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This betting blog will follow my fortunes through the 2009 season as I try to make some money betting on sprinters
Putting my analysis into the public domain is a way of making sure that I put the effort into analysising races and results which is necessary to make a profit. It is a high risk strategy but produced a profit in 2007 and 2008.
These days I bet mainly on Grades 1 to 3, occasionally Grade 4 if I know all the horses well. Most of the races will be handicaps. My records show that I do not make a profit on bets under 3/1, so there are unlikely to be any. The majority of bets are likely to be in the range of 5/1 to 12/1. At those odds if you can get one winner every six bets, on average, you are in profit. But of course the large majority of bets are losers and losing runs of 20 plus are not unknown. Such betting is not for the faint hearted. You need self confidence to continue with your methods regardless, knowing that your approach will come good in the end. There are no fun bets. No bets just because there happens to be a good sprint on. Bets at the start of the season are mainly on the older horses. Knowledge of the three-year-olds accumulates over the season.
If you are new to The Betting Blog you can find out more by looking at the Archive pages and the 2007 and 2008 Cumulative Results pages. The first archive page (Betting Blog Archive 1 2008) will give you an idea of how I approach the early weeks of the season. Lots of analysis but very little betting, unless something particularly tempting comes along. I will keep a Horses To Watch List going. Whilst such lists are of limited betting value it could be worthwhile to see how accurate the Post Mortem conclusions are over time.
I have decided that my selections over the past two years have not adjusted sufficiently to change. Firstly the 3YOs are much better handicapped now as they start their second season, and are winning many more All Age races, than say a decade ago. Secondly there is always a danger with my methods of allowing the ratings, that is past form, to dominate rather than to extrapolate the improvement you perceive in a horses physique and performance and give that sufficient weight. For example Judge n’Jury, a big powerful 4YO son of Pivotal, won seven races last season. Four of them were from September onwards at 7/1, 8/1, 11/2 and 13/2, with his able trainer of sprinters telling us all along he would reach Listed/Group class. I shall try to adjust in 2009.
The 2009 Flat Racing Season Starts Here :-
The 2009 Turf season looks to be starting with a few interesting and informative contests. The Cammidge Trophy is invariably worth close attention. Group winners, sometimes Group One winners, can be found lurking in the field. In 2006, for example, Les Arcs (Golden Jubilee and July Cup) won from Quito and Reverence (Nunthorpe and Haydock Sprint Cup). The year before it was La Cucaracha (Nunthorpe).
This year the classy Kempton meeting is very early and the two sprints look worth watching. Sunday’s Class 3 handicap at Doncaster is also likely to be a good pointer for horses to consider throughout the Spring. In contrast the Golden Shaheen is a gimme for the USA dirt sprinters, and has no relevance to anything else.
The Week Ahead (22nd March)
Sun 22nd - Blank
Mon 23rd - Blank
Tues 24th - Blank
Wed 25th - 9.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Thurs 26th - 7.50 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 27th - 8.50 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Sat 28th - 3.20 Doncaster - 6f Listed - Cammidge Trophy
- 2.25 Kempton - 6f Class 2 3YO All Weather Handicap
- 4.45 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
- 6.55 Nad Al Sheba - 6f Group One on Dirt - Golden Shaheen
Sun 29th - Something - 4.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
The Post Mortem Ones To Watch List
This list will form and develop over the first few months of the season.
We will start with some long range predictions (in dark type) just for fun, for ten-to-follow lists and the like. Then others will be added as performances make horses worthy of inclusion. (Greyed out horses will be those included then removed from list following later performances)
(Wealth Warning - Once the season is underway inclusion on this list will not necessarily be a recommendation to back these horses. That depends on what race they are in and many other factors)
A List
Overdose, Palace Moon, Utmost Respect (on soft), Noble Storm
B List
Dark Mischief, Fleeting Star, Laddies Poker Two, Lochstar, Master Lightfoot, Olympic Dream, Shifting Star, Something, Sonny Red,
Master of Disguise
Horses To Avoid
Matsunosuke (too high in the handicap for now. Needs a frantic gallop and fast ground)
Saturday 28th March - 3.20 Doncaster - 6f Listed - Cammidge Trophy
6pm Friday - The lack of appreciable rain and the predicted fast ground will have messed up a few plans. It would not surprise me if there are some withdrawals, as the connections of Against The Grain, Icelandic, Knot In Wood, Skhilling Spirit and Pusey Street Lady will have been hoping for going on the soft side. Not that it makes it that much easier to have even a tinge of confidence in a selection.
Tamagin will probably lead and edge over to the stand rail, though the lead may be contested with Inxile. The pace should be strong, and if it drops Pusey Street Lady and Beaver Patrol are usually close up and willing to front run also. Prime Defender is the class horse and will be favourite but has yet to be at peak fitness on his seasonal debut. He is currently best priced at 7/2, including on Betfair.
My preference would be for a handy runner drawn near the stand rail. Inxile and Beaver Patrol come into that category. Inxile has seemed better at 5f than 6f, and if the pace is strong he may struggle to get home. Beaver Patrol would be a bet with Mick Kinane in the saddle but less so with Steve Carson. The travelling and weather changes involved in the Dubai trip is also a bit of a worry. Quiet Elegance and Pusey Street Lady go well fresh, either could run into a place.
No Selection
Saturday 28th March - 4.45 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
This race is not worth analysing in any depth. Eight of the eleven runners have not raced since the last turf season and the three who have been running on the AW are all drawn low so will have their work cut out to get a reasonable position in the race. The Dandy Nicholls pair of Manzila and Regal Parade have the best draws and it would not surprise me to see some team tactics set it up for Regal Parade. There again it would not surprise me to see Regal Parade sat last and staying there.
No Selection
Sunday 29th March - 4.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
There appeared to be no draw advantage on Saturday. Conditions were quick, but mainly because of the wind rather than the going.
A nightmare of a race. 18 of the 22 runners are having their seasonal debut and although three of them have gone well fresh in the past they would probably all appreciate a little more ease in the ground. The most likely front runner is Bel Cantor, so a draw near that one may help. Everymanforhimself and Evens And Odds are other possible pacemakers. Joseph Henry, Good Gorsoon and Advanced will probably lie handy. I doubt if the pace will be that strong so a handy runner is preferred.
The lightly raced 4YOs are worth watching, Mullein (8 runs but best give so far) and especially Palace Moon (3 runs). Northern Fling popped up fresh and unfancied at Donnie in April to win a hot 5f handicap and gets in this on only 1lb higher. He had a couple of preps in Dubai showing promise in the second one. He and Palace Moon would be high on a very long short list.
No Selection
The Week Ahead (29th March)
Sun 29th - 4.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Mon 30th - Blank
Tues 31st - 2.40 Southwell - 5f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
- 3.15 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Wed 1st - 8.20 Kempton - 6f Class 4 3YO All Weather Handicap
Thurs 2nd - 3.20 Leicester - 6f Class 3 3YO Conditions Stakes
- 5.55 Kempton - 5f Class 4 3YO All Weather Handicap
Fri 3rd - 4.30 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Sat 4th - Blank
Sun 5th - Blank
Tuesday 31st March - 2.40 Southwell - 5f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
A low draw is best. Foxy Music will set a good gallop down the middle, with perhaps Rebel Duke and Ebraam the most likely to hunt him down.
No Selection.
The Week Ahead (5th April)
Sun 5th - Blank
Mon 6th - 3.50 Windsor - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 7th - Blank
Wed 8th - 2.30 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 4.20 Brighton - 6f Class 3 3YO Handicap
- 4.50 Brighton - 5.3f Class 4 Handicap
Thurs 9th - 2.40 Folkestone - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Fri 10th - Blank
Sat 11th - Something - 3.45 Kempton - 7f Class 2 All Weather Handicap
Sun 12th - 2.50 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Wednesday 8th April - 2.30 Nottingham - 5f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
Some overnight rain expected but the going is likely to be no slower than Good.
A useful field with four obvious contenders on ratings - Judd Street, Hoh Hoh Hoh, Strike Up The Band and the 3YO Rievaulx World. Of these Judd Street ran well in Dubai and again behind Arganil at Lingfield. Strike Up The Band ran well enough behind Arganil to suggest that he will not be long before showing his best. The choice seems to be between these two, although Rievaulx World could be a danger.
Selection - Strike Up The Band @ 4/1 generally
The Week Ahead (12th April)
Sun 12th - 2.50 Musselburgh - 5f Class 4 Handicap
Mon 13th - Blank
Tues 14th - 3.50 Yarmouth - 5.2f Class 3 3YO Handicap
Wed 15th - 3.10 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 5.55 Newmarket - 6f Class 2 3YO Handicap
Thurs 16th - 3.00 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Abernant Stakes
- 2.35 Ripon - 6f Class 4 3YO Handicap
- 4.55 Ripon - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.15 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Fri 17th - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 Handicap
- 4.15 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 8.50 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Sat 18th - 3.35 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
- 4.10 Thirsk - 5f Class 3 3YO Handicap
- 5.40 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 3YO Handicap
- 4.20 Naas - 5f Listed - Woodlands Stakes
Sun 19th - 5.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Wednesday 15th April - 3.10 Beverley - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The Beverley Clerk of the Course has to be added to the lengthening rogues list of manipulators of the going and draw advantage.
These strategies may make sense to the racecourses involved but they will kill punting as a thinking persons hobby requiring knowledge and skill. So when the going is described as Good/Firm [10.1] watering to maintain the alarm bells start ringing. As no flat racecourses need watering at this time of year.
Normally there is a big high draw advantage on the 5f course, and I expect there to be tomorrow, but it is best to wait to be sure. The 1.30 and 2.35 are 5f 2YO races which should provide useful information on the state of the going and any tampering of the draw advantage.
There seems a shortage of front runners for a field of seventeen 5f handicappers. Fol Hollow is best front rank if he can get there. Everymanforhimself can front run but usually tracks, and Bo McGinty is comfortable front running but does not have the speed to get in front very often at 5f. So if a fit 5f/6f horse can get to the far rail, in front, without expending too much energy there’s a good chance they may stay there.
Update around 2.45 pm
The times suggest Good/Firm going, or thereabouts, and a high draw seemed to be of some use, although in both of the 2YO races the runners came off the far rail. This was probably more to do with greenness and poor steering than a conscious decision.
Fol Hollow seems to have the right credentials, a good draw and a competent 7lb claimer who will just let him bowl along. So he is the selection.
Selection - Fol Hollow @ 7/1 (William Hill, Coral, Betfair)
Thursday 16th April - 3.00 Newmarket - 6f Listed - Abernant Stakes
With a brisk wind against the runners conditions were not that quick on Wednesday. There are four front runners in the race - Tax Free, Equiano, Angus Newz and Mac Gille Eoin. So with a strong pace expected staying the trip will be an issue. High draws on the far side track have helped at times in the past but the stats suggest that there is no draw advantage, and the best pace in this race is low rather than high.
The ones with the edge on form are - Equiano, Tax Free, Edge Closer and Zidane. It is difficult to choose between them. Each has its advantages and disadvantages.
Selection - Zidane @ 10/1 (Betfair)
Friday 17th April - 2.40 Newbury - 5f Class 2 Handicap
The going is currently being described as Good (Good/Soft) [GS 6.9]. Further rain is forecast and it is difficult to believe that the going will be any faster than Good/Soft by post time.
No draw advantage unless they edge over to the stand rail when it is slightly better to be high.
The pace should come from Angus Newz, with possible help from Elhamri and Holbeck Ghyll (sometimes held up) and should be average.
Oldjoesaid has an obvious chance. He won this last year with all the same circumstances - first time out, 102 mark, Good/Soft, Dane O’Neill. The fact that it is the Pricewise horse means that reasonable odds have been difficult to get. The best handicapped horse in the race is Sonny Red who is on my Horses To Watch list. I backed this in the Abernant last year when it was a close up 4th, only beaten a neck but he displayed (I think) a dislike of being to close to other horses, tending to run a bit in snatches. He goes very well fresh and likes easy ground best. My one worry about him is that he really needed 6/7f when with Hannon. His 5f Nottingham Conditions Stakes win was in my opinion well below the form of his Cammidge and Abernant runs and only achieved on Soft ground in the last gasp, having been outpaced. His ownership and the stable’s form are positive factors. We will see.
10 of the 14 runners are having their seasonal debut and most are unlikely winners for that reason. Cheveton looks high in the weights now. Green Manalishi goes well at Newbury and has had his moments on softish ground but he is considered to be best on a sound surface. Until he ran so very well over 6f on fast ground at Haydock I was sure that Chief Editor was a 5f soft ground horse. Until there is evidence to the contrary you have to now believe that 5f on this going will be a little too quick. Holbeck Ghyll, Fullandby and Crimson Fern are others for the short list. It is an interesting contest which is worth close attention for the future.
Friday 17th April - 8.50 Kempton - 6f Class 3 All Weather Handicap
Al Gillani was impressive last time, but he had the plumb draw, a perfect tow and his regular jockey George Baker. Things are different this evening.
Mullein and Mutamared have good draws, should get the nice tow this time and are reasonable alternatives.
Selection - Mullein @ 11/2 (Betfair etc)
Saturday 18th April - 3.35 Thirsk - 6f Class 3 Conditions Stakes
At first glance a four runner race with little appeal as a spectacle or for betting purposes. However the 6/4 favourite Knot In Wood has to give 7lb to horses of similar ability, he is not as effective on fast ground, goes best with the fast pace he gets in the big handicaps, and he had a fairly hard race in the Abernant only two days ago. Of course he won the day after finishing 4th in the 2008 Ayr Gold Cup so the quick return to the racetrack may be no disadvantage at all. However this is not the race I would have chosen for him.
Hitchens won first time out last season, goes well on fast and is flexible as to tactics. A disadvantage is that he is now with a new stable who may be feeling their way with him. Wi Dud can go well fresh, is possibly best with some ease and the Amy Ryan booking makes one wonder whether he is fully tuned up. Quaroma’s form is not at the same level but she is a 4YO Pivotal late foal who probably has plenty of improvement to come.
Put these elements together and you have an interesting little contest. They have all shown form on Good/Firm, but there is very little firm going evidence to go on and the ratings are quite close, so perhaps it is worth taking a chance with the outsider.
Selection - Quaroma @ 11/1 (five minutes before the off Skybet, Betfred etc)
Saturday 18th April - 4.20 Naas - 5f Listed - Woodlands Stakes
An English-Irish clash which is amongst the best Irish Listed races I recall over the last few years. Inxile, Benbaun, Reverence and Judge N’Jury represent a stern test for their best.
Update
The best of the Irish are Le Cadre Noir and Snaefell. Snaefell needs a very testing 5f or further. Le Cadre Noir is effective at 5f but has not struck me as particularly speedy. Benbaun is best on a sound surface and like Reverence is not the horse he was. So the choice is between Inxile and Judge N’Jury. Judge N’Jury started the season well at Lingfield, but his Fontainbleau sixth was a little disappointing, and he has a high draw whereas low is probably better at Naas. Inxile is well suited by conditions and I can see him becoming a selection if, as sometimes happens, the Irish back their own horses.
Selection - Inxile @ 4/1 (Betfair)
Sunday 19th April - 5.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
You have to be concerned that the David Nicholls pair will cut each others throats, that Icelandic will find this too sharp and that Stoneacre Lad is not good enough. Which leaves Rowe Park to appreciate the fast pace hopefully provided by Masta Plasta and Peace Offering.
Selection - Rowe Park @ 7/2 (Ladbrokes)
The Week Ahead (19th April)
Sun 19th - 5.10 Lingfield - 5f Class 3 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Mon 20th - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 3.20 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Fillies Handicap
- 4.50 Wolverhampton - 6f Class 4 All Weather 3YO Handicap
Tues 21st - 4.00 Folkestone - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 6.50 Bath - 5.7f Class 4 Handicap
Wed 22nd - 2.30 Epsom - 5f Class 3 Handicap
Thurs 23rd - Blank
Fri 24th - 2.35 Sandown - 5f Class 2 3YO Handicap
- 4.10 Wolverhampton - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
Sat 25th - 1.55 Leicester - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 2.20 Ripon - 6f Class 3 3YO Handicap
Sun 26th - 3.20 Navan - 6f Listed - Navan Sprint Stakes
Monday 20th April - 3.10 Pontefract - 6f Class 2 Handicap
This race is usually very competitive and informative for the remainder of the Spring, including for the 6f Heritage Handicap at the Guineas meeting. Not this year. The firm going seems to have cut up the field. What is left is mainly a mixture of horses having an ‘introductory’ seasonal debut and those that would have preferred easy ground but are running anyway. The possibles you can perhaps narrow down to Advanced (prefers some ease, big field, very strong pace), Invincible Force (best dominating, goes well on give but probably OK on firm), Thebes (usually close to the pace), Bel Cantor (very best give, dominating),and Obe Gold.
The only horse that seems ideally suited by the smallish field, fast ground, likely fast pace and is in form is Obe Gold. His Beverley run over an inadequate 5f from a poor draw was very promising for just these conditions. Unfortunately other punters know this too. The early price of 3/1 was not exciting and he has since shortened to 11/4. Should his odds lengthen he may be a reasonable bet.
Selection - Obe Gold @ 10/3 (Sportingbet, Betfair)
Wednesday 22nd April - 2.30 Epsom - 5f Class 3 Handicap
The going is described as Good. Going Stick 7.9 and a dry warm day forecast.
The best place to be is still against the stand rail, but the draw advantage does not seem to be as significant as it once was.
As always in 5f sprints at Epsom some of the quickest horses around are in the field. If you are in front of Merlin’s Dancer or Bertoliver you are going much too fast. Other prominent runners in the field include Cake, Wotashirtfull, Van Bossed and Kay Two. Most of these are in the low half of the draw and the probability is that they will move across towards the stand rail tightening up the high drawn runners, who may get shuffled back as a result. Consequently I think a draw in the middle might be the optimum given the way the pace is spread.
The ones with good recent form are Supermassive Muse, Rebel Duke, Wotashirtfull and Whiskey Creek. Ebraam has also run close to his best recently and Merlin’s Dancer has also shown some form. Kay Two goes well fresh and was second, beaten a short head, in this race in 2007 first time out.
If they go too fast early then a hold up horse will probably win, if it can get through the pack. In my opinion Supermassive Muse is the most likely in that event. If on the other hand there is a front runners truce, as sometimes happens when a field is packed with front runners, then one of the speedsters should have it. The most likely of these could be Bertoliver, in view of his new trainer’s excellent record of getting his older horses 100% for their seasonal debuts. Bertoliver is 2lb below his last winning mark, which was in a Class 2 handicap at Chester. He was born to win on sharp tracks, and there are none as sharp as Epsom.
Selection - Bertoliver @ 10/1 (Blue Square, Betfred)
Friday 24th April - 2.35 Sandown - 5f Class 2 3YO Handicap
A race to record and play back in the weeks and months to come, if last year’s example is anything to go by.
Going on the fast side of Good. If there is no false rail then a high draw is best.
The two progressive ones which take the eye are Brenin Taran and Affluent. Affluent showed greenness at Kempton, missing the break and taking a while to get organised. She moved through pleasingly to challenge but perhaps ran out of puff inside the final furlong as the winner seemed to find a bit more. Affluent should come on plenty for that. BTs win at Thirsk was impressive up until the point he was asked to go and win it, when he seemed to struggle on the firm ground and take a while to get on top. He travelled very nicely up to that point and the stiff Sandown 5f with a little more juice could be what he needs. The ratings I have suggest that Affluent is the best treated, but they are not at all reliable for 3YOs at this time in the season. Master of Disguise is another who may have plenty of improvement in him, but he seemed to appreciate easy ground last year.
If Affluent were to get to 4/1 or bigger she would be a bet.
Post Mortem
Affluent did not reach 4/1. Which is just as well as she missed the break by two lengths and gave herself a mountain to climb.
A high draw was important, so poor performances from the low drawn runners should be forgiven.
You have to be impressed with the way Master of Disguise won the race and the confidence behind him, including a professional gamble from early morning double figure prices down to 3/1jf. He is obviously one to follow until it becomes clear that the handicapper has him. If anything Noble Storm is of even more betting interest for the immediate future. Racing very keenly he showed excellent speed to lead from a poor draw. You would expect a horse running like that on it’s seasonal debut to blow up badly, but he kept on very strongly to finish three lengths clear of Affluent, and Able Master who did not get a clear run. The first four here will all be of interest as the handicapper will not be able to raise the handicap ratings to the extent they deserve (about 18 lbs in Master of Disguise’s case !!). Over a flat or sharper 5f Noble Storm will be difficult to beat on this evidence. Affluent needs a positive ride from the stalls or she may continue to miss the break.
Postscript - The handicapper raised Master of Disguise 10 lbs and Noble Storm 3lb.
Sunday 26th April - 3.20 Navan - 6f Listed - Navan Sprint Stakes
Three English raiders, Masta Plasta, Abraham Lincoln and Wi Dud against a couple of Irelands best.
The going has apparently turned Soft which is in the home runners favour. Masta Plasta may find these conditions a touch too testing, especially if he is taken on by Jumbajukiba. Wi Dud will win one of these Listed sprints sooner or later and I expect him to run much better than he did at Thirsk.
The extra rain brings Jumbajukiba into it. He is the class horse in the race.
Selection - Jumbajukiba @ 5/1 generally.
Post Mortem
There was no intention of backing anything in this race until I watched and timed the race before. Then it became clear that conditions were very testing, bordering on heavy ground. For that reason the performances of Masta Plasta and Wi Dud should be discounted for future races. What was needed was a 7f soft ground horse here. Masta Plasta in particular is a speed horse who should give a good account in suitable conditions soon, and Wi Dud looks on track to win an easy listed or conditions race.
The Week Ahead (26th April)
Sun 26th - 3.20 Navan - 6f Listed - Navan Sprint Stakes
Mon 27th - 4.20 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
- 6.40 Southwell - 5f Class 4 All Weather Handicap
- 7.40 Southwell - 6f Class 4 All Weather 3YO Handicap
- 6.55 Windsor - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Tues 28th - 5.05 Bath - 5f Fillies Listed
Wed 29th - 4.30 Ascot - 6f Listed 3YO - Pavilion Stakes
- 8.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Thurs 30th - 4.15 Redcar - 5f Class 4 Fillies Handicap
Fri 1st May - 4.05 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
- 3.20 Lingfield - 6f Class 3 3YO All Weather Handicap
Sat 2nd - 3.50 Newmarket - 5f Group 3 - Palace House Stakes
- 3.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
- 5.45 Goodwood - 5f Class 3 Handicap
- 4.50 Thirsk - 5f Class 4 Handicap
- 7.15 Doncaster - 6f Class 3 Handicap
Sun 3rd - 3.50 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap - Stan James Handicap
- 2.15 Salisbury - 6f Class 2 3YO Handicap
Monday 27th April - 4.20 Newcastle - 6f Class 2 Handicap
Fast going despite some watering and forecast light rain. The stand rail is usually favoured on this going and with this size field.
Plenty of pace in the race. Tamagin and Captain Dunne are fast front runners, and Celtic Sultan and Thebes also front run. As Captain Dunne is best at 5f, on easy ground and is having his seasonal debut it would be no surprise to see him ridden off the pace this time. However with Tamagin and Celtic Sultan almost certain to try to dominate, at least early, I can only see a fastish pace. This could suit the hold up horses, and Barney McGrew certainly fits into that category. Thebes is likely to stay on to the finish, as he did at Pontefract. Sunrise Safari is dangerously well handicapped now, 15lb below this time last year and 3lb below his last winning mark. Celtic Sultan could also be well handicapped, now 10lb below his winning mark at Chester last May. Valery Borzov has dropped to the same mark as when beaten a head in the Great St Wilfred, and Excusez Moi won that race in 2006 off a stone higher mark. So plenty of horses who are potentially well-in to take on the ones with good recent form. A chance to find an underestimated one, as Patrick Veitch might put it?
Tom Tate’s horses have a good record fresh and Celtic Sultan won first time out last year. He is equally effective at 6f and 7f and uncomplicated in that he is a front runner, but has run just as well chasing the pace. He is seriously underestimated in the betting market due to his poor form in the second half of last season. Also because this is his seasonal debut and some punters may think that he needs 7f or to dominate. At 14/1, and with this horse and trainer, it is worth disagreeing with these negatives.
Selection - Celtic Sultan @ 14/1 early morning price (William Hill, VC, Skybet, Betfred etc)
Post Mortem
The only place to be in this race was hard against the stand rail. Unfortunately Celtic Sultan missed the break and thereon was forced to race away from the rail. The three horses who fought out the finish all raced against the rail with the front runner, Tamagin just prevailing. Thebes looked likely to overhaul him but when he came off the rail he was running on slower ground. Sunrise Safari was well backed at morning prices, hugged the rail third rank and nearly caught Tamagin at the post.
This is not a race to take much notice of from a form point of view.
Tuesday 28th April - 5.05 Bath - 5f Fillies Listed
Good (Good/Firm) going (GS - 9.2). Despite the possibility of showers it should still be reasonably fast ground.
A large field early season fillies listed race is not a betting medium to be very confident about. Look Busy is by some way the best of these, but she won a Group 3 last year. Will she be tuned up to win a listed race this early in the season? It seems unlikely.
Looking for the one who will be going all out for this race may be the key. Malcolm Saunders is the local trainer and won this race twice with Indian Maiden. I think that he will have been planning this target for Crimson Fern for a considerable time. After two prep races and leading the field into the final furlong at Newbury, she should be spot on. There are several threats but in this case I think this different approach to making a selection is the way to go.
10/1 was available to small money early, but that was quickly mopped up. 9/1 is a very good price.
Selection - Crimson Fern @ 9/1 (generally)
Wednesday 29th April - 4.30 Ascot - 6f Listed 3YO - Pavilion Stakes
A race to analyse and watch carefully rather than bet on. There are far more questions than answers about the better 3YO sprinters this early in the season. Though the step back to 6f and faster ground should suit Nasri in particular.
No Selection
Wednesday 29th April - 8.50 Kempton - 6f Class 4 All Weather Conditions Stakes
Unfortunately only five runners and two of those have been off the track for two seasons. Diriculous and Eisteddfod are probably the ones to concentrate on, but will be too short a price to bother with.
No Selection
Friday 1st May - 4.05 Musselburgh - 5f Class 2 Conditions Stakes
With some rain on the way it is probably best to assume, for the time being, Good going rather than faster.
There is little draw advantage at Musselburgh these days.
Desert Lord is out. Of the main contenders this leaves two seasonal debutants Hamish McGonagall and Spin Cycle against three horses in very good early season form - Cheveton, Fol Hollow and Pawan. There is nothing in the debutants form thus far to suggest that they will start the season firing at 100%. So the choice is between the other three.
Cheveton has not run on fast going, though after his first win the connections were quoted as saying he would want a stiff 5f on fast ground. I do not know about that, but if the rain arrives conditions should be OK. Overall I think a stiff 5f is better than a sharp 5f for him. That comment could equally apply to Pawan, on whom Ann Stokell cannot claim. Fol Hollow is a front runner who can stay 6f, so if he can get to the front he is hard to pass, and that was the case in Ireland last time. With Desert Lord out, FolHollow is the most likely front runner, though Hamish McGonagall often forces the pace as well. The first few strides out of the stalls could be critical in that respect. Spin Cycle is usually waited with. River Falcon will probably find this a bit sharp, and at 9YO his best years may be over.
It is a difficult puzzle but I prefer Cheveton and Fol Hollow to the others.
Update - Conditions are quicker than seemed likely. This should suit Fol Hollow and he has been backed into joint favouritism.
There is no edge in the market now.
No Selection
Saturday 2nd May - 3.50 Newmarket - 5f Group 3 - Palace House Stakes
Quick conditions with a breeze behind. Good/Firm. GS 9.1
3YOs have a very good record in this race considering the small number that run in it. Mind Games (4/1), Deep Finesse (14/1), Yorkie’s Boy (15/2), Dandy Man (25/1) and Captain Gerrard (15/2) have won it since 1995. Two wins from four runners in the last three years. Apart from Mind Games none of them was really fancied to win it either. So Amour Propre deserves carefully consideration. He has great speed having lowered the Warwick and Bath 2YO 5f records and won the Cornwallis.
I don’t really see Borderlescott running close to his best figures, first time out and in quick conditions. Dandy Man had a poor 2008 apart from one good effort at Royal Ascot. It seems that Godolphin do not know how to bring him back to his best. Not once have they used optimum tactics on fast ground. Chief Editor will likely find conditions too fast for him. Fat Boy is a front running 6f horse who will probably be required to go a stride too fast. Strike The Deal will also find things happening quickly.
Which all leads me to the conclusion that the race is wide open and may well fall to Amour Propre, who is trained by one of the best sprint trainers around. Henry Candy has the currently injured Corryborough, Oldjoesaid and Dark Mischief yet has been quoted as describing Amour Propre as “a very, very fast horse and deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Kyllachy and Airwave”.
Selection - Amour Propre @ 11/2 (Coral)
Saturday 2nd May - 3.30 Goodwood - 6f Class 4 Handicap
Good going. GS 8.6
Having done well as a 2YO and won a soft Listed race at 3YO Dazed And Amazed went up much too high in the handicap ratings. He continued to run well at 3YO without getting close to the winner’s enclosure. Last year the stable seemed to lose their way with him and he plummeted down the ratings as a result. Confidence is now restored and he has a good patient jockey on his side. However the betting public may need some convincing that the revival in form is anything more than temporary. Personally I do not see any reason why he cannot be competitive in handicaps from marks of around 90. At present he is on 82, only 2lbs higher than when winning at Bath. Second in that race was Blue Jack, a well backed favourite who travelled smoothly, and looked the winner until you saw behind him Dazed And Amazed travelling even better.
Peter Island was mightily impressive at Leicester, but had firm going and was able to dominate up the rail. With Goodwood’s obsession with producing Good going, by overwatering, it seems unlikely that he will have the very sound surface he needs to produce that beautiful long smooth stride.
Rash Judgement did well from a poor draw at Folkestone. He is often well backed, but I remain to be convinced that he is any better than the bare form of that run. Behind him from the next stall was Aye Aye Digby. He was niggled along from early on confirming that he is pushed to go 6f pace on an average track. Both of these should help to make the market for Dazed And Amazed.
The draw on the outside near to Peter Island is another plus for Dazed And Amazed. Idle Power is out.
Selection - Dazed And Amazed @ 13/2 (Skybet, Paddy Power)
Sunday 3rd May - 3.50 Newmarket - 6f Heritage Handicap - Stan James Handicap
Good/Firm. GS 9.1 No draw advantage.
Quite fast conditions with a strong breeze behind. This should suit horses racing close to the pace. As should the relative lack of fast front runners. Thebes tends to race front rank though isn’t particularly quick. Mac Gille Eoin usually races front rank without trying to dominate. My Gacho used to be a front runner, but these days usually chases the pace. Evens And Odds has been ridden prominently, eg in the Abernant last year, but is usually in mid div these days, as he was at Doncaster, with no headgear now either.
Carleton is extremely well handicapped on two pieces of form including one in which he chased home Prohibit over course and distance last May. A repeat of that, off 7lb lower, would make him hard to beat. As is often the case with his trainer though, the good runs appear as if by magic out of a sea of dross, with few statistical or other clues as to the good performances. Whatever, if I am correct on the pace angle, he will probably have too much ground to make up.
Shifting Star was very progressive in mid season as a 3YO and is one of the 4YOs who could move on to better things. Exclamation is perhaps the other one who most strikes as a likely improver. After only six races and following a promising 4th in the Abernant there should be more to come, but he is already rated 100 which gives him a tough task in the best handicaps.
MacGille Eoin has a good profile for this race. He is back on his last winning mark (93). His best run last season was second time out when he won the 6f handicap on Derby Day. He also ran well to finish 5th in the Steward’s Cup off 100. He is better suited by fast conditions and does well racing prominently. His ‘prep’ seasonal debut in the Abernant was encouraging, in that he showed bright speed for 4 1/2 furlongs before tiring. In an extremely difficult race, even by sprint handicap standards, he will do for me at 25/1 with Damika and Steelcut out.
Mac Gille Eoin @ 25/1 (Paddy Power, Betfred, Stan James)
Sunday 3rd May - 2.15 Salisbury - 6f Class 2 3YO Handicap
Dark Mischief is on my list of horses to watch for the season and won well last time. However to me he looked to have an issue with the fast ground (GS 8.6) at Newmarket, and for a while his win was in doubt as he hung a bit. His action really requires some ease in the ground so even though it is an uphill track I think that taking a short price at Salisbury is very dodgy. The going is described as Good/Firm (Firm in places) (GS 9.6) with a dry day and drying wind in prospect. It could be very quick by post time.