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The Week Ahead (1st June)
Sun 1st - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.15 Chantilly - 5f Group 2 - Prix Du Gros-Chene
Mon 2nd - 3.40 Naas - 5f Listed - Coolmore Choisir Sprint Stakes
- 7.30 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.00 Windsor - 6f Listed - Leisure Stakes
Tues 3rd - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 4th - 7.40 Kempton - 5f All Weather Listed - Achilles Stakes
- 7.50 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.00 Leopardstown - 6f Fillies Group 3 - Ballyogan Stakes
Thurs 5th - 6.45 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 6th - 4.45 Catterick - 6f Class 6 Handicap - Blackheath
- 3.35 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.35 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 7th - 3.15 Epsom - 5f Heritage Handicap - Totesport Dash
- 5.20 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Maiden
- Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 8th - Blank
Monday 2nd June - 3.40 Naas - 5f Listed - Coolmore Choisir Sprint Stakes
Tax Free has been over to Ireland four times in the last year and has encountered easy ground on each occasion. His only win was in this race last year where Dandy Man and Desert Lord were even more disadvantaged by the conditions. Today he gets the fast ground he requires. Therefore he should turn the tables on Snaefell. I had hoped that Snaefell’s two more recent wins against Tax Free would have helped the price. However a combination of the Racing Post betting forecast and overnight Betfair nibblers means that Tax Free’s price is likely to be too short for us. The only hope is that the Irish punters will fancy their own horses Snaefell and Contest to come out on top again.
Selection - Tax Free @ 3/1 or longer price only.
Monday 2nd June - 8.00 Windsor - 6f Listed - Leisure Stakes
The going is reported to be Good/Soft [7.2]. They are using the stand side half of the course with the stalls on the stand side rail. In these conditions they are likely to stay near the stand rail, though if it got much softer they would surely go middle to far side in the last 3f. Additional rain is forecast in the afternoon.
The short list is Balthazaar’s Gift, Hoh Mike, Sonny Red and Edge Closer, assuming Good/Soft. That is not very original as they are the first four in the betting.
If Balthazaar’s Gift runs close to his best he will surely win. On ratings I have him 6lb clear of Hoh Mike and 8lb clear of
Sonny Red. Hoh Mike is a popular punter’s horse and ran with promise at York so perhaps he and BG will be close in the betting.
Update 5pm - The rain is arriving and the horse best suited of the four to 6f on softish ground is probably Sonny Red. Balthazaar’s Gift is surely being prepared to peak for Royal Ascot and may not get the strong pace he needs here. Hoh Mike would also be suited by a fast pace and the field coming back to him. Edge Closer’s best form has been on the All Weather so far and it remains to be seen if he is as effective on Good/Soft ground.
Selection - Sonny Red @ 15/2 (Sportingbet)
Tuesday 3rd May - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
This time there definitely looks like an appreciable amount of rain will fall. The track is reported to be Good [8.6] from Good/Firm and should be softer by race time. There are probably not enough runners and the going will not be soft enough to encourage any to go down the far rail. It looks like being a classic Ripon sprint with the best chance coming from hugging the strand rail.
Valery Borzov is 10lb higher for the runaway win at Thirsk. He has the worst draw in 10 and should get some competition for the lead from High Curragh, Malcheek or Bel Cantor. With four front runners in the race you would think that the best chance will fall to hold up horses drawn near the rail. Swinbrook is the obvious choice but he is not a straightforward horse. I have not really spent the time required to investigate his particular issues but I think he is easily intimidated and seems to have one long run which peters out just when he looks a danger, a recent example being his narrow loss to Noblissima at Leicester where he looked all over the winner but somehow snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Dr Watters quack remedy would be a hood and ear plugs. Swinbrook is operating on lower handicap marks than at his best. In six races for Richard Fahey he has been favourite five times with two near squeaks and a win in a 6 runner race at Southwell to show for it. It will be crowded on the rail and I don’t fancy his chances of getting through, or round, the bunch. At the price I wouldn’t back him with your money.
What are the alternatives? Rising Shadow always needs a fast pace and/or testing conditions and will be outpaced at the back. There has been very little encouragement in four runs so far for his new trainer this season, a mid div finish behind Turnkey at Ponte being the only glimmer of form. If the going went soft you would have to consider him. Mutamared and Pearly Wey would stand better chances on fast ground. Dazzling Bay has been off 20 months. Grazeon Gold Blend has beaten one home in the last 21 months. So not much encouragement there.
Update - Matamared has been scratched presumably because of the ground. Going through the runners I think that only Pearly Wey and possibly Dazzling Bay and Malcheek will be inconvenienced by Good/Soft or softer.
The short list comes down to Valery Borzov, High Curragh and Bel Cantor.
I would only back a horse with Valery Borzov’s draw (drawn 10 and on the outside) if I thought he would be able to get near the rail with little extra effort. At Thirsk he had the best draw and an unhindered easy lead down the stand rail. Here Adrian could get a fast break and bustle him onto the rail within half a furlong, but it is more likely that he will have to fight for his position, which will make him vulnerable at the business end.
High Curragh has a turnaround of 10lb in his favour, goes well on easy ground and seems happy either front running or chasing the leaders. He is 1lb above his highest winning mark. It will be interesting to see if Callan is switched to ride him. He has an excellent 2nd at Ripon to his name and a good chance in today’s race.
Bel Cantor probably goes best with give, so the more rain the better. He is 2lb above his highest winning mark but has an above average and consistent record by sprint handicap standards. On April 17th he front ran along the stand rail, finishing 3rd, proving he handles the Ripon undulations. With Malcheek drawn 3 Bel Cantor may have to settle for a share of the lead, or sit just off it. The start will be important.
Further Update - Malcheek has been scratched. Plenty of rain has fallen and there is more to come. Good/Soft or softer. The 2.30 should tell us and then a selection.
1pm Update - The news from the track is that the official going will be Soft. There will still be some more light rain.
OK lots of things could happen in this race. Valery Borzov could go to the far rail and sluice up. They could go too fast and give it to Rising Shadow. They could get tired, hang into the centre and leave Swinbrook with a dream run up the rail. Lots of possibilities. However I have no doubt whatsoever that the best value in this race is Bel Cantor. Soft going and a draw near the rail (now that two are withdrawn) are strongly in his favour. Andrew Mullen usually bustles him into a lead or as close to the leaders as possible. Unless Dazzling Bay messes him up he should get on the rail in a good position. He is a grinder rather than a speed horse, but with luck that is what is required today.
Selection - Bel Cantor 2pts @ 12/1 (generally)
Wednesday 4th June - 7.40 Kempton - 5f All Weather Listed - Achilles Stakes
Oldjoesaid would surely have been a hot favourite for this, but is a non-runner.
There is a significant high draw advantage at Kempton. The run to the first bend is short and the bend is tight.
The most likely front runner is Judd Street. Galeota is often a front runner over 6f but is more likely to be handy in a sharp 5f race.
Rowe Park will also be in touch and possibly Cake. Without too much competition for the lead the pace should be average.
Unusually for a race in June none of these has yet hit top form. On ratings I have little or nothing between Rowe Park, Galeota, Judd Street and Green Manalishi.
Update - In terms of track and tactics I think that the advantage lies with the prominent runners with a high draw. So Judd Street will be difficult to beat if he is on song. He is weak on Betfair and available now at 5/1 and even 11/2 to reasonable money, also 11/2 with Blue Square.
Selection - Judd Street @ 11/2 (Blue Square).
Saturday 7th June - 3.15 Epsom - 5f Heritage Handicap - The Dash
11pm Thursday - By Saturday the going is forecast to be Good. No watering is proposed, which is good news. The drainage and camber of the track means that the stand rail should be quickest. The Turftrax map in the Racing Post this morning showed Good/Soft generally with two patches of Good on the stand rail.
This race seems to be won alternately by fast front runners (Desert Lord, Fire Up The Band, Rudi’s Pet) and those special hold up horses that thrive chasing a fast pace on the bridle (Hogmaneigh, Caribbean Coral, Bishop’s Court). My inclination is mostly to go for the front runners and that approach was a bit unlucky last year when Hogmaneigh got a charmed run to catch Moorhouse Lad. In that race my expectation that Moorhouse Lad would lead the stand side from his high draw was thwarted by Merlin’s Dancer who showed exceptional speed to cross in front of the field to the stand rail from stall 5. Merlin’s Dancer paid for going too fast but was only beaten 2 1/2 lengths off a mark of 95. In 2006 he ran a similar race off a mark of 93 leading them all, including the winner Desert Lord, from another bad stall (3). On Saturday he races off 83 and has been blessed, at last, with what looks a perfect draw 19 of 20.
OK many people will believe that Merlin’s Dancer is a light of former days. But there is a reasonable chance, like many 8YO sprinters, that given the right conditions and handicap mark he can still show form close to his former best. At Lingfield on 9th May he led a field of mainly front runners at a furious gallop setting up Zowington to break Eveningperformance’s track record, and was beaten only 1 1/2 lengths. So the speed is still there. He also goes well on easy ground, as when he finished 4th in the Steward’s Cup on Good/Soft. As last year Egan rides and he should now know the difference between a suicidal pace and one that can last to the line. Merlin’s Dancer is trained in Epsom and this will have been his target.
Most likely to contest the lead is Morinqua, who thankfully is drawn over in stall 1. Other front runners Ocean Blaze, Masta Plasta and Strike Up The Band are also drawn low in 3, 6 and 7. Whilst Diane’s Choice and Magic Glade are speedy and drawn high they should not be fast enough to press Merlin’s Dancer. Masta Plasta represents Dandy, who has a superb record in the race, both winners and placed horses. Masta Plasta made all at York with his lady apprentice just letting him run. So many sprinters could benefit from those tactics, and a point and run 7lb claiming apprentice. He is up 6lb but should run another good race. Strike Up The Band is getting dangerously well handicapped, and with Silvestre riding I expect him to do much better. Bigaloo’s Bandit was staying on too late last year when hampered, and will be in it because Dandy thinks he has a squeak. Tournedos is only 2lb higher than at York, but his win there was down to a good draw and Silvestre’s pace judgement, neither of which he has at Epsom.
Of the hold-up horses and trackers Hogmaneigh (drawn 17), Safari Mischief, Holbeck Ghyll (unlikely to front run) and
Fathom Five (drawn 20) seem the biggest dangers. Hopefully Egan will have Merlin’s glued to the rail and will not let anything up the inside.
Selection - Merlin’s Dancer @ 25/1 (William Hill, Bet365)
Update Friday 7pm - Merlin’s Dancer has been backed down to a best price of 18/1 (Ladbrokes, Corals). At that price he is still a value bet. Other high drawn horses have also been backed - Fathom Five(drawn 20), Evens And Odds(15) and Hogmaneigh (17)
who is 11/2 favourite to repeat last year’s win. How’s She Cuttin’ (drawn 2) is withdrawn.
Saturday 7th June - 5.20 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
This is usually a top handicap. A target for progressive horses and from a punting point of view a race with shape, by which I mean draw, pace and tactical characteristics which tend to be repeated year on year. One way to spot the winner is to look at David Nicholls runners and work out which will have the draw and pace to track the leaders along the rail, and the stamina to be staying on strongly at the end. This simple formula has been successful with Onlytime Will Tell, Loyal Tycoon, Native Title and Gift Horse.
This year there is a disappointing field and five have been withdrawn because of the drying ground. It does not look likely that the pace will be that strong. Idle Power and Lucayos are the most likely front runners on paper but both are drawn high. Joseph Henry could be left in the lead early in the race from his low draw. Gift Horse is ideally positioned to track Joseph Henry, though Spencer’s normal tactics would be to drop Gift Horse out towards the rear. Machinist is also reasonably drawn to take a lead from Joseph Henry and with Silvestre aboard is the most likely of the three to adopt the optimum tactics to win this race. Machinist’s three runs at Epsom have not gone well but he has run perfectly well on downhill tracks. Obe Gold is the least likely of Dandy’s, which is reflected in the jockey bookings. The others in the low half of the draw all look unlikely to me. Pearly Wey is having his seasonal debut and has the worst draw.
Take your pick of Dandy’s. They are 1,2,3 in the betting and it would not surprise me if they filled the places. But which one first?
Saturday 7th June - 5.05 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The short list is The Nifty Fox, Rothesay Dancer and Bosun Breese. As they are 1,2,3 in the betting there probably is not any value to be had.
Update - To my surprise Bosun Breese is 8.0 and more on Betfair. I was impressed with his effort at Windsor where racing alone in the centre he was 3 lengths up entering the final furlong but wandered and tired late on. Drawn next to the rail should help a lot.
Selection - Bosun Breese @ 8.0 or better on Betfair
The Week Ahead (8th June)
Sun 8th - Blank
Mon 9th - 3.15 Folkstone - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.00 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 10th - 8.15 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 11th - 7.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.25 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 12th - 3.35 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 13th - 4.35 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 6.20 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 9.05 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 14th - 3.40 Sandown - 5f Listed 3YO only - Scurry Stakes
- 4.15 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.25 York - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Betfair Sprint (formerly William Hill Gold Cup)
- 5.05 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.45 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 15th - 3.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.35 Salisbury - 6f Listed - Cathedral Stakes
- 3.00 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
A poor last three weeks has knocked out most of the healthy profit built up early on. It happens. Nothing can be done about it. Looking back on the last 16 bets only two started at longer prices than those taken. Before the races they were horses that looked to have live chances. The sprints start to come thick and fast at this time of year, and there is plenty to look forward to.
Royal Ascot is not far off and an ante-post bet in the Wokingham looks highly likely.
Saturday 21st June - Royal Ascot - Wokingham Handicap
10th June - Something has a good chance if Dandy can get him into top shape. Now on a mark of 100 he was on 102 when 4th last year and on 104 when beaten two necks in the Bunbury Cup. Personally I hope that Something will progress this season into at least a Listed performer. For now I think there is at least one horse with a better chance. Although I backed the horse a week ago I was hoping for confirmation of an intended run in the Wokingham before selecting him here. He also has a Golden Jubilee entry. However the price is going quickly.
Selection - Lipocco @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Update - The price has gone with three firms today and will not last much longer.
Betting Ante-Post is not usually to be recommended in sprints. The going, draw and distribution of the pace can all be crucial. However Lipocco is an uncomplicated front runner who goes on anything from Good/Firm to Good/Soft, so the risks are much lessened.
Tuesday 10th June - 8.15 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Firm going. Watering to maintain a Going Stick reading of about 9.4. No information yet on false rails.
Eight habitual or occasional front runners in a field of 14.
This race should be run at a strong pace. Horses like Coconut Moon, Silver Prelude and Dodaa really have only one way of running successfully. From the front. If Fire Up The Band had still been with Dandy he would almost certainly have tried to dominate, but it is not clear whether the from the stalls commitment will be the same from his new stable. Cape Royal and Bluebok will not be able to get to the front for long from stalls 12 and 14 and have a mountain to climb.
So from the inside :-
Stall 1 - Fire Up The Band will need total commitment from the stalls to hold his position and front run. This is unlikely. I see him probably being shuffled back.
Stall 2 - Best One is favourite but on my ratings needs to improve. The first time cheekpieces are a little off-putting following two successive wins. A bit of an unknown as far as I am concerned. Good Chance?
Stall 3 - Foxy Music has plenty to find on my ratings but is known to be a very speedy horse who could well have a future in this sort of race. Seasonal debut and jockey booking (Mulrennan’s first ride for Alston) suggest that not much is expected today.
Stall 4 - Misaro is clear top on my ratings. Does not have sufficient speed to lead these but well drawn to chase the pace 2nd or 3rd rank on the rails and pick up the pieces. Good chance.
Stall 5 - Jilly Why. Not her ground or type of race. Too sharp.
Stall 6 - Coconut Moon has won twice over course and distance, making all once and chasing a furious pace on the rails the other time. She also has two Chester 2nds and two 3rds to her name. She is the most likely front runner, though likely to be under considerable pressure so her chances of lasting home are not that good. Chance.
Stall 7 - Mambo Spirit will probably get shuffled back into mid div from where he will have his work cut out.
Stall 8 - Caribbean Coral is the most likely to pick up the pieces if they go far too fast. This draw makes it problematic to drop out onto the rails, and his chance possibily requires a dream run. Chance.
The choice is between Best One and Misaro. On the basis of better the devil you know -
Selection - Misaro @ 11/2 (Sporting Odds, Coral)
Wed 11th June - 7.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The anticipated showers should not make much difference. Going is on the fast side of Good [8.7].
The stalls are in the centre, and there is probably no draw advantage.
My Gacho is the only habitual front runner in the field, although Ingleby Arch has been racing up front on occasions recently. I am not sure that it suits him though. My Gacho is drawn 11 and Ingleby Arch is in 8 so the high numbers may get the best tow. This would apply to Blue Tomato, Gunfighter, Geojimali and Yorkshire Blue. My Gacho is having his first run for Mark Johnston and is possibly not the force of old but the reapplication of blinkers is a positive sign and he will more likely than not be trying to dominate. The favourite is Gunfighter but the computer and I do not rate his recent 3rd at Newcastle as highly as the Racing Post or Timeform and I think that he has plenty to do. He finished that race strongly and was held up a little but it was the run of a 7f horse in a 6f race. For me the best on ratings is Rainbow Fox. However he is drawn in 1 and is not a horse which inspires a great deal of confidence. In a typical 6f race he is flat to the boards all the way and really his best chance will come when they go too fast and come back to him. That seems unlikely to happen today. Having said that I am struggling to find one which makes more appeal. In which case perhaps it is best to leave the race alone.
Friday 13th June - 4.35 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good going. As usual the place not to be is drawn near the stand rail. As usual expect the field to congregate down the middle.
For a 5f York sprint this one is short in the front runner department. Stolt (6) and Tabaret (19) are the most likely front runners. Poor Tabaret, the fourth bum draw in a row, three of them at York - 15 of 15, 19 of 20, and now 19 of 19. There is a win around the corner but not today. Others who could press the pace are Bahamian Ballet and Bo McGinty, and Everymanforhimself should be handy.
There is likely to be a selection in this race.
Update 9.30am - A complicated race but for me one horse stands out as having a good chance. It is not the favourite Total Impact who is generally 7/2 and very short for a 19 runner 5f handicap. I may be wrong but my reading of his Doncaster win is that he was flat to the boards a long way out, got a very helpful tow and a dream gap opened up on the often favoured stand rail. He is in my short list but below Bahamian Ballet (worth a saver/ew at 16/1+) and The Nifty Fox. Tabaret has the horrible draw and Fantasy Explorer a poor draw also.
The one I like best is Everymanforhimself. His pursuit of Masta Plasta at York last time suggested to me that he had improved further over the winter. Having got clear in front, and with Adele Rothery’s 7lb claim helping a lot, Masta Plasta was not for catching that day, but Everymanforhimself did much the best of the rest. It was his first 5f run since early 2YO days and it appeared to suit him as he had the speed to lie 2nd more or less throughout. Timeform describe him as “big, strong, good-topped colt: has scope”. He went for 56,000 at the HIT sales. Perhaps he will be one of those improving 4YOs who win more than their fair share of handicaps?
Unfortunately the 6/1 predicted by the Racing Post is unlikely to be available anywhere. It would not surprise me if Everymanforhimself was well backed, and possibly ended up favourite with Total Impact drifting.
Selection - Everymanforhimself @ 5/1 (Ladbrokes, Betfred, William Hill)
Saturday 14th June - 3.25 York - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Betfair Sprint Cup
Interesting as it undoubtedly is this race is not one that grabs my attention as a betting medium. In 20 years I can only recall finding the winner twice - Pepperdine and Tax Free. There is so much I do not know about these horses.
What we do know is that the going is close to Good following showers during racing on Friday. That the middle is the place to be unless they have had plenty more rain. The likely front runners are Victorian Bounty (4) and Hamish McGonagall (9) which should confer an advantage to centre/low drawn trackers/chasers. Van Bossed (2), Brave Prospector (8) and Ancien Regime (17) will probably not be far off the pace.
Ancien Regime is probably a worthy favourite. At Newmarket he travelled and went to the front 2f out like a horse that was a class above the opposition. He hung left, but the going was officially Firm and he is still an inexperienced horse. If he edges left in this race it will be an advantage rather than a disadvantage as it will take him into the centre, but I doubt that he will do it on Good ground. He has a poor draw to overcome but a good tactician riding him.
Fathsta is no doubt already a favourite of many. An admirable consistent type, who is probably still on a mark he can win from (93). He has an excellent draw between the likely pacemakers, travels strongly and will see out the trip better than most. He is a late foal and has shown relentless progress other the last few weeks.
Hamish McGonagall may stay 6f but he ran like a 5f horse last time and I would much rather be a layer than a backer over 6f. There are several other horses in the race that have taken the eye this season. I like Prohibit (yet to fulfill the talent that is there), Carleton (Musson’s apparent insistence that his sprinters be held up does them no favours, particularly on sharp tracks), Baldemar (will be suited by a fast pace race) and Good Gorsoon.
If I was forced to have a bet it would be Fathsta at 10/1, rather than Ancien Regime at 9/2, because of the draw. But there is
no-one forcing us.
No Selection.
Saturday 14th June - 3.40 Sandown - 5f 3YO Listed - Scurry Stakes
One of the betting dangers I have to guard against is an occasional tendency to want to take on short priced favourites too much. I was aware that Corrybrough is the real deal two runs ago yet still imagine that a poor draw or denial of a clear run can see him beaten. There is also the fact that he will undoubtedly be better at 6f, yet is still being campaigned at 5f, albeit on the stiffest tracks.
Tajdeef has not been finishing his 6f races against Fat Boy too well and the drop back in trip to 5f should suit him. On ratings he is the biggest danger to Corrybrough. The pace may be strong thanks to Cake, Hammadi and Inxile. Tajdeef should be ridden closer to the pace than lately. Corrybrough does not have the early speed to lie up with these, so is vulnerable over 5f to a well judged ride from the front. Ryan Moore does not make many mistakes though and I can’t see him getting boxed in or switching 2f out to the slower centre of the track as Dettori did today.
It is a race best watched unless you are desperate for a winner at any price. In which case back Corrybrough.
No Selection.
Saturday 14th June - 7.45 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Another very interesting 3YO race.
Befortyfour, Chartist, Little Pete and Bosun Breese are all worth watching for the future. Little Pete is the one that comes out best in my ratings, but Chartist is the one I like most. He should be suited to the sharpest tracks like Epsom and Goodwood. Leicester is mainly uphill.
No Selection
Saturday 14th June - 5.05 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The rain has tended to nullify the centre draw advantage, with some making ground towards the stand side. The going is Good.
Not many of these are in top form. Six 3YOs take on the older horses and predictably they are prominent in the betting. Perhaps the most likely is Harrison George but he has a poorish draw in 18. Guest Connections looks a bit of a “dog” in headgear but many horses do. His last three runs in claimers have been up to his normal form according to the computer whereas the human handicappers have rated the performances lower. His mark has been dropped to 70 and he should be able to win off that. Dandy would tend to target this race and Guest Connections is his sole representative.
Selection - Guest Connections @ 14/1 (Bet365)
The Week Ahead (15th June)
Sun 15th - 3.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.35 Salisbury - 6f Listed - Cathedral Stakes
- 3.00 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 16th - 8.00 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 17th - 3.05 Royal Ascot - 5f Group One - King’s Stand Stakes
- 5.10 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 18th - Blackheath - 4.00 Hamilton - 5f Claimer
- 7.55 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.15 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 19th - Blank
Fri 20th - Pinpoint - 4.20 Royal Ascot - 10f Listed Handicap (96-110) - Wolferton Handicap Stakes
- 4.10 Redcar - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.20 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- Chantilly - 5f Group Three - Prix Hampton
Sat 21st - 3.45 Royal Ascot - 6f Group One - Golden Jubilee Stakes
- 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Heritage Handicap - Wokingham Stakes (Something)
- 3.10 Ayr - 5f Fillies Listed -
- 5.30 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 4.00 Newmarket - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.50 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 22nd - Blank
Sunday 15th June - 3.35 Salisbury - 6f Listed - Cathedral Stakes
Borderlescott is well suited to conditions and the obvious choice. Beckermet should take them along at a good pace. Expect Borderlescott to be in close touch and to be challenging from 2f out. Not only is Borderlescott the better horse but he receives 4lb from Beckermet. Silver Touch and Swiss Franc will do well to get into the race. Edge Closer has a chance of a place.
Unfortunately Borderlescott will not be a backable price. He is currently around 6/4.
Sunday 15th June - 3.00 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Not many of these are in form. In fact only Crimson Fern and Malapropism have been in top form, and Crimson Fern could be going for a four timer but for a slightly unlucky 2nd to Stolt at York. She had a very good draw at Sandown and won only narrowly from Highland Warrior and Glasshoughton. 5lb higher today but again with the best draw against the far rail.
Pretty Miss could get back to form at a reasonable price. Pic Up Sticks is ideally suited by a stiff 5f on fast going and has the positive booking of Ryan Moore. The race is not as straightforward as the market would lead one to believe.
No Selection
Sunday 15th June - 3.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
When I analysised this race Ishetoo stood out as likely to be a good bet. But having looked at the video of Musaalem’s win at Yarmouth confidence has evaporated. There Musaalem pulled hard for two furlongs, was taken back to the rear, made good headway from 3f out and was soon clear when shaken up. He did not win it exceptionally easily (2 1/2 lengths) but what I liked was the ease and speed that he made up the ground midrace. It was so smooth displaying a classic fast ground action. After two wins from two runs you have to expect him to improve plenty. The 6f should suit.
Ishetoo is on a potentially winning mark and his old form was as good at 6f as 5f, so he should be fully effective over the 6f today. It might even suit him better. Malcheek will try to make all, and I would guess that Ishetoo will lie handy rather than take him on in the first half of the race. Musaalem has pulled hard both times at 7f, but here is drawn next to Malcheek and should get a good lead.
Of the others Wyatt Earp has a poor draw in 1, and has something to prove now after his York flop. Orpenindeed is a horse I like but something will probably have to go wrong for Musaalem or Ishetoo if he is to win.
Musaalem is best priced 9/4 at present.
No Selection
Tuesday 17th June - 3.05 Royal Ascot - 5f Group One - King’s Stand Stakes
While Fleeting Spirit was winning so impressively at Haydock I was at Beverley watching Something run. You had to be at your computer to get the 8/1 Fleeting Spirit for the King’s Stand Stakes straight after the Temple Stakes. Soon she was 5/1 which did not look especially generous at the time, but now she is a best priced 5/2. If she can reproduce that run she will be difficult to beat. The ratings suggest that only Benbaun, Takeover Target, Dandy Man, Magnus and Kingsgate Native have any realistic chance of of doing so.
Benbaun is a little hard to predict, but a repeat of his Prix L’Abbaye form would give him the best chance of overturning the favourite. Last year they used Takeover Target’s King’s Stand run as a prep for the Golden Jubilee, reasoning that he was unlikely to be quick enough to win at 5f. More of the same seems likely and therefore it is difficult to understand why TT is second
favourite. Dandy Man needs to come back to his very best and with Godolphin that does seem unlikely. Magnus ran a big race to be third last year, helped by the suicidal pace set by Desert Lord and Moorhouse Lad, but he does not seem to have improved
any. There is a question mark against how much Kingsgate Native will have developed over the winter. Was he just very precocious or will he go on to confirm his position at the top? His trainer’s pronouncements on the subject seem to be preparing us for a lower level of achievement in 2007.
Update - Fleeting Spirit is the logical form answer. However Royal Ascot races can be very unpredictable, and the King’s Stand must be one of the most unpredictable. The favourite, Miss Andretti won it last year. Before that you have to go back to Lochsong in 1994 to find a winning favourite. In between the SPs of the winners have included - 33/1, 25/1, 20/1 x 2, 16/1 x 2 etc.
Before I start going down the road of hunches.....
No Selection
Tuesday 17th June - 5.10 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The ground is fast and this is a test of speed. The horse with the most speed is Mr Wolf. He is also drawn against the stand rail and to be ridden by Fergal Lynch who has won on him several times. Ice Planet is out with a stone bruise.
Selection - Mr Wolf @ 5/1 (generally)
Saturday 21st June - 4.25 Royal Ascot - Wokingham Handicap
A couple of weeks ago we played on the Ante-Post market with Lipocco @ 25/1. Nothing that has happened since has made me regret that bet. The draw is close enough to the stand rail to enable a natural front runner to get near to the rail if Seb Sanders wishes. If the rain produces a centre/far side bias he should be able to go over there too.
My short list would consist of - Lipocco, Knot In Wood, Something, Edge Closer, Intrepid Jack, Tombi, Off The Record, and King’s Apostle.
The only two I have with a higher rating than Lipocco are Knot In Wood (needs plenty rain) and Something. The best early pace is likely to come from Tamagin (5) and Off The Record (17). Lipocco (11) will probably be front rank as well. Bentong (22) and Beaver Patrol (2) should not be far behind. Expect Something (3), Edge Closer (14), Nota Bene (1) and Tombi (9) to be close to the pace also. This all adds up to a probable stand side pace advantage.
The time to consider additional bets or laying off will come on late Friday/Saturday morning.
Update Saturday morning - No reason to change or add to our bet. King’s Apostle and Tombi are feared most. Less rain than expected has fallen and the going should be very similar to yesterday.
The selection was Lipocco @ 25/1 (now 15/1 on Betfair).
Post Mortem - to follow
Saturday 21st June - 3.45 Royal Ascot - Golden Jubilee
This is a tough one. At this point in time Sakhee’s Secret is the logical favourite, but if the rain falls in substantial amounts his chance will go. Indeed my guess is that Hughie Morrison will take him out of the race, not wanting to risk another Haydock undermining of his reputation. Fast ground favours Sakhee’s Secret, Takeover Target, War Artist and Fat Boy. Good/Soft would favour Soldier’s Tale, Marchand D’Or, Bathazaar’s Gift, Myboycharlie, Sir Gerry and U S Ranger.
Fat Boy (14) and Takeover Target (2) are the most likely front runners. Myboycharlie can also go from the front.
Two of the most important variables - ground and draw bias - are subject to possible change and so a selection will have to wait till nearer the time.
Update Saturday morning - There has only been 4mm of rain overnight, with perhaps a little more to come. The Clerk of the Course would have put at least that amount on to maintain the going at Firm (Good/Firm) so before racing one must assume that the going will still be fast this afternoon.
On fast going Sakhee’s Secret has to be favourite to confirm his status at the top of the sprint standings. His Palace House run was as good as could have been expected over 5f first time out. He should have come on a lot for that. Hughie Morrison’s yard is in top form. The only doubt, if you are looking for doubts, is the suitability of the unusual Ascot sand based track.
It is a very competitive race. I cannot remember a higher class Golden Jubilee. Apart from Sakhee’s I think that Marchand D’Or (very best easy ground so far), Takeover Target, War Artist, Soldier’s Tale (needed more rain), and possibly US Ranger would be worthy winners of this Group One.
On the assumption that the rain will stop at around 10am and that it will be more or less dry from then on -
Selection - Sakhee’s Secret @ 5/1 (Blue Square, Boylesports, Bet Direct, Stan James etc)
Post Mortem - Sakhee’s Secret was never going, and the assumption has to be (until further proof) that he needs a fast unwatered surface to show his form. He was not helped by a lost front shoe and being squeezed out.
Kingsgate Native has to take No.1 spot for the time being, though his 3YO allowance will lessen as the season wears on. War Artist also has a rating good enough to win an average Group One.
The somewhat loose and slippery surface seemed not to suit quite a few runners, and several of those who ran below form can be excused.
The Week Ahead (22nd June)
Sun 22nd - Blank
Mon 23rd - 4.45 Lingfield - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 24th - 3.15 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 25th - 5.10 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 26th - 2.50 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.10 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 8.00 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 27th - 7.25 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
- 8.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Conditions Stakes
- 9.10 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 28th - 2.10 Newcastle - 6f Group Three - Chipchase Stakes
- 2.45 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.40 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap -
- 3.30 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.10 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.10 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 29th - 2.40 The Curragh - 5f Group 3 - Sapphire Stakes
- 2.55 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap 6YO+
Tuesday 24th June - 3.15 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going. A high draw important.
10am Update - Two horses have very good recent form and a high draw. Everymanforhimself went a little too quickly for his own good at York last time, but on his previous run has every chance. Lord of the Reins has the plumb 17 draw, did really well at York and has shown more tactical speed in recent runs, so should be able to hold his place on the far rail mid div at worst.
Strike Up The Band is well handicapped now but as a front runner has his work cut out to stay front rank over this stiff 5f. Particularly as he is likely to be pressed by Handsome Cross and possibly Everymanforhimself.
The 17 draw is a major plus for Lord Of The Reins.
Selection - Lord Of The Reins @ 9/2 (Totesport + Betfair)
Wednesday 25th June - 5.10 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Soft going, so a reason to have a look at what otherwise would be a very open race. The ones that go particularly well on Soft are - Prospect Court, Highland Warrior, Garlogs, Glasshoughton and Angus Newz. Foxy Music and Ice Planet can also go well on soft though Ice Planet is probably better at 6f and Foxy Music may find this too much of a test. Highland Warrior comes out best on my ratings, of those in good form, and a stiff 5f and soft ground is his optimum as shown when second to Crimson Fern at Sandown from a poor draw.
Selection - Highland Warrior @ 9/1 (Bet365) - at 10am Coral are going 9/1.
Friday 27th June - 7.25 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
Good/Soft going. The effect of the draw is often a matter of debate at Newcastle. On easy ground I prefer to see my money on one running down the far rail. However in this race two years ago Peace Offering, from an ideal stall 2, came down the supposedly unfavoured centre all the way with me screaming at the TV to get across to the rail, and it won comfortably. The best pace is probably on the stand side, but having watched Conquest and Capricorn Run change the habits of a lifetime and fight it out for the lead in the Wokingham, I would not want to be dogmatic about that either.
Update - It seems highly likely that they will split into two groups. This is what happened in the 2.30 yesterday in a 15 runner field with the first, fourth, seventh and three others running up the far side and the rest running along the stand rail. Having considered all possibilities I cannot see that there will be enough early pace on the far side. Of the low drawn runners the most likely to front run is probably Northern Empire, but he may be a reluctant hero and might even come stand side. Efistorm sometimes races prominently but is unlikely to be speedy enough to keep the far group in contention. Buachaill Dona is a tracker whose chance could evaporate front rank. The others hold-up horses or chasers.
So reluctantly attention turns to the high drawn runners. Yesterday there definitely looked to be an advantage racing hard against the stand rail. Drawn against the stand rail is Steve’s Champ, a very speedy Norwegian Listed winner, who is carrying a huge burden. He is the most likely front runner. Next to him is Ishetoo, who is less well handicapped now, but has a good combination of speed and stamina for a stiff 5f on softish going. Next is Pusey Street Lady trying 5f for the first time in a long time. She has been showing speed over 6f, but this may be a touch too sharp, though the going is a big positive. Then Bond City, Fathom Five and Hamish McGonagall all of whom have points in their favour. Between them all they should be pressing for the lead and I expect the winner to come from this group.
In the hope that Ishetoo will be able to track Steve’s Champ, or whatever else wants to lead, racing hard against the stand rail I think he has a good chance. Dale Gibson replaces the apprentice. One thing you can rely on with Dale is that he will walk the course and have a clear idea where the fastest ground is, and the tactics needed to use it.
Selection - Ishetoo @ 15/2 (Blue Square)
Saturday 28th June - 2.10 Newcastle - 6f Group Three - Chipchase Stakes
Good/Soft going. Stalls on the stand side but there looks to be a low draw advantage which may encourage some to try the far side despite the limited field size.
Update - After rain yesterday evening the going was changed to Soft. There was a fair amount of rain and it would have got into the opened up ground. However from the times it was still nearer Good/Soft than anything more testing. The far side is probably a quicker but they will only go that side if Beckermet does and probably in one group. The tactics are hard to call and after the Gosforth Park Cup it really isn’t worth trying.
The ones we know relish soft conditions are Utmost Respect, Confuchias, Greek Renaissance, Lady Grace and Reverence. One or two of the others will go on it, but the list above actually need give, and will spend the summer looking for it, so it makes sense to concentrate on those.
Lady Grace is probably not quite good enough. Greek Renaissance apparently has a wind problem, and expecting him to win first time out is in any case doubtful.
If the stand rail is still a fast strip Reverence could just about make all down it, but he used to be better at 5f and his form this year suggests that he is no longer quite good enough to win Group races.
Which leaves Utmost Respect and Confuchias. Confuchias won this on soft ground last year, ran very well on Good/Soft behind Balthazaar’s Gift at Windsor where with a clear run he would have gone close, he is top rated by Timeform and has only a pound or two to find on my ratings. He is not a “public” horse like Utmost Respect but in an open race has a similar chance.
Selection - Confuchias @ 11.5 equals 10/1 on Betfair
Saturday 28th June - 2.45 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The draw could play an important part in this one.
Update - The last two races yesterday indicated a far side advantage. On such small margins are many sprint handicaps won and lost, so it makes sense to go low, if all other considerations are equal. However they aren’t. The natural front runner in the field is Valery Borzov and he has the visor back on. I expect Adrian to try to make all down the far rail and that could give a major advantage to the far side, especially if the stand side runners hesitate. However it will not be easy for Valery B to last home, and I fancy a chaser to catch him. If Valery B goes down the far rail then you can be pretty sure that Damika and Trojan Flight will be right there chasing him. Of course there may be several others doing the same - Geojimali (drawn 7) and Rising Shadow (drawn 9) to name but two - but I like Damika and stall 1 in particular.
Selection - Damika @ 8/1 after three withdrawals (Ladbrokes, VC, Sportingbet, Paddy P)
Saturday 28th June - 3.40 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap
Supposedly Good/Firm going, though Windsor make a habit of leaving the taps on. They are using the Stand side half of the course which should favour high drawn runners.
Update - The words “Good in places” have been added to the going description which hints at plenty of watering.
Judd Street, Beaver Patrol, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Nota Bene, Mac Gille Eoin and now Conquest are sometime front runners, but which if any of them will lead is anyone’s guess. Perhaps the most likely is Hoh Hoh Hoh down the stand rail. If I had to bet on the race it would be a tracker drawn high. Ashdown Express and Orpsie Boy may be coming from too far back. Beaver Patrol and Mac Gille Eoin lie prominent and be difficult to pass if they can get to the lead. A sporting bet would be Excusez Moi (22/1 and drawn lucky for some 13) who has the ability, the draw and a useful 5lb claimer fresh from a Royal Ascot winner. EM is very inconsistent but was running a course record at Lingfield only four runs ago.
No Selection
Saturday 28th June - 3.30 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good going, or just on the easy side. There is a false rail in place. These conditions reduce the effect of the draw a little.
Lots of pace in the race as usual at Chester. The fastest front runners are Princess Ellis and Harry Up. However Stolt, Malapropism and Kay Two are also capable of front running at this level. Perhaps second or third rank on the rails will be the best place.
Update - Four of those drawn high have defected. The only influence that will have on the race is Harry Up not contesting the lead. Expect Princess Ellis to get to the rail, though she should be harried all the way. Kay Two has the plumb 1 stall. He is quick, a battler and went very close to winning first time out last year. The downside is his apprentice rider who has not ridden for the trainer, as far as I can see. If he gets out of the stalls well he should get a good pitch and have every chance.
Selection - Kay Two @ 8/1 (William Hill, Paddy Power)