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The Week Ahead (31st May)
Sun 31st - 5.10 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.40 Chantilly - 5f Group 2 - Prix du Gros-Chene
Mon 1st - 3.40 Naas - 5f Listed - Naas Sprint Stakes
- 7.25 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.55 Windsor - 6f Listed - Leisure Stakes
Tues 2nd - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 3rd - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.40 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 4th - 6.45 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.00 Leopardstown - 6f Group 3 Fillies - Ballyogan Stakes
Fri 5th - 3.35 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.35 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 6th - 3.00 Epsom - 5f Heritage Handicap - The Dash
- 5.05 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.20 Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap - Scottish Sprint Cup
- 4.05 Musselburgh - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.45 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Maiden
Sun 7th - Blank
Monday 1st June - 7.55 Windsor - 6f Listed - Leisure Stakes
A race riddled with uncertainty as far as the British runners are concerned. Intrepid Jack goes best chasing a fast pace which he is unlikely to get. Edge Closer is out of form. Icelandic needs soft going. Genki has been off a long time. Sohraab is probably not good enough to trouble the South African. So in all probability the result will be difficult to interpret.
Tuesday 2nd June - 3.30 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going.
A race with limited betting appeal. Though most of the field have yet to hit form this season the threat is there that they will. . Excusez Moi is on a roll with the look of a horse that will not be quickly stopped by weight rises. Now 10lb higher than when winning over the same course, distance, and going a month ago. The pace should be strong with Bel Cantor and High Curragh in the field. That should suit Vhujon also but Excusez Moi can cruise in the middle of the pack and burrow through at the furlong marker, as he did at Beverley.
Selection - Excusez Moi @ 5/1 (Betfair at 3.20pm)
Wednesday 3rd June - 3.50 Ayr - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Fast going. Racing towards the far side. Not much pace in the race by quick 5f standards. Poor stuff for Class 3.
Thursday 4th June - 7.00 Leopardstown - 6f Group 3 Fillies - Ballyogan Stakes
This race is only of any betting interest because it includes one of our very best sprint fillies, Lesson In Humility.
Pursuit of Glory was third in the Cheveley Park and contested the Breeders Cup Juvenile and 1,000 Guineas so must be considered by her connections to be high class. However she is dropping back 2f in trip and taking on a fast front runner who will have most of these off the bridle well before the final 2f. There are some other useful fillies in the race but they either look to need further, need soft going, or are not good enough. If Lesson In Humility travels over to Ireland well and is on her usual form she will be very hard to beat. Hopefully Pursuit of Glory will be well supported by the locals and will make the market.
Friday 5th June - 3.35 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Not the type of race I would usually be interested in although the Catterick 6f has a good low draw advantage to give some shape to a race. Fast going, with rain threatened but probably only light rain by race time..
Novellen Lad is a half brother to Ellens Academy and Ellens Lad, high class sprinters who progressed with age to be at their best at 6YO and 7YO. Invincible Lad is following in the family footsteps and Novellen Lad is likely to as well. He was a late foal (21st May) and I have noticed many such sprinters who improve more than the norm as 3YO and 4YOs. He had only a light 2YO and 3YO career. After showing plenty of speed at Newmarket he’s now being brought back to 6f. He is one of those horses who is highly likely to show improvement soon but is under the public radar at present. He seems to need fast ground and judged on Newmarket can lead here unless one of the others particularly wants to. His 1 draw should be a help.
Wyatt Earp and Johannes set a good standard so Novellen Lad will have to improve a bit to win. But they should be coming from behind Novellen Lad and he will be difficult to pass.
Selection - Novellen Lad @ 13/2 (Victor Chandler, Totesport, Skybet, Paddy P)
Saturday 6th June - 3.00 Epsom - 5f Heritage Handicap - The Dash
Going just on the fast side of Good. High draw best.
There is masses of pace in the centre of the draw. The fastest front runners are Merlins Dancer (7), Desert Lord (8), Strike Up The Band (11), and Captain Dunne (12). Not far behind will be Wotashirtfull (9) and Siren’s Gift (14). Other speedy horses include Fol Hollow, Cake and Elhamri. One of the front runners will do very well to get their head in front of that lot and hold on. Conversely there are very few hold up horses. Hogmaneigh and Indian Trail are the only ones that really fit that description. The rest are chasers. A hold up horse following that wall of front runners would be the obvious answer but I think Hogmaneigh (13) has a big task off 104 even with a claimer taking off 5lb and Indian Trail at 9YO seems to be deteriorating in line with his handicap mark. Little Pete (10) is a possible if he can stay in touch with the very fast horses that will be giving him a tow.
The best handicapped horse and the best drawn horse is arguably Wi Dud (20). He goes up 5lb for his close 3rd in the Temple Stakes after this race and his next race is due to be the King’s Stand. So Kevin Ryan will be trying to strike with the handicap mark while the iron is hot. Wi Dud does not have the ideal profile for this race, which is usually won by a front runner dominating or a hold up horse weaving through as the field stop in front of him. However there have been exceptions. Last year Holbeck Ghyll was settled in touch and Atlantic Viking chased to win in 200.
As I have chosen front runners the last four years with three seconds but no success to show for it let’s give a chaser a chance.
Selection - Wi Dud @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 6th June - 5.05 Epsom - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Good going on the round course judged on Friday’s times.
A low draw is an advantage but tactics play an important part in 6f races at Epsom. It is a tough ask to make all, but also I do not remember any horses coming from the back to win. Tracking the leaders is the place to be and David Nicholls achieved success with Onlytime Will Tell, Loyal Tycoon, Native Title and Gift Horse using just this tactic. The race is not blessed with exceptional pace. Cape Vale and Mac Gille Eoin will be at least close to the pace. Something used to front run but was successful held up at Kempton. Striking Spirit is a possible front runner but he has a very wide draw. The low draws are all hold up horses.
Selection - Mac Gille Eoin @ 11/2 (Skybet)
Saturday 6th June - 3.20 Musselburgh - 5f Heritage Handicap - Scottish Sprint Cup
A rather disappointing Heritage handicap, no doubt due to the Dash Clash. Don’t blame the BHA it must be down to Musselburgh Racecourse. The consolation race is especially weak and not worth analysing.
The exact state of the going will be important because some of these definitely go best on fast ground - Jaconet, Total Impact, Mandurah, Hitchens and Pavershooz. Whilst the going description says Good (Good/firm places) - watered, the Going stick at 7.2 suggests that the ground is on the easy side of Good.
The draw has not seemed that significant of late. Adrian on Masta Plasta will likely try to make all down the stand rail. Other prominent runners are Hamish McGonagall (17), Stolt (16), Mandurah (9) and Jaconet (6). I would not expect an especially fast pace with these involved.
Selection - Ishetoo @ 7/1 (Coral, Skybet)
The Week Ahead (7th June)
Sun 7th - Blank
Mon 8th - 3.45 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.00 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 9th - 8.45 Chester - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 10th - 3.40 Haydock - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 7.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 7.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 11th - 7.50 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 12th - 4.35 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 6.50 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
- 9.05 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Sat 13th - 3.25 Sandown - 5f Listed 3YO only - Scurry Stakes
- 4.00 Sandown - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.10 York - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Reg Griffin Trophy
- 5.25 York - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.40 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.05 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 14th - 3.40 Salisbury - 6f Listed - Cathedral Stakes
- 2.30 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Wednesday 10th June - 7.40 Hamilton - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Reported fast ground - Good/Firm (Firm places) GS 10.8 - watering. Light showers a possibility.
There will probably be little or no draw bias with the stalls are in the centre.
Not much pace in this race. I am struggling to find a front runner. Rasaman, who usually races prominently, Fishforcompliments who is a 7-9f horse who sometimes leads, and Maze are the most likely.
Dandy seems to have Blue Tomato in a good vein of form. 6f on fast going is ideal. He reached a peak to win this race last year off a mark of 83 and this evening races off the equivalent of 78 including the penalty. A guaranteed strong pace would help Blue Tomato but might help some of the opposition more.
Selection - Blue Tomato @ 11/2 (Stan James, Sportingbet)
Friday 12th June - 4.35 York - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Soft (Good places). GS 6.8
Pace from Le Toreador (14), Lochstar (1), and Equuleus Pictor (3). Kay Two, and possibly Jaconet, should be prominent.
Difficult to be certain that they will race as one group down the middle.
Sloop JohnB’s performance over course and distance four weeks ago was one of the more eyecatching by a 3YO sprinter this season. He seemed to finish the race full of running. Lochstar is also showing promise, but at the age of 5YO there is probably not as much scope for improvement.
On suitable ground Sloop JohnB should be backed until it is clear that the handicapper has caught up with him.
Selection - Sloop JohnB @ 5/1 (Stan James, Blue Square) NON RUNNER
With Sloop JohnB and three others withdrawn the race looks quite different. The first two races suggest that it is Good/Soft in the straight and the fastest strip is up the far rail. Low draws could be very advantageous if the jockeys have the nous to go there (It is always a mistake to assume jockeys will take advantage of an apparently obvious draw bias). Nevertheless the absence of Sloop JohnB increases the enthusiasm for Lochstar’s chance and from stall 1 he has the opportunity to make all again up a left hand rail. It is difficult to pass up the bet even at the rather restricted odds.
Selection - Lochstar @ 10/3 (Coral, Stan James, Betfred)
At 40/1 (Ladbrokes) King of Swords has a place chance. He will be able to chase Lochstar and Equuleus Pictor from stall 3 and goes well on Good/Soft. Just five weeks ago he was second to Tyrannosaurus Rex and Monday at Ponte he ran OK behind Mr wolf from a bad draw.
Friday 12th June - 9.05 Goodwood - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Good going.
The pace is a little problematic but Belles Des Airs has run her best races from the front.
Perfect Silence was backed like a good thing at Leicester but was firmly put in her place by Doric Lady and Mango Music.
Perfect Silence is favourite again but I think she was beaten fair and square by Doric Lady at Leicester beaten over three lengths, and now has only a 4lb pull at the weights. Doric Lady herself seems to be improving having won three of her last five races all for Milczarek. I liked the way she went past Mango Music at Leicester, and her and Perfect Silence are well ahead on my ratings.
Selection - Doric Lady @ 6/1 (Sportingbet)
Saturday 13th June - 3.10 York - 6f Heritage Handicap 3YO only - Reg Griffin Trophy
On Friday the going was Good/Soft and there should be plenty of juice in it on Saturday.
The fastest strip was almost certainly against the far rail, although the middle was the choice in the 5f sprint. Jockeys can drive you up the wall. The worst place looked to be close to the stand rail.
For me three of this field stand out as horses who will go on to better things. They are Master of Disguise whose Sandown form is extremely strong, Dark Mischief who should blossom when he gets plenty of ease in the ground, and Sloop JohnB.
Sloop JohnB looks like a typical 5f sprinter to me and it was a disappointment when he was taken out of Friday’s 5f race in favour of this. He has a good centre draw and if he stays 6f will be difficult to beat but I am going to swerve him until he proves that he stays. Master of Disguise would have been my choice with a good draw. However in stall 18 it is going to take him time to get into a good position and Adam Kirby is not very experienced in big field sprint handicaps, so plenty can go wrong.
Dark Mischief’s draw in 15 is not ideal but in the three stalls to his left are three of the most likely front runners Coleorton Choice, Proclaim and Prime Mood. So all being well he should be able to get a good tow into the centre of the track.
Selection - Dark Mischief @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)
Saturday 13th June - 3.25 Sandown - 5f Listed 3YO only - Scurry Stakes
Good (Good/Soft).
High draw best.
Noble Storm has the plum draw against the far rail and should be difficult to catch.
Selection - Noble Storm @ 7/2 (William Hill)
Saturday 13th June - 7.40 Leicester - 5f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
Fast Going.
Doctor Parkes comes from a good family of fast ground sprinters. Back on his favoured going he should continue the promising form shown at Chester.
Selection - Doctor Parkes @ 3/1 generally on track
Sunday 14th June - 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mass defections in this race with six non-runners.
Good going, and still drying out. Minimal draw advantage. The most likely front runner Legal Eagle (7).
Those drawn high could be struggling for a lead.
Baby Strange won last time off 90 and is only 2lb higher today. Last year he was beaten twice by a nose off 93.
Producing him with a long steady run on the outside seems to suit, and from that point of view he is ideally drawn today.
Selection - Baby Strange @ 7/1 (William Hill, Betfair)
The Week Ahead (14th June)
Sun 14th - 3.40 Salisbury - 6f Listed - Cathedral Stakes
- 2.30 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.30 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 15th - 7.30 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 16th - 3.05 Royal Ascot - 5f Group One - King’s Stand Stakes
- 5.10 Thirsk - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 17th - 7.50 Ripon - 6f Class 3 Handicap 3YO only
- 8.10 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap 3YO only
Thurs 18th - 7.10 Leicester - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Fri 19th - Pinpoint - 4.20 Royal Ascot - 10f Class 1 Listed Handicap - Wolferton Handicap
- Something - 5.30 Royal Ascot - 7f Heritage Handicap - Buckingham Palace Stakes
- 3.55 Redcar - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 8.20 Ayr - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 20th - 3.45 Royal Ascot - 6f Group One - Golden Jubillee Stakes
- 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Heritage Handicap - Wokingham Stakes
- 2.55 Ayr - 5f Fillies Listed - Land O’Burns Stakes
- 5.10 Ayr - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 3.50 Newmarket - 5f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 2.40 Newmarket - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.10 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sun 21st - Blank
Tuesday 16th June - 3.05 Royal Ascot - 5f Group One - King’s Stand Stakes
Good/Firm. GS 10.1 Watered. Some showers expected.
Stalls in Centre.
A certain amount of guessing, ie more than usual, is required here. American horse Cannonball and South African Mythical Flight are probably not good enough, though Mythical Flight could make a bold show. Australian Scenic Blast is the one that requires most of the guesswork. He is a hold up horse who sits out the back to halfway then weaves through the field to challenge. Not an easy thing to do on a fast track which his jockey has not ridden before and from an outside stall. If he has travelled well, acclimatised and he can run his usual race he will have every chance. It is a taller order than successfully achieved by Miss Andretti who was a flyer, and Takeover Target who was a straightforward front runner and successfull globetrotter.
Of the home contingent you can really only fancy Fleeting Spirit, Amour Propre, Borderlescott and Tax Free though something else often comes out of the woodwork in this race. Dandy Man for instance has run well in this race in the last three runnings and Equiano (first-time blinkers) won it last year. Spin Cycle has lots to find but may have more up his sleeve.
Fleeting Spirit’s supporters are gambling on her coming back to her Temple Stakes best. That was a rather flukey race run in huge record time on very firm ground with a strong following wind. Her other form is more like her decent 3rd place in the King’s Stand last year. Memories of Airwave come flooding back.
Tax Free is a tough customer who has won four of his last five races only beaten when his stamina ran out over 6f to Utmost Respect and King’s Apostle. Perhaps he is not quite good enough and not suited by the Ascot sand based turf.
Those who anticipated Amour Propre’s improvement were rewarded in the Palace House. He needs extra this time but I would be surprised if he cannot improve further and he has a running style which I like very much. It seems quite likely that we have not seen the best of him yet.
Robin Bastiman has said of Borderlescott that he has found more speed with age, that he is now suited by chasing the pace in a very fast 5f (eg the Temple and Nunthorpe runs) and that he is now more difficult to get fit needing lots of work and races. Whether he will be at 100% tomorrow is anyone’s guess but the probability is that he needed the races at Newmarket and Haydock, and was not suited by the modest pace in the heavy ground at Haydock either.
No Selection
Saturday 20th June - 4.25 Royal Ascot - 6f Heritage Handicap - Wokingham Stakes
Apart from the favourite High Standing, Something (who will not get in) and Sonny Red (who needs give) there are not really any obviously well handicapped horses in this years Wokingham. As ever in searching for the winner you are looking for that extra factor. One possibility is the use of a good claimer. In this regard one stands out. This is Freddie Tylicki (claims 5lb) who is down to ride Knot In Wood for the first time. Knot In Wood goes well for claimers and is suited by the big field handicaps. In 2008 he was 4th in the Wokingham and 6th in the Steward’s Cup, and 4th in the Ayr Gold Cup off his current mark, from which he also won at Kempton in October. His recent form is nothing special but his handicap mark has fallen 6lbs as a result. He started the season well with two 3rds in the listed Cammidge Trophy and Abernant Stakes.
Knot In Wood seems to be under the radar of many punters at the moment but the significance of Tylicki riding will probably not be missed for long. He has been available on Betfair for prices in the 40s and is still available with Bet365 at 33/1. He is only 16/1 with Ladbrokes and Betfred.
Ante Post Selection - Knot In Wood ew @ 33/1 (Bet365)
Unfortunately the high draws did not do too well in the final 2f yesterday and the low draw advantage lingers. The best pace is middle to low with Tamagin (9, effectively 7), Beaver Patrol (7), Carcinetto (12) and Nota Bene (13 effectively 10) amongst the most likely front rank. In the centre Osiris Way (18) could lead the other group. From Knot In Woods point of view Tylicki has now won too many races and his claim has just dropped to 3lb. Combined with what is probably now a poor draw and worse odds Knot in Wood is no longer the selection.
Genki would have been 2nd to JJ The Jet Plane at Windsor with a clear run. After a year off he has come back looking a very good horse yet is well handicapped having been dropped 2lb. For a horse who tracks the pace his draw (effectively 8) next to Tamagin and other pace horses is ideal.
Selection - Genki @ 11/1 (Betfair)
Saturday 20th June - 3.45 Royal Ascot - 6f Group One - Golden Jubillee Stakes
Whilst hoping that the home sprinters can find a winner from somewhere the two overseas stars Sacred Kingdom and JJ The Jet Plane set an extremely high standard. Sacred Kingdom has been the best sprinter in the world over the last two years but had remained in Hong Kong until a month ago. Then he travelled to Singapore where he beat local superstar and evens favourite Rocket Man, with the likes of Diabolical, Mythical Flight and Takeover Target well beaten off behind. From that you could conclude two things, that were both in doubt beforehand. Firstly that he travels well and secondly that he is as good as ever. The way he travelled and picked up in that race was a joy to behold.
JJ The Jet Plane looked the business at Windsor but most of the horses behind him would not have run close to their best and the rating given for his run by the likes of the Racing Post is higher than I would have given. As the most likely front runner, with Lesson In Humility now that Takeover Target is out, he will be there to be shot at.
If Stoute has got Kingsgate Native back to his best he will be a contender and probably best of the Brits.
Selection - Sacred Kingdom @ 10/3 (William Hill, Paddy Power, Sportingbet, Coral)
The Week Ahead (21st June)
Sun 21st - Blank
Mon 22nd - 3.15 Lingfield - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
- 7.40 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 23rd - 4.15 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Wed 24th - 5.15 Carlisle - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Fillies Handicap
Thurs 25th - 2.45 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 9.00 Hamilton - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 26th - 7.25 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
- 4.15 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Conditions Stakes
- 9.10 Newmarket - 5f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 27th - 2.05 Newcastle - 6f Group Three - Chipchase Stakes
- 2.35 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.35 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap - Totequadpot Handicap
- 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 6.35 Doncaster - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 28th - Something - 2.40 The Curragh - 6f Premier Handicap - Scurry Handicap
- 2.10 The Curragh - 5f Group Three - Sapphire Stakes
- 3.05 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap 6YO plus
Tuesday 23rd June - 4.15 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm going. High draw usually important.
Everymanforhimself has a good record at Beverley (3 wins and a third) but has always had a good draw. Today he has a poor draw. The pace should be good with Fol Hollow and Discanti likely to want to get on the far rail and Bo McGinty should be prominent unless the pace is very fast.
Namir is a stiff track specialist, has the plum draw and a feasible handicap mark 1lb higher than his last win. The winner will probably need some luck to get a gap in the final 1 1/2 furlongs. From these draws I just favour Namir, though he would have to be 5/1 plus to be a good bet.
Thursday 25th June - 2.45 Warwick - 6f Class 3 Handicap
A race of minimal appeal for betting purposes. 8 runners. 1 obvious front runner who is unlikely to get far enough in front to hang on. 1 horse apparently best suited by the conditions who is a short priced favourite.
Friday 26th June - 7.25 Newcastle - 5f Class 2 Handicap - Gosforth Park Cup
Good/Firm. The one mile handicap on Friday was fought out by the horses that raced hard against the stand rail, finishing in a good time (1.40 fast). The stand rail is often a big advantage and could be again if it is not upset by watering/rain. Having said that Buachaill Dona won last year from the far side hanging into the centre, and I remember Peace Offering coming right down the centre with me screaming to get over to the rail.
Assuming minimal rain the going should be too fast for Captain Dunne, and some others would prefer more ease - Buachaill Dona, Cheveton and Fathom Five. Total Impact is top of my ratings and will be suited by the conditions. Pavershooz may have more to offer now they seem to have found that his optimum is 5f. Hitchens will be suited by the fast ground and stiffer track, and seems OK at 5f whereas I had thought it would not suit him. He is back down to the mark from which he won the Windsor Heritage Handicap this time last year. He also has the plum draw in 17.
Update 9am
Apparently they are putting 5mm on the track this morning. So less predictable as to whether the easy ground horses will have enough juice in the ground and whether the stand rail advantage (as opposed to racing a few horses width off the stand rail) will still be there.
On reflection there is a probability that Hitchen’s plum draw won’t do him much good. In his last two runs he has raced in last place and it seems likely that he will not have the speed to take advantage.
Pavershooz is lightly raced for a 4YO sprinter and has the physique to progress. He has only gone up 4lb for the Heritage Handicap success at Musselburgh. The stiffer test at Newcastle should suit him even better, he stays 6f well. He is an uncomplicated ride and could be front rank or take a lead. The draw (stand rail, middle or far rail) could be crucial but we will only know that after the event. Pavershooz’s current price looks on the generous side to me. What is not to like apart from the watering?
Selection - Pavershooz 2pts @ 14/1 (Skybet, VC)
Friday 26th June - 8.05 Newmarket - 6f Class 3 Fillies Conditions Stakes
With Medicea Sidera out this race looks ripe for an upset. Cake is best at 5f. Mullein is best on AW/give so far though there is limited evidence to go on. Pretty Bonnie has not been at her best on fast going either. Raggle Taggle may be best at 5f.
Update
A great deal of rain at Newmarket. This changes things completely.
Saturday 27th June - 2.05 Newcastle - 6f Group Three - Chipchase Stakes
Whilst conditions were not bottomless at the end of racing yesterday they have had a little more rain and with drizzle forecast finding soft ground horses is the order of the day. The Clerk of the Course has gone from 5mm watering Friday morning to warning of possible Heavy ground. You couldn’t make it up !! Whilst he is clearly incapable of making rational judgements on balance we must expect the going to be around 0.7 or 0.8 secs per furlong slow.
War Artist, the forecast favourite, Tombi and Spin Cycle are out on account of the soft ground. The evidence suggests that all the others act on softish though perhaps only Knot In Wood and Pusey Street Lady are actually helped by the going. If it really goes testing then a 6/7f horse is what we need. To reduce the options a bit further I think that Arganil may be best at 5f and Fullandby is not ideally suited by a stiff 6f these days. Ancien Regime has been off for a long time and switching to Godolphin is unlikely to help any sprinter on past evidence. Pusey Street Lady could lead them along the rail although she tends to edge left.
Saturday 27th June - 2.35 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Drastically changed going is usually a good thing from a punting point of view if you know what the conditions really are. It often allows you to eliminate a lot of horses that are not suited by the conditions. This race however includes mainly horse that are fine on soft and a few who are suited by it - Baldemar, Tajneed, Van Bossed and Ponty Rossa. Ajigolo is the only withdrawal so far.
Despite a good pace to chase the far side were well beaten in the Gosforth Park Cup. The three strong centre group came 1st, 3rd and 4th. The 2nd raced hard against the stand rail until edging over to the others. This does not help us much as this field will probably race in two groups against the stand rail and down the middle. The most likely front runners are Tajneed (13) and Thebes (8)
Update
Atlantic Story is out.
Tajneed is drawn against the stand rail, is a front runner and has a 7lb claimer on board. Unless he goes too fast the claimer does not have a lot of scope to mess up (famous last words). Tajneed has an excellent record on soft going and after a break which is the situation today. The lack of good recent form is not an issue though whether Dandy would have sent him to Newcastle with a claimer on the forecast going expecting a good show is a matter is open to conjecture. Still you have to take maximum advantage when this sort of opportunity comes around, so here’s hoping.
Selection - Tajneed @ 10/1 (William Hill) and 8/1 after the withdrawals (PaddyPower, Betfred, Sportingbet)
Saturday 27th June - 3.15 Chester - 5f Class 3 Handicap
With two withdrawn this is down to eight runners of whom four are amongst the fastest front runners around - Foxy Music, Mr Wolf, Nickel Silver and Bertoliver (not as quick as when with Dean Ivory). In addition Legal Eagle and Impressible (sometimes) like to be up there. Will there be a pace bust up or a front runners truce?
Update
Now that Tyrannosaurus Rex is out a fresh review of this race is in order. Whether or not there is a front runners truce the false rail helps those following the leaders on the rail second or third rank. The most likely horses to be there are Legal Eagle and Impressible. Of these two I prefer Impressible who is an improving 3YO half-sister of Reverence. Unlike Reverence she seems fully effective on fast ground.
Selection - Impressible @ 4.6 Betfair
Saturday 27th June - 3.35 Windsor - 6f Heritage Handicap - Totequadpot Handicap
Fastish going and the stand rail is not a bad place to be today.
A difficult to race to analyse but the track and draw could have a significant effect on the result. Windsor races are a different proposition to the wide straight track top handicaps like the Wokingham. A good position and clear run are not that easy to achieve and everyone wants to be near to the stand rail.
Which is why to my surprise I am going for Tamagin. He naturally edges right and goes very well against a right rail. Just as at Newcastle he could be hard to overtake. Of course he has to get the rail in front, but if anything is going fast enough to lead him they are going too fast.
Selection - Tamagin @ 8/1 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday 28th June - 2.10 The Curragh - 5f Group Three - Sapphire Stakes
Soft going gradually drying out to Good/Soft by race time.
The Irish do not seem to have any 5f sprinters that can match the standard of British horses who tour Europe looking for Listed and Group 3 races. Top of the ratings are the British trio of Inxile, Benbaun and Captain Gerrrard. The best of the Irish horses are Snaefell, who is best over a testing 6f, and Miss Gorica who is also probably best over further.
Inxile is the obvious one. Not only is his form marginally the best but he is a young inexperienced horse who can only get better. He should be able to get to the front and dominate though Benbaun, Captain Gerrard and Judge N Jury are a threat to an easy lead. Competition for the lead, and his habit of wandering, are the main worries and anyone backing him at shortish odds should take these concerns into account. Benbaun goes well at The Curragh, and if it dries up a lot and he gets a flyer as at Longchamp then he would have every chance.
No Selection
The Week Ahead (28th June)
Sun 28th - Something - 2.40 The Curragh - 6f Premier Handicap - Scurry Handicap
- 2.10 The Curragh - 5f Group Three - Sapphire Stakes
- 3.05 Salisbury - 5f Class 4 Handicap 6YO plus
Mon 29th - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
- 4.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Tues 30th - 9.00 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 1st - 4.00 Catterick - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 2nd - 7.55 Epsom - 6f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.10 Haydock - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 3rd - 2.20 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 3.00 Doncaster - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
- 4.20 Warwick - 6f Class 4 Handicap 3YO only
Sat 4th - 2.05 Sandown - 5f Group Three - The Coral Charge
- 2.45 Beverley - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 4.05 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 4.35 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
- 5.10 Haydock - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Sun 5th - Blank
Monday 29th June - 3.45 Pontefract - 6f Class 3 Fillies Handicap
Good/Firm. GS 9.0
Eight runners now. Mango Music is the most likely front runner and All The Nines also races prominently.
6f, stiff track and fast going is right up Mango Music’s street. She won this race last year comfortably from a 1lb higher mark. She is also in good form, a 2nd to Doric Lady just failing to make all was followed by a win last time. The slightly wide draw is the only gripe.
Selection - Mango Music @ 4/1 (Sportingbet)
Thursday 2nd July - 7.55 Epsom - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Supposedly Good/Firm (Good in places) GS 8.9 though they water a lot at Epsom so it may be easier ground than that.
I don’t know what Merlin’s Dancer is doing in another 6f race but if allowed to stride on the pace will be strong. If not Mac Gille Eoin will lead and the early pace should be modest to average. To complicate things Noble Citizen sometimes front runs at 7f or 8f.
Baldemar may find the going on the fast side so the most likely two are Mac Gille Eoin, who goes very well at Epsom, and Benllech.
A six runner sprint is unlikely to throw up a good bet at acceptable odds. The shape of the race becomes less predictable whilst the odds of the horses with the best chances become too short.
Friday 3rd July - 2.20 Sandown - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Good/Firm (Good) with a certain amount of rain likely Friday am.
Stalls on the far side with no false rail, so a high draw advantage.
Update
Heavy rain overnight with the BHA website saying between 10-15mm. The going has been changed to Good.
Plenty of pace in the race from Cake, Sharpened Edge, Equuleus Pictor, and possibly Canadian Danehill, Elhamri and Jaconet who all tend to race prominently without needing to dominate.
This will be a tough race to win with four last time out winners and several others in good form. The rain will have improved the chances of some of them, in particular the favourites Equuleus Pictor and Sharpened Edge.
Sharpened Edge’s win over the same course/distance/going last time was very taking. Whilst the 3YO only race wasn’t particularly strong it is not easy to make all up the Sandown 5f and she managed it comfortably, responding well to pressure and going away at the end. The time was good. She comes from a good sprint family, is a late foal, and after only four races there must be plenty improvement to come. Even so she comes out well on the ratings on what she has done so far, and has a feasible highish draw.
Selection - Sharpened Edge @ 6/1+ Betfair or 11/2 (VC, Betfred, Skybet, Totesport)
Saturday 4th July - 2.05 Sandown - 5f Group Three - The Coral Charge
Good going. High draw advantage.
This is a tricky race even by Sandown 5f standards. The two favourites Triple Aspect and Ialysos are drawn high. This should be good but they are both likely to be outpaced early which could leave them with a difficult path to manoeuvre. The front runners are Masta Plasta, and possibly Captain Gerrard. Perhaps Masta Plasta will have a relatively easy lead?
Ialysos needed every yard at Haydock and only won because the front runners went too fast and Hoh Hoh Hoh challenged too early. He has yet to prove he is a likely Group winner imo.
Triple Aspect is clearly very talented but a difficult ride on the evidence of his 3YO Listed win. They went fast that day with even Noble Storm unable to get near the leader Jargelle. Triple Aspect only got on top in the final 50yds and his winning margin arguably flatters him. The holes in Triple Aspect may be exposed today.
If the favourites are vulnerable who will pick up the pieces. Masta Plasta is a possible if he can get to the rail with a minimum of effort. After Triple Aspect he is highest on my ratings. Anglezarke is the other obvious one. She is clearly progressing nicely. She ran a similar race to Ialysos at Haydock, whilst showing more pace, and stepped up on that in the King’s Stand finishing off both races well. If she can stay in touch on the rail she may be the one.
There are too many ifs here to take a short price.
Selection - Masta Plasta @ 11/1 (Blue Square, Stan James)
Saturday 4th July - 4.05 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
Conditions are expected to be on the fast side of Good. Therefore Icelandic is out.
Given a choice I would prefer a high draw.
Tombi is the obvious one on ratings and conditions. I am not sure where the pace is and I do not know enough about the 3YOs to know whether there is a danger there. Anyway Tombi is too short in the betting for any interest on my part.
No Selection
Saturday 4th July - 4.35 Haydock - 6f Class 2 Handicap 3YO only
At some point I would like to think that Dark Mischief is going to build on the undoubted promise of his Newmarket win. But that is unlikely to happen on anything other than easy ground imo.
I have no idea why Zuzu is favourite. She has been best on soft ground so far, and comes out poorly on my ratings. The second favourite Proclaim looks to be in the handicappers grip now.
If he was ridden by a savvy jockey (which he isn’t) and I was forced to have a bet I would go for Servoca to sneak a win down the stand rail, while the others raced up the centre.