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The Week Ahead (9th September)
Sun 9th - 3.55 York - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Mon 10th - 4.20 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 11th - 4.20 Leicester - 5f Class 4 Conditions Stakes
Wed 12th - 4.10 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Listed - Scarborough Stakes
Thurs 13th - 2.50 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Fri 14th - 2.50 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 15th - 2.40 Doncaster - 5.6f Heritage Handicap (0-110) - Portland Handicap
- 2.50 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.05 Curragh - 6f Group 3 - Renaissance Stakes
- 4.00 Chester - 6f Listed Fillies only
- 4.05 Goodwood - 6f Listed - Starlit Stakes
Sun 16th - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.20 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 10th - 4.20 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fast ground and the stand rail will be the best place to be. Though if recent events are anything to go by the Clerk of the Course will have moved the stalls without telling anyone and heavily watering the part of the track the Selection will race on. :-(
Most of these are very close on ratings so a Selection, if any, has to be based on draw and running style suiting the track, assuming peak form of course. I always think of the Folkestone 5f as suiting front runners against the stand rail, on fast ground.
The most likely front runners are Loch Verdi (8), Safari Mischief (9) and Bluebok (4), with Misaro (2) also close to the pace. Bluebok is the most likely to get the rail and therefore has a small advantage. He came back to form last time with a 2nd to Coconut Moon at Chester. It was a goodish run, though it was from a good draw and he had no chance with the winner. What it did show is that he is back in form after a quiet spell. Milton Bradley’s horses tend to drift in and out of form for no apparent reason and if Bluebok is to win it will be soon as he needs quick ground. He is on his last winning mark which was mid September last year.
You would think that Matsunosuke would ideally want a stiffer track. Malapropism has a first time visor, which seems like a sign of desperation? Texas Gold has dropped a long way in the handicap but taking a chance with him is perhaps best left to when he next races on a downhill track.
Loch Verdi is favourite, and is often well backed (there is something about those Lochsong colours) but her form suggests that she is just in the handicappers grip, and although this sharp 5f will be more in her favour the draw isn’t. Her best runs lately have been with William Buick’s claim, Norton rides today.
Selection - Bluebok @ 8/1 (Bet365, Sportingbet and Bet Direct)
Judged by what is happening on Betfair a longer price than 8/1 may well become available with the bookmakers at some point.
Update 1.30pm
All morning there were people on Betfair happy to lay 10/1 or 11/1 Bluebok. Which was nice. Then at midday for no apparent reason there was a rush of money for him and the price has shortened. The best you can get anywhere now is 13/2. The betting market never ceases to surprise.
Post Mortem
The groaning of Bluebok backers should have been audible on ATR as the apprentice failed to push the horse into front rank from a moderate but OK start. He only had to push him for a few strides to get a reasonable pitch, but no. For the rest of the race he was stuck in the pack unable to stride out, like Paula Radcliffe caught up in a crowd of joggers. The others all got in each others way and Francis Norton on Loch Verdi must have been surprised as he looked around to see he was clear and unchallenged. The only silver lining is that many will overestimate what Loch Verdi achieved and perhaps that will be helpful next time. Straws, at, clutching, reorder.
Tues 11th September - 4.20 Leicester - 5f Class 4 Conditions Stakes
Good/Firm (Firm in places) and only a five runner field. This time last year The Jobber broke the Leicester five furlongs Course Record with the assistance of the front running Cape Royal and If Paradise. He will be favourite to win this but whether Cape Royal or any of the others are as accommodating with the pace must be a matter of doubt. The Jobber has pulled ferociously in some races recently and may pull his chance away. At his best Bond City would give him lots to do; but Bond City hasn’t been at his best. He is in first time cheekpieces. Maybe it would be more to the point if he returned to his former trainer.
No Selection
Wed 12th September - 4.10 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
After the debacle of Haydocks overwatering and ficticious going description for last Saturday’s Group One sprint it will be advisable to wait and see what the ground is like from the times of the early races. It will probably have dried out to something like Good (Good/Firm) unless the fool of a Clerk of the Course has got his watering can out again. Probably there will be a selection.
Update
The going seems to be just on the fast side of Good. It is not the firm ground which Bluebok prefers. Elkhorn travels strongly, has to be produced late, and is the type to win by small margins and stay just ahead of the handicapper. He put in a stinker over 6f at Ripon behind Malcheek but if you forget that one the previous second at Newcastle was full of promise.
Selection - Elkhorn @ 6/1 (generally now)
Wed 12th September - 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Listed - Scarborough Stakes
Six of the nine are closely rated at the weights. The newly laid Doncaster straight is supposed to be as smooth as a baby’s bottom and if there is a draw bias there is no information in the public domain to tell us what it is. At the August meeting Golden Dixie and Geojimali were first and short head second on opposite sides of the track.
Plenty of pace here from Morinqua, Galeota and Peace Offering, and possibly Drayton as well. Front runners and hold up horses have won in fairly equal proportions in the Scarborough Stakes.
Update
Perfect Paula and Conquest do not look good enough on any known form. Morinqua has something to find but I think that she is closer to the favourites on form than official ratings would have us believe. She could spring a surprise and make all. They seem to be searching for Galeota’s best trip, 7f last time, now 5f. His form in 2007 would not be quite good enough. You would think that it may be a little sharp for Hogmaneigh unless they go very fast and come back to him as they did at Epsom. Pivotal’s Princess has had two poor runs in a row when she was expected to run well. Perhaps this is also on the sharp side for her, and she would prefer a stiffer track and easy ground ideally.
This leaves Peace Offering, Green Manalishi and Drayton. Of the three Drayton’s form in he Golden Jubilee reads best. He then led the July Cup for a long way, bombed out in first time eyeshields at Ascot, and had the worst draw at Chester where he raced wide in front rank having tried to get to the front. He is worth another chance in a race where he will not have to compete for the lead and can run his own race.
Selection @ Drayton @ 6/1 (Betfred)
Friday 14th September - 4.20 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Handicap
This race looks a bit of a nightmare but is probably not that competitive. The smooth surface at Doncaster seems to encourage a fast pace but the evidence so far suggests that horses coming from off the pace stand at least a sporting chance eg Golden Dixie/Geojimali last month and Ellens Academy yesterday. The race is set up a bit like the one at Musselburgh where Mr Wolf led, Harry Up took over and was caught late. Here the best pace is on the stand rail and we can expect Mr Wolf to try to make all and Harry Up to be on his tail. Next to them are Canadian Danehill, who was impressive from the front for Frankie at Sandown and Oranmore Castle who is usually in the firing line these days and is running well for Kevin Ryan. So there should be a very strong pace down the stand rail.
If Oranmore Castle takes his time chasing that pace he may be able to pick up the pieces. He is well handicapped, 3lb lower than the mark he won off in May, and due to go up again.
Inter Vision was a quick 2YO making all in two 5f races at Chester and one at Ripon. No doubt his trainer still remembers this but the betting public has long since forgotten even though he went close in a 5f Catterick handicap last October. If he was running over 6f at Ripon today, with a reasonable draw, he would be near enough favourite. However he is 20/1 with Sportingbet today. He has a fair centre draw and can chase some quick horses drawn around him - Kay Two, Gallery Girl, First Order and Fromsong - and maybe he will get there in time if they go very fast.
Canadian Danehill will find this a very different proposition from Sandown. There is little chance that he will be able to get front rank this time. I don’t know him that well but the cheekpieces are a clue that he does not like to be crowded. He displayed that aggression at Sandown that marks a sprinter who may run up a sequence but on balance his price of around 7/2 is not attractive to me because of the fast front runners drawn around him.
Harry Up has gone up 3lb which will make things that much more difficult.
These are the four that I think have the best chance. I have had some on Oranmore Castle at 11/2. He has been well backed this morning. But Inter Vision may be able to spring a surprise and at the prices is worth backing eachway.
Selection - Inter Vision @ 20/1 1pt each way (Sportingbet)
Sat 15th September - 2.40 Doncaster - 5.6f Heritage Handicap (0-110) - Portland Handicap
Fast conditions should be evident on Saturday with no draw advantage.
The Portland is a 6f race run at 5f pace, if you know what I mean. Because it is an intermediate distance it tends to attract some 5f front runners. This year there are King Orchisios, Tabaret and Judd Street. Yet it tends to be won by horses that are known more as 6f horses. Since Lochsong won 15 years ago only two front runners - Musical Season and Smokin Beau - have won. So the usual Portland winner is a 6f hold up horse or chaser.
Top of my ratings are Lipocco, Fantasy Believer and Gift Horse. Not far behind are River Falcon, Buachaill Dona, One More Round, Orpsie Boy and Qadar.
Lipocco is drawn near the stand rail and is likely to share the pace there with Tabaret. They should give a good tow to Fantasy Believer. In the centre Paradise Isle will probably try to race on her own giving a lead to Gift Horse. On the far side I expect King Orchisios to lead, possibly with Judd Street and Off The Record close up and Buachaill Dona, One More Round, Golden Dixie and Hoh Hoh Hoh will be trying to come from off the pace there.
Gift Horse has shown his very best with some ease in the ground. His last run was very eye catching as if a dress rehearsal for the Portland. However with Spencer not available the jockey booking is less than encouraging and maybe the plan is now the AGC?
Lipocco continues on the up and is a Listed class 3YO now. The trip should give him a fair chance of bucking the trend against front runners. As his tendency has been to just get caught over 6f, this trip could be regarded as his optimum.
Fantasy Believer won last years York version by 3 lengths from a 1lb lower mark. His fast finishing 2nd to Indian Trail at Sandown was very encouraging. A repeat of last years figures would make him very hard to beat and he is nicely drawn near fast pace horses. There is a probability of them racing in two or three groups which should give him plenty of space to challenge.
The market has a mature look about it now but I think that Fantasy Believer and Lipocco are still value at 8/1 and 12/1 respectively.
The Nigel Shields pair of One More Round and Qadar have a much better chance than their odds of 33/1 and 50/1 suggest. For instance Qadar gets a 12lb pull for the 2 length C/D beating by Golden Dixie in the August rehearsal. Qadar loses Ryan Moore’s help but gets Buick’s claim in compensation. In 11 attempts on turf he hasn’t won yet but that negative won’t last forever.
Selections - Fantasy Believer @ 8/1 (15/2 may be the best available now)
- Lipocco @ 12/1 (9/1 best available now)
Saturday 15th September - 2.50 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going should be on the fast side.
On 1st September Coconut Moon won at Chester so straightforwardly that you would think that is what she normally does, and with the 1 draw again she can repeat the dose. In fact she is not usually a fast starter and does not usually get to the front either. What Buick achieved two weeks ago Darley is unlikely to repeat. Circuit Dancer may be coming back to form and he has the 2 stall. His last win at Chester was a typical Adrian Nicholls take no prisoners effort from stall 1 which would be hard to repeat against some of the very fast horses in this race. In stall 3 is Peter Island who is one of the faster 5f handicappers around. Last time at Chester he got cannoned into by Cosmic Destiny coming out of the stalls and had to settle for a position near the back, making late headway. He is now reunited with Jim Crowley who has learnt how to get the best out of him. Methaaly from stall 4 and Merlins Dancer from stall 6 are the other main players. Merlins Dancer is as quick as anything around (led Vodaphone Dash from a poor draw) and Seb Sanders could beat all the others to the pass if he gets a good break.
Peter Island is the value in this race. He can either front run or chase Merlins Dancer, as he chased One Way Ticket down at Brighton. Jim Crowley by a process of trial and error has learnt what he can do and how fast to go.
It could all go wrong at the stalls, but he has as much chance of getting away on terms as either Coconut Moon or Circuit Dancer in my opinion. Merlin’s Dancer is the one I fear most. He is also lightning fast and top on ratings, but the draw may make him go too fast too early and that puts me off.
Selection - Peter Island @ 10/1 (Stan James and Betfred)
Update 10.15am
The horses drawn in stalls 4 and 5 have been withdrawn. This effectively puts Merlin’s Dancer in stall 4. Unless Coconut Moon or Circuit Dancer break very quickly you would expect either Peter Island or Merlin’s Dancer to be leading after a furlong, and unless they take each other on I expect one or the other to win. In the circumstances it is worth backing Merlin’s Dancer as well.
Selection - Merlin’s Dancer @ 6/1 after the withdrawals ( William Hill, Stan James, Skybet)
Saturday 15th September - 3.05 Curragh - 6f Group 3
This should be between the three British raiders, with not much between them. Benbaun has such an excellent record at The Curragh that he may go very short in the betting. If so then Prime Defender could become a value bet. Benbaun’s record at 5f is rather more convincing than his record at 6f and it is quite possible that Prime Defender will wear him down. Moss Vale has been disappointing this season and it is perhaps significant that Fallon has not chosen to ride him.
Update 10.30am
Benbaun is indeed a short priced favourite and Prime Defender a value bet at 11/2. I am not fully convinced that Benbaun is as good at 6f as 5f, though his Greenlands Stakes win in May was certainly visually impressive. Other than Moss Vale he did not have a lot to beat on the day and now we know that Moss Vale is not as good this season as he was last. Perhaps I have too much regard for Prime Defender but I think that he has every chance in this race and would be happy to back him at 4/1.
Selection - Prime Defender @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes, Sportingbet)
Saturday 15th September - 4.00 Chester - 6f Listed Fillies
Song Of Passion ran a stinker at Ponte. I do not know why. Blinkers are fitted for the first time so perhaps the trainer doesn’t know why either. I have her well clear on my ratings but could not back her in the circumstances.
Ripples Maid has the worst of the draw in stall 10. Perhaps the combination of her tactical speed and less than competitive field will enable her to get a reasonable position in the race despite the draw? Blue Echo is a natural front runner who is likely to lead from stall 2. The going will probably be on the fast side for her. Diamond Diva has a poor draw and Folga is in poor form. So I expect the winner to come from Song Of Passion, Ripples Maid or Blue Echo who each have problems to overcome.
I was teetering on the brink of recommending Ripples Maid at 3/1, but it goes against the grain to back the worst drawn horse at Chester and now after the withdrawal of Lady Grace the 3/1 has gone anyway.
No Selection
Saturday 15th September - 4.05 Goodwood - 6f Listed
This is a nice puzzle but small field Listed races at Goodwood would not be my favourite betting medium.
Presumably either Beckermet or Galeota will lead but there will probably not be a strong pace. So this may suit a 5f/6f speed horse best? On my ratings Galeota, Pivotal Point and Grantley Adams would have the best chance with Areyoutalkingtome a danger if matching his polytrack form on turf. Galeota will need to step up again on his win in the Scarborough Stakes, but a modest run 6f will be in his favour.
Aeroplane has been well backed overnight and might start favourite. Presumably this market interest is based on Aeroplane’s homework with Chapple-Hyam’s top sprinters? He will have to be something special to win this after a year off and stepping down in trip. His Timeform and Racing Post ratings are based on small field minor race form with slowish timefigures. Which is just about all I know about him, but he wouldn’t be on my short list.
I have Pivotal Point to thank for my biggest betting win, and he did it from stall 1 over 6f at Goodwood, the same as today. At 7YO he should be as good as ever, and his Salisbury seasonal debut behind Sakhee’s Secret was encouraging. Only two days later he ran in the King’s Stand where he was stuck in that low/centre ruck of British sprinters like Tax Free, Moss Vale and Benbaun who under performed as a bunch for no apparent reason. The three months off since then would worry me but Peter Makin is an excellent trainer of sprinters and Dettori, who has a good record on the horse, has been booked. However he looks to be aimed at the Diadem in two weeks time, and this may just be intended to put the final edge on him?
Grantley Adams is more of a 6f/7f horse who does well off a fast pace as he showed at Newmarket and in the Wokingham and Steward’s Cup.
I was expecting Galeota to be a warm favourite at 2/1 or under and to be selecting Pivotal Point, who I have backed at 7/1 on Betfair. However Aeroplane has made the market and Galeota is backable at 7/2.
Selection - Galeota @ 7/2 (Sportingbet, Stan James)
Pivotal Point is also of some interest at 13/2.
Sunday 16th September - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Going just on the fast side of Good.
Esteem Machine was impressive at Newmarket but whether this faster ground will suit him is unclear. He is a front runner and will not be left alone up front with the likes of Mujood, Mac Gille Eoin, Diane’s Choice and H Harrison in the race. At some point Ajigolo is going to get back to form. He is showing glimpses but has had chances before with near ideal conditions.
The favourite is too short in the betting for me and I have no particular confidence in those that come out best in my ratings Ajigolo and Mujood.
No Selection
Sunday 16th September - 5.20 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Very firm ground does not suit that many horses. The chances are they will not let themselves down on it, so evidence of good form on firm is an important consideration. Wide and late is the most successful tactic in 5.7f races at Bath. Presumably What Do You Know (huh!) will lead, or perhaps Misaro?
Texas Gold showed more life at Folkestone but I would prefer him on a downhill track. Little Edward has been going very well for George Baker but has Steve Drowne riding today. Holbeck Ghyll goes well on firm ground but has various ways of messing up. The race should suit Tony The Tap’s running style. He has to be played very late and his won twice, 2nd nine times in 34 runs says it all.
At the prices Tony The Tap is worth a chance.
Selection - Tony The Tap @ SP
The Week Ahead (16th September)
Sun 16th - 2.35 Goodwood - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.20 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 17th - 4.00 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.50 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 18th - 4.00 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.30 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.10 Yarmouth - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 4.40 Yarmouth - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 19th - Blank
Thurs 20th - 4.00 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Fri 21st - 2.55 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.40 Ayr - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Ayr Silver Cup
Sat 22nd - 3.30 Ayr - 6f Heritage Handicap (0-110+) - Ayr Gold Cup
- 3.45 Newbury - 5f Group 3 - Dubai World Trophy
- 3.20 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 23rd - 4.10 Hamilton - 5f Listed Fillies
- 4.40 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tuesday 18th September - Thirsk and Yarmouth
Four interesting sprints today. Unfortunately all with solid and relatively short priced favourites.
With small fields the puzzles are simplified and in each race one or two horses seem to stand out on form. So with the risk/reward equation stacked against us no selections.
At Thirsk the going is supposed to be very fast (Going Stick 10.8). Most Clerks of the Course seem to get obsessive watering syndrome when The Stick reaches 9.0 but they are made of sterner stuff in North Yorks, or just begrudge pouring money down the drain.
With Inter Vision doing me a massive favour at Donny and now with optimum conditions and the plumb rails draw it would be difficult to desert him in the 4.00. He also has every prospect of a nice strong pace with Fire Up The Band, My Gacho, Guto and Dakota Rain all liking to force it. Romany Nights is a hold up horse drawn close to the rail that could also prosper in the circumstances.
Two 3YOs with a future in the 4.30. Ishetoo was visually impressive over course and distance in August, completely on top late in the race. Valery Borzov also looks very useful with more to come. It would be hard to oppose Ishetoo.
At Yarmouth they usually overwater, so really fast ground is a rarity unless there is a heatwave.
The 4.10 appears to be a Greek Renaissance v Something match. Something is best on ratings with me, and will be favoured even more if it really is Good/Firm. He has been pretty consistent through the summer and is an uncomplicated horse who is usually found making, or close to, the pace. Greek Renaissance has been off since Dubai in the winter but you expect Goldolphin horses to be close to 100% in such circumstances. Something for me but not backable at the likely prices.
Canadian Danehill went close at Donny where the front three were clear. Everything looks right for him today in the 4.40. He should get a nice pace from Angus Newz, Corridor Creeper and possibly Mr Lambros, but Sandown showed he can make his own running. Dig Deep and Tony The Tap (poor ride by Eddie Ahern at Bath) are hold up threats, but CD will be hard to deny in current form, until reassessed.
Cumulative Results
Now that the Blog is in profit again ( just) I have updated the Cumulative Results page.
It was a big relief when the epic losing run finally ended, and then more so when Inter Vision brought the Blog back into profit. 30 successive losers is bad enough but the run went on for nearly 7 weeks which can get wearing. On a bad run it is best not to dwell too much on the gory details. Hence the cumulative results table was not updated for a while. Looking back I have to admit that some of the selections were not the best, though all but a few shortened in the betting. I cannot claim particularly bad luck either. Of the thirty I would only count Knot In Wood in the Steward’s Cup as a horse who should have won given average luck.
It is the nature of the beast that losing runs and the occasional winning streak happen with no apparent change of method or application. Hopefully the final weeks of the betting season will prove successful. Apart from May, October has been my most successful month over the years. This is probably because of changes in going, which throw many punters haywire but suit specialisation and a depth of knowledge of the horses. It is intended that the Blog continues until Newmarket on 20th October. Sprint form gets increasingly unreliable in late October and November, as stables wind down, handicap marks get massaged and horses you never thought would go in the soft suddenly prove you wrong. For now there is still plenty to play for, not least with the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups this weekend. Work starts on them now with a selection on the Gold Cup soon after the draw is known..
Thursday 20th September - 4.00 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Firm going description, though they have watered, and now there is some Good/Firm, plus they had a splash of rain overnight and may have some more. In other words it won’t be firm.
A field of mainly 3YO and 4YO fillies, some who have been running over further and some in lower grade. I know very little about most of them. An hour or two watching videos would be an option but the time is better spent on the Gold and Silver Cups. However judged from the Newmarket video shown on RUK the favourite could be tapped for toe over 6f imo.
No Selection
Friday 21st September - 4.40 Ayr - 6f Class 2 Handicap - Ayr Silver Cup
The Ayr Silver Cup is a high standard race in its own right this year. More rain has fallen than was expected and there will be more again tomorrow, so horses that appreciate plenty of give will be favoured. We may also see most of the field coming down the centre to avoid the worst of the opened up ground. Coincidently the best pace should be down the centre with Mr Wolf (drawn 12), Coleorton Dancer (10) and Northern Dare (16) amongst the front runners. Handily drawn behind these is Utmost Respect. A dual winner at 2YO, he was then an eyecatcher in the Dingaan/Cape/Viking Spirit race at Goodwood. Following this he was a gambled on favourite for the William Hill Sprint at the York meeting that was abandoned. Then his latest run saw a fast finishing 3rd behind Shmookh and Off The Record in a high class 3YO handicap at Newmarket where conditions were too fast for him. He comes to the Ayr Silver Cup off a 10 week break. Although the price will be short for a race like the Ayr Silver Cup he is not to be missed.
Selection - Utmost Respect @ 5/1 (PaddyPower, Stan James)
Already 6/1 has gone and I anticipate that 4/1 may be the best available early tomorrow.
Update
Pricewise have put up Utmost Respect 2 pts at an entirely ficticious 7/1 with Corals. Supposedly 6/1 is also available with one or two firms this morning. I imagine that only the cleaners got those prices for a few quid. 4/1 will be available but it will shorten further. Below 4/1 is getting very short for a 28 runner handicap. Without Utmost Respect in the race Gift Horse would be very popular. The mudlarks like Coleorton Dancer and Commando Scott could be dangerous if it goes very soft. Then there are other improving 3YOs like Northern Fling, Sundae, Northern Dare and Makshoof. Last years winner Geojimali is still well handicapped only 2lb higher than for his narrow defeat at Doncaster, and there are one or two like Out After Dark who are well in on old form.
I did consider a second bet on Gift Horse, and it is tempting to have Dandy on your side in the Ayr Silver Cup, but he has at least three in with a chance and not much between them on my ratings, though Gift Horse is way out ahead with Timeform.
Friday 21st September - 2.55 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
A 20 runner 5f handicap on soft ground. This one is too tough for me, with lots of horses in the lower half of the handicap I do not know well enough. Godfrey Street off 83 could spring a surprise. A Flying Childers winner admittedly from a weak field in soft ground, he has his ideal conditions and is 3lb lower than when beaten a neck in a Class 2 at Ascot last October. Now with Kevin Ryan he will be aimed at an Autumn campaign and at 20/1 is one for the optimists.
Morning update
There have been 5 withdrawals but the race does not look much easier. The effect of the withdrawals is to make use of the far side less likely. It should be a good test of stand side versus centre though.
No Selection
Saturday 22nd September - 3.30 Ayr - 6f Heritage Handicap - Ayr Gold Cup
The Selections are
Knot In Wood @ 9/1 with Totesport (8/1 generally)
Grantley Adams @ 28/1 with Stan James
Neither price is likely to last long. Totesport actually lengthened Knot In Wood’s odds, out from 8/1 to 9/1, on the dubious logic that all the best pace is on the stand side. In actual fact King Orchisios and Patavellian on the far side are likely to set just as fast a pace as Borderlescott and Majestic Times on the stand side. Borderlescott rarely blasts off from the stalls but tends to wind it up after a couple of furlongs. Majestic Times led the stand side in the 2005 AGC but has not been in that sort of form this year. I would expect the only other prominent runner Beaver Patrol to move across to whichever side looks best unless the middle runners go well in the Silver Cup.
Richard Fahey is a shrewd operator and chose the far side without any hesitation when Knot In Wood and Fonthill Road were drawn out of the hat early. His reasoning being that without any watering this year the two sides start the meeting level but any rain that falls will get into the stand side ground quicker than the far side which will get less wear, especially the first two furlongs. The easy ground will suit Knot In Wood ideally. He was unlucky in the Steward’s Cup, which he would have won without the fatal hesitation of the high drawn horses before they moved across to join the low/middle group several lengths down. Jamie Moriarty, who rode him to win the Scottish Steward’s Cup so impressively, is back on him claiming 3lb. He has a tougher task now from 5lb higher, especially with Grantley Adams, 9lbs for 3 1/2 lengths.
Grantley Adams has run well in the major sprint handicaps. 3rd at Newmarket behind Beaver Patrol (he is now 12lb better off), 5th in the Wokingham from a poor draw, a bit too keen in the Bunbury Cup, staying on well from too far back in the Steward’s Cup, impossible draw in the Great St Wilfred, and lastly 3rd to Beckermet and Galeota in the Listed race at Goodwood where the modest pace would have been against him. Back in a strong pace big field handicap will suit him ideally and he has Daryll Holland booked, which is a plus. Holland has already won two Ayr Gold Cups. Grantley Adams is drawn close to Borderlescott and Majestic Times so should get a good tow and if the stand side is best will have every chance.
It is of course a very open race but the two selections come out marginally best on my ratings, and are amongst the highest Timeform ratings too. Others high on the short list are Fullandby, Obe Brave, Fonthill Road and Beaver Patrol. Indian Trail with the 8lb penalty would have been on the list on faster ground. Buachaill Dona is suited by 5f, and Pearly Wey likes fast going. Benwilt Breeze, the Irish challenger, seems ideally suited by 5f on soft going, though should make a bold show. Zomerlust could be dangerous from stall 1 if the ground goes soft and the pace is fast.
Update 11pm Friday
The going seems to be Good/Soft (Good) in the straight, not Soft, based on the times. Many seem to think that there has been a stand side advantage today, and that the winner will come down the stand rail in the AGC. That may well happen but as far as I am concerned there is insufficient evidence to go by and we are back in the same situation as last year and some previous years when the AGC actually confounded the draw “knee jerkers”. It is possible in any case that the unused centre will prove better. So no change in expectation here. Borderlescott is favourite now. He was made to look rather better than he is by the difficulties faced by Knot In Wood, Zidane, Balthazaar’s Gift and others in the Steward’s Cup and I would be surprised if he could win an AGC off 112. It will take a Group One performance (something of the level shown by Red Clubs at Haydock) to win off that sort of mark.
Saturday 22nd September - 3.45 Newbury - 5.2f Group 3
The times suggest that the going was just on the fast side of Good on Friday. I am not sure of wind direction but the going did not seem as fast as the Clerk of the Course would have us believe. The Going Stick reading of 8.0 confirms Good ground.
On paper this race seems straightforward. Desert Lord should win if he is at his best, as he was in the Nunthorpe.
The biggest danger on ratings is Enticing who wants very fast ground to be at her best and probably hasn’t got it again. The others like Hoh Mike, Rowe Park, Judd Street, The Jobber and Siren’s Gift have plenty to find.
The best overnight price for Desert Lord is 11/4 which is good value.
Selection - Desert Lord @ 11/4 (Betfred)
Saturday 22nd September - 3.20 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The going did not seem as quick as the Official Good/Firm (Firm places) though it may quicken up a bit to Good/Firm by racetime tomorow.
I like Tamagin. He is an uncomplicated horse who would now be going for a four timer but for being mugged close home by Ellens Academy at Doncaster. Until he edged left under pressure to let the old boy up the stand rail Tamagin had the rest of the 20 runner field cooked. He is now ridden by a good 5lb claimer, and using a claimer to get another win from a point-and-go sprinter is the way to go. Unfortunately it looks like plenty of others fancy his chance too and at 7/2 I am not sure that I would want to be betting.
Update 12.00pm
Well now that Idle Power is withdrawn 3/1 is the best available. It is looking somewhat unlikely that the 4/1+ I was looking for will become available. 7/2 now is OK but I would not bet at 3s.
Selection - Tamagin, but only if the price reaches 7/2 or better.
The price only reached 10/3 so no bet.
Sunday 23rd September - 4.10 Hamilton - 5f Fillies Listed
The going is supposedly Good (Good/Soft) with the possibliity of rain later. No Going Stick reading so the going has to be taken on trust until the first race.
The old much loved high draw advantage has gone and either the stand rail or the centre are best these days.
This race has lots of pace for a Fillies race. Morinqua leads almost any race she is in, and there’s Loch Verdi, Blue Echo, Mimi Mouse and Day By Day, front runners all. Pivotal’s Princess and Final Dynasty are also inclined to race prominently at times. Unless there is a front runners truce the pace should be very strong suiting a 5f/6f type.
Pivotal’s Princess is very talented and weighted to win this but has been out of form for some time with no obvious cause and cannot be backed. Riotous Applause did well at Leicester but the value of the form is questionable imo. She may be a 6f fast ground filly and does not have the benefit of Spencer riding today. Morinqua is the next highest on my ratings and there must be a big doubt about her lasting in the climb to the line. Final Dynasty comes next and seems to have things in her favour if the going is on the soft side. I think that Loch Verdi was flattered at Folkestone and has a bit to find. Blue Echo has even more to find with her penalty, though 5f on easy ground is what she needs.
Selection - Final Dynasty @ 15/2 (Stan James and Totesport)
The Week Ahead (23rd September)
Sun 23rd - 4.10 Hamilton - 5f Fillies Listed
- 4.40 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 24th - 2.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 3.30 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Tues 25th - 3.00 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Wed 26th - 3.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 27th - Blank
Fri 28th - 2.35 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 29th - 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 5.10 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 30th - 4.20 Ascot - 6f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
Monday 24th September - 2.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
It has rained overnight but whether this will make a lot of difference I doubt. The times suggested Good ground yesterday with little evidence of any slower ground on the straight course. The stand rail looked the place to be, though it was little used with most of the runners coming up the middle.
Welsh Emperor is one of my old favourites. The softer the better and he needs to dominate. So you know exactly where you are with him. Conditions are not ideal today he would prefer softer ground, heavy would be optimum, and a flat track. He is a very short price (4/6).
There are three other iffy characters who come next in the betting. Opera Cape has not shown anything like the form that prompted Goldolphin to buy him as a 2YO. In any case although a free runner he has looked best at 7f. This step down in trip has a hint of experimentation about it and that and the tonguestrap suggest breathing problems? Big Timer on CRF and Timeform ratings has plenty to find. Strike Up The Band has shown only one glimpse of form since going to Dubai in the winter, and that was at Lingfield in March. An uphill finish at 6f would not be ideal, although he would be a big danger if coming back to his best.
So although Welsh Emperor is the most likely winner conditions could be ripe for a surprise. I have Come Out Fighting only 4lbs down on Welsh Emperor on ratings and now that Philharmonic is out I believe that he is the most likely horse to cause an upset. Come Out Fighting is available at 20/1.
Whilst I have had a bet it may be even better to see what difference the overnight rain has made. If the going has gone Good/Soft then Welsh Emperor’s prospects are improved significantly.
Update
The going decription is now Good/Soft (Soft places) but the time of the first race suggests ground only just on the slow side of Good.
No Selection
Monday 24th September - 3.30 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
After 11mm of overnight/morning rain the going is now described as Good. This is a significant change.
A race full of horses with good recent form and not a lot between them on ratings. I find it difficult to settle on one, although the betting is surprising clear in its preference for Matsunosuke and Little Edward, with Aegean Dancer and Border Music the only others given better than a 14/1 chance. These happen to be the four that were on my short list but they all appreciate fast ground. Particularly now that the rain has come I would not discount the chances of several others.
No Selection at present
Tuesday 25th September - 3.00 Beverley - 5f Class Conditions Stakes
The going is just on the slow side of Good.
Stolt and Tabaret are front runners and sometimes Tournedos and Bond City race prominently, though not lately.
The pace should be reasonable.
Last years winner Philharmonic has not shown his very best yet this season albeit with limited opportunity and excuses. What is more to the point is that although he won this race last year he is essentially a 6f hold up horse and given an average pace will find this sharp enough. Bond City is weighted to win on old form but has had several good chances and failed to even threaten. Hoh Hoh Hoh has a bit to find on ratings but is one of the few in good form, at least he was until the Portland last time. The Trader does not look to be as good as he was, although the stables awful form in mid season needs to be taken into account. Ease in the ground and a stiff 5f are The Traders optimum conditions. His last two runs in France were quite good and if he can reproduce that level of form he should win or go close today.
Selection - The Trader @ 4/1 (Stan James no Rule 4)
Friday 28th September - 2.35 Ascot - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
This race is one of the most competitve 3YO sprint handicaps of the season. It is full of sprinters who will be contenders for the major handicaps and Listed races in the years to come. A bunch of sprinters on the up.
Jimmy Styles was very impressive in trouncing Esteem Machine at Newbury. The 9/2 available with Betfred looks to be a rick.
Selection - Jimmy Styles 2 pts @ 9/2 (Betfred)
Update 11pm
The price has now settled down to 7/2, with Jimmy Styles and Genki joint favourites.
Since I picked out Genki as one to follow when he was narrowly beaten by Makshoof at Haydock I have had a soft spot for the horse, and he has improved markedly. But one or two of these are very lightly raced and still on a steeper upward curve. So Genki at 7/2 is not a good bet imo.
Edge Closer, racing in the same colours as his sire, the admirable front runner Bold Edge, has raced only five times winning four of them. He looks the type to keep improving for a while yet as the opposition gets tougher.
Esteem Machine front ran into a headwind at Newbury and tired after Jimmy Styles came passed him exaggerating the winners impressive finish a little. However he then won at Newmarket and in beating the older horses and only losing out to Mac Gille Eoin in the final stride at Goodwood Esteem Machine improved markedly. On ratings I have him top, so does Timeform and the Racing Post. If he can repeat his last performance, but on an uphill track, he will be hard to beat.
Jimmy Styles has only raced four times following an injury which kept him off the track at two. He has improved by leaps and bounds and his last victory by 3 lengths over Esteem Machine was visually impressive. He travelled comfortably just off the pace and when asked to quicken he found plenty for a few taps almost in Sakhee’s Secret style (though of course not against top opposition). It was the sort of taking performance that says “I am going to back you next time unless there is an extremely good reason why not”. Well a reason is the 11lb hike in the weights, given that the winning margin was exaggerated by Esteem Machine tiring back to the pack. However in other respects the form is good and the time was fast, so no fluke. It is possible that he will be a 7f horse in time but he will be well served by the fast pace you would expect in this race, with Esteem Machine, Edge Closer and Off The Record all prominent runners.
I think that Jimmy Styles is still worth backing at 7/2, and with Genki a popular “public” horse he may even drift a bit. But I will be surprised if he is not favourite by off time.
Update 10am
An interesting betting morning. Jimmy Styles became available again at 4/1 with William Hill and BetDirect. At one point it was possible to be backing JS with them at 4/1 and simultaneously laying him on Betfair at 3.3 and 3.4/1 with liquidity quite strong. Certainly unusual for a sprint handicap to be able to make a few quid arbing. Even now the price with one or two bookmakers is longer at 7/2 than on Betfair, but the possiblity of withdrawals changing prices taken and Betfair commission mean that the opportunity has gone.
Saturday 29th September - 5.10 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going is supposedly Good/Soft (Good places). Soft ground tends to reduce the draw advantage at Chester. There is no information about a false rail, which if in evidence would reduce the draw advantage further.
Coconut Moon has led from a low draw both times recently at Chester. She has a low draw again. Tartatartufata (drawn 10) is also a speedy front runner and Malapropism (drawn 11) has won three on the bounce from the front. Circuit Dancer who tracked and beat Coconut Moon over C/D has a worse draw this time. Prospect Court who is on a five timer returns after a two month break and is nicely drawn in 3. Ishetoo goes for the hatrick but has a tougher task this time. Holbeck Ghyll has been a central figure in so many races this season that it is hard to believe that he hasn’t won for over a year. He is there in stall 4 to tease another lot of punters who may only be saved by doubts about him being at his best on easy ground.
Update
The most likely winner is Coconut Moon (stall 2) from the same handicap mark as when stalked and caught by Circuit Dancer. She may be taken on for the lead this time by Tarta... but she is as effective tracking the pace as front running, so hopefully she will not become inolved in a fight for the lead. Topflightcoolracer in stall 1 has only raced on the All Weather and has something to find on ratings, I would not discount her chance but you would have to be an optimist to back her. Prospect Court in stall 3 may find this sharp 5f quick enough. The four timer in June/July was achieved on very Soft/Heavy going. I do not know why he has been off the track for two months but the going, trip and break are all negatives which put me off. In stall 4 is Holbeck Ghyll who on ratings has as good a chance as most, but his headstrong nature and occasional slow starts add to the risk at Chester that he will not get a good position. Others with good ratings include Dig Deep and Malapropism who but for their draws would have been on my short list.
Selection - Coconut Moon @ 5/1 (Sportingbet, Betfred)
Saturday 29th September - 3.00 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going is officially Soft (Good/Soft places). The times on the straight track on Friday were Good/Soft times.
Commando Scott and Compton’s Eleven are the most likely front runners, so the pace could be modest favouring those who stay handy.
It is difficult to get to grips with this race. Several of these go very well on Soft ground so the conditions are not a big help. Commando Scott, the favourite, is racing off a mark that has been well beyond him in the past and although he has suitable conditions, for me he can only win if given an easy lead. Burning Incense is next in the betting and top of my ratings. He needs easy ground so can be excused his last run but not the one before, unless the lack of blinkers was to blame. At much longer odds he would be worth a punt but at 9/2 the risk/reward equation is not looking good. Backers will be hoping that soft ground AND blinkers is the key.
Compton’s Eleven has good form off much higher marks but for some reason seems to be stuck at a lower level this season. He is ideally suited by 7f but won the Greys only race at 6f and in this race may be able to cruise along front rank giving him every chance. At 16/1 he has a sporting chance. Cape would have been of interest if she had stayed with James Fanshawe, but has now switched stables. Six furlongs on soft ground would not be ideal for Caribbean Coral. River Falcon is well above his highest winning mark, but the race could pan out his way if there is a slow early pace and midrace speed becomes important. Although middling on ratings perhaps he will be able to take advantage in circumstances which do not suit many.
Whilst every sprint handicap is full of ifs and buts this one is off the scale as far as I am concerned. No doubt some will be able to analyse it with 100% clarity. Good luck to them.
No Selection
Saturday 29th September - 3.35 Haydock - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Most of these are very close on ratings and have recent form at, or close to their best. The favourite Efistorm is 4lb higher than when everything fell right for him at Newmarket seven weeks ago. Robinson takes over from a good 3lb claiming apprentice. He has plenty to do at the weights.
The second favourite Oldjoesaid is a lightly raced 3YO who probably has further improvement in him. He split Lipocco and El Bosque at Salisbury over 6f in his seasonal debut, with Dazed and Amazed (won Listed race at Kempton next) beaten off 3 lengths further. That form reads very well now with Lipocco currently rated 11lb higher and El Bosque 6lb higher than in that race, Oldjoesaid was only raised 1lb and if the handicapper went back and rehandicapped the race he would put him up at least another 6lb. Beside my record of the result I wrote that Oldjoesaid “pulled hard and will beat Lipocco next time” so I really liked his performance. He can be excused his last run after a four month break, fading after showing bright speed on the wide outside in the Sandown race won by Indian Trail. 5f on soft going suits him very well and the stable is now in good form.
Apart from Oldjoesaid I like Fantasy Believer and Mecca’s Mate best. Backing a 3YO prospect rather than a proven in-form sprinter is not my usual inclination but this time I will make an exception.
Selection - Oldjoesaid @ 13/2 (Coral, Stan James, Sportingbet)
Sunday 30th September - 4.20 Ascot - 5f Group 2 - Diadem Stakes
A dry 24 hours is forecast and the going should be no slower than Good on the fast draining Ascot straight. Benbaun and Balthazaar’s Gift are best on ratings and it will be difficult for anything else to beat them if one or both are on form. Both have good form on a surface which does not suit every horse. Balthazaar’s Gift seems particularly at home at Ascot. Benbaun had seemed ideally suited by a stiff 5f until two excellent 6f efforts at The Curragh this season.
The best pace in this race seems to be drawn high with Beckermet (17), Galeota (16) and Dark Missile (20). Balthazaar’s Gift and Zidane are well drawn to chase the pace. Benbaun usually tracks the pace these days and will be looking for a lead on the stand side of the field. Perhaps Assertive will lead the centre/stand side. Whoever adopts front running duties the pace is unlikely to be very strong. Yesterday the 7f handicap was won down the stand rail but I doubt that there is a draw advantage and I expect them to race more or less as one group down the centre.
The race looks set up to suit Balthazaar’s Gift and at 7/2 he is backable.
Selection - Balthazaar’s Gift @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes, Stan James)
Benbaun is available at 11/2 with Ladbrokes who seem quite keen to lay the two market leaders. Better value is available on Betfair.