up The Band had a dismal season in 2006. He has physical problems which used to require medication. Adrian stopped riding him in mid season, so the jockey booking of Silvestre probably has no great significance. FUTB struggles to lead 5f races and Sivestres’ more patient style may be better in coaxing a finish out of him. First or second time out has been a good time to catch him at his best.Terentia is a speedy filly and has an each way chance, at least, if fit.

It is another excellent early season puzzle. I haven’t reached any conclusion yet. Ratings seem less relevant than records of what goes well fresh, Trainers 1st time out strike rates, jockey bookings, the 5f trip and apparent fast ground.

11am

Having arrived back from QPRs glorious win against PNE late last night I awoke to find Patavellian 2/1 favourite and strong at that price on Betfair. Whereas I have every faith that Roger Charlton has Patavellian in good shape for this, a flat 5f will be on the sharp side for him and he is not at his best on fast ground either. A performance like last years Palace House Stakes 6th would probably be good enough but the uphill finish at Newmarket helped him then. He did look the best horse in the paddock at Newmarket that day, in a field that included Reverence, Dandy Man and most of the cream of 5f sprinting, and he may well have a fair 2007 in Listed races. Nevertheless I will be surprised if there isn’t at least one in this field to beat him under these conditions. His draw in 2 is a disadvantage as I see this as a speed contest which is going to be won from close to the pace and close to the stand rail. I like the jockey bookings of Callan for Bond City and Fortune for Terentia and their draws next to the stand rail. If there was a recommendation in this race it would be to oppose Patavellian at prices shorter than 3.00 on Betfair. But I am not going to include this as a selection. So no bet.

Post Mortem

The ground was called Good/Firm, but it was probably more like Good on the 5f course.

Fire Up The Band got a quick start, soon gaining 1 length on the field. Nobody seemed to want to press the pace and Silvestre was able to get FUTB over to the stand rail and to keep something in hand through the middle of the race. Cape Royal headed him for a while, but faded over 1f out, to leave FUTB in front. Apart from Bond City nothing looked a danger in the final furlong. Bond City may have proved a bit more of a threat if FUTB hadn’t crossed him but Silvestre had enough in hand to last home. Patavellian could never summon enough pace from 3f out to get to the leaders. He will do much better over 6f, particularly on easy ground. Cape Royal seems to have come back in good heart. Turnkey, tenderly handled, was badly outpaced early and just stayed on one pace, probably flattered by the field coming back to him. It would take an optimist, or bad race reader, to see anything very promising in the performance. Terentia could not find the pace to challenge, which was a little disappointing. It remains to be seen whether FUTB can hang onto this level of form through the next few weeks. Next time he will probably be OK, but he would not want a fight for the lead, and Silvestre was probably important to him being able to show his best in this race.

April 6th

A Class 2 3YO Handicap over 6 furlongs at Kempton tomorrow. Most of the runners are having their seasonal debut. I know next to nothing about them, so there will be no further comment before the race.

Post Mortem

A difficult race from which to draw any firm conclusions. The next few weeks will put the result and performances in context. Ebn Reem won well in what I thought was a workmanlike fashion. He pulled early and was eased late, so there is a bit more there, compared with the bare result. The time was OK. The race reasonably competitive.

April 6th

There is a Class 4 4YO+ 5 furlong Handicap at Musselburgh on Sunday which is more up my street. A low draw and speed from the gate are important assets over the 5f at Musselburgh, particularly on fast ground. At first glance few in the field seem to have these characteristics. So it could be a race to be interested in, despite the fact that 13 of the 14 runners have not run for 5 months plus.

Sunday 10.30 am
In circumstances like this sometimes one that stands out because it is known to go well fresh, or is with a trainer who gets them ready early and is in good form. On this occasion Rare Breed and Spiritual Peace are the ones to which this most obviously applies. High Reach has also gone well fresh, and is having his first run for a new stable.
Several of the field are unlikely to appreciate the fast 5f, among them Geojimali, Oranmore Castle, Bond Boy, Misphire, High Reach and Bo McGinty. The runners who are most likely to be suited by conditions are Handsome Cross (probably just need run) and Rare Breed (goes well fresh but probably not well handicapped). Blazing Heights, Spiritual Peace, and Kings College Boy should also be OK. Several are due to be ridden by inexperienced apprentices, which coincidentally are ones which will find the trip too sharp, suggesting prep runs. In comparison the jockey bookings of Darryl Holland for Rare Breed and Neil Callan for Spiritual Peace stand out. The draw does not help much in separating out the contenders.

Bond Boy and Soto have been withdrawn.

Whilst there are clearly ones to avoid and others to be interested in, having spent a couple of hours on the race I could not come up with any strong conclusion. Rare Breed (14/1), High Reach (8/1), Handsome Cross (10/1) and Spiritual Peace (12/1) were the ones which interested me most.
Recommend - No Bet

Post Mortem

Times suggest that the ground was Good (Good/Soft) rather than the Official - Good/Firm (Good in places) - Watering.

When Geojimali won the Ayr Silver Cup the only place he looked to have any chance of winning was in the last 50 yds. He followed that up staying on too late over 5f on soft ground at Pontefract. I wrote beside the result “5f is too sharp even on a very stiff track. Promising for 6f ”. He has come along way in a short time. Less than a year ago he was running in Banded company at Wolverhampton, and had still to register his first win. Yesterday was his 5th win from 31 lbs higher in the handicap. The strong pace, softer than predicted ground and 7 lb claim will have helped him but it surprised me that he was able to get into contention at all, let alone win. At the finish he was going two to the other horses one. This is a horse to follow, and keep following, over 6f, especially on easy ground. From time to time his path from the back will be blocked and he will not be able to get into contention. He does not do anything quickly but in the big field handicaps he will surely pay his way. Yesterday he carried a completely inexperienced apprentice to his first win, so connections have the option of putting up a good 7 lb claimer when it matters most.

But for Geojimali my analysis would have been OK. Rare Breed led. Handsome Cross was always in the firing line and looked the most likely winner as they came inside the final furlong. He was fighting it out with Spiritual Peace, and they were only beaten by a neck and another neck. High Reach stayed on into 4th
 

Thursday April 12th

Class 4 6f Conditions Stakes race for 3YOs at Leicester.

This was a slowly run race to halfway followed by a 3f flat-out sprint. The time was over one second slower than the preceding 3YO Seller. Several raced freely and others were disadvantaged by being held up off the pace when the tempo quickened. Very little weight should be given to the result.

Friday April 13th

There is a Class 4 6f Handicap for older horses at Folkestone. This will be interesting, if for no other reason, because of the draw advantage for horses racing on the far side, which comes and goes at Folkestone. The draw advantage used to be associated with compaction of a strip of ground by vehicles - cars and the ambulance etc - which had to use the straight ourse due to the absence of a road beside the course. In the past this bias has been a vital component of 6f/7f betting, particularly on easy ground. However the bias has been less in evidence, or exploited less in the last year or two. At the 3rd April meeting on Good ground only one horse tried the far side in the five straight track races. Perhaps this was because of the smallish fields and the effect of earlier NH meetings chewing up that side of the course? The information on this website would suggest that the draw bias is no longer in evidence - http://www.startingstalls.co.uk/ but it does not take into account where the horses raced on the course and I sense that the bias is probably still there.

Only three horses raced on the far side in one race, none particularly fancied, and the relative advantage of the stand and far sides was not tested. A draw advantage will be worth looking for, but not until the ground is much softer.

The Week Ahead

Monday 16th - Blackheath - 2.40 Wolverhampton
           - 4.15 Windsor - 5f Class 4 66-80 handicap
Wed 18th   - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 3 81-95 handicap
            5.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 81-100 handicap 3YO only
Thurs 19th  - 2.45 Ripon - 6f Class 4 71-85 handicap 3YO only
            3.10 Newmarket - Abernant Stakes Listed 6f
Fri 20th     - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 96-110 handicap
           - 4.15 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 66-80 handicap
           - 7.15 Lingfield - 6f Class 4 66-80 handicap (AW)
Sat 21st    - Pinpoint - 2.40 Newbury - 8f Class 2 Heritage Handicap - Bloor Homes Spring Cup
            Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
                  - 5f Class 3 76-90 handicap 3YO only

Wednesday will possibly see the first bet of the year in the Class 3 handicap at Beverley, given the major draw advantage which usually eliminates most of the field from serious consideration and sets a pattern for the race. If not there, then the next day in the Abernant Stakes.
 

Monday 16th April

The 5f handicap at Windsor has too many unknown and random factors for me to be interested. There are also a number of 4YOs in the race that operated under my radar as 3YOs and so I do not have a good knowledge of them. On top of everything else today they are using the far side half of the track so there will probably be no draw advantage.

Wednesday 17th April  3.20 Beverley 5f Class 3

10 am.

The draw advantage on the 5f track at Beverley is one of the biggest in British sprint racing, Chester aside. The bend, camber, position of the stalls on a slope and wear on the track all add to this, favouring the high number stalls. Blackheath was once drawn 2 in a 20 runner field there. The horses in stalls 1,3,4 and 5 were all withdrawn on one pretext or another. Connections knew that there was no point in turning up. My experience is that in an all age large field handicap the draw advantage amounts to nearly 1 lb per stall. So the horse in stall 1 today has roughly 14 lbs disadvantage compared with the horse in stall 19. Of course these are horse races and tactics and luck play a large part. So a low drawn horse can still win if it can get close to the far rail quickly and get a dream run through the pack. Something like this happened last year when Blackheath (stall 16) led into the final furlong looking the winner, but was scythed down late by stablemates Circuit Dancer and the winner Danzig River (stall 4), who got a miracle run through a wall of horses.

I try not to consider the draw at all until I have worked out which horses have the best form chance and have considered all the other factors. In this case there is very little recent form. Only Cape Royal, First Order, Continent, and Dig Deep have run in the last five months. Few have run at their best fresh, or have trainers with a high 1st time out strike rate. Desert Commander won 1st time out in 2006. Most of the field are OK over a stiff 5f on fast ground. Fullandby and Steel Blue will be better over 6f on give. Pivotal’s Princess would not want it too fast. Wyatt Earp and Royal Challenge would prefer 6f. Green Park is probably best on give. Dig Deep has been running well on the AW and over further. Stonecrabstomorrow is best over further and on AW/cut so far?

All things considered Desert Commander and Cape Royal stand out as the most likely winners today. They are suited by the conditions and very well drawn. Cape Royal has run some of his best races on soft ground but in my opinion he is equally good on fast ground. He ran one of his best races of 2006 over this course, distance and Good/Firm going last June when beaten just over a length off a 3lbs higher mark. He is a front runner and should grab the favoured far rail within 1f. The risk you take with him is inconsistent starting which sometimes sees him cut off from the front rank and his chance ruined. The other unknown is the degree to which he will be challenged for the lead. Bluebok, Playful Dane and Pivotals Princess could force him to go too fast and run out of gas. He is though one of the fastest front runners in Britain as he showed again by leading Fire Up The Band and Bond City at Nottingham. He faded there as is typical of Milton Bradleys horses first time out. Today he should be at, or close to, 100%. In 2005 he won 2nd time out. In 2006 he started high in the handicap. He is back on his highest winning mark today.

Desert Commander was a Godolphin 2YO who did not race at 3YO. He was an impressive surprise in his 2006 debut at Thirsk and impressive again beating Zidane comfortably at Ripon. For those two wins he went up from 78 to 97 in the handicap. He was on my Stewards Cup short list but ran a stinker there, had bad draws in the Great St Wilfred and at York, then ran another poor race in the Ayr Gold Cup. The ground at Thirsk was genuine Good/Soft but some argue that he is best on fast ground. He is favourite in todays race based on the 19 draw, the very taking win at Ripon and the first time out win last year. His handicap mark has fallen to 91, only 2 lbs higher than at Ripon. On the down side you have to take his fitness on trust. Also in seven runs last year he only ran at or near his best on two occasions. There is no obvious pattern. In the circumstances I could not back him at short odds. There is far too much doubt to take 3/1 or less. He might get a perfect lead from Cape Royal and waft passed in the final 100yds. On the other hand he could just as easily be shuffled back along the rail and finish nearer last than first.

Early season bets are more risky than normal as there could well be horses in the race who have improved and are cherry ripe that we do not know about. Just like Desert Commander last year. However, if there is a nice sprint handicap to bet on in April, this is it. The draw advantage is a powerful incentive and Cape Royal is a good price in my opinion. I would have bet at 6/1. My worry is that he will be caught late on, but at 7/1 plus on Betfair I am happy to take the risk.

Selection - Cape Royal at 6/1 or better.


Post Mortem

It was good to see a 5YO Pivotal improving and running its best ever race. ;-) It would have been even better if Pivotals Princess had left this effort until her next run. Cape Royal ran OK. It would have been better to see the apprentice taking the rail rather than running one or two horses off the rail to halfway. A few in behind ran eye catching races. Green Park was lucky enough to get over more towards the far rail but still ran an excellent race from stall 8. As he has run his very best races on soft ground he would be one to be interested in if it ever rains again. Fullandby’s effort was even more meritorious as he raced more towards the outside from stall 5. This is a big strong classy animal who looks due for another excellent season. He goes very well on Soft. Wyatt Earp made stealthy progress up the rail tenderly handled overtaking many in the final furlong, as befits a 6f horse. The RUK presenters picked him out for special mention. He is a horse to be interested in, but he only did what he was entitled to in this race passing beaten horses. First Order ran quickly from stall 4 on the outside and lasted 4f plus, which was an excellent run in the circumstances. Desert Commander was heavily backed into 2/1 favourite. Crazy. Perhaps as a consequence of the draw he went too fast too early chasing Cape Royal and paid the price. Maybe over 6f he will pop up at a much better price later in the season.

Results -2.00

Thursday 18 th April - 3.10 Newmarket - The Abernant Stakes (6f Listed)

The times at Newmarket suggest ground just on the fast side of Good. The way that the races were run yesterday would suggest little or no draw advantage. However in the past the far rail has often been the place to be on the far track. Tomorrow the stalls are switched to the stand side (of the far track), and a horse racing in a small group or alone up the far rail may be at an advantage.

A particular liking for these conditions may be a better basis for a bet than ratings. A few can be readily discarded because they are either not good enough, out of form, unlikely to be fully fit or not ideally suited by 6f on fast ground. So get rid of Fantasy Believer, Ajigolo, The Kiddykid, Mutamared, Fire Up The Band, Baltic King, Excusez Moi and Asset. Which does not leave many.

11 am Yesterday I reached the conclusion that I would recommend Paradise Isle, with a possible saver on Sierra Vista. It was disappointing to see the Racing Post tip Paradise Isle and I hoped that the price would be better than their 7/1 tissue. As it was Ladbrokes went up 5/1 Paradise Isle joint second favourite in the evening and the Betfair market followed suit. This morning 5/1 is the best you will get and there are several bookmakers shorter.

Thinking about it afresh the price is a reasonable one. Many can be discarded, as above. Although on ratings she has something to find, with her 4 lb penalty, Paradise has plenty going for her. It is a much less competitive race than last years when she made all up the far rail and just held off Les Arcs. Her record at Newmarket is excellent. She is drawn on the outside which invites her to go to the far rail on her own, or in a small group. Connections will want shooting if they don’t take full advantage of this opportunity. She likes to dominate and is best on her own rather than amongst horses. Conditions favour speed. Her recent second place in Dubai is encouraging as well.

The favourite Asset is a false favourite at 7/2 in my opinion. Support for him from pundits and the market seems to rest on the belief that he will be suited by dropping back from 7f to 6f. He works well at home apparently and is very lightly raced, so more is expected. Personally I think his stablemate Assertive is a much better bet at the prices (14/1). Asset beat Assertive a neck in the Jersey Stakes (7f). Whereas Asset had a perfect lead up the favoured stand rail, Assertive had to struggle wider out in the pack and was hampered as he came through, getting closest at the finish. Assertive is fully effective at 6f, as befits his true sprinters pedigree Bold Edge-Tart And A Half. Personally I see nothing in the Jersey run to suggest that Asset will be any better at 6f than he is at 7f/8f. John Whitleys computer says that Assertive’s best runs are several lbs ahead of Asset’s and that’s good enough for me. Assertive went well first time out last year when 3rd in the Greenham.

Sierra Vista impressed at Newcastle without running to her very best. Being able to dominate on very soft ground up that favoured rail helped her there. Conditions today will be very different. Whilst I see her leading the main pack down the stand rail, at some point she will come under pressure from Fire Up The Band and I think she will probably fade in the final furlong. I would rather back her at 5f on easy ground than 6f on fast ground. On ratings though she has every chance. Quito is the only other one I would consider. Spencers record on him is one ride one win. He won this race in 2005 but not first time out. David Chapman is making slightly negative noises about his chance today. I am hoping that the fast conditions and a little rustiness will keep him at bay today.

Selection - Paradise Isle at 5/1 or better.

Post Mortem

Well I got this one spectacularly wrong. Paradise Isle ran on her own down the centre rather than going to the far rail. As the race went on Kevin Darley edged her back more towards Assertive and Asset. Do you ever feel like screaming at the TV ? She had every chance 150 yds out but predictably, the way she was ridden, was well beaten in 3rd at the finish. Assertive ran a nice race in 2nd considering his 14/1 early price, again having every chance.
That is the case for the defence. Now for the prosecution. :-(
Now we know that Asset is a high class sprinter under these conditions. He did not assert until the final half furlong but he kept ploughing on at a rapid pace when all the others had cried enough. In the process he knocked 0.3 seconds off the Rowley Mile 6f record, which is quite something, though the course is only used Spring and Autumn when the ground is usually slower. In a fast pace race at a stiff track he will be a contender for good Group races. Avoid him for now on easy ground, sharp tracks or slow pace small field races, but I won’t be rubbishing his chance again.

Results -3.00
 

Friday 19th April - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 96-110 Handicap

5 pm Not much good recent form. A few can be discarded. Baron’s Pit has been off nearly two years, has changed stables and was best over a stiff 6f when we last saw him. Northern Empire and Sweet Afton look badly handicapped. The Lord is best with give in the ground. Woodcote and The Tatling may need the run.

River Falcon can go well fresh. He is 2 lbs out of the handicap and is making a very long journey for this run. Why? Corridor Creeper also goes well fresh. Green Manalishi won this last year, but has switched stables. He has a good record at Newbury with two wins and a fair Group race run from three races. However he is not trained near the track any longer. Maltese Falcon and Merlin’s Dancer have last time out wins and must be amongst the favourites. These two will force the pace, along with Corridor Creeper who does not quite have their speed. Woodcote, The Lord and sometimes Green Manalishi also tend to press the pace. There will be no hanging around and perhaps the logical route is to go for a hold up horse. Difficult. My rating calculations have not helped much. There is probably no significant draw advantage. Personally I would avoid Maltese Falcon because he will not get things his own way tomorrow. Otherwise it seems very open to me.

Saturday 20th April - 4.15 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes

6 pm Friday The ground at Thirsk is very quick despite watering in the straight. There looked to be a stand rail advantage today on the 6f course. Not unknown at Thirsk, though the draw is nothing like as important as it has been in the past.

A few can be discarded - Pawan and The Bear (out of depth), Tabaret (best 5f, prob not good enough, form a long time ago), Fayr Jag (tough task at weights, prob better for the run?), Celtic Mill (tough task at weights, very best at 5f, but has the plumb rail draw). Beckermet was in poor form in Dubai and you would need to know how he is going now to be interested. Which leaves Tax Free, Advanced and Bond City who unfortunately all have low draws.

 

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