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This betting blog will follow my fortunes through the 2008 season as I try to make some money betting on sprinters
Putting my analysis into the public domain is a way of making sure that I put the effort into analysising races and results which is necessary to make a profit. It is a high risk strategy but produced a profit in 2007.
These days I bet mainly on Grades 1 to 3, occasionally Grade 4 if I know all the horses well. Most of the races will be handicaps. My records show that I do not make a profit on bets under 3/1, so there are unlikely to be any. The majority of bets are likely to be in the range of 5/1 to 12/1. At those odds if you can get one winner every six bets, on average, you are in profit. But of course the large majority of bets are losers and losing runs of 20 plus are not unknown. Such betting is not for the faint hearted. You need self confidence, arrogance if you like, to continue with your methods regardless, knowing that your approach will come good in the end. There are no fun bets. No bets just because there happens to be a good sprint on. Bets at the start of the season are all on the older horses. Knowledge of the three-year-olds accumulates over the season.
If you are new to The Betting Blog you can find out more by looking at the 2007 Archive pages and the 2007 Cumulative Results page. The first archive page (Betting Blog Archive 1 2007) will give you an idea of how I approach the early weeks of the season. Lots of analysis but very little betting, unless something particularly tempting comes along. As a new feature I will keep a Horses To Watch List going. Whilst such lists are of limited betting value it could be worthwhile to see how accurate the Post Mortem conclusions are over time.
The 2008 Flat Racing Season Starts Here :-
The Week Ahead (22nd March)
Sat 22nd - 3.25 Doncaster - 6f Listed - Cammidge Trophy
- 3.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO
- Blackheath - 6.50 Wolverhampton - Class 6 All Weather Handicap
Sun 23rd - 5.30 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 24th - Blank
Tues 25th - Blank
Wed 26th - 3.25 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 9.20 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- Blackheath - 6.50 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 6 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 27th - Blank
Fri 28th - Blank
Sat 29th - 2.55 Dubai - 6f Group One - Golden Shaheen
- 4.10 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 2.40 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
- 4.50 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Sun 30th - Blank
Saturday 22nd March - 3.25 Doncaster - Cammidge Trophy
The going on the straight at Doncaster is currently described as Good/Soft (5.6). Rain is expected on Thursday and the Clerk of the Course is already making noises indicating that he expects the going to be very soft. Well at a reading of 5.6 it already
is. As a rule of thumb always expect softer going in the Spring than the official description.
From the entries it looks like being a large and competitive field. At this time of year ratings count for little. Fitness and going preferences are everything, and we know very little about the current fitness of most of these.
The Cammidge Trophy is a significant race, invariably giving pointers for top races later in the season. So it is worth working hard on it, like last year, but there are many unknowns and so betting is usually not recommended. We shall see what the declarations, draw and weather serve up.
Update - Thursday Evening
This race is a nightmare for the average punter. 18 runners, soft ground, and only 4 runners have raced in the last 4 months.
But they will still bet on it because the horses are well known, it’s the first day of the flat and the odds will seem attractive. These are often bandwagon races. Some aspect of one of the runners chances will stand out as supposedly significant and will lead to many punters choosing that one, in the absence of anything better to guide their choice. A false favourite is quite likely.
The draw is probably not very significant. Anyway the preceding Brocklesby and Spring Mile should give some clue if there is a bias. The best pace in the Cammidge is mainly in the high half of the draw. The most likely front runners are Aahayson (16), Celtic Mill (11) and Hinton Admiral (10), but it would be no surprise to see Strike Up The Band (4), Hoh Hoh Hoh (6), Ripples Maid (15), Tax Free (18) or Knot In Wood (1) close to the pace.
Timeform have Utmost Respect, Advanced and Wi Dud highest rated. Hanaghan is on Utmost Respect in apparent preference to Knot In Wood but I doubt that it is very significant. Callan is on Wi Dud rather than Advanced and this is probably a clear choice. Advanced has been best in the big field fast run handicaps. The computer has Wi Dud improving relentlessly over the last two years and there may be better to come later in the season.
There is a possibility that Aahayson could make all at longish odds down the stand rail. He goes particularly well on soft, and therefore is more likely to have been tuned up for a Spring campaign. Others who like soft/testing conditions are last years winner Rising Shadow, Appalachian Trail (4th 2007), Knot In Wood, Utmost Respect and Lady Grace. Barry Hills is supposed to have a great record at Doncaster but the stats in the last few years don’t support that view. Prime Defender represents him. I don’t think that we saw the best of Prime Defender in the second half of 2007. Just let him bowl along from the stalls please. The hold up tactics have been a failure.
At this early stage my short list in no particular order is - Aahayson, Prime Defender, Rising Shadow, Utmost Respect, Wi Dud.
Friday night update
The anticipated rain has not fallen in the amounts expected and the going description is now Good/Soft (Good in places) with a Going Stick reading of 6.8.
This is not very helpful in terms of sorting out horses particularly favoured by the conditions. In fact it wipes out any enthusiasm I had for putting forward a selection. This is a race to watch and learn from. Market moves could signal confidence stables have in the fitness and improvement of their horses, or they could be based on wholely misguided theories. We won’t know until the race is over.
No Selection.
Celtic Mill has been withdrawn, which helps the other front runners a little.
Post Mortem
On Betfair Aahayson was available at 40 and 42. Which was nice ! Even after a reduction due to the favourite Utmost Respect’s withdrawal the return was 33/1. Showing what value can be available early in the season. Unfortunately the going was not soft enough to have sufficient confidence in Aahayson to put him up as the Selection. Later though the withdrawal of the other main front runner and market support for him 33/1 > 14/1 emphasised his chance of making all.
The computer rates the win very highly. In fact the CRF rating suggests that Aahayson is a Group winner waiting to happen. However there were special circumstances at work in this race and I expect the rating to subside as the season progresses. Aahayson will not find it so easy to win with a Listed penalty, unless a race comes along where he gets an easy lead and particularly good draw, at somewhere like Chester or Beverley.
Sonny Red was put up by Pricewise (2pts) and the market confidence suggested that the stable not only thought he was
100% fit but had improved 3YO > 4YO. I liked the way he ran and they were unlucky to run into Aahayson on the day. With a stronger early pace and/or a stiff finish Sonny Red is one to follow.
Wi Dud had the advantage of tracking Aahayson along the stand rail, but he did not have much room to challenge and could have been a length closer if Callan had wanted. He looks to have come back at least as good as in 2007. Prime Defender also ran well considering he was the only one of the first six to race away from the stand rail. He looked a possible danger approaching the final furlong finding no extra soon after. Most of the others ran as if they needed the race, Ripples Maid being the only one to stay on from the rear.
Sunday 23rd March - 5.30 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
The going is Good at present. There is a field of 14, including five who have been running on the All Weather over the winter. The possible fitness advantage that these five have may make the race of interest.
Post Mortem - I was only able to analyse this one a few hours before the race and soon decided to swerve it. The market choice of Geojimali as favourite was silly. Anyone who remembered last year’s race will have appreciated that Geojimali’s win on that occasion was a bit of a fluke. He is an inconsistent but useful horse, suited by a suicidal pace with the field coming back to him over a stiff 5f or 6f.
Blue Tomato winning was a surprise to me. I have always regarded him as a 6f horse, best held up off a strong pace. The switch from Milton Bradley to Dandy would not have offered much encouragement on the grounds of fitness. Milton’s sprint handicappers nearly always need a run and Dandy’s often need two or three. The way Blue Tomato went over this sharp 5f suggests that we will have to look carefully through his past form and reassess what we expect in future races.
Saturday 29th March - 2.40 Kempton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
A race to be watched with interest for pointers to the future. Due to my general ignorance of 3YO sprint form, for me not a race to have an opinion about. A high draw can be an important advantage over sprint trips at Kempton.
No Selection
Post Mortem
Quite an interesting race. The ones I liked best were Soopacal (a bit unlucky and still ahead of the handicapper), Hammadi (surely destined to be best at 5f) and Chartist (poor draw in 5, still green and sure to do better). The Racing Post liked the winner Vhujon giving him extra credit for coming from the rear and describing him as a Listed contender. I think they have misread the race.
Saturday 29th March - 4.50 Kempton - 6f Class 3 Condition Stakes
This race usually attracts runners who will be of interest to us later in the Spring. Again there is a small field and it would not be a great surprise to see a falsely run race. I liked the look of Edge Closer when he won over course and distance in August. Machinist is fit from two good runs in Dubai and three others have been in form over the winter. Another race to watch rather than bet on.
No Selection
Post Mortem
A very interesting race. Edge Closer and Ceremonial Jade put 6 lengths between themselves, and Machinist and Ajigolo. That has to be significant bearing in mind that the race was run in a course record time. In the first furlong the pace was modest and Edge Closer pulled hard. He will be suited even more when he gets a strong early pace and looks a horse with a very bright future. Edge Closer’s dam won all three of her races and his sire Bold Edge was one of the most admirable sprinters of the last ten years or so. Both were trained by Richard Hannon, as is Edge Closer.
Ceremonial Jade showed a good burst of speed 2f out to take the lead and was only worn down late. It would be no surprise to see him go one better in the next few weeks.
Saturday 29th March - 2.55 Nad Al Sheba, Dubai - 6f Group One on Dirt - The Golden Shaheen
This race is invariably won by an American Dirt horse. There is some good opposition to them this year from UAE trained horses who have been running well at Nad Al Sheba. However five top Americans have been attracted to the big money and I would not be wanting to take them on at their specialism. Which of the Yanks is best I do not know but Benny The Bull has been a warm favourite throughout the run-up to the race.
No Selection
No Post Mortem either. This form is irrelevant to anything we will see in Europe in 2008.
Saturday 29th March - 4.10 Doncaster - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The going was Good/Soft (Good in places on the Straight) yesterday but there has been some rain, and now it is described as Good/Soft (Soft in places on the Round Course). Last week there seemed to be an advantage from running along either rail.
If the rain has got into this used ground it may be better to come down the middle?
The pace should be about average for a Class 2 Handicap. The most likely front runners are High Curragh (Drawn 6), Off The Record (8) and King Orchisios (4). The last named is one of the speediest and most effective front runners in the country over a sharp 5f but connections have been trying to get him to settle and stay 6f with the sort of results you would expect, lousy. So the best pace and the place to get a good tow is likely to be out in the centre.
Blue Tomato is the horse with the best recent form thanks to his unlikely victory over 5f at Musselburgh. The win there seems to have been a case of the horse just coming back to his best with Dandy’s methods producing that form at 5f rather than 6f. For now we must regard him as a 5/6f horse.
Ingleby Arch is on a hatrick but hasn’t run since early February. A few of the field have gone well on their seasonal debut in the past. These include Off The Record, Green Park, Gift Horse and High Curragh.
A clearer indication of the likely going is required to know whether the mudlarks will get their ground. There are several horses in the race who like plenty of cut and/or are favoured by testing conditions. Blue Tomato is probably best on a sound surface.
Altogether this is a difficult race to come to any conclusion about. That may change with more rain and after watching the first three races, which are all on the straight, but I doubt it.
8am Saturday morning update -
The going is now described in the straight as Good/Soft (Soft in places). Going Stick 6.2. This is on the verge of going the way of the mudlarks and if Doncaster gets an appreciable amount of rain between noon and 4.10 the race takes on a different complexion.
So it will be worth following events at Doncaster, especially how the track rides in the first three races.
3pm Update
Conditions are testing. The going is Very Soft bordering on Heavy, about 1 sec per furlong slow, and there is a strong headwind on top of that. On the basis of what we know, and we often do not know if horses go in very testing conditions, the selection comes down to - Zomerlust, Green Park, Masai Moon, Baby Strange and Cape. Several others go on Soft but have so far not signalled a liking for extreme conditions. Amongst these Burning Incense, Obe Gold, Extraterrestial, and River Falcon seem the most likely.
The draw does not seem that important though the fields are coming to the stand rail.
Zomerlust usually needs his seasonal debut, otherwise he would be the selection. Cape has switched stables and Howling’s first time strike rate is poor. Baby Strange has a lot to find on recent form. Masai Moon may need the run and there is no sign of Millman’s stable firing yet. So it comes down to Green Park.
Selection - Green Park at 8/1 (Sportingbet, Paddy Power)
Post Mortem
You have to laugh. Well it is better than crying.
In the previous three races on the straight track 33 horses had hugged the stand rails. Surely some of the jockeys or trainers had walked the course looking for the fastest ground? After all on very soft ground there are huge advantages to be gained if one part of the track is faster than the rest. But No. If they bothered at all they came to the wrong conclusion. The largely ignored far rail must have been 10 lengths faster than the stand rail all afternoon. It makes you weep that the competitors in a supposedly professional sport can be so amateurish. The field in the second division of the 7f Maiden later raced down the centre, without any of them going near the far rail. Unbelievable !!!
Anyway, in this race for the first time horses drawn in the centre stayed there and the two lowest drawn went to the far rail. Horses drawn 1-6 filled the first six places. Pusey Street Lady, from 2lb out of the handicap and carrying another 1lb overweight, a rank outsider at 40/1, but proven on soft ground, was drawn 1, went to the far rail and won by 5 lengths.
Ingleby Arch, usually a hold up horse led overall on the far rail (so much faster was it) but he is not best on soft and faded.
The stand side runners stood no chance including the highest drawn Green Park who was at the back throughout.
The only good thing about races like this is that you know you can ignore the form next time. The horses who did best here will probably be well backed next time thus improving the price of others.
The Week Ahead (30th March)
Sun 30th - Blank
Mon 31st - Blank
Tues 1st - 5.15 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 2nd - 3.10 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 8.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 3rd - 3.20 Leicester - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
- 9.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Fri 4th - 9.20 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- Blackheath - 6.50 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 6 Claimer - Not Declared
Sat 5th - Blank
Sun 6th - Blank
Wednesday 2nd April - 3.10 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
The going is Soft [5.9] and they are using the inner course ie furthest from the stands. Three of the field are no hopers.
Given the right circumstances any of the other five could win.
Reverence had an unsuccessful 2007 after being Champion sprinter in 2006. For him 2007 was spoilt by a ligament injury to a knee he picked up in the Winter. When he finally emerged on the track Eric Alston thought he was close to full fitness but he proved to be undercooked, pressing a very fast pace up the Sandown hill and running out of gas. He then ran a good race over 6f at Ascot in non ideal conditions and was last in the Nunthorpe on going that was too quick and he bled. I think they had in mind to go for the Prix L’Abbaye but opted for giving him a long recuperation instead. He is ideally suited by 5f on very soft ground.
We saw Sonny Red, Strike Up The Band and Hoh Hoh Hoh in the Cammidge Trophy. Sonny Red can handle the conditions but until now he has looked a 6/7f horse and I would not be confident about this sharp test suiting him. He impressed me at Doncaster but I am not impressed by this choice of race for him. Strike Up The Band and Hoh Hoh Hoh handle some ease but have looked better suited by a sound surface. Angus Newz should not be good enough but soft going suits her well and she can be hard to pass if given an easy lead in these conditions.
There should be plenty of pace in the race with Angus Newz, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Strike Up The Band and Reverence all tending to force or press the pace. If Reverence is anything like the horse he was and near full fitness he should win. These are his ideal conditions. Sonny Red may make the market for Reverence but there will be people much better able to judge Reverence’s chance than us. My heart is with Reverence, but my wallet will be staying in my pocket.
No Selection
Post Mortem
Sonny Red scrambled home. The soft going was no problem but the faster tempo of a 5f race had him just about flat to the boards from halfway. Hoh Hoh Hoh ran a super race, only worn down close home. The form is nothing special though. I have the second and third a little below their best, and Sonny Red 7-10 lbs below the form he is capable of at 6f or 7f.
Reverence will have to run very much better than this before you can be confident that he retains most of his ability. He seemed to travel well enough but got left behind very quickly.
Wednesday 2nd April - 8.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Post Mortem - Not a race that I analysed but an interesting one. Misaro went off fast and the hot favourite Diriculous bided his time in mid div. Sat last was Jake The Snake who was heavily backed on track 14/1 > 11/2 second favourite. Diriculous ran a good race and looked the winner, but Jake given plenty to do came with a wet sail up the outside cutting them all down to win by an unlikely but comfortable 3/4 length.
Jake is likely to be a fair bit better than his new mark of 72. He is a horse with an colourful history. A 7YO who has had only three runs !! Once considered a Classic contender by his flamboyant and infamous owner at the time Terry Ramsden. He started by winning an All Weather maiden over a mile. Three years later he appeared in a 10f handicap at Nottingham, where he was a heavily backed favourite, finished 9th and was later disqualified for a banned substance. Then this race at Kempton. Where to next?
Thursday 3rd April - 3.20 Leicester - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes 3YO only
Post Mortem - Another race I did not analyse but a race to take note of. Quiet Elegance, the winner, is a half-sister of Reverence and also trained by Eric Alston. She clearly goes well on soft going, was an unconsidered 22/1 here but has progressed a great deal from 2YO to 3YO. There looks plenty more to come.
Perhaps even more worth following is Inxile. This is a half-brother of Tax Free and also trained by David Nicholls. I was really impressed with the way he ran after pulling furiously for a furlong before Adrian allowed him to stride on. Tax Free is best on a sound surface and Inxile could be the same. Inxile is certainly all speed and looked a nice sort on the video.
Just a note of caution, three of the runners looked to be struggling in the soft ground so assessing the form relies on interpreting how just four horses went and the fourth Victorian Bounty was not allowed to stride on, which seems how she likes to race.
Quiet Elegance was highly tried next time out in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, which did not look realistic. Hopefully we will see her back in soft ground sprints.
The Week Ahead (6th April)
The 2008 Turf Flat Season seems to have degenerated into an All Weather Fest
over the last fortnight but starts to get interesting at the end of this week.
Sun 6th - Blank
Mon 7th - Blank
Tues 8th - Blank
Wed 9th - Blank
Thurs 10th - 3.15 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 11th - 4.25 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sat 12th - 3.05 Doncaster - 5f Class 2 Handicap
Sun 13th - 3.10 Brighton - 6f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
Thursday 10th April - 3.15 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
The going is officially Good/Soft (Soft places) with a Going Stick reading of 5.7
The Going Stick says it is genuine soft ground.
There are two sprints before the 3.15 and although they will probably not help much with the draw they should give accurate guidance about the going.
It is an interesting race with Golden Desert, in particular, worth watching. If I was forced to bet I would be most interested in Nobilissima and Dickie Le Davoir on this going. But we are not forced to bet, so this race is best watched for future soft ground pointers.
2.50pm Update
Forget all the above. It is clear from the first two times that the ground is riding just on the easy side of Good The time will probably be only about 2 secs slow. The place to be is hard against the stand rail, and front running is good. Which is all quite different. The most likely one to fit the bill is probably Mujood who in three runs at Folkestone has finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd.
But it is all guesswork.
No Selection
Post Mortem - Not a result to take too literally. The leaders were going a modest pace until they kicked 2 1/2f out stealing a two length break which saw them home. Having said that Bonnie Prince Blue showed more speed than the others and was well on top at the line. I read that connections think he is best fresh. If true we should be looking for him again after a break.
Mujood was done no favours by Hits Only Jude getting a good start and immediately going across him to the rail, then Nobilissima also coming across into the lead. Mujood was not hampered at all, but he couldn’t run his normal race and was soon off the rail chasing. In the end he finished third staying on best, apart from the winner. He is worth looking out for if a race comes up where he can do his own thing, front rank and not harried.
Friday 11th April - 4.25 Doncaster - 6f Class3 Handicap
The going is Good. Going stick 7.4 which if accurate is only just on the easy side.
It seems unlikely that last weeks extreme draw advantage, which was on very soft ground after the stand side had been heavily used, will be as much in evidence. The earlier races should answer this.
The best pace is far side to centre - Mr Wolf (drawn 2), Bel Cantor (5), He’s A Humbug (8) and Bo McGinty (11).
This could be a race where the pin is mightier than the form book. The horses with recent form are Fyodor, Pusey Street Lady and Bel Cantor. Special Day could be one to watch. He’s A Humbug has won on both seasonal debuts, which is interesting, but his best form so far has been on fast going.
No Selection
Update 2pm
The 1.40 was won in 6 secs slow, suggesting slower than Good going. The jockeys seemed unclear as to which part of the track was quickest, though the majority did not seem to want the stand rail, none went to the fastest strips from the previous meeting. Sigh! Those that came up close to the stand rail did not do that badly.
Update 3pm
The Clerk of the Course overreacted after the first and changed the going description to Good/Soft (Soft places). It isn’t as slow as that, though it may be later. Whilst not yet conclusive it seems to me that the fastest ground is against the far rail, just as it was last week. The courses taken by Bivouac and Blue Spinnaker etc were useful confirmation imo. I have no faith in jockeys or most trainers to work this out, but will be surprised if at least Mr Wolf, Pusey Street Lady and Ice Planet do not go to the far side. If you could get a bet 3/1 stalls 1-5 against the rest it would look extremely good to me at this point in time. What tactics Spencer on Cape will adopt in this race, drawn as he is hard against the stand rail, is just one of many intriguing aspects. Of all the top jocks Spencer is the most likely to veer across the track to find the fastest strip, but perhaps not in a sprint handicap.
Still No Selection
Post Mortem - Sometimes predicting what the jockeys are going to do is the hardest part. Suddenly they all decide to go to the far side of the course. The effect was to virtually nullify any draw advantage, and in the event the far rail was no quicker than the strip just to the far side of centre. Spencer did his usual thing of getting his horse in position and then worrying about the race. Other jockeys could learn a lot from watching the paths he takes on hold-up horses and the even pace he tries to go no matter what the others are doing. Of course Cape is an ideal ride for his methods and on soft going is very useful. How new trainer Howling could have come to the conclusion that she is better on a faster surface defies belief. He only needs to watch her races in sequence, asking himself why in each case, to come to the blindingly obvious conclusion that she is best on soft.
Still Cape was not the only horse of interest. Tajneed looked the likely winner for a while, but did not get much help from the saddle inside the final furlong. Bel Cantor ran a nice race tracking the leaders and looking a danger until finding no extra in the last half furlong. Special Day was making ground until Cape wafted passed him, then Michael Hills seemed to give up hope and rode very gently throughout the final furlong.
I think that we should see some winners come out of this race in the next few weeks.
Saturday 12th April - 3.05 Doncaster - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The going deteriorated during Friday afternoon ending Good/Soft (Soft) with a headwind making it seem worse.
Despite everyone else coming standside or centre/standside the 6f sprinters all aimed for the far side half of the track. So at least somebody was watching. There seemed to be no extra advantage to being right on the far rail. Cape did very well to win from the worst draw.
There is not a massive amount of pace in this, for a high class 5f handicap. The most likely front runners are Cape Royal and Elhamri. Others likely to be prominent are Canadian Danehill, Chief Editor and Malapropism. I think that Cape Royal will try to make all and I see the field coming in a spearhead down the centre.
My short list in no particular order is - Chief Editor (likely favourite), Bond City, Cape Royal, Came Back and River Falcon.
Update 10am
Four withdrawals presumably because of the ground - Matsunosuke, King of Swords, Elhamri and Malapropism. Withdrawals are bad news because they usually have little chance due the ground, yet worsen the odds.
My preference here is for Chief Editor or Cape Royal. Cape Royal is at cracking odds relative to his chance. Milton’s handicappers invariably need their first race but second time out they are often fully primed. Last year in his second race he was our second bet of the season and just thwarted by Pivotal’s Princess at Beverley off the same handicap mark. He then won at Epsom the following week. Some of his best races have been on soft ground. I rate his chance at around 7/1, so the current odds of 16/1 are very generous and I cannot resist them, particularly as he may get an easy lead. The downside is Milton’s record in 2008. No wins yet. This does not put me off on this occasion.
Selection - Cape Royal @ 16/1 (Betfred and VC)
Post Mortem - As for Cape Royal’s performance you could reasonably come to two different conclusions. The charitable conclusion is that connections wanted to race alone perhaps poaching an easy lead, knew that the field were likely to go down the centre, and thought that the stand rail was just as quick. The last part was of course completely wrong, but the first part was a reasonable plan. The uncharitable conclusion is that they were not trying, and raced to lose, choosing what was beforehand was obviously the slowest ground. If so the plan is working as Cape Royal is another 3lbs lower in the handicap. His last two wins were off 90 and he was short headed at Leicester in September off 89. As a result of this race he has dropped to 87.
Chief Editor looked all set to kick clear as he approached the final furlong but Northern Fling came last and widest to mow him down. Both look big progressive 4YOs with plenty more good races in them. Chief Editor in particular is an imposing individual still with only six races behind him. With the form he has and as a son of Tomba there is a strong suspicion that he will always be best on easy ground, but he has plenty of speed and it is too early to be sure yet. His trainer’s record with Benbaun may be pointer towards a bright future for Chief Editor.
Dandy has certainly got his team revved up early this Spring, and Northern Fling is another to run at or near his best first time out. The fact that he was a 20/1 outsider suggests that it was as much a surprise to the stable as the rest of us. He is probably better than he shows at home, judged from what has been said and his betting history (25/1 when he won at York).
Sunday 13th April - 3.10 Brighton - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Only six runners in a Class 2 Handicap, presumably because the meeting has been switched from Great Leighs and Brighton is a lousy track. The going is on the easy side of Good.
Plenty of pace in the race. Angus Newz likes to dominate when she gets the chance, and Bentong and Come Out Fighting will not hang about. Perhaps conditions will best suit Come Out Fighting and Angus Newz.
Update
Come Out Fighting was withdrawn just before noon. There have been one or two hefty showers in the area but whether they reached the course I do not know. As a betting medium the race has very little attraction. Though if it did rain heavily at the course and if enthusiasm for the Paul Cole trained Bentong snowballed, then Angus Newz at 3/1+ would be a good bet.
No Selection
Post Mortem - Not enough rain to inconvenience Bentong. A protracted battle between he and Angus Newz which Richard Quinn made sure started early enough to wear down the filly’s reserves. Good/Soft is probably as soft as Bentong wants it.
Woodcote appeared big and well. Pulled early, a bit temperamental but for me looked better than his finishing position, first time out for his new stable. He has been spending too much time racing at 5f. As a 4YO he looked to have a bright future in top class 6f handicaps and if he retains all his ability can win off his current mark of 88.
The Week Ahead (13th April)
Sun 13th - 3.10 Brighton - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Mon 14th - 4.00 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 15th - Blank
Wed 16th - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 17th - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Abernant Stakes
- 2.45 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 18th - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.15 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 19th - 3.50 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 4.25 Thirsk - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 20th - 2.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Wednesday 16th April - 5.30 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
A race which usually attracts a mixture of prospective top 3YO sprint handicappers and others who are just having prep runs for longer distances. In this race last year Sakhee’s Secret beat Aahayson by 5 lengths, and a good one can easily be lurking in this year’s line-up. Connections may know but we certainly do not. Always an interesting race to watch though.
No Selection.
Post Mortem - No draw advantage with horses on the stand side 1st and 2nd, and those on the far side providing the 3rd and 4th in a close finish. All those four will be of interest next time. Fol Hollow deserves credit for coming close to making
all, with the other three all coming from off the pace. For me Prohibit and Crystany were the pick. Crystany had a slow start, had to wait for a run, got a bit unbalanced but was the only one making up significant ground at the finish. This was only her fifth race and with Henry Cecil training it surely will not be long before she wins again. Top class breeding and an entry in the Group 2 Duke of York are other positives. Prohibit has lots of physical scope and this was only his fourth race, 2 from 2 at 6f. Starting from an average handicap mark and only a length between the first four here he is sure to be well handicapped for a while yet.
.Wednesday 16th April - 3.20 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Soft going. The high draw advantage will probably be as strong as ever. Five of the twelve have raced already this season and How’s She Cuttin and Tabaret have gone well fresh in the past, but Tabaret has a bad draw and How’s She Cuttin has a poor draw so forget those. Fire Up The Band will try to dictate and Melalchrist and Tabaret are also front runners so a good or strong pace is almost guaranteed.
Update
How’s She Cuttin and Dig Deep have been withdrawn. I am not sure that I ever recall a well drawn horse being withdrawn over 5f at Beverley? Anyway this has helped shake the market up.
Luscivious, one of the horses I was interested in is now into 6/1 (compared with the RP Tissue of 11/1) and may get shorter. He has a good draw but a worrying profile. He contested several of the top 3yo handicaps last year running creditably from marks around 90 until midway through the season. Since then his form has been at a lower level. He is small and out of Lloc, who had her best days for Jack Berry at 2YO. Maybe Luscivious was precocious and is not up to this level now? I shall kick myself if he wins.
Caribbean Coral should get the strong pace he needs and the leaders coming back to him. The draw in 7 is not ideal and he may get into a barging match as the hold up horses go for the gaps. Graham Gibbons is one of the most effective jockeys around and I would rather have him on my side than any of the others left in the race.
Come Out Fighting has a nice draw and the tactical speed to sit tracking the pace on the rail. He is definitely overpriced at the available 12/1.
Fire Up The Band has a history of going well fresh and his form tailing off. Dandy used to have to nurse him a bit and that is probably still the case. He has had things all his own way in the last two claimers but here Melalchrist, and possibly Tabaret will harry him all the way. I would steer clear of FUTB.
Melalchrist is a better option to last the trip out imho. He goes well at Beverley on soft ground, has the blinkers back on, will get the rail, at least early. Will he last after battling for the lead with FUTB?
Glasshoughton will probably be better for the run. Wyatt Earp is also having his seasonal debut, with this looking like a prep race for more serious 6f opportunities to come. The others probably have little chance.
It is a tough choice and I may sit this one out.
Post Mortem - Kicking yourself does you no good. You have to be philosophical about this game. Luscivious was handed this race but would have won anyway. Melalchrist dived left out of the stalls squeezing FUTB out and hampering Come Out Fighting and Glasshoughton to a lesser extent. So Luscivious had a perfect uninterrupted passage along the far rail and a nice lead into the business end of the race. Malapropism showed he is as good as ever at 8YO and set a strong pace with Melalchrist. The field were well strung out. FUTB never recovered from his start. COF struggled for pace to get into contention, and that was it really.
Thursday 17th April - 3.10 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Abernant Stakes
The Abernant Stakes is the time that the sprint season really gets going. Last year Asset won from Assertive, and this year again the horses fighting out the finish will be contenders for the top races.
If you could be sure that Dark Missile was 100% wound up for this one then it would be difficult to dismiss her chance. She was only just caught in the Diadem (Group 2) and now has an extra 2lb sex allowance. However so far she and Balthazaar’s Gift have been better for their seasonal debuts. There are a few which are hard to assess - War Artist, Abraham Lincoln, Aeroplane, Per Incanto, Prior Warning - but I would be surprised if any of them is good enough to win on these terms. None of them seems particularly popular in the betting though the Racing Post have tipped Per Incanto on the flimsy evidence of Italian Group form. Bertoliver, Machinist and Evens And Odds look out of their depth. Advanced seems to need the very strong pace he gets in the big handicaps and shows no sign of reproducing his best form in Listed/Group races. Kostar and Excusez Moi do not look to be quite good enough for a strong Listed race.
The going is on the easy side of Good. There will be a headwind. Wednesday’s racing suggested that there was little or no draw advantage to be had from the far rail. The stand rail and far rail groups finished on a par in the 17 runner 3YO 6f handicap, with the 1st and 2nd on the stand side only just in front of the 3rd and 4th on the far side. So I am assuming no draw advantage in the Abernant.
However there is a pace advantage. The most likely front runners are Aahayson (5), Beckermet (7) and Bertoliver (9). Per Incanto (2) made all in his biggest win in Italy. Dark Missile (12) often presses the pace and Assertive (11) can race prominently. The distribution of pace would seem to favour stalls 4-10, and Prime Defender’s (18) best bet would be to do his own thing over on the far rail. Aahayson had the advantage of dictating down the stand rail on his favourite going in the Cammidge Trophy. He has a 4lb penalty for that, and no special advantage tomorrow. In the circumstances I expect Sonny Red to beat both Aahayson and Prime Defender. It is very unlikely that Beckermet will get an easy lead, so his chance is modest. Indian Trail did not go particularly well in Dubai and will have to be at his absolute peak to take a hand. Assertive (2nd in 2007) and Zidane have tough tasks first time out, but I would certainly not dismiss either of them.
All things considered I think Sonny Red must have a good chance. The fact that he scrambled home over 5f at Nottingham is no argument against him. It seemed to me that he did well to overcome his lack of 5f pace there. His performance at Doncaster where he was always in close touch confirmed his credentials for winning a 6f Listed race. He went like the best horse in that race yet is 10/1 fifth favourite with Ladbrokes overnight. In my opinion he deserves to be favourite.
Selection - Sonny Red @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes)
Post Mortem - A Listed race with considerable strength in depth. In the pre-parade ring the ones that stood out most were Advanced, Prime Defender and Dark Missile, who is a very strongly made filly, carrying plenty of condition on her seasonal debut. Zidane, lengthy, somewhat dip-backed, iridescent coat as usual looked very well, and so did Sonny Red, strong and compact and in top condition.
As expected it paid to be following the fastest front runners down centre to stand side. So the six who went far side were at a disadvantage including Advanced and Prime Defender. I would rate their efforts worth at least 5lb more than the bare form. It was Advanced’s best effort out of handicap company.
Once the front runners Beckermet then Evens And Odds had shot their bolts, there was a sort of slipstreaming effect down the centre as first Sonny Red, then Dark Missile, Assertive and last and decisively Zidane hit the front. I keep thinking that Zidane has been lucky that things went his way, but he is making a habit of it. He still has some way to go to reach the standard usually required to win Group races, but he and Spencer make a very effective partnership that is hard to beat. Assertive was giving 4lbs to Zidane and Sonny Red. He looked a bit dull in his coat as if he might be better for the race but Ryan Moore got a career best out of him, despite missing the break. Richard Hughes seemed reluctant to use his whip on Sonny Red and only did so after Dark Missile went passed with 1/2f to go. Sonny Red was rallying close home.
Dark Missile is a super looking filly. I have seen very few as strongly made. I doubt that she was fully fit this day, as she was carrying condition. It is going to be difficult for anything to beat her in fillies Group races and perhaps only the Group One males will be able to concede her an allowance.
Lastly a mention for War Artist. Due to his South African Grade One penalty he was giving lumps of weight away. He travelled well enough through the race but got held up behind horses between 2f and 1f out. Once he got clear he made up ground on the rest of the field, perhaps even the front four, and without strong riding finished best of all. Now sometimes a horse getting a breather while held up helps them to make another effort and is misleading, but I would rate him 6 or 7lb better than the bare result. In the pre-parade ring he looked big and strong without quite having the quality of the best. However the way he ran in the Abernant suggests that he will be a contender in Group races over here.
Friday 18th April - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 Handicap
A high class sprint handicap between horses rated 90 -102. The going is Good/Soft in the straight.
They will probably come down the stand rail, but sometimes they come down the centre. Despite the King of Newbury (sic) Willie Carson telling us for as long as I can remember that the stand rail is the place to be, it doesn’t make a lot of difference, and the centre may be best on soft ground.
Conquest is nowhere near as good as his Listed win at Lingfield implies, or his Gimcrack Stakes win for that matter. I think that he has very little chance of winning a competitive handicap off a rating of 102. He is a false favourite and laying him for a place on Betfair would be my idea of a good bet on him.
Oldjoesaid is vying for favouritism and I assume that Henry Candy has him fairly straight. He is a horse to be interested in this season but I have my doubts about first time out. Five of the others are also on their seasonal debut and from their records I would expect most of them to give a good account first time out, but there is nothing there to suggest that they will be on absolute top form.
Stoneacre Lad showed that he has quite an engine in winning the Hong Kong Jockey Club sprint. He looks to have come back this season in good shape judging from his 3rd behind Conquest. I would fancy him to reverse the form with Conquest even on the same terms, yet he gets 7lb here.
There is one I fancy more though, and that is King Orchisios. He won two Listed races at Lingfield just a year ago, went very high in the handicap (108) but won again off 93 at Catterick beating Oldjoesaid. He impressed me behind Pusey Street Lady in conditions I thought far too testing for him. He has a nice centre draw, could make all, or just stay in touch. He and Oldjoesaid are weighted to dead heat, and Oldjoesaid will probably go on to better things. But today it is King Orchisios at a tempting price.
Selection - King Orchisios @ 7/1 (Betfred)
Post Mortem - There was plenty of market support for Oldjoesaid during the day. The origin of market moves is often wrongly attributed to the connections of well backed horses, but in Oldjoesaid’s case I expect that the support did come from stable confidence. It is now clear for the rest of us that Oldjoesaid has improved over the winter and was close to full fitness for his seasonal debut. He will be a contender in 5f Group races starting with the Palace House Stakes, though needs to improve some more, which is entirely possible.
Jamie Spencer turned out not to be a very good choice for King Orchisios. Making the running detached a little from the others with Oldjoesaid in tow Spencer needed to kick on 2f out, or even before that. Instead he waited in front until the others were almost upsides. King Orchisios just plugged on one pace, as you would expect of him ridden that way. No matter, he almost certainly would not have been able to hold Oldjoesaid at bay anyway.
Fullandby has returned in good shape, and The Trader may have a better 2008 than 2007, though I would not want to bet on
it.
Saturday 19th April - 3.50 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes - Michael Foster Memorial
On form this is a two horse race between Wi Dud and Utmost Respect, and Wi Dud should win it. The prices are too short for me to be interested in a bet.
No Selection
Post Mortem - Rating the race, as best you can, around Big Timer and Ebraam, it is clear that Utmost Respect did not have to show his best to win this comfortably. Conditions were in his favour and he went easily enough most of the way. It would be a mistake though to assume he has improved, at least from this evidence. Wi Dud had a stinker , at least 20lb below the form he showed at Doncaster, and 30lb below his best.
Saturday 19th April - 4.10 Naas - 5f Listed - Woodlands Stakes
Tax Free and Reverence take on some Irish sprinters, the best of which are Snaefell (useful on v.soft) and Benwilt Breeze (2nd Ayr Gold Cup). Worth a look.
Post Mortem - The going was described as Yielding. Tax Free is not at his best on softish ground and is a sitting duck for a mudlover like Snaefell to grind him down. Snaefell probably did manage a career best and in future will always be a contender at 5f or 6f in testing conditions. Reverence put in the performance of a 95-100 handicapper and it is beginning to look like he will never return to the magnificent Reverence of 2006. It’s a shame !
The Week Ahead (20th April)
Sun 20th - 2.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Mon 21st - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Tues 22nd - 3.25 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 23rd - 4.05 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 9.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 24th - 5.50 Great Leighs - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 6.50 Great Leighs - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Fri 25th - 2.25 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 26th - 2.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.45 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 27th - Blank
Sunday 20th April - 2.40 Great Leighs - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
It will certainly be interesting to see how the new track rides, whether there is any draw advantage and what sort of horses are suited. Tempting to get involved, but not advisable. Esteem Machine had strong form in good quality handicaps in 2007 and his recent second to Vitznau reads well. He is an uncomplicated horse and has Ryan Moore on his side, but I’m not sure that his form justifies a price of around 5/4. Forest Dane at 12/1 each way would be a better value bet if there are no withdrawals.
No Selection
Post Mortem - What pleases the Newmarket trainers about the Great Leighs track is what makes me think I will rarely bet there. It looks like becoming an entirely fair track with wide sweeping turns, and minimal draw or pace advantage.
Monday 21st April - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Genuine Good/Soft going in all probability. The pace is likely to be average with the most likely front runners Bel Cantor and High Curragh. The pace is not likely to be sufficiently fast or the conditions sufficiently testing to suit the likes of Skhilling Spirit, Rising Shadow or Zomerlust. Steenberg has needed a pipe opener in previous years. Distinctly Game will probably find it a little too testing, and is 2lb out of the handicap. Bel Cantor is 6lb out of the handicap. Fayr Jag would prefer a sound surface and probably needs the run.
This all whittles the list of contenders down to eight. Which is still too many to have achieved much by the process of elimination. So the ones that strike me as the most likely winners are Genki, Stevie Gee and Turnkey. Genki because he was one of those 3YOs on the upgrade who were so successful last season and he has the substance to keep improving this year, and from a top sprinting stable. Drawn 1 and plenty of tactical speed can only help. Stevie Gee impressed over 7f last time, just coming out on top, but the front pair clear. Only 6lb higher here he travels strongly, and obviously has the speed for 6f, and should be finishing well up the Ponte hill. The high draw is a negative. Turnkey is best on easy ground, finished well at Doncaster from an unpromising position, the stable is in good form, and he won over course and distance last year, with the same jockey from the same handicap mark.
Selection - Turnkey @ 12/1 (Betfred)
Update - Everymanforhimself was withdrawn yesterday. Bel Cantor has now been withdrawn. Which is a pity. I expected Bel Cantor to force the pace and now there is only High Curragh left of the natural front runners. One can never be sure but it does not augur well for a decent pace, and as Turnkey tends to come wide from the back it could be a problem.
Post Mortem - A great relief to get a good priced winner on the board this early in the season. The 12/1 price was only there for an hour up to 9am, but 10/1 was available for most of the morning.
The withdrawal of Bel Cantor nearly ruined the race for the hold up horses. High Curragh only made it an ordinary gallop and when Genki and Stevie Gee came passed him entering the final furlong it looked like they had the race between them. Before racing Clerk of the Course Norman Gundill had told us on RUK that the final mile was just on the easy side of Good (despite a Going Stick reading of 5.9). Luckily this turned out to be patent nonsense, and the going was genuinely Soft as indicated by the Stick. The Ponte hill and the soft ground enabled Turnkey and Damika to come with a long run down the outside and reach the leaders in the last few strides. Turnkey got it on the nod.
The horse to take out of the race is Genki. A grand effort on his seasonal debut, just running out of steam inside the final 1/2f. It will take a well handicapped horse to beat him next time if meeting less testing conditions.
Sadly the race saw the demise of Fayr Jag. With the blindfold on he charged the back of the stalls and did himself a serious injury. He was a horse I enjoyed watching race but could never work out betting wise. In that he was far from being alone, but I shall still miss him.
Wednesday 23rd April - 4.05 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Nottingham sprint handicaps are rarely as interesting as this one. Chief Editor is on the A List. There is Luscivious who teased us at Beverley and still looks quite well weighted with a 6lb penalty. Cape Royal now 3lb lower and likely to win one soon. Baby Strange, 2nd to Cape at Doncaster ahead of Tajneed (won since), Turnkey (won since) and Damika (beaten on the nod since). How’s She Cuttin who won first time out in 2007 and ducked a poor draw at Beverley, and Fantasy Explorer, a very likeable type, who looked destined for good things as a 3YO in 2006. The Racing Post betting forecast will decide whether this is a betting race, as that will be the basis for early Betfair trading, which in turn will largely determine the bookmakers early prices. That is the way things are in the Betfair age.
Update - The early prices and Betfair suggest that Chief Editor will not be any bigger than 6/4. I certainly wouldn’t bet at that sort of price. Nor would I oppose Chief Editor in a hurry, as everything looks right for him. Luscivious (9/2) and Cape Royal (14/1) are plausible alternatives at the prevailing odds. It is raining and if it were to become very soft and testing then
Baby Strange (13/2) would have to come into calculations, despite a normal 5f looking too sharp for him.
Post Mortem - The first five separated by only 1 3/4 lengths. The time suggests that the going was nearer Soft, than Good/Soft.
Chief Editor duly won with Spencer using his normal hold up methods. Safe passage through the gaps was not guaranteed and CE got a tap on the nose with a whip at one point, but once he got into the gap the result was not in doubt. His short term progress is probably ground dependant, and if we have a normal May, you could see him being put away, before too long, for an Autumn campaign. I think he will continue to progress over time but I will take him off the A List for now.
There seemed to be some advantage from racing near the stand rail. Perhaps that is why Canadian Danehill did better than expected on going softer than seemed ideal for him. Bond City showed a bit more than for a while racing wide of the rail.
Cape Royal had an easy lead again and is coming back to form, without showing the explosive pace he sometimes can. He will have finished too close to come down any further in the handicap. Luscivious and Baby Strange looked to be disadvantaged by the draw.
The Post Mortem Ones To Watch List (March/April) (Greyed out horses removed from list following last run)
(Wealth Warning - This is not a recommendation to back these horses. That depends on what race they are in and many other factors)
A List
Edge Closer, Jake The Snake, Inxile, Chief Editor, Prohibit, Crystany, Corrybrough
B List
Ceremonial Jade, Diriculous, Quiet Elegance, Bonnie Prince Blue (best fresh), Tajneed, Northern Fling, Woodcote, Fol Hollow, Dark Missile, Advanced, Oldjoesaid, Genki, Chartist, Good Gorsoon
Horses To Avoid
Conquest
Friday 25th April - 2.25 Sandown - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Good/Soft going. These days it seems to be important over the Sandown 5f as to whether there is a false running rail or not up the far side. Without the false rail there is a fast strip. When the false rail is in place the fast strip is removed. Though Sandown have tried to eliminate the traditional high draw bias that let horses like Perryston View, Celtic Mill and Sierra Vista make all up the far rail to win the Group 2 Temple Stakes, they have only succeeded to a limited extent. In it’s place they have introduced this false rail uncertainly. From the information available the race tomorrow will be run over the full course width. Therefore a high draw may be important.
Fol Hollow is on the B List and the David Nicholls stable is in excellent early season form. The problem is that he is drawn 4 of 11. Drawn 11 is Corrybrough a twice raced Henry Candy trained halfbrother of Artie and Kingscross. Apparently he is an excellent sprinting type with lots of scope. If he is backed, as Oldjoesaid was the other day, then the probability is that he has come on a bundle since last seen in October. This is the thing with early season 3YOs we just don’t know. Soopacal and Chartist are others who have been favourably mentioned above.
No Selection.
Post Mortem - Corrybrough was very impressive in the final 1 1/2 furlongs. Whilst he struggled to go the early pace Henry Candy put that down to rustiness. In a very upbeat interview afterwards he pointed to the fact that Corrybrough did the same in his debut run yet was keen in his second race once he had learnt what was required. Of course it all depends what pace they are going but I will go along with the idea that he will be sharper if he takes his chance in the Scurry Stakes over 5f at Sandown on 14th June. To me he looked like a typical 6f horse faced with the faster tempo of a decent 5f pace, and he might be better off going for the Carnarvon at Newbury or Sandy Lane Stakes at Haydock. Candy also agreed that Corrybrough is best suited by easy ground. Most telling in the interview was Henry Candy’s willingness to have Corrybrough spoken of in the same terms as Kyllachy. Candy knows exactly what is required in competing for the top sprints, not only with Kyllachy but also with Airwave, perhaps the best sprint filly since Lochsong, but unfortunate in having to chase Oasis Dream and Choisir in 2003. Corrybrough is a big scopey powerful sprinter who made this useful field look puny. He goes on the A List.
Fol Hollow got the usual Adrian Nicholls treatment which sometimes works spectacularly well at Chester but was doomed to failure up the Sandown hill. He was done with 1f out and soon spat out the back. Look for Fol Hollow when he can cruise along in front, preferably over 6f. Chartist was going beautifully until Corrybrough powered up to him. He will win a 5f handicap and will appreciate a sharp track. He is added to the B List. As is Good Gorsoon who did not get a clear run and was hampered trying to make ground from the back, but for which might well have got in the first three. The other interesting thing about Good Gorsoon is that he was a very late foal, 23rd May, and they often progress more than the average 3YO.
Saturday 26th April - 2.45 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Good/Soft going, but starting to dry out.
Folkestone winner Bonnie Prince Blue returns after just a 16 day break. Looking at his record he does go well fresh but there is nothing to suggest that he has to have a long break between races. As the B List entry suggests he has a very reasonable chance of following up. Several of the others will find the going to their liking and it is an open race.
The Week Ahead (27th April)
Sun 27th - Blank
Mon 28th - 3.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 7.10 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 29th - 4.40 Bath - 5f Fillies Listed
Wed 30th - 4.30 Ascot - 6f Listed 3YO only
Thurs 1st - 5.30 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Fri 2nd - 3.50 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 3.10 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 All Weather handicap 3YO only
Sat 3rd - 4.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Heritage Handicap
- 7.20 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.15 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.05 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.55 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 4th - 3.55 Newmarket - 5f Group 3 - Palace House Stakes
- 2.24 Salisbury - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
Monday 28th April - 3.30 Yarmouth - 6f Class 2 Handicap
The Clerk of the Course at Yarmouth describes the going as Good/Firm, but the Going Stick reading is 8.0, which means it is Good. Yarmouth is a course where they habitually overwater and describe dead ground as Good. It is becoming fashionable but it is a curse to anyone with a fast ground horse.
So tomorrow there is a certain dilemma in opposing horses that need easy ground in the 3.30. There are a couple who will probably be prominent in the betting. Cape is best on Soft ground, and has not performed to the same level on ordinary Good ground. Royal Rock’s best form has also been on give.
Classic Encounter is a speedy 5f horse. Fyodor also seems to be best at 5f. Orpenindeed’s has been running on the AW with credit off similar marks but has had a four month break. Ajigolo seems to have lost his form in the last two runs.
Which leaves Ingleby Arch and Blue Tomato, both in form and with near ideal conditions if the going is really Good or slightly faster?
Update - The Going Stick is now at 8.5 and afternoon showers a little less likely than seemed the case yesterday. It should be a sunny day until mid afternoon. Unfortunately the consequence is that Cape has just been withdrawn, which takes a large chunk out of the prices. Very annoying.
Selection - Blue Tomato @ 4/1 (Paddy Power)
Tuesday 29th April - 4.40 Bath - 5f Fillies Listed
Dark Missile will be around Evens. If she races close to her normal form she will win. With Morinqua in the field there is sure to be a good pace. The going is OK. The outside draw is an advantage. Buick cannot claim, which is a disadvantage, but she is way clear on ratings. That is the good news.
Update - The bad news is that heavy rain is on its way, which may change the ground from just on the easy side of Good to something less suitable. She raced in the Abernant only 12 days ago and Andrew Balding points out in the RP that they have spaced out her races before. Indeed reading her form with this in mind her very best form has been after 4 weeks or more gaps between races. There is also a slight question mark over the 5f trip and the fact that Dark Missile can throw in the occasional stinker.
Watching the weather at Bath could reap rewards if they do get heavy rain. Dark Missile will then drift in the betting, and a Lay > Back would be logical if the rain is only moderate, or backing an alternative selection who goes well on Good/Soft > Soft could be the way to go. Further update to come.
Update - They have had plenty of rain, and there is good reason to oppose Dark Missile in the circumstances. The one I like best in these conditions is Ripples Maid.
Selection - Ripples Maid @ 12/1 (Stan James, Betfred, Bet Direct)
Post Mortem - Annoying ! I had a choice of two and picked the wrong one.
Despite knowing Morinqua well I still did not give her credit for being able to make all up the Bath hill in soft ground. Of course she came over to the stand rail and on the faster strip was very hard to catch. Dark Missile, below par in the conditions, could not manage it and nor could anything else. Ripples Maid just did not have the pace and lost out in a barging match with Dark Missile as well.
It is not much consolation but as the rain fell Ripples Maid’s price collapsed from 12/1 down to 9/2 and Morinqua’s went in the other direction, out to 8/1.
Wednesday 30th April - 4.30 Ascot - 6f 3YO Listed - Pavilion Stakes
A really interesting 3YO race. Prohibit on the A List takes part but has a tough task. I imagine Fat Boy will be difficult to beat, especially if he gets an easy lead.
We do not know any more about most of these than the next punter, so no bet.
Friday 2nd May - 3.50 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
It is not often that we are treated to the extremes of British sprinting in one race. Prix de l’Abbaye winner and last year’s Nunthorpe second Desert Lord, plus Group placed Borderlescott take on Alfie Lee, two other no hopers and some useful in-betweenies. Since somehow winning his third start as a 2YO Alfie Lee has not been in the first three in 58 attempts over nine seasons of racing. Even off his lowest mark in a handicap, which was 37, he still came 15th of 15. If he could run off 20 he still wouldn’t win. Occasionally from a stone or two out of the handicap he gets close enough to lift his handicap mark back into the 40s again, but don’t be fooled he is nowhere near as good as that.
Why is Alfie running? Well there is a 6th prize of £234 and someone’s got to win it. I doubt whether the bookies will take bets on that though. Or the distance beaten. Say 100 difference in handicap mark = 33 lengths (at 3lb per length) = 6 seconds. I think Alfie will finish closer than that. To do it he will have to run at least 90% of the speed of the Group horses. That is the difference between the very best and very worst. So Alfie isn’t that bad and still an athlete deserving respect in my book. How many people could run at 90% of the speed of Asafa Powell? [9.74secs World record for 100 metres]
The race looks between Desert Lord and Borderlescott, though you could not entirely discount the chances of Canadian Danehill or Fathom Five. Desert Lord is ideally suited by a fast surface. Borderlescott rarely races at anything other than 6f. So there are reasons for expecting the big two to be below their best.
So plenty to interest and amusement, but no bet.
Post Mortem - The going was much too soft for Desert Lord, so Borderlescott had a fairly simple task. I believe that he will prove vulnerable at 5f if connections are tempted to go that way again. Alfie Lee finished 32 1/4 lengths and just over 6 seconds behind the winner.
Saturday 3rd May - 4.00 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 Heritage Handicap
A cracking renewal of this, the first big sprint handicap of the season. The weather could well be an important factor and there are still 40 hours to go as I write this, but it looks like there will be a bet in this race.
Explanation later.
Selection - Genki @ 8/1 (Stan james, BetDirect)
Update 8.45 - The 8/1, which turned out to be the general price but tricky to get, has just about dried up now. Bits and pieces only around eg Boylesports. The reason being a 2 point Pricewise tip.
I thought that Genki’s run at Ponte was an indication of further improvement. He came to win the race but a combination of unsuitable soft ground and lack of fitness on his seasonal debut found him out. Arguably it was still as good as any form he has shown. He improved all the way through last season, staying ahead of the handicapper, and it is highly likely that he improved further over the winter. The stable have not had a great start to the season but that just adds credence to the opinion that Genki needed his first race of the season.
Other improving 4YOs have obvious claims. Northern Dare ran very well in Ireland a month ago, and if he is as good on todays faster surface as he is on very soft going he will be quite hard to beat. King’s Apostle finished the season winning four out of five races all handicaps. In the one he didn’t win he was well beaten by Genki and now meets on similar terms. King’s Apostle does not look so well handicapped now.
Tajneed won very easily at Ripon but the handicapper put him up 13lb for that and the suspicion is that Tajneed is at his very best on the soft.
The other horse near the top of my short list is Bonus. He is rated 17lb higher on the AW than he is on turf. As a younger horse he made his name on turf and has plenty of good form on Good/Firm and Good. However he has not shown anything like his best form on turf for several years, and perhaps there is a physical cause. Generally speaking it does not pay to take a punt on such horses.
The going has dried out, which will suit Genki. Those who have followed this race for many years will remember the draw advantages have been important at times. But these days I do not believe there is any advantage most of the time. Rather in big fields it is worth looking for pace advantages. A concentration of front runners or the fastest front runner drawn on either wing can be a powerful help in a large field handicap. However there are no horses who blaze off in front in this field, and the likeliest front runners are Beaver Patrol (4), Off The Record (13) and Northern Dare (25), with Hinton Admiral (3), and possibly Galeota (7) pressing the pace. If there is a pace advantage it is low. Genki is drawn in the middle and will probably settle for tracking Off The Record.
Post Mortem - Genki was not at his best but it was a tough race with some fine performances. The going was just on the easy side of Good. Those who raced in the stand side group were at a disadvantage. So Knot In Wood who did much the best of that group ran a fine race. Baby Strange ran on strongly on the far side.
Saturday 3rd May - 4.15 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
This race includes five front runners. In order of most likely to lead - Cape Royal, Stolt, Corridor Creeper, Malapropism and Elhamri. This alone is reason to look for a hold-up horse to take advantage of what may be a suicidal pace. A draw off the rail and ability to go well on Good/Soft are other requirements.
Woodcote is on the B List, and has suitable conditions. I am worried that he may not be 100% yet, but at 10/1 maybe he is worth a bet? Digital will probably get too far behind, Lord of the Reins was outpaced at Great Leighs, took an age to get into contention and is now effectively 7lb higher. Dazed and Amazed is better on AW / fast turf. Safari Mischief would prefer faster conditions and there is nothing in his form to suggest that he will win first time out.
Of the front runners I would prefer the stablemates Corridor Creeper and Cape Royal. Stolt had the Thirsk stand rail to run up for his win last time, and therefore was probably flattered a bit.
Using a process of elimination you can eliminate all of them. Perhaps that is the best way to look at it. Something has to win and it’s anyone’s guess.
Post Mortem - Safari Mischief and Lord of the Reins were well on top, 2 1/2 lengths clear. The handicapper will give them both a hike in the ratings but that may not be enough to deny further success. Stolt and Cape Royal went too fast in front.
Saturday 3rd May - 7.20 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The going is just on the easy side of Good. The draw advantage at the last meeting on soft ground was all over the place, but you would expect a field of this size to either race together down the stand rail or all go towards the centre. As the best pace looks to be amongst the high numbers they will probably stay near the stand rail. Distinctly Game, drawn 1, might have gone off towards the middle/far side, but he is out of the race.
Nobilissima is only 2lb higher for winning at Leicester. There she rallied pleasingly to get back up to beat that old shirker Swinbrook, with Cornus bearing down on them from well behind. Doncaster is more in her favour than theirs so I do not see why she shouldn’t do it again. Turnkey will not find conditions sufficiently testing. Geojimali is a bit of a threat but the pace will be moderate with hopefully Nobilissima making all down the stand rail.
Selection - Nobilissima @ 11/2 (William Hill, Blue Square & Betfred)
Post Mortem - Nobilissima was never going that comfortably and we knew our fate fairly early. The race may have come a bit quickly after the last, though there did not appear to be any clues in that regard in her record. Joseph Henry did well, looking the winner until Geojimali loomed up. Dandy has him in good shape, but he is likely to go up a few pounds for this. King of Swords would have been closer with a clear run.
Sunday 4th May - 3.55 Newmarket - 5f Group 3 - Palace House Stakes
Hughie Morrison has brought Sakhee’s Secret out surprisingly early in the season. Group One winners have to give chunks of weight away in Group Threes. So it is interesting that he has choosen this time and 5f. The likely ground conditions must have played an important part in the decision. The fact that the Temple Stakes is now at the dreaded Haydock will have been a factor too.
I expect Sakhee’s to have improved. Whether he will be as effective over 5f we will see. He has not looked blessed with an excess of early speed so far, but I do not imagine that Morrison will be going into this race without preparing Sakhee’s specifically for it.
Zidane’s sister Frizzante won this in 2004 in the last stride before going on to win the July Cup. Until Zidane proves he has the speed to win a Group race over 5f I will prefer the evidence of my own eyes that he needs every yard of 6f. The pace in this race should be reasonably strong. Captain Gerrard is a habitual front runner. Judd Street and Reverence are likely to be close up or pressing the pace. Although they will not be hanging about I do not see them coming back to Zidane as they do in the big field handicaps, and this year in the Abernant.
Enticing’s form seems to show a very direct correlation between the going and performance. She would be the selection, getting 11lb from Sakhee’s over 5f, if it was firm, but it isn’t. Rowe Park improved from being a 55 handicapper to Group 3 winner (from Enticing and Judd Street) in less than a year. He was still improving quickly at the end of last season so there is every reason to believe that he will return better still. There is nothing in his form that can help us as to his likely fitness first time out. Judd Street’s progress was less spectacular but nevertheless very solid ending in a Listed race victory by a neck over Rowe Park on 3lbs better terms than today’s race. Judd Street goes well fresh.
Judd Street and Rowe Park pose more of a threat to Sakhee’s than the betting indicates. But there is masses of guesswork involved and so this is not a race for us.
No Selection
Post Mortem - The going was slower than the official description of Good/Firm. Captain Gerrard did better than I thought he would, but he did have things in his favour given a fairly easy lead running down the stand rail. Nevertheless he fought off determined challenges from Enticing and then Sakhee’s. He broke well and sustained a good pace throughout. As suspected Sakhee’s was a little down on his best over a trip that was too sharp. Hughie Morrison did say that he expected Sakhee’s to be beaten. Personally I thought his effort was very encouraging for further Group One wins over 6f on fast going. Enticing could have done with faster ground. When she gets it she will win a nice race. Matsunosuke somehow managed to come 4th and was probably flattered by going an even pace with a good tow and shelter, against horses running uneven fractions into a headwind. Matsunosuke could be a false favourite if he goes in a handicap next.