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There are now three archive pages. For a short explanation of the aims and methods go back to the first page - Betting Blog Archive 1.
The Week Ahead (27th May).
Sun 27th - 3.50 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap 3YO only
Mon 28th - Blank
Tues 29th - 4.20 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.00 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Wed 30th - 2.35 Brighton - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.50 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
Thurs 31st - Pinpoint - 7.15 Sandown - 10f Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes
- 4.50 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.20 Sandown - 5f Group 2 - Temple Stakes
Fri 1st June - Blackheath - 2.00 Wolverhampton - 6f Claimer (109th race)
- 3.35 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.30 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 2nd - 2.20 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.05 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 3.30 Epsom - 5f Class 2 Heritage Handicap
- 5.40 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Sun 3rd - Blank
A very quiet start to the week with no sprints of Classes 1-4 on Bank Holiday Monday, and little else of betting interest until Thursday. The Temple Stakes and two brilliant handicaps at Epsom on Derby Day are worth waiting for though.
Thurs 31st May - 8.20 Sandown - Group 2 Temple Stakes
With soft ground there is usually a high draw advantage in Sandown sprints. The 2YO race on Tuesday was won by Presto Levanter. Both she and the 2nd raced up the far rail, whilst runners racing away from the rail faded out of contention. This is a recurring pattern on the 5f course, which makes winner finding much easier. The only problem is that the Clerk of the Course sometimes arranges a false rail several yards inside the far rail, which nullifys the draw advantage. When he first started doing this he did not inform the media. On 1st July 2005 The Jobber won from stall 1 at the rewarding odds of 66/1, from which time we have been told about rail position changes. As far as I know the rail is in its normal place.
Dandy Man is a very high class sprinter, but he will almost certainly be disadvantaged by conditions, There was much talk of his dislike of soft ground before last years Nunthorpe, and despite the fears he went off favourite and ran poorly. Another problem is that he does best tracking the pace, and if they do not go fast enough for him early, he pulls hard, Sandown sprints are usually run at a moderate early pace because of the need to last up the hill. He is drawn in 4, which isn’t that good either. All reasons to lay him at under 2/1 which were the odds taken early on Betfair. It will be a pity if he drops out. He is a favourite to take on under these conditions.
The Trader has the plumb 9 draw and was second to Reverence last year. But he has yet to run this season and you would expect him to be better for the run? Angus Newz should be outclassed. Excusez Moi has something to find and is not well drawn in 3. Wi Dud has his work cut out drawn 1. Firenze may well be outpaced midrace and also has something to find on form. Red Clubs is poorly drawn in 2, and that draw will give his jockey a problem. So far he has shown his best form ridden prominently or in touch, in daylight, over 6f. It must be a disadvantage if he races wide tomorrow?
This leaves Moss Vale and Sierra Vista. Both are at attractive prices. Moss Vale’s run in Ireland against Benbaun was creditable and he may be approaching peak form. A repeat of his Prix L’Abbaye form would see him go close. Sierra Vista is in the form of her life and has ideal conditions. She could be messed up by something, possibly Moss Vale, disputing the lead. If she is too fast for them early and grabs the rail, which is quite likely, she will be hard to peg back.
The Racing Post forecast 9/1 but I would have been very happy with 6/1 Sierra Vista. She is 13/2 overnight with Ladbokes and longer odds to small money on Betfair. It is a shame that there will probably be a 25% Rule 4.
Selection - Sierra Vista 13/2 x 2 pts (Ladbrokes). Patience may be rewarded by a longer price in the morning?
Update 11am
Dandy Man has dropped out. For a while Stan James offered Sierra Vista at 6/1 with no Rule 4 deduction. 11/2 is still available with one or two bookies. At this price Sierra Vista is an excellent bet. The main dangers are Adrian and Moss Vale taking her on for the lead, and that she goes too fast anyway setting it up for a closer. If I was making a book on the race she would be favourite at 4/1 or thereabouts.
Post Mortem
In the future Sierra Vista is unlikely to have things go so perfectly for her, and no doubt the likes of Moss Vale, Reverence, Dandy Man and others will put her in her place. This was her day.
Moss Vale, The Trader, Red Clubs and Firenze all impressed in the paddock. Red Clubs was messed up by the draw, the decision to drop him out and by 5f being a shade too quick for him. Just draw a line through this run.
I am assuming for the purposes of the results that most people got 11/2 or better. The 13/2 minus 25% comes to 4.875/1 but there was plenty of 6/1+ available on Betfair , 6/1 after Dandy Man withdrew and 11/2 in various places afterwards. My bets averaged 11/2 so that is what I will use.
Results + 8.75
Saturday 2nd June - 3.30 Epsom - 5f Heritage Handicap
A spectacle. 17 closely matched sprinters racing down the fastest five furlongs in the World. In recent years it has not been an easy race in which to predict the winner. A 12/1 winner last year, Desert Lord, and 14/1, 20/1, 9/1 and 16/1 before that. As in most years the ground against the stand rail (high draw) looks quickest, and today the field on the round course has come wide over to the stand rail on a couple of occasions. A front runner often wins but hold up horses like Caribbean Coral and Bishops Court have also been successful. The most popular winning formula is to make all down the stand rail.
This year the strongest pace is in the low numbers - Classic Encounter, Loch Verdi, Merlin’s Dancer, Cape Royal and Handsome Cross. It is unlikely that any of those will make it all the way over to the stand rail. They could tow ‘a closer’ into contention though, specifically Fantasy Explorer. Wyatt Earp surely does not have the speed to get into this.
Of the high draws Fire Up The Band is very likely to get the rail. He won this in 2005, and if he was in anything like that form he would be a good thing. Dandy managed a double win with that nutcase Funfair Wane in the Ayr Gold Cup, so just maybe FUTB can repeat the feat in this? Other possible leaders down the rail are Moorhouse Lad, Bond City and Corridor Creeper. Green Manalishi has the early speed to lead but usually tracks the pace these days. With the horses taking part I do not see there being a crazy pace. So the hold up horses, including Hogmaneigh, Machinist, Holbeck Ghyll and Caribbean Coral may be left with a little too much to do? Holbeck Ghyll (probably) and Caribbean Coral are best on a sounder surface. Loch Verdi may also prefer faster ground?
Selection tomorrow.
I have spent hours on this race going round in circles, checking race videos, ratings, tactics, the lot. The ones that have interested me most are Green Manalishi, Bond City, Fire Up The Band, Corridor Creeper, Moorhouse Lad and Holbeck Ghyll. Hard against the stand rail did seem fastest yesterday, and the fact that Epsom have had no chance to water helps my confidence in that. Of the horses that will race next to the rail, either FUTB or Moorhouse Lad will lead, at least on that part of the track. You would expect Green Manalishi to track, along the rail, and Caribbean Coral to be in rear on the rail with Hogmaneigh. The likes of Bond City and Corridor Creeper will be prominent near to the rail as well.
On the assumption that FUTB will start to struggle by halfway, I fancy Moorhouse Lad to get the rail, and have a fair chance of hanging on. He has run well from poor outside draws on the last two occasions, firstly at Epsom behind Cape Royal, and then at Thirsk when he led a furlong out until touched off by Magic Glade. He is due to go up 3 lb in future races. Of the options drawn high he has the best combination of rating, draw and speed, for me. I am sceptical of Green Manalishi’s improvement. He looked great when winning smoothly at Newbury with something in hand, but was put up 7 lb for that. It was an early season sprint in which most of the runners were having their seasonal debut and it is possible that few of them were in form at that time. Perhaps I am wrong but I have always tended towards high drawn front runners over 5f at Epsom.
Selection - Moorhouse Lad at 11/1 generally
Post Mortem
Merlin’s Dancer was bought for the day by Soccer AM presenter Helen Chamberlain. Entering into the spirit of the occasion he leaped out of the stalls, crossed in front of the field to the stand rail, and led from stall 5. Well I hadn’t reckoned on that. It did make the race a little more pacey and messed up my idea that Moorhouse Lad could race front rank on the rail. Whatever, Moorhouse Lad ran a terrific race, led for the last 1 1/2 furlongs and looked the likely winner until Hogmaneigh swooped late. The fact that a hold up horse won and that Caribbean Coral was also flying at the death tells you that the pace was just a little too fast. What is actually happening is that the leaders are stopping in front. Ignore commentators when they say a horse has quickened in this sort of race. Think of a human 400 metres race where the runners go fastish for 200 metres, try to quicken into or off the bend and then hang on as best they can for the final 50 metres, slowing down all the time. That is what is happening in a sprint horse race.
Green Manalishi ran a super race, top weight just anchoring him in the final 100 yds, after he had looked a danger. Holbeck Ghyll looked close to his best making good headway on the outside into 4th.
Saturday 2nd June - 5.40 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
For me a highlight of the season. Always a superb sprint handicap where the draw, pace and pattern of the race give you a good chance of finding the winner. A low draw and a good lead have been important advantages in recent years. A fresh strip of ground is opened up for the Derby and so the far rail is the place to be. However it is a long straight with an uphill finish, so it is tough for a front runner to last home.
Dandy Nicholls has a tremendous record in this. Over the years he has targetted the race along with the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups, the Stewards Cup consolation race and the Vodaphone Dash. In the last eight years horses trained by Dandy have won five and he has had eight others placed in the first four. He had six runners in 2004, five in 2005, five in 2006 and has five entries tomorrow. When there have been two drawn low, team tactics have been very effective. Onlytime Will Tell set up Loyal Tycoon in 2003 and Banjo Bay gave a good lead to Native Title in 2004. Indian Trail and Ice Planet are drawn 2 and 3, but apparently Ice Planet will not take part?
There is a fair amout of early pace in the race, but you could not be sure which horse(s) will lead. There is Lucayos, but he is drawn very high, Tournedos likewise, Commando Scott who you would think would not have the speed to lead this, Idle Power (led last year), Lethal, Beaver Patrol (won last year, tracked leaders) and Guto (led 5f race last but no blinkers this time). Indian Trail has first time headgear.
Selection tomorrow.
Update 9am
The first six in last years race take each other on again. There is one who stands out on that form. Prince Namid came with a storming run down the outside to only fail by a neck. He was running off a mark of 90, and went on to run a good 3rd at York off 93 on ground that was too fast. Today he gets in off 85, whilst Beaver Patrol last years winner is up 3 lbs, so a 8 lb turnaround. Last years race was run on going on the fast side of Good, whereas Prince Namid has always been considered best with give, which he will get today. He looks to have been brought along nicely for this race, running an eyecatching 4th last time, over a too sharp 5f at York behind Terentia. On top of all that he has the plumb 1 draw today. He is not usually a fast starter, and there is just a chance that he will get stuck on the inside 2f out, but better to have the advantage of the draw than not. He can race prominently, which he did when he won 5f races at Beverley and Haydock last year.
There is nothing in the race which can compare with Prince Namid’s form chance. Beaver Patrol, Bahamian Pirate, Pacific Pride and Indian Trail (in first time blinkers) will have their supporters, but they all have plenty to find on my ratings.
Unfortunately a lot of people agree so the price is skinny.
Selection - Prince Namid at 9/2 (Betfred)
Idle Power goes well on downhill tracks, particularly Goodwood but he ran two nice races at Epsom last year off a 3 lb higher mark, finishing 4th in this race and 2nd in another. He could well race front rank and finish in the first few so appeals as a place chance at 25/1. This is not a selection though.
Post Mortem
Song of Passion put up a performance of Listed or Group 3 (Fillies) class in winning this clear, 4+ lengths back to the 3rd. She was immediately in the best position; she was ridden clear approaching the final furlong and her win was never in any doubt. This trip and track are probably ideal for her and the jury would be out as to whether she can run to this level in different conditions. Prince Namid ran an excellent race, stuck on the rails 2f out and having to switch around several horses to get a run, whilst the winner flew clear. It did not make a difference to the result.
Indian Trail was the hard luck story. In first time visor he was making eye catching progress up the far rail to the heels of the leader 2f out when he tried to force a gap on the rail and was badly hampered. It is impossible to say where he might have finished with a clear run but my guess is definitely placed, and probably 2nd or 3rd, i.e back to his best. It is ironic that it was his stablemate Tournedos that put him out of the race when ‘team tactics’ have helped two of Dandy’s to victory in this race in the past.
The Week Ahead (3rd June).
Sun 3rd - 2.45 Chantilly - 5f Group 2
Mon 4th - 3.40 Naas - 5f Listed
- 7.30 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.00 Windsor - 6f Listed
Tues 5th - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 6th - 7.40 Kempton - 5f All Weather Listed
- 7.50 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 7th - 3.55 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 6.50 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 8th - 2.55 Brighton - 5.3f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.40 Catterick - 6f Class 4 handicap
- 8.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 9th - Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap
- Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- Haydock - 6f Listed Fillies only
- Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Sun 10th - Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sunday 3rd June - 2.45 Chantilly - 5f Group 2
Moss Vale won this last year with one of the best 5f performances of the 2006 season. Todays field is considerably weaker. Presto Shinko and Patavellian will find this on the sharp side. Peace Offering is not in Moss Vale’s league. The best of the French is probably Beauty Is Truth, who was beaten by Peace Offering last time and on these terms there should be little between them again. The pace should be strong enough with Peace Offering, Beauty Is Truth and Blue Echo likely to be front rank. Moss Vale’s strength at 5f is his stamina, so the stronger the pace the better.
As Moss Vale raced at Sandown against Sierra Vista only 3 days ago the worry has to be that the Temple Stakes, and the Greenlands Stakes before that, will have taken the edge off him. Last year he won the Greenlands Stakes (6f) at The Curragh on heavy ground 8 days before this race, so he travels well and can take his races quickly.
11/4 is available in a few places and whilst below my normal 3/1 cut-off that price looks to be good value. The Racing Post tips Peace Offering and the coupling for betting purposes of horses in the same ownership will also muddy the betting waters. So 3/1 or better may become available with British bookmakers. Suggest that the PMU be avoided. There is no Betfair market on the race.
Selection - Moss Vale at 11/4 or better (Victor Chandler, Coral and William Hill)
Post Mortem
One major flaw in my analysis. The question of jockeyship. There is no way of knowing whether Moss Vale had recovered from the Temple Stakes the way he was ridden. Adrian’s lack of patience and composure is becoming chronic, and a liability for the stable. I think that was his 38th successive losing ride. I wrongly thought that his knowledge of the horse and confidence in him would be enough. But rather than take a lead from Peace Offering in the next stall, he bustled Moss Vale into the lead after 2f, going too fast too early, and that was that. Whether he would have beaten Beauty Is Truth is arguable. She definitely improved for a patient ride compared with her last front running effort against Peace Offering, and was quite impressive in the end, the stiffer track being more in her favour. Lesson learnt, avoid Adrian’s mounts at present.
Monday 4th June - 8.00 Windsor - 6f Listed
Borderlescott is an uncomplicated sprinter who stands a good chance in this Listed race. He jumps and runs, and that usually sees him in front (Ayr Gold Cup - first home of large stand side group) or in close touch (won Stewards Cup). Only Baltic King (best carrying weight in strongly run handicaps) and Balthazaar’s Gift (Golden Jubilee run only) have ratings better than Borderlescott and you would not expect either to produce their best tomorrow. Fayr Jag is a threat, and Assertive should not be too far away. However the race should pan out nicely for Borderlescott. Fayr Jag is the only one who might contest the lead and he is drawn wide.
The only problem is that the Racing Post has tipped Borderlescott and have him at 2/1 in their betting forecast. So the chances of him meeting our minimum price criteria are slim.
Selection - Borderlescott should he become available at 3/1 or thereabouts.
Post Mortem
Not a result to dwell on for long. Borderlescott was never better than 5/2 in the betting. Which was a relief as Seb Sanders got the tactics wrong and he spent the whole race locked away on the rails behind the winner Assertive. On a horse like Borderlescott who front runs so naturally and easily holding him up was not a good idea. Ok he ran fresh at Haydock, but that was his seasonal debut. Something impressed in the paddock and ran a good race after 13 months off the track. Bygone Days gave 7 lb all round and was not beaten far, and Balthazaar’s Gift is on the way back. Baltic King ran his usual Listed type race, never getting into it. I really hope that Pinpoint is not the same type.
Monday 4th June - 3.40 Naas - 5f Listed
A cracking 5f sprint featuring Desert Lord (Vodaphone Dash and Prix L’Abbaye winner), Dandy Man (Palace House winner 2006, and unlucky in the King’s Stand?), Tax Free (Palace House winner 2007) and Osterhase (prolific winner in Ireland). There would not be much between Desert Lord and Dandy Man on ratings, but Desert Lord concedes 4 lb and is having his seasonal debut. The going is described as Good, but is probably on the slow side after plenty of rain. This is a worry for Dandy Man’s supporters. Tax Free’s optimum distance is 6f, and he has something to find at the weights. Adrian rides! Osterhase won this race last year but ideally the going would be quicker.
The pace is likely to be quick because Desert Lord and Osterhase are natural front runners. Dandy Man is the most likely winner, but examination of the times of the first two races at Naas is essential for a guide as to the actual going. Dandy Man is a very short price and will go for a walk in the market if the going is regarded as Yielding (Good/Soft).
No bet.
Post Mortem
It had to happen ! Adrian rode a patient race following Desert Lord and outstayed Dandy Man, who travelled well but was always looking for cover as Desert Lord edged away from him. Tax Free went very sweetly considering the pace. Well done Adrian and Dandy. Pass the humble pie, please.
Tuesday 5th June - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
This race has the feel of a midsummer handicap with a smallish field and seven of the nine runners in good form. The place to be today will be behind the leaders on the stand rail. A narrow strip down the stand rail is best because of soil compaction, better drainage than in the centre of the course and possibly the Ripon undulations are not so pronounced near the rail. There is a headwind today so leading may not be such a good idea. If you think about the peleton in the Tour De France where riders in the centre of the pack are said to expend 40% less effort than those on the front end, slipstreaming in horse racing at 40 mph must be a factor.
The likely front runners are My Gacho, Lake Chini, Steel Blue and possibly Charles Darwin. Lake Chini and Steel Blue seem at their best on easy ground, so are probably best avoided today. Desert Commander has been in poor form and the first time blinkers look like a sign of desperation; but who knows what effect they will have on him. Statistically, backing horses in first time blinkers is not a great idea, though some stables are good with them. Lake Chini, Gallery Girl and Trojan Flight have the worst draws. Countdown who has been the subject of some market interest has the plumb draw and is stepping down to 6f after racing a little freely from an outside draw at Newmarket over 7f. He is interesting but 6f on fast ground would probably not be ideal, though he could pick up the pieces if they go too fast. If you could be sure that Charles Darwin would be tucked in and find his way onto the rail, he would have good chances.
There is too much guesswork involved in this one, on top of all the random factors which afflict sprints, so no selection.
Post Mortem
Desert Commander took to blinkers well. He travelled comfortably in them, found his way into the perfect position tracking the leaders on the rail and went through a narrow gap to challenge as the front runners tired. Other than the doubt about how well Desert Commander would go in blinkers the race went very much as expected. Countdown was the unlucky horse as he was denied a run up the rail on a couple of occasions and had to switch outside to make ground too late. However it would probably be a mistake to back him next time on this account. The best place to be was towards the back and on the rail. So he had the advantage this time.
In this race last year Desert Commander impressed and looked like he might go on to win again. Perhaps with blinkers he will in 2007. The front runners - Charles Darwin, Steel Blue, Lakle Chini and My Gacho should be forgiven the run, It was not a day to be front rank. All four should figure soon when they have their optimum conditions.
Wednesday 6th June - 7.40 Kempton - 5f Listed (Polytrack)
The Kempton 5f course has a tight bend close to the start. A high draw and early speed are a big help, though the dash for the bend and flat out sprint for home can lead to the front runners emptying out in the final furlong. There is a larger than normal spread of ability in this race, so perhaps the race will also be spread out, thereby helping the closers?
Empress Jain (drawn 12) and Classic Encounter (drawn 4) are the most likely front runners. Border Music, despite his extraordinarily smooth 6f front running at Salisbury, is likely to find the test too sharp, along with Intoxicating, and possibly Baron’s Pit. On ratings the most obvious contenders are Intrepid Jack, Empress Jain, Biniou, Baron’s Pit and Elhamri.
With any luck there should be a range of theories about how this race will be run, and therefore candidates for the win put forward. In which case a ‘backable’ selection could follow. Update am tomorrow.
Update 10.45am
Intrepid Jack is the most likely winner. Although best at 6f, he ran two excellent 5f All Weather races in October, firstly when second to Texas Gold at Lingfield (would have been closer with a clear run) and then at Wolverhampton. He seems to have enough speed to get into a reasonable mid div position and then cut the leaders down. Unfortunately the market has not been sidetracked by other possibilities such as Empress Jain making all, Baron’s Pit and Biniou finding their old form, Border Music optimists or Rowe Park continuing his rapid rise up the grades. So Intrepid Jack is trading at 11/4, with little sign at this stage that he will drift at all.
The chances of something going wrong in this race are quite high so even 3/1 would not be a very attractive price. I will be hoping for 7/2 or 4/1 at some stage. With the knowledge that Intrepid Jack may cruise to victory unbacked -
Selection - Intrepid Jack at not less than 7/2.
Post Mortem
Intrepid Jack should have cruised to victory (unbacked) but early interference by the winner left him at the very back with too much to do. Dazed and Amazed got the key position on the rail tracking the front runners. He did well but you can tear up the result as far as being a guide for future races on the turf are concerned. Intrepid Jack avoids a penalty for the Wokingham and is one for the short list. He is well handicapped and suited by a fast pace stiff six furlongs, but there may be even better handicapped runners in that race. I expect that several horses who have chances in the Wokingham will be running this Saturday.
Thursday 7th June - 6.50 Sandown - Class 4 Handicap
If the Clerk of the Course does not mess about with a false rail there may be a bet in this race. However the high draw advantage is not as pronounced when there is a sound surface. Also in tomorrows race the two most obvious front runners, Azygous and Bertoliver are drawn wide. Bold Minstrel and Overwing can also force the pace but there is a lack of early pace in the high numbers. The most likely consequence is that the quicker lower drawn horses will make for the far rail crossing in front of the field, tightening things up. So the eyecatching unlucky runners last time, Holbeck Ghyll and Efistorm could find trouble again. It may be a good time to oppose them?
Update 2.30pm
On the formbook Holbeck Ghyll is just about the most likely winner of this race. Since he impressed at Goodwood last August he has been the subject of market interest every time apart from last week. I backed him for a place on Betfair for the Vodaphone Dash and he squeaked into 4th place despite being 2 lb out of the handicap. He found a bit of trouble in the race and finished well, but he was not unlucky, and he would not have won in another 1/2f. The problem with Holbeck Ghyll is that he is headstrong and a bit of a handful to settle and get on an even keel early. He can race prominently (won at Goodwood) or be held up (at Epsom and Goodwood this year). If raced prominently today he will probably not last home. This happened at Thirsk when the pace was on the far side and he raced freely down the stand rail. He is 2/1 which is too short in the circumstances.
5f handicaps at Sandown are all about pace, position and luck in running. In this race it is set up to be quite quick; because there are 3 or 4 front runners and, I think, they will want to get across to the far rail as quickly as possible. If I am wrong about this disregard this analysis entirely. If correct a hold up horse with a high draw will be best, but there will be trouble on the rail and luck in running will be required. So this is not a race in which to take a short price. Royal Challenge is arguably best at 6f, but he has a good record at Sandown. One win and two 2nds from three runs. The stiff uphill finish suits him. He is back on his highest winning mark after two races at Beverley and a mediocre effort at York. The Beverley runs were as good as could be expected from the low draws and rides given. He was backed at long odds for the York race. The fall in handicap mark, 13 draw, and liking for the track encourage me at the odds.
Selection - Royal Challenge 12/1 (BetDirect/Better)
Post Mortem
Well I hope you disregarded the analysis entirely. Rather than contest the lead the other front runners allowed 3YO Bertoliver to go on; to track right across to the far rail from stall 1 and to make all, just. The pace quickened from halfway. Needless to say this put all the hold up horses at a disadvantage and they did not get into it. Phantom Whisper, who was well backed at early prices, almost cut the leader down, being one of the few runners in touch with the leader through the race. Holbeck Ghyll started slowly, spent most of the race at the back and never got close. He needs an experienced jockey, preferrably one who knows him well. Efistorm ran a good race making up lots of ground on the wide outside from an unpromising position. Bertoliver showed terrific early speed and will be very interesting if returned to 3YO company over a sharper 5f. He appears to be improving.
Saturday 9th June - 3.45 Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap
I have found the Scottish Sprint Cup a difficult race to predict in the past. In the seven runnings four front runners and three chasers/hold up horses have won. The winning draws were 9,2,12,1,1,3,12. As usual it is better to be close to the stand rail at Musselburgh over 5f. But surprisingly all three chasers/hold up horses were drawn low and squeezed through , whereas it was front runners that won from 9,12 and 12.
Pricewise have gone for The Tatling and Aegean Dancer. Both of these are on my short list but not at the top of it. The Tatling takes some knowing, and steering, but an apprentice is due to ride. Aegean Dancer impressed me from a bad draw at Beverley, I thought he was improving, but then he ran below par at Thirsk. I could not find a good reason for the Thirsk run. Royston Ffrench takes over the ride from an apprentice which may make a difference?
Update
After going round in circles three horses now interest me most in this. Handsome Cross (11/1), Tournedos (12/1) and The Tatling (7/1). Handsome Cross won this last year, he was second off this handicap mark at Ayr and has Silvestre back on. Most encouragingly he is drawn in 2. Silvestre will not blast off in front, but if something is going faster he will take a lead, as last year, and hope to finish.
Tournedos has been coming down the handicap, ran well from an awful draw at Chester (he goes well there) and led the 6f handicap at Epsom on Derby Day staying on better than expected, so is in good heart. A sharp 5f is ideal and back to form Adrian (3 winners in last few days) has chosen him. If he had a choice? Drawn 14 is not good but on old form he has an excellent chance. This looks like a plan coming together.
It is difficult to know exactly how much ability The Tatling retains at 10 years old but if you could be sure he was in the same form as a year ago he would be a very hot favourite. If a hold up horse is going to win this then The Tatling is by some way the most likely. River Falcon is the other one if he can burrow a way past Handsome Cross on the rail.
It is difficult to choose between them but I like Silvestre’s jockeyship and where Handsome Cross is drawn best.
Selection - Handsome Cross at 11/1 generally.
Post Mortem
Aegean Dancer delivered on the promise of his Beverley run. If only I hadn’t gone to Thirsk.
Fullandby put in cracking effort over an inadequate 5f, from a low draw. As everyone knows this horse needs 6f and easy ground. So it takes placing of breathtaking incompetence for his trainer to have run him twice at 5f, once over 6f on fast ground and once over 7f. If it came up soft in the Wokingham Fullandby would have an excellent chance.
The Tatling needs the cool confident handling of a Daryll Holland or Ryan Moore. The apprentice got him in daylight and involved in the race far too early. Tournedos fly jumped out of the stalls and effectively left his chance there.
Fantasy Believer normally starts winning at the end of June/beginning of July each season from marks in the 80s. This year he is running into form but he is still on a handicap mark of 99. It is going to be difficult for the old fella in 2007.
Saturday 9th June - 2.45 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
This consolation race for the Scottish Sprint Cup is weaker than last years running with the highest rated horse on 80. It is therefore no better than an average Class 4.
Forgive Whinhill House his poor run at Catterick, he raced well off the favoured far rail, and he looks to have an excellent ratings chance and he has the plumb 1 draw. He may go down in a speed battle with Raccoon but is better value at 15/2 with william Hill.
Selection - Whinhill House 15/2 (William Hill) and 7/1 generally.
Post Mortem
Having decided to wait for this race to be run to see what draw advantage there may be in the Sprint Cup, I then undid all the shrewd thinking and made a complete fool of myself by opting for low drawn horses in both. Bad Move. The first three raced widest in the centre of the track.
Whinhill House did not even win the low draw speed duel with Raccoon. Blazing Heights should be winning soon, if he can get into a fast run 5f where he is covered up until late. Milton Bradley seems to be getting Puskas foot problem solved and he is running into some promising form.
Saturday 9th June - 2.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
I was looking forward to this one but it has turned out to be a race for the guessers. We do not have answers to the following questions :-
1. How good is Utmost Respect?
2. Will he be in form on his seasonal debut?
3. Is he best on easy ground?
4. How good will Cape be this season?
5. Does she need give in the ground to produce her best?
As one of these two seems the most likely winner any analysis of the race leaves big gaps.
Utmost Respect is probably very good indeed. After a 7 length win in his Maiden, he went on to beat Aahayson on Ayr Silver Cup day. Aahayson is very useful and the time was quicker than for the Silver Cup. The form, backed up by the timefigure, looks rock solid. So winning a race like this handicap at Goodwood looks distinctly possible off a mark of 90. You would have thought that an unbeaten horse would be tuned up for his 3YO seasonal debut. The early betting could be an indication, or a red herring.
Cape’s first handicap win at Newmarket was very impressive. It looked like she would never get a run, but when a gap eventually appeared she picked up surprisingly well to catch Stanley Goodspeed on the line. The visual impression of that win was memorable. She won again next time but without making anything like the same impression. The going for the first race was Soft, and for the second Good. So will she need give in the ground to show her very best?
Without those two Viking Spirit would be in with a chance. However he has been drawn 1 which is probably the worst place to be. On easy ground Greensleves would be interesting, but the going is Good at worst. There are several others which merit consideration, but in the circumstances time spent on this race is time wasted.
No Bet
Post Mortem
Cape was not at her best on this quicker ground. Nevertheless with a clear run she would have probably been placed. The winner raced widest and those drawn close to the stand rail mainly moved off of it, as soon as possible. Mujood raced closest to the rail and put up a creditable performance to finish 4th, in the circumstances. Dingaan proved himself for the first time at 6f and on turf. He lost two or three lengths at the start, was soon switched to the outside and came with a long steady run. Although it worked here I am not sure that his future lies in sprints.
Viking Spirit was stuck in a pocket with nowhere to go throughout the final 1 1/2 furlongs and would have won with a clear run imo. His Australian jockey opted to wait for a gap rather than switch him or try to force a way through. No doubt the draconian punishments for careless/dangerous riding in Oz had something to do with this choice. It was a shame for Viking Spirit and his owners because he deserves a win. His next race in the Wokingham will probably be just too difficult with several well handicapped bandits aimed at the big one.
Saturday 9th June - 3.10 Haydock - 6f Listed (Fillies only)
if she is on form Paradise Isle is very likely to win this. The trip, ground and draw are fine. She is not a filly who tolerates being crowded which is why she rarely runs a good race at 5f. At 6f she has the speed to stay front rank. The 14 draw will keep her on the outside, from where she can dominate or split off from the rest. On my ratings she has 8 lb or so in hand over Ripples Maid, who I think will win if Paradise Isle doesn’t. The price will almost certainly be below our 3/1 cut off.
Paradise Isle at 3/1 or bigger only.
Post Mortem
Paradise Isle ran well below form for no obvious reason. So it was a relief that she never got close to being a 3/1 chance. Cartimandua was an impressive winner, soon leading and going 4 lengths clear in the final furlong. Ripples Maid gave vain chase giving 12 lbs to the winner and can win again soon if not aimed too high. The other twelve runners will no doubt waste the season chasing a placing in a weak Listed race somewhere, because the breeding industry sets great store on something called black type. Most of them would have their work cut out winning a Class 4 Handicap.
The Week Ahead (10th June).
Sun 10th - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 11th - 3.15 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 4 Handicap All Weather 3YO only
- 8.05 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 12th - 8.15 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 13th - 7.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- Blackheath - 6.40 Hamilton - 6f Amateur Riders Handicap
- 9.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Thurs 14th - Blank
Fri 15th - York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 16th - York - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only
- York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- Sandown - 5f Listed 3YO only
- Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 17th - Salisbury - 6f Listed
- Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- Folkestone - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Sunday 10th June - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
The ground at Bath is really firm [11.1 Going Stick] which makes it worth looking at this race. Not many racehorses are capable of running to their very best on firm going. Also Bath is a track which suits certain horses. So trying to find course specialists who go well on firm seems to be one way into this race. High Ridge, Mine Behind and Summer Recluse are the only course winners. Who’s Winning and Fairfield Princess have also run well at Bath, Fairfield Princess is a doubtful stayer. All of the four go on firm. Who’s Winning is in good form but after two wins earlier in the season is now high in the handicap. The other three have been out of form, which may have been due to marking time as the handicap mark comes down. All three are now on ‘winning’ marks. Better a high draw than a low draw over 5.7 furlongs at Bath. High Ridge may get crowded and messed about, which wouldn’t suit him, drawn 3. This leaves us with Mine Behind and Summer Recluse. Milton Bradley’s horses usually need one run to get them them revved up so Summer Recluse, from 1 lb out of the handicap could spring a surprise.
Which is where my analysis comes to a shuddering halt. I could not make a selection on this basis.
Tuesday 12th June - 8.15 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Another 5f Chester special. Taking them in draw order, King’s College Boy has the plumb 1 stall. He is not in good form yet. Following a mediocre second at Yarmouth he did not give much encouragement at Musselburgh on Saturday in the Sprint Cup consolation race. His record suggests that he is not at his best until late June/July/August. His record at Chester is good. He will probably win off his current mark of 65, but it would be very optimistic to expect it tonight.
In stall 2 is Foxy Music, a 3YO who has shown a liking for Chester but seems high in the handicap for what it has achieved. In stall 3 is Jilly Why who on past form would have a chance. She is speedy but there is little encouragement in her three runs for her new stable so far this season. Stall 4 is to be occupied by Garstang who has been running over further and seems unlikely to be suited by 5f at Chester. Then in stalls 5 and 6 two with more solid recent form Canadian Danehill and Coconut Moon. Coconut Moon is suited by Chester and reliable, but she is also favourite at 7/2. Hoh Hoh Hoh has been backed, again, at early prices 11/1 > 7/1, but it is expecting a lot from stall 8. His runs over 6f of late suggest that 5f would be better, but the 5f runs I have seen show insufficient speed to get to the front, which seems essential for him. Not for me.
The combination of draw, recent form and running style does not throw up a good bet imo. I tried to convince myself that King’s College Boy would find enough form to catch the front runners, but couldn’t.
No bet.
Wenesday 13th June - 9.10 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
An interesting race which includes a number of horses who have caught the eye in the last few weeks. Rain is expected overnight and the amount that falls could have an important bearing on the outcome. Prince Namid, Kenmore and Balakiref want a substantial softening in conditions. Ingleby Arch and Dig Deep would be best suited by the going remaining as it is. If there is any significant rain I would expect the field to come down the centre avoiding the most worn ground. The old high draw advantage has seemed to be a thing of the past over the last year. There is a lack of front runners in the field. High Curragh and Sunrise Safari have front run in the past but neither did so last time.
Selection after the market settles down and an accurate weather update is available.
Update 12.00
Apparently 14 mm of rain fell at Hamilton overnight changing the ground to Good (Good/Firm). Last night the one that interested me most was Sunrise Safari. Last time he won a 5f race at Ayr going away, stays 6f and with the probable lack of pace in the race could get away from the field over on the far side. Now with the rain that seems less likely and Prince Namid comes more into consideration. But for Song Of Passion Prince Namid would have been a good winner at Epsom despite getting stopped in his run and having to switch sharply around several horses. He has been put up 2 lb for that. Without S of P to take the brunt of the handicappers medicine he would have gone up 6 lbs, so clearly did he beat the others.
Prince Namid is a 5/1 favourite with every bookmaker who has prices up. Balakiref has been withdrawn.
It looks like 11/2 may become available, perhaps with SportingOdds.
Prince Namid at 5/1 generally, but wait until late afternoon for 11/2.
Post Mortem
Prince Namid ran a lacklustre race for no apparent reason. Perhaps the ground was a shade quick for him, although he handled similar ground two races in succession, at the same time last year, at Epsom and York. He is in again at York on Friday. He is one of those horses that is difficult to predict and it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran a cracker tomorrow.
Silvestre rode a peach of a race on Machinist. He was high on my short list, but alas the rain came. Dig Deep is crying out for a return to a sharp 5f, pulling extremely hard early in the race. His antics could have put Prince Namid off? Countdown ran another eyecatching race for 7f or a very stiff 6f like Pontefract.
Friday 15th June - 4.35 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going at York is described as Soft, after well over an inch of rain in the last 72 hours. It is due to rain for much of the night and probably some more through the day. By race time it should be very soft, bordering on Heavy. So it is one of those races where the going will probably be the most important factor in finding the winner. With horse race form it is usually not possible to be dogmatic about whether a horse will go in extreme conditions. Sprinters run a lot and meet most conditions in their career. So for most older sprinters a picture builds up in which you can have a fair amount of confidence. Of course from time to time something wins a heavy ground race which everyone marked down as a fast ground horse. Lets hope that tomorrow isn’t one of those days.
In order these are my views on how likely these runners are to run their best on heavy ground :-
Cashel Mead
Green Park
Turn On The Style
Kay Two
Prince Namid
Mr Wolf
Mimi Mouse
Phantom Whisper
Wanchai Lad
River Kirov ? (not run on soft)
Pacific Pride
Tournedos
Inter Vision
Gallery Girl
Little Edward
Loch Verdi
Bo McGinty
Harry Up
Colorus
So the idea is to concentrate on the horses towards the top of the list taking into account all the usual things - ability, form, draw, trip, track, jockey etc.
It is probably a good thing to wait for the first race, a 5f 2YO maiden, to see just how soft the ground is and if there is any hint of a draw advantage. Waiting for the 4.00pm, a 6f 2YO Seller, may be a good idea too.
Update Friday am. Final selection possibly v.late.
Course Waterlogged - Meeting Abandoned
For what it is worth the Selection was to be Green Park. One of very few in the race who seems to be better on very soft ground.
Saturday 16th June
See below for selection.
The two 3YO races will be worth watching but not for betting on. Apart from anything else there is too little information on the horses ability on soft ground. Lots of rain here this morning and I am sure there must be at Sandown and Leicester as well. Once rain gets in the ground it does not take so much more to go from Good to Soft on most courses.
In the 4.10 at Sandown Chinalea, Puskas and Willhewiz were the three that interested me most. Chinlea should go well in the conditions, but I was disappointed that having put him top of my list, the Racing Post installed him favourite at a remarkably mean price of 9/2, since when he has shortened to 7/2. For a horse who has only won one race in a 33 start career, albeit a 5f soft ground handicap at Sandown, this is a very skinny price. The stiff 5f suits him much better than the 6f he has been running over but his form will have to improve to win this. He has Philip Robinson on board, which will help.
Puskas impressed at Musselburgh in the Sprint Cup consolation race and he should improve for the stiffer test today. Milton Bradley said that he had foot problems but is getting over them now, and some cut in the ground may be to his advantage. The jury is out on his Soft going ability though, and he is drifting in the betting. However there is just something about him that makes me think he could be one to follow in the future.
Wllhewiz is a contrast to Chinlea. In a 60 race career he has 9 wins and 10 seconds. A very good strike rate for a long serving sprinter. He is a 5f/6f horse who, for a front runner, goes well at stiff 5f tracks. His problem is more when trying to dominate on faster tracks where there are usually one or two quicker than him, and they force him to go too fast too early. Sandown suits his type and he has won there and on other stiff tracks too. In April 2006 he failed by only a head to make all at Bath on soft ground off a mark of 72. He runs off 64 today. The plumb draw on the far rail can be a potent weapon for 5f/6f front runners on soft ground as Sierra Vista showed in the Temple Stakes. Although today the rail is in 4 yds so there may be no friendly bias. Willhewiz has been knocking on the door. Maybe it will open today.
At this point of time (10.30 am) there are 3 non runners - Gold Express, Louphole and Matsunosuke.
Selection - Willhewiz at 8/1 (Betfred and SportingOdds)
Update 11.10 am - SportingOdds are going 9/1 now, and a further 1 point stake is recommended at that price.
Sunday 17th June - 3.20 Folkestone - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Cape dominates this race, and she is the most likely winner, but the market has gone mad making her an odds on favourute. She is as low as 4/5 with Coral !!
From what we know of Cape she is progressive and promises to be much better than her bare form on soft ground. In her two Newmarket races last year she was relatively ordinary on Good going after really impressing on Soft the time before. The going is Good (Good/Firm places) at Folkestone. If she had been very unlucky at Goodwood there would have been a case for a short price today, but my reading of the race was that with a clear run she was not certain to have won. The really unlucky horse in that race was Viking Spirit. So she is not a standout form selection on ground on the fast side of Good. The other problem with her today is that she is drawn 1 on the stand rail. She is a hold up horse and will probably be behind a wall of horses 2f out. Lucayos, Maltese Falcon, Idle Power, Keyaki and sometimes Pearly Wey are the front runners in the race, and although you can argue that there may be a lot of pace on, and therefore gaps should appear, I think it at least as likely that the front runners will be coming back to her as a group, and getting in her way.
There is not really anything that is particularly interesting as an alternative.
Personally I have laid Cape on Betfair, but that is not a Selection.
Sunday 17th June - 3.30 Salisbury - 6f Listed
This is one of the highlights of the sprint season so far. It brings together two of the most promising 3YO sprinters in a head to head. It would be fascinating even if that were all, but they are matched against five older sprinters who have a mass of big race wins between them. Patavellian (Bunbury Cup, Stewards Cup, Prix L’Abbaye-Group 1), Ashdown Express (Bentinck Stakes-Group 3, and 2nd and 3rd in July Cup), Pivotal Point (2xGroup 3 + Diadem-Group 2), The Trader (Group2, 2xGroup 3) and Presto Shinko (Ayr Gold Cup + Group 3). All this in a Salisbury Listed race.
It will be a race to savour. The going is Good/Firm and Good for the final 3 furlongs. Prime Defender is the short priced favourite at 5/4. His impressive Haydock win was given a compliment by Hoh Mike yesterday. Sakhee’s Secret is 5/2. I have no idea which of them is the better. Sakhee’s Secret was not so impressive last time on easy ground. On ratings I have him the better of the two, just. As usual the betting market is all about the ‘unexposed’ younger horses.
Patavellian looks to be some way below his former ability. He is a 9YO. Pivotal Point is good enough to win this but usually needs his seasonal debut before reaching his peak. Ashdown Express is never as good in these small field, modest pace races. The Trader seems at his very best over a stiff 5f on softer round these days. So if the older brigade are to foil the youngsters it is most likely to be Presto Shinko. He has been revving up for this with runs at 5f, whereas he needs a stiff 6f to show his best. In the circumstances his Palace House Stakes 4th was a tremendous run, and if he could summon a few pounds improvement over the stiff Salisbury 6f it would probably be enough. Since Newmarket he has had a pointless trip to Chantilly. Again over 5f. On the discouraging side, he was favourite in this race last year and finished only 4th. However that race was on very fast ground. He is a sporting bet at 8/1, and much better value than the 3YOs imho.
No selection.
Post Mortem
Wow !! Sakhee’s Secret was extremely impressive. It is always advisable to rate a race properly before proclaiming the merit of a performance but using Prime Defender and Presto Shinko (5 lbs below his best) as the yardstick I very much doubt whether there is a better 3YO sprinter in Britain. Indeed the best sprinter in the country at weight-for-age (7lb concession in mid June) will not be taking on the Aussies at Royal Ascot. Sakhee’s Secret was that good and his price for the July Cup has been cut from 10/1. Expect it to go shorter if the stable give any encouragement and the Aussies do not mop up at Ascot.
Ante Post Selection - Sakhee’s Secret in the July Cup 2pts @ 8/1
The Week Ahead (17th June).
Sun 17th - 3.30 Salisbury - 6f Listed
- 3.00 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.20 Folkestone - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Mon 18th - 8.05 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 19th - 3.05 Royal Ascot - 5f Group 2 King’s Stand Stakes
- 5.45 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 20th - 7.50 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.35 Kempton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- Blackheath - 4.00 Hamilton - 5f Claimer
Thurs 21st - Blank
Fri 22nd - 4.00 Redcar - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.10 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 23rd - 3.45 Royal Ascot - 6f Group 1 - Golden Jubilee Stakes
- 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Heritage Handicap - Wokingham Stakes
- 2.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.50 Newmarket - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.10Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.45 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 24th - 3.00 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tuesday 19th June - 3.05 Royal Ascot - King’s Stand Stakes
I keep reading articles telling me that the British and Irish sprinters are going to be stuffed by the Aussies at Royal Ascot. Some say that the Aussies will finish 1-2-3 in both races. The argument goes that Australian racing is sprint orientated, the very best horses often race in sprints, QED they are just superior. Choisir, Takeover Target and even Cape Of Good Hope are used to drive home the argument.
For as long as I can remember it has been fashionable to rubbish our sprinters . Even in vintage years eg 2003 we have been told by our media that the sprinters are a poor bunch and there is a crying need for some new stars. Nevertheless with only the occasional exception these maligned animals dominate Group sprinting in Europe picking up top prizes in France, Ireland and elsewhere whenever they can be bothered to get on a plane. As an example British sprinters have finished 1-2-3 in the Prix L’Abbaye (Group 1) for the last 4 years running. However when they travel long distances to Dubai (on dirt) or Hong Kong they usually perform abysmally. In Dubai it is the American dirt horses that rule. In the Far East the locals usually come out on top. Whether the problem is local conditions, heat, humidity, time zones and acclimatisation I don’t know. The trips to the Far East always seem to be ill prepared afterthoughts to me.
The perception of sprinters in this country is often that they are second division. Those that failed to stay a mile at 3YO or reverted to sprinting as an easier option, or proved not up to winning at the highest level at 2YO. The truth is that the majority of top sprinters are slower maturing animals who develop in physique at 4YO, 5YO and later and improve way beyond their modest form at 2YO and 3YO. There are dozens of examples, Reverence and Les Arcs, the best of 2006, are just two. However the handicapper and ratings providers usually rate sprint form at a lower level than mile and middle distance form. This is a subjective rather than an objective outcome. Nevertheless the majority of commentators on the sport accept it as fact and this defines their perception of sprints and British sprinters. When the computer rates British sprint form it comes out very well relative to other distances. Most years the computer rates the top sprinters right up there with the best mile and middle distance horses. In 2003 Oasis Dream and Choisir were well clear of the likes of Hawk Wing, Nayef, Falbrav and Dubai Destination !!
So are the Australian sprinters better than ours? Well Choisir, brilliant as he was, was not better than Oasis Dream. Takeover Target was on a similar level to Reverence and Les Arcs in England in 2006. The 2006 International Rankings say that Takeover Target was the equal best sprinter in the world in 2006, but there are seven British sprinters higher than the next best Aussie in those rankings. This maybe partly lack of opportunity but it does not support the contention that Aussie sprinters are in a different league.
Last year Takeover Target gave weight (5 lb Group 1 penalty) and a beating to the King’s Stand field from an unhelpful draw in stall 17. This year there are no penalties. He has had a three race run up to Royal Ascot, whereas he raced following a three month break last year. The build up suggests that he is probably as good as ever, although he was caught by Bentley Biscuit close home over 6f in the second of those races. I have seen the last half of that race and it seems to me that Takeover Target will be much more favoured by the Ascot 5f than will Bentley Biscuit. Magnus comes into the ‘not good enough so far but still improving’ category. Miss Andretti is the much touted favourite for the race. Whatever her admirable form, record times and spectacular racing style she comes out 5lb inferior to Takeover Target on Racing Post ratings and only level on Timeform ratings. She is said to be particularly suited by a turning track, has an iffy draw in 19, and the travel and acclimatisation are new experiences for her. So why is Takeover Target 6/1 and Miss Andretti 100/30 ?
The best of the European brigade on ratings are Dandy Man, Benbaun, Desert Lord, Moss Vale, Tax Free and Enticing.
Can any of these beat Takeover Target? Selection later.
Update
It looks to me that Takeover Target is 3 or 4 lbs superior to several rivals here. So nothing much has changed since last years race. Timeform has Tax Free top rated. You could only reach their rating by assuming that Dandy Man ran close to his best at Naas and Tax Free improved significantly on anything he had done before. Which seems unlikely on both counts. On Timeform ratings Miss Andretti and Enticing are also big threats. For me Racing Post ratings are likely to be a more accurate model. So what can stop Takeover Target other than all the usual things like an off-day, a rival improving a lot, bad luck in running etc. Well he seems best on fast ground, though Good is also OK. The Going Stick reading at 10.9 suggests ground on the fast side of Good on the straight track tomorrow. Heavy rain is probable, starting late afternoon or evening. Assuming no significant rain by 3.05 pm he should have his conditions.
Enticing improved out of all recognition at Bath, backed up by a very fast time. Confidence that she can reproduce, or improve on that tomorrow, must be low. On the evidence of a mere six runs the pattern which emerges is that the faster the ground the better she goes. You don’t get faster than Firm at Bath.
Desert Lord was on the upgrade through 2006 and further improvement is a possibility. It may be harder to make all tomorrow out in the wide open spaces of Ascot but I would not put it past him. Going back to the Racing Post Prix de L’Abbaye result analysis gives food for thought, including reference to him being the fastest horse in training (UK of course). Forget the result against Tax Free and Dandy Man at Naas as that looked like a prep race, and the easy ground would have been in Tax Free’s favour and against the other two. If the track proves to be riding on the fast side of Good then Dandy Man is also a danger. Many thought him unlucky last year, drawn on the far side and without a lead for long enough. The stalls are in the centre tomorrow so drawn 1 he will be four stalls width off the stand rail and may have a tricky first furlong getting covered up without losing ground?
Selection
Takeover Target 2pts at 6/1 (Ladbokes, Skybet, Blue Square, Totesport)
Post Mortem
Well the Aussie sprinters and Dandy Man put the home brigade to the sword. The market confidence in Miss Andretti proved very well justified. The list of her course record times one longer now. In truth the race could not have been set up better for her. Desert Lord was taken on by Moorhouse Lad, and drawn either side of her they set a very fast pace, chased by Magnus with Miss Andretti in his tow. Then Magnus took over pace making in the true tradition of an Athletics Grand Prix. It was set up for her but she had to have the speed to keep in touch. Meanwhile Dandy Man had the nightmare scenario on his side of the track, with the low drawn runners edging away from him into the centre and nothing quick enough to give him a lead. In the circumstances he has run a race every bit as good as the winner, reassuring those who picked him out as potentially the best European 5f horse after his 2006 Palace House win. He does need quick ground though and the ground was quicker than anyone expected.
The result is difficult to rate, as apparently few have run to previous ratings. I have Dandy Man at 4 lbs better than ever, and The Tatling and Moorhouse Lad a few pounds better than previous 2007 form. This though means that Enticing and Beauty Is Truth ran below the best shown in their recent wins. Most of the British horses ran a long way (10-14 lbs) below their ratings. This judgement looks in line with Racing Post timefigures and it will be interesting to see what ratings come out elsewhere. I have Miss Andretti on 127? which for a filly is excellent, and above average for the race, but not in the Choisir / Lochsong class.
From the moment I bet on and recommended Takeover Target I started to read downbeat reports about his chances in the King’s Stand. Along the lines that his trainer wondered whether he was quite as quick, and murmurs of a change of approach to the King’s Stand / Golden Jubilee double etc. He ran an OK race staying on well enough suggesting that predictions of a better run in Saturdays race may prove accurate. Of course this is the opposite of what we saw from him last year and when he was caught by Bentley Biscuit over 6f recently. Sigh !
With Reverence waiting for easy ground in a late summer/autumn campaign the home 5f contingent were not up to the task in the quick conditions. Desert Lord went too fast to last home. Enticing could not match her Bath form. Benbaun and Tax Free would have disappointed their supporters, though I think that Tax Free is better with some cut. Moss Vale needs time to find his feet in a race and this was not for him.
So the 2007 Aussies are much better than our 5f sprinters but lets see what happens in the Golden Jubilee and particularly the July Cup before we concede the sprint Ashes.
Friday 22nd June - 4.00 Redcar - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is now Good/Soft, Soft in places and the race has attracted several of the North’s SAS (Soft Appreciation Society). Turnkey, Sunderland Echo, King’s Gait and Kenmore all need Soft ground to show their best, and most of the others go on it too. Danum Dancer and possibly High Curragh are the only exceptions. The problem for the mud lovers is that Redcar has been drying out a bit and by post time it may no longer be the very soft ground they were looking for. The weather is key here and no selection will be made until the first two races have been run, at the earliest.
Saturday 23rd June - 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Golden Jubilee Stakes (Group 1)
There is little point in spending a lot of time on this race. If Miss Andretti runs to Tuesday’s form then she is odds on to win. The draw (16), trip and likely going are all suitable for her. The weather is expected to turn progressively nasty from dawn onwards on Friday, but it will take the best part of an inch of rain to change the going to Good. There may be enough rain getting into the most worn parts of the track to persuade the jockeys to seek fresher ground. Towards the end of Friday’s card we should have a better idea. I do not know much about the 3YOs. From what I know of the others the most likely front runners look to be Borderlescott (drawn 17), Takeover Target (10), Magnus? (21) and Red Clubs? (22). Amadeus Wolf (7) is likely to be prominent.
Of the British contingent I remain to be convinced that Amadeus Wolf is much better than last year, other than normal 3YO to 4YO improvement. His trainer says he is much better, but his Duke Of York Stakes win only required a performance similar to last years efforts and there did not appear to be a lot more there. We shall see. Asset seems to have convinced many people that he is a potential Group 1 winner. Personally I was not as impressed by his Abernant Stakes victory as most. To my eyes he was one paced from 1 1/2 furlongs out, and it was the other runners stopping, rather than him quickening, which made his winning margin look so good. Whilst most took the win as evidence of improvement dropping back in trip, I took his performance to suggest that a modest, or evenly, paced 6f would catch him out. Al Qasi will win a good race on soft ground. Red Clubs will run a good race from the outside 22 draw.
The first time visor is presumably intended to help Soldier’s Tale keep closer to the pace. For some time this horse has been thought to have the potential to win a Group One race, if he could only be kept sound and get the cut he needs. He was joint favourite for the 2005 July Cup. At six years old he has only had seven career starts so improvement on what he has achieved so far would be no surprise. The visor is a gamble.
Post Mortem
Soldiers Tale needs ease in the ground and a fairly testing 6f to be seen at his best, Whether he will get soft ground in the July Cup is doubtful, the way that course drains, unless of course the rain we are having goes on for another two weeks? He is unlikely to be risked on fast ground. Asset ran a tremendous race showing the speed to lie handy and stamina to be making ground all the way to the line. He impressed me but I still think that at least one or two will show enough speed to beat him at Newmarket. Takeover Target and Miss Andretti are returning to Australia, so the Aussie challenge for the July Cup will not be strong. With Sakhee’s Secret and Les Arcs joining the line-up the remaining Aussies should not get a look in. Amadeus Wolf had an off day at Ascot. As yet I have not seen any reason given for that.
I have 2pts Sakhee’s Secet at 8/1. Unfortunately 6/1 is the best available now.
Saturday 23rd June - 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Wokingham Handicap
There will be a selection. These big sprint handicaps are my favourite races of the year. A real puzzle to get your teeth into with the going and distribution of pace / draw critical factors to sort the wheat from the chaff.
Whilst I have only found the winner four times in the last 20 years the Wokingham has been a profitable race at the prices I backed them - Bel Byou (12/1), Nagida (16/1), Astrac (16/1) and Lafi (12/1). The amount of rain that falls tomorrow will decide from two I have in mind. This is the short list - Knot In Wood (12/1), Something (16/1), Beckermet (28/1), Ashdown Express (40/1), Zidane (5/1 generally), Out After Dark (25/1), Intrepid Jack (12/1) and Burning Incense (16/1). Limited rain will favour Something, Beckermet and Ashdown Express. More rain will favour Knot In Wood, Zidane, Intrepid Jack and Burning Incense.
The favourite Zidane was put up 11 lbs for his Ascot win in May. The winning distance was exaggerated by the conditions on the day. Most of the runners went too fast into a headwind and struggled in the final two furlongs. Apart from Come Out Fighting, who deserved lots of credit for staying on from a prominent position throughout, the first five were all tucked away and covered up at the back. So Zidane and Bahamian Pirate were flattered by the result imo. However Zidane is very progressive, just like his half-sisters, and if the going went on the easy side of Good I would still give him a good chance. At 5/1 (6/1 SportingOdds) he is too short though. So I will be looking elsewhere.
Update Friday 9.10am
As the rain is coming and the price is going.
Selection - Knot In Wood (12/1 with SportingOdds)
I expect Knot In Wood to start second favourite, maybe around the 8/1 mark. He is a horse who has shown relentless progress over the last two years winning his first race off 60 in May 2005. He improved all the way through 2006 and on the evidence of his seasonal debut at York over an inadequate 5f and gently ridden by an apprentice, he has not finished improving yet. There he ran a similar race to Hogmaneigh and Prince Namid, finishing alongside them.
Richard Fahey is following a pattern of running his 6f prospects over 5f, in preparation for the big ones. He has done the same with Fonthill Road and Wyatt Earp. Fonthill Road’s Ayr Gold Cup win demonstrated Fahey’s ability to get one ready for the big day. Knot In Wood looks to have been laid out for this race following York. He is flexible as regards tactics and is drawn 11. Blinkers are fitted for the first time.
For a while I favoured Something. He ran very promisingly in the Listed race at Windsor finishing alongside Borderlescott, just behind Assertive, horses who are in the Golden Jubilee. The Windsor race was run at a modest early pace, so the form is not necessarily all it seems, but on that evidence Something is leniently handicapped. Both times I have seen him he has impressed with his size, strength and conformation. I had him equal best of the runners at Windsor. He has always been highly regarded by his stable, running in the Jersey Stakes and two Group 2 races along the way. He needs fast ground and has run below par each time he has met Good/Soft ground.
Ashdown Express could be a danger in a race run at a furious pace on fast ground. For a horse who came a length third last year in the July Cup a rating of 105 is a lenient assessment. Of course in Listed and Group races he does not often get the very fast early pace and cover he needs to show his best, so to some he appears a perpetual under achiever. All he is looking for is his sort of race. Maybe it will be Saturday and he will do a Baltic King?
The best pace in the race is spread fairly evenly Merlin’s Dancer (26), One Putra (8), King’s Caprice (18), Ripples Maid (19), Grantley Adams (9), Corridor Creeper (5), Royal Storm (2), Saville Road (25), Beaver Patrol (3) and possibly Bentong (1). If they split into groups and some try the stand rail then that group may just have the midrace edge as there are several front runners and pressers there. Though the quickest of the front runners is usually Merlin’s Dancer, as per the Vodaphone Dash. Anyway the stand side runners will give Zidane a good tow. Knot In Wood is drawn close to One Putra, Grantley Adams and Out After Dark who should give a good lead and he will not be hassled by runners on his outside, Ashdown Express, Mutamared, The Tatling and Gift Horse. Something is drawn next to King’s Caprice and Ripples Maid, so guaranteed pace there too.
Knot In Wood goes on fast ground (won 3 times on Good/Firm), but there is a suspicion that he is at his very best with cut. This may just be that he was still improving in the Autumn. Anyway lots of rain at Ascot will do no harm.
Post Mortem
A high draw seemed essential to have any chance in this. The further horses were from the far side the worse they did. This was apparently nothing to do with pace as the middle group seemed to be in front for 4f. Some horses drawn in the highest numbers did better than they were entitled to do imo and I take the view that they were on a faster strip. So this needs to be borne in mind when considering future races. Having said that Dark Missile clearly improved. Previously she had not gone well on easy ground, but now we know she acts well on this type of loose surface. The claimers 5 lb allowance may be an important contributory factor. With some ‘point and go’ free running sprinters the claim is all bonus and she may be one of those. Something will be interesting on his preferred fast ground, perhaps in the Steward’s Cup if his trainer can avoid ruining his handicap mark, he will however be 2 lbs higher anyway. Balthazaar’s Gift will be 3 lb lower in future handicaps and will be hard to beat on a stiff track with a fast pace.
Three horses raced in the middle group and made up ground from a long way off the pace - Zidane, Grantley Adams and Burning Incense. Some may regard their performances as below par, but I think all three deserve plenty of credit and will be worth following in suitable conditions.
Knot In Wood reared a bit as the stall opened losing a length, ran quite freely through the race to be in touch at halfway, tried to challenge for the lead 1 1/2f out but struggled to get passed Baron’s Pit and was soon left behind by the far side, eventually fading, not knocked about late. I am not sure that the blinkers were a good idea.